April 8 - 12: Keeneland Spring - Week 2
Week Two of the Spring Racing Season went about like most weeks....hit the typical percentage of winners, but with most being low prices I lost a little money. As I've said before however, for me it's about playing the game....making money just a bonus. What was most rewarding about the week for me however was that - and I've said this many times - after a full day of racing on Saturday, I always wonder if Sunday will be a let down day. But this Sunday's action turned out to be the best day of the week for picking winners. Here's how the week played out in Lexington.....
Wednesday's card opened, as many do in the spring, with a maiden special 2yo race. What I found most interesting was that last week, Wesley Ward's Waggley was the 7/5 favorite in the Opening Day first, but I was a little nervous with the other Ward runner in that field being not only trained by Ward but OWNED by him. Who to bet that day turned out to be easy when Ward scratched Waggley out. So when he appeared in today's entries, in what seemed like a better spot I upped the bet to a triple investment. He didn't break like a shot as most Ward 2yo's do, but he was an ok third out of the gate By the time they'd gone fifty yards he was in front. You could tell jockey Joel Rosario was loaded as he never moved a muscle. Turning for home he gave him the cue and Waggley drew off by a pole before being geared down late. Nice start to Week 2!
After skipping R2 I was doubling down on Bill Mott's Kapoor who figured to go favored. I noted in my analysis a Keeneland quirk in that R2 was at seven furlongs and this one was at the "about seven furlong distance." Why they do this is beyond me, but maybe because it's similar to the one-turn mile that Churchill offers? At any rate, Kapoor had won by open lengths last year at 7f in Louisville. And was on a two-race winning streak in entry level events at 6f. The last had earned a field best 90 Beyer. If she ran to that she was long gone. If she "bounced" back to her more typical 80's range she was just another win contender. Going third off the bench I went with the former line of thinking. Burst out of the gate, quickly in control by open lengths and drew off as easily best. Two-for-two to start the week! Missed on the third and final bet of the day, but was more than happy to collect a small profit and call it a day.
The Thursday opener was another juvenile MSW dash. My pick here was a horse who's name brought back memories of our travels, and this happens more often than you'd think. As both I and DRF analyst Marcus Hersch noted in looking at this race, I don't blindly take the Ward 2yo's but they DO look best nearly all the time. Here it was Skara Brae who got the enthusiastic nod. She had not one but two bullet works and seemed ready to roll. Skara Brae, the place, is a prehistoric site in Scotland which is actually older than the pyramids. We've visited there before and I included an inset in the winning photo after the filly quickly opened up and ran away from her competition.
I missed on four of the five other picks for the day, but got nearly to even in Race 5, a 3yo maiden special going the mile and a sixteenth on the main track to the first finish line. Much like at Gulfstream with their first finish line in races of that distance, you really need to be close to the front. If not throughout, then certainly you have to have closed ground before entering the far turn. When I picked Fourth Dimension that was what I expected. The Bill Mott runner looked like many of his young horses, raced into condition. Toss the first two tries on turf, he obviously hated it. Ran evenly after a bobbled start going a one-turn mile. Then in his first two turn attempt he was steadied and wide before finishing strongly. Second time long and without trouble I envisioned a pressing or stalking trip. Instead he looped along last into the far turn. Not much hope of a win as the race progressed. But then he shifted into overdrive, circled the field and drew off by open lengths. THAT was impressive, and he went off at a generous 5/1 allowing me to cash for over $30.
Friday was the least successful of the five days. I had four picks, two of which were in graded stakes. The first pick of the day saw Touch of Fire blow by late to score in a 3yo entry level allowance on the turf as the even money favorite. In the Grade 3 Limestone, a turf sprint for 3yo's I DID note that the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint looked best, but who knew how he'd run at 3. led into the lane, looked comfortable, but was run down when a weakening third. I was very confident that Breeders' Cup Mile winner Notable Speech would run big in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. But he was a little too far back and I personally thought he wasn't give the best trip as he was behind and among horses the whole way. By the time he got into the clear in mid-stretch it was too late, a disappointing fourth.
Saturday: Jenny Wiley/Apple Blossom Day
Saturday, as I said at the top, was an interesting day and pretty successful from a win percentage point of few. What I enjoyed most was that I made several decisions on the fly that all turned out positive. After losing the first race from Keeneland, I'd planned to pass the New York opener. I'd listed Castle Chaos as a likely winner, but was reluctant to bet with him having gone winless since at least January 2024. BUT, it was the first time for a tag, and a restricted one. When the other likely winner scratched I took note as I watched the FanDuel broadcast that Castle Chaos was being pounded on the board. Decided to jump in with a double investment. Clear into the lane and apparently home free. But at the 16th pole you could almost feel the horse saying, "come join me, I don't need to be first." Thankfully the wire came JUST in time and I had my first score of the day.
