Spring 2026: Week 5

 Opening Weekend at Monmouth

Monmouth opened this weekend and I scored at a better than 40% clip with a nice profit.  It was also Mother's Day weekend!  From start to finish it was a good weekend.  Had a good day Saturday.  Sunday I had bookend wins to largely preserve the winning average and profits and on Mother's Day made my wife feel special, and my own mom & mother-in-law, and reached out and heard from my favorite gal-pal moms.  When I first handicapped the card at Monmouth for Saturday, the first race was a head scratcher, a cheap two-lifetime two-turn route.  Six of the seven had dismal records of 1-for-12, 1-for-12, 1-for-19, 1-for-17, 1-for-7, and 1-for-22.  I list these because it was partly why I landed on Duck Duck Goose who had been out fewer times.  I noted that I nearly always make Beyer figures a key part of the selection process, but 'Goose was multiple lengths "too slow" AND had never been two turns.  But there was perennial leading rider Paco Lopez for long-time trainer partner Kelly Breen.  Strictly a "Paco Pick" listed at 6/1 in the program.  In the early betting he was hammered to 6/5.  The gates opened and Paco sent him right to the front.  Took pressure to the far turn.  The odds flashed up and he'd floated all the way up to 3/1.  Hit the top of the lane and drew off in hand.  Paco at $8.40 and I'm cashing for over $40 to start the Jersey Shore summer.  Oh wow.

After passing on the next three selections I had doubled the bet on Arizona Territory in an entry level allowance for 3yo's on the turf.  This was a good example of the adage in handicapping, "The rule is, there are no rules."  Rarely will I take a last out maiden winner against winners for the first time.  But in this case, Chad Brown's colt had been shuffled back at the start, checked at the 3/8th pole and STILL won going away.  Was also the DRF best bet.  Patiently handled near the back to the turn and then blew by as easily best.

Was 4th at 9/5 in Monmouth's third before rattling off three in a row.  Skyro edged clear at 2/1 over the Churchill strip.  Clean Winner took a ton of money late - including my triple investment - and ran off as the odds-on choice in Monmouth's fourth; then Divided Recap was up in time at 2/1 in New York.

Back to reality as I missed on four straight - two as odds-on favorites.  Two in Louisville and one each at Monmouth and Belmont at Aqueduct.  Bounced back when Cairo Surprise went right to the front and never looked back.  I guess it figured, but the race was an entry level, restricted race - for non-winners of a Jersey-bred allowance.  Cairo Surprise had not only won an OPEN entry level, but an open 2nd level.  Still, hammered to 1/9?  But ran like it.  Not much of a profit - fifty cents to be exact LOL - but certainly padded the win percentage :)

Missed the next three including the Jersey Shore finale where EVERYTHING pointed to Paco's horse, Mr. Sophistication.  But only second best at 4/5.  Got a nice bounce back at Churchill in their ninth, a third level allowance.  Tiztastic had last won in the Grade 2 $1 Million Louisiana Derby a year ago. After that they tried him on turf.  Pretty clear he doesn't like it.  Off the bench he pressed the pace in a Keeneland turf route to the turn before weakening.  I thought the return to the dirt would be a big boost.  Ran away and at a nice 9/2 price allowing me to cash for over $55! 

The national feature was the Grade 3 Peter Pan, typically the prep for the Belmont.  Before Belmont Park underwent renovations this nine furlong race was an extended one-turn event.  Now with the Belmont Spring meet at Aqueduct, it's a two turn event.  Chad Brown's lightly raced Growth Equity looked "best" of a group of 3yo's that most likely will not threaten for the Belmont.  In fact Growth Equity was exiting his maiden score....going a one-turn mile.  What does that tell you about the field?  Patiently sat in fourth through the far turn.  Swung four wide into the lane to catch the leader.  Dueled to the furlong marker and then drew off as much the best.

After running a good second at 5/1 in the Churchill feature (my second choice won, sigh), I had one last winner.  Arkhipov had the recency edge of the two Chad Brown runners in the BAQ finale, an entry level allowance going two turns on the grass.  Settled near the back to the turn.  Picked off horses one by one, fanned four wide into the lane and drew off past the 16th pole.  Finished the day a good 9-for-19 with a clear profit.  Whoooo hooooo.

Sunday, surprisingly I had a bet in all eight races.  The first three figured to be odds-on and very likely winners.  Sure enough, in the opener Admiral Mo was clearly best as the heavy favorite.  But the next two finished 2nd and 3rd at very short odds.  Was off the board in the four that followed.  In the finale it just seemed "right" that top jockey Paco Lopez would win the last race, since he'd won the first race of opening weekend.  I had a "Bet Back" $5 on my TwinSpires account for a free bet so I wagered that free money along with my own $10.  Tracked the leader into the lane.  Got on even terms and dueled to the 16th pole before edging away.  Cashed for over $40 (thanks to the "Bet Back") and closed the day nearly even. 

For the weekend I finished 11-for-27 with a profit of more than $50.  I'd ordered flowers for my girl, my adorable wife Kim.  As well as for her Mom who's been staying with us for the past month.  We had a good day together and went out Monday for dinner.  I also reached out to my five favorite other gal-pal Moms and wished them a Happy Mother's Day.  And I was rewarded to have text/message conversations with them all :)

Spring 2026: Week 5

 Derby Week

It's become a week-long festival in Louisville and while I was still in South Florida, I joined in on the extended five days of racing action from Churchill Downs.  The best and most profitable decision I made for the entire week came before the racing action even started.  Several years ago I used to play the races on Xpressbet during the winter because racing is at Gulfstream Park and I could build my rewards points there when I was both at the track and when I was playing from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center."  But once the Championship Meet concluded I would play on TwinSpires.  LONG ago that was because I when I went to the races it was at Calder Race Course, owned by Churchill Downs.  But when Calder closed I stopped using my Twin Spires account.  Then about five years ago I got an email from TwinSpires inviting me to return.  I communicated with a guy and explained it didn't make sense to split my rewards points on two platforms.  He offered an enhanced rewards system for me so I started using them again in the nine months that racing wasn't at Gulfstream in the winter.  Then about two years ago I noted my rewards were no longer kicking in.  I inquired and was informed that special offer had expired.  So every since I play strictly on Xpressbet.  I keep the TwinSpires account because I like how they do their video feeds, and on rare occasions I do bet through that platform for "fun bets."  I got an email that ALL WEEK long if you played on TwinSpires they were offering a "Bet Back" promotion if you ran second or third.  Because I knew I would only be playing Churchill Downs I opted to play all week through them.  By the end of the week I'd played nearly forty races and while I did win a dozen of them, I finished 2nd or 3rd in fourteen other races.  Had I played through Xpressbet I would have finished the week with a small loss of just over $20.  But the "Bet Back" promotion put an additional $105 in my account, so at the end of tive days I was up over $80!  Wise decision young man!

Racing started early on what Churchill Downs labels as "502'sDay."  The card had nine with races with a first post of 12:45pm.  As I had handicapped the card I was making a conscious effort to look for "good bets" not just bets on horses that MIGHT have a chance.  So I wasn't all that surprised that the first five races drew a "PASS" from me.  The sixth race - two hours after the first one opened the card - was a non-winners of two lifetime turf route.  Gene and Jude had enough going for him at this $30K level to warrant the small investment.  Claimed a year ago by Mike Maker he'd consistently shown early lick vs. better and his last win came when jockey Flavian Prat was on board, as he was today.  Tracked the 40/1 front runner to the turn, blew by and drew off easily!

I only had three bets total on the day and in the second one I liked Owen Almighty, who had been an early 2025 Derby horse of mine.  At a critical moment in mid-stretch he was squeezed and checked, then re-rallied to be second.  Unfortunately the stewards ruled that the culprit was the third place finisher and did  not take down the winner :(  But I got my first "bet back."  In Race 9, the 502'sDay feature (a second allowance turf sprint) it looked to me to be all about Bacio.  He was lightly raced and sent out by Wesley Ward.  Right to the front and never was in danger wiring the field.