My pick in Keeneland's second scratched and didn't see an alternative. In the second from Aqueduct Focusyn got the nod. He'd been 2/1 in the program and was hovering around 4/1 through the betting. When I re-read my analysis where I said there were as many reasons TO bet him as to NOT bet him I hesitated. But then went with my sheet. Tracked the leaders into the lane, then was part of a 4-horse battle before edging clear late. The better than $9 mutual allowed me to cash for nearly $25.
I liked Money Run in Keeneland's 3rd, enough to double the bet in this starter allowance. But he too scratched out. On my sheet I didn't have another runner listed. But the FanDuel analysts and the betting public were all over Eye Dee Kay. Pulled up the Racing Form and saw why they liked him, but at 3/5? Debated and finally opted to bet, but only the minimum. Tracked the lone speed and then was long, LONG gone. Three-for-four. A great start!
Over the next two hours, i had two seconds and a fourth and a fifth. Still, on a percentage basis, I'm doing OK. I'd opted to play the Aqueduct races largely because they were the only other venue offering stakes races and the first of these was the Mind Your Biscuits for NY-breds 3yo's. Sculos Folly shared a field best Beyer with one other rival but what made me land here was she had "paired" figures and the rival had earned a new career high by more than 20 points. Much more likely to see a repeat of something that's already been done I thought. Broke sharply but was held just off the pace to the top of the lane. Let loose and rolled home easily the best.
Was 4th in a five horse field at Oaklawn, behind my second choice before getting back in the winner's circle. Todd Pletcher's Noble Confessor clearly had talent. He'd run EIGHT stakes events, the first three as a maiden. Always close but never good enough. Today he dropped into an entry level allowance looking for the elusive second win. Tracked the runaway, loose-on-the-lead front runner into the lane but was still half a dozen back at the top of the stretch. Kept trying and was JUST up in time. I'd tripled the wager and cashed for over $40 for the effort!
Less than ten minutes after the Noble Currency score Hot Currency was headed into the gate as the favorite in Aqueduct's Fourstar Crook Stakes. He held a trio of mid-70 Beyers that would make him the easiest winner unless one of the other 3yo's suddenly popped. Pressed to the turn and took off under confident handling for my sixth winner of the day.
Ran 2nd and 4th with the next two picks before it was time for the featured Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland. My top pick and "BEST of the Day" had scratched. I initially debated passing the race but when I looked at the field again, minus my horse I felt my second choice was a legitimate favorite. I cut the wager in half and played Chad Brown's multiple Grade 1 winning Segesta. Got the perfect trip, got to the front at the 1/8th pole when the second choice came flying up the rail. OH that was THE closest photo I've seen in a long time. I went back and forth on the slo-mo replays...I won, I didn't. Finally a DEAD Heat was announced. I was happy enough to collect a seventh winning ticket.
The final six races, including two graded stakes from Oaklawn, one the featured Grade 1 Apple Blossom only produced one winning pick, when Munnings Challenge was easily best as the 2/5 favorite in a MSW at Oaklawn. But for the day my win percentage was a strong 38%. Had I won with either of my two missed "prime time" bets I'd have been a winner - both, it would have been a very good day :) Ahhhhh, the track :)
Last weekend, on Opening Weekend, Keeneland raced on just Friday and Saturday so I wasn't sure if there would be racing on Sunday this week. And honestly until Friday I didn't even look. When I saw they were running on Sunday I briefly debated - as always - if I wanted to have a day at the track after spending nearly the full day Saturday at the races. But in the end I opted to go ahead and look. I surprised even myself, because I tried to be particular about having a betting interest, but I found bets in seven of the nine races. In the opener Use Me was listed at 5/1 in the program and looked clearly best to me in this MSW for 3yo's. Was six wide on the turf course turning for home, caught the leaders nearing the 16th pole and drew away.
I wrote that if Brad Cox's Senior Officer had overcome what ever issues he'd had leading to his layoffs previously, he would use today as a stepping stone to graded stakes action. I made the $500K Into Mischief 4yo my BEST BET of the Day. Senior Officer sat inside in fourth to the top of the stretch. Switched out, got raced track and hit the front at the 16th pole without being asked. He'd gone from 1/9 to 1/5 and ended up paying $2.84 on as close as a lock as you'll see on a Sunday. The more than $8 profit was a gift from my fellow racing fans and I was most appreciative.
I missed in the third, but then took two of the last three (and my final selection scratched out) Take Charge Omaha went from last to first on the turn and drew off in a 2nd level allowance and then Civil Liberty lived up to his odds-on status after exiting a KEY race in So Cal and was tons the best to close the day. Went 4-for-6 and made nearly $40. THAT is a good Sunday my friends.
Nest week the highlight of the weekend will be the return of Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap!