The second day of the racing week was WinsDay and I had five picks on the day.  The day began with an "interesting" discovery.  In the past the "Bet Back" promotions on TwinSpires meant just that.  Within an hour or so of the race your money was refunded.  THIS promotion however gave you a betting credit.  So in order to use it you'd click the promotion button to "use" it and then make your bet.  I discovered the hard way that if you make a $5 bet with a $10 "Bet Back" promotion, you lose the $5 you didn't "spend." it.  In the opener, a $16K one-turn mile, Empire Builder looked best on the drop.  Went right to the front and ran off by nearly a dozen lengths, oh my.  Clear all the way to the wire.

Passed the second and in the third it was a 2yo MSW.  Towards the end of the Keeneland meet the "better" Ward two-year-olds had run, or so it seemed.  So when Ruiva was entered here I initially had my doubts.  But as I noted several times last week, you have to use all the "tools" at your disposal and when DRF analyst Marcus Hersch commented, "...she looks....VERY fast...." that was more than a simple "she looks fast" kind of comment.  I tripled the bet.  Rocketed out of the gate, immediately cleared by open lengths and walked with it.  The best part, she went off at better than 2/1 odds and I cashed for over $50!!!!

Nothing in the fourth or fifth.  The sixth was the first stakes of the week, the Kentucky Juvenile.  Wesley Ward's Waggley - who I'd had on debut - looks extremely talented.  The field was decimated by scratches down to just three at post time.  She broke last, ran into trouble, got to the outside and STILL ran off late :)  The 1/9 post time price meant the $15 bet netted a return of just $15.90.  Better than throwing the ticket on the ground I guess :)

Missed in the 8th where I led into the lane at a big 8/1 price before fading to ninth.  The finale was the mile and a half Issac Murphy Stakes.  Two runners looked, on the surface "equal" but Parchment Party looked to have much more upside.  Was well back through the first two turns.  Moved up to challenge into the lane.  A three-horse battle developed before he edged clear late.  And just like that I was 3-for-4 on the day with a $60 plus profit!

Coming off the big day Wednesday I began the Thurby card by running third at even money.  There were not enough runners in the field for it to qualify as a "Bet Back" race.  A scratch in R2 and then four consecutive "PASS" races brought me to the seventh, a MSW turf route.  I thought that Honfleur was solid.  Only two turf tries but both Beyers were tops on the page.  In her first turf test she was a sharp second.  And in her latest the winner kept her pinned on the rail without a chance to run until too late.  Today she broke on top and after she walked through an early opening half mile in just :49 I knew I had an awfully good chance.  Rolled home impressively carrying my triple investment.

In the next three I ran 4th at 5/2 then back-to-back "Bet Back" efforts when 2nd in the Opening Verse Stakes and 2nd again in the St. Matthews Overnight Stakes.  That brought us to the feature, the Grade 3 Mamzelle for 3yo turf sprinters.  Cy Fair won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and was my choice in the Grade 3 Limestone a month ago at Keeneland.  But she'd broke on top, ran too fast and faded in the final yards to finish a close third.  I anticipated a more measured ride today.  Sat patiently behind a trio of embattled front runners then swung four wide into the lane.  Dueled with the leader to the 16th pole and drew clear.  WITHOUT the bet backs I was a profitable 2-for-6, but with them I had another comfortably good day.

Kentucky Oaks Day - Friday

So, as you can see, heading into Oaks Day I'm having a really good week!  And then the racing gods decided it was time for a reality check.  Of the eleven selections I had on Oaks Day I ran 2nd FIVE times - oh how lucky to have the "Bet Back" promotion working today.  The lone win came in the Grade 3 Edgewood on the turf for three-year-olds when Imaginationlady was J-U-S-T in front in a four way photo finish across the wire.  WOW.

Kentucky Derby Day - Saturday

Well the disappointment of Oaks Day was quickly replaced by a more successful Derby Day.  A "tradition" over the last several years for Kim and I is to head to Gulfstream on Kentucky Derby Day.  Have an early lunch, bet the Derby and come home to watch the big races.  So we did - and as you can see I got a mint julep in a souvenir Derby glass :)

I missed the first three races while we were there so when we got home I watched the replays to catch up.  In the opener Powershift was destined to be short odds in this MSW event.  Two back he'd been second to Emerging Markets.  That colt exited that debut win to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and was one of the favorites for today's Kentucky Derby.  Last time out, as a maiden, Powershift ran in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.  He was easily best and in spite of the evidence in the Form he went off at even money!

Two fourth place finishes sandwiched around a third (Bet Back!) led me to the Knicks Go Stakes in Race 6.  Tour Player was the choice.  On the first run through I leaned towards a runner who had an inside draw and looked like the lone speed.  But on second run through I thought maybe, just maybe he'd get pressure and so I turned to Horse-for-the-Course Tour Player who boasted four wins from five starts over the Louisville strip.  He tracked the dueling leaders - good call Mark! - to the turn.  Swept by and opened up.  He paid almost $9 and I'd tripled the bet.  Cashed for over $65 - the "day maker" play of the day!

Was second (Bet Back!) in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile and then they headed to the gate for the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile.  Two young 3yo's looked like blooming superstars to me.  But I'd watched and bet Bob Baffert's Crude Velocity last time out.  When I did I was taken by the comments from So Cal analyst Brad Free about his maiden score so I'd watched the replay.  Broke poorly, checked on the turn; wide into the lane and STILL scored.  So I'd bet him last time out and he was dazzling.  I remarked he'd be seen next in graded company.  And here he was.  Again, he broke slowly but rushed up to press the co favorite.  They whistled through insane :22 / :44 / 1:08 splits and it looked like the rival was edging clear.  But Crude Velocity found another gear.  Collared him in mid-stretch and drew off in a new course record.  Really fun to watch.

I scored in the Grade 1 Turf Classic when Rhetorical wired the field easily.  But with that exception, the final six races saw me run 2nd, 3rd twice (both Bet Backs), 6th and a troubled 4th in the Derby.  Still, despite losing my BEST of the Day I finished ahead for the day.

Derby Week Racing Highlights

Next week is Opening Weekend at Monmouth.  I play all their live racing days, but it's not nearly as active as the winter or even the Keeneland Spring meet because they race only on Saturday and Sunday until mid-summer and then expand to Friday-thru-Sunday.

Spring 2026: Week 4

 April 22-26

The much anticipated Keeneland Spring Meet came to a close on Friday and Churchill Downs opened on Saturday afternoon.  I played Gulfstream on Saturday as well as they had one of the very few cards between Florida Derby Day and December with some quality racing.  There were six FHBPA stakes events featuring some quality thoroughbreds on tap.

Wednesday and Thursday I found eight races I liked.  Won the Wednesday opener with Get Her Number in a seven furlong allowance.  Then ran second in four of the next seven with two thirds.  Booo.

Get Her Number WIRES the Wednesday Opener at Keeneland

Friday was closing day at Keeneland.  I had four races I liked.  In the second Shining Moment went off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.....second, again.  WOW.  I then rattled off three in a row to close the Spring meet on a high note!

Speed Skater DRAWS OFF by more than a pole in a two-turn maiden claimer

Speed Shopper RUNS OFF In The Grade 3 Bewitch as easily best

Pretty Picture edges clear late to WIN the finale as the Friday BEST BET

It was a good spring at Keeneland as I played every live race card

My original plan was to go to Gulfstream on Saturday as it was one of the few days between Florida Derby Day and Opening Day around Thanksgiving that there was quality racing.  But there was very little to choose from on the national scene; even the opening day card at Churchill was weak.  When rains came to our area Friday I was sure there would be scratches and off-the-turf races so I opted to play at home with several big time gaps between races.  Turns out all my runners stayed in....races stayed on the turf.....AND I had a very good day locally.  Should have gone, oh well.

Pure Joy Wins the mile and a quarter opener at Churchill

When my top choice scratched, Nic's Style was an EASY winner in the first GP stakes

Tank SPRINGS THE UPSET going wire-to-wire in the Turf 

The BET of the DAY Mythical romps in the Soph Filly Sprint

Damon's Mound Outclasses his rivals in the Sprint

Super Zenda wraps a FIVE WIN STAKES day at GP in the F&M Turf

Sunday I only won two of six but one paid $10 and change!  Next week, DERBY WEEK!