Spring 2026: Week 1

 Opening Weekend at Keeneland
April 3-4

We had no longer returned from Europe and gone to the Florida Derby last weekend before immediately we were on the move with the beginning of the Spring Racing Season which is always highlighted by the Triple Crown races.  The Opening Day card on Friday started with the first two-year-old race of the year, and if you follow racing you know that trainer Wesley Ward DOMINATES these races in Lexington.  But the problem for me was that he had two in here.  Waggley was the 7/5 morning line choice and by all accounts looked to be clearly the one to beat.  But I was concerned because the "other" Ward runner, Suspicions, was OWNED by Wesley Ward.  I found it hard to believe that he'd run his own juvenile against a better 2yo.  The more experience and regular rider here in the spring for Ward, Joel Rosario was on Waggley.  What to do?  Then, Waggley scratched.  Now it's easy.  Suspicious broke a step slowly, pressed the pace to the turn.  At a crucial moment on the turn when the one likely to upset made his move along the rail he got shut off and steadied briefly.  Suspicious flew on the outside and drew off at a more than fair $4.80 payoff.

A dozen 3yo's were in a $50K starter allowance in R2.  ELEVEN of them had nearly identical recent Beyers.  Only Miss Call had run faster, and against better.  But those were in her two-year-old races.  If she ran back to those I thought she'd be tough.  Broke mid-pack, slid to the rail and saved ground to the top of the lane.  Split rivals and drew off by open lengths at a big $7.80 and suddenly I'm 2-for-2 and way ahead in the money column.

The next three were a PASS and two minimum bets which both ran third.  I doubled the bet on Graham Motion's Without in an entry level allowance.  Steadied to the back early, rallied to the front at the top of the stretch then was outrun to the wire, fifth.  The Grade 2 Beaumont was a 7f test for 3yo fillies that probably serves as a prep for the Grade 2 Eight Belles on the Kentucky Derby undercard.  One of my favorite handicappers from years gone by was the late Dave Liftin.  One thing I learned from him was when a 3yo runs a Beyer in her 3yo start faster than their best as a 2yo, it's time to watch out in the next or subsequent race.   A Fine Chardonnay had earned her best figure in an allowance race HERE as a 2yo.  Her first start at three seemed to have been running to close to the leaders early one and finishing third, but she ran a new top.  I thought she'd be dangerous with the "Liftin angle."  Settled comfortably near the back, which I was glad to see, while outside in the clear.  Circled the field at least six wide turning for home and blew by at the 16th pole to win at another generous price ($6.82) allowing me to cash for over $30 for the second time today.

Race 8 was the Grade 3 Transylvania for 3yo's on the turf.  I noted that on the big Florida Derby card last Saturday, Gr 3 races were run for a $175K purse.  This race carried a whopping $600K purse - who'd run on Derby Day if they could wait for Keeneland?  Remember Mamba had aired in both career starts including his debut win HERE last fall.  If you were looking at the dates of the races it wouldn't be hard to think trainer Cherie DeVaux had been pointing for this all winter.  But turning for home he seemed so hopeless out of it.  Eighth of eleven on the turn and worse, in and among horses and behind a wall of runners I was resigned to losing.  But he shook free in mid-stretch and hit a whole other gear and ran two strides to every one of the horses in front of him and blew by to win at an even bigger price than A Fine Chardonnay had paid (paid $6.88), and I cashed for more than $30 for the third time today.  It was remarkable to me that I ran 2nd at odds on with my BEST Bet in the Grade 1 Ashland in the next and lost the finale but still showed a profit of more than $40 while going a sharp 4-for-9.

Saturday

Saturday was not only Bluegrass Day at Keeneland, but it was Wood Memorial Day at Aqueduct and Santa Anita Derby Day out west.  After missing with the the opener in New York I'd planned to pass the opener at Keeneland, and in fact had not even listed a horse in my brief analysis.  But watching on FanDuel TV everyone was raving about Wesley Ward's 3yo Thailand.  They showed a feature of Ward with the horse and he seemed ultra confident.  Put down a double investment.  Pressed the 6/1 leader into the turn while well in hand and drew off under a hand ride at even money.

Came right back in the 2nd at the Big A with Porosity.  No one had earned a par figure or had the kind of resume I like in a second level event like this sprint.  But this filly had won three of her last four (in a five race career), and came from leading trainer Linda Rice.  Was last early behind an early pace then came with a flying rally to draw away late.

Missed on the next SIX including some awfully "obvious" choices that were short prices - should have seen this as a hint of what was to come throughout the day.  But kept firing.....it's what I do.  My top pick in the second at Santa Anita scratched so I re-read what I'd written about my second choice, Crude Velocity.  I had noted that if this 3yo - the only sophomore in the field - was taking a lot of money he'd be the bet.  He'd only been out for his debut but it had been sensational.  Broke slowly AND was steadied on the turn, but still drew off in hand that day.  Left the gate at 1-2 odds.  Tracked the trio of front runners while four wide and in the clear.  Swooped by at the top of the lane and drew off impressively.  Stakes company has to be next for this guy.

More disappointments when I ran 2nd at 2-5 and 3rd at 6/5 before it was time for the Grade 3 Commonwealth from Keeneland.  I'd seen and bet Brad Cox's Saudi Crown before and I was just a touch anxious when the analyst on TV pointed out his pattern of good race, bad race and noted he was coming off a good race.  Uh oh.  But on paper he looked best.  Broke sharply but was pulled back to sit third to the top of the stretch then took off, drawing off easily.

After a sharp 2nd at 7/2 in the Grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland I got my fifth win of the day at Aqueduct when Incentive To Pay scored in a second level allowance sprint.  Part of the reasoning for making him a triple investment was he'd run off an 18 month layoff last time out and finished third behind Porosity - who'd won earlier today.  Was under a tight hold into the lane and took off through the final furlong to score handily.  Cashed for over $35.

After a no-show 7th in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland I was disappointed AGAIN when 3/5 Immersive was only second best in the Grade 3 Distaff at Aqueduct.  Sigh...... But my spirits brightened about twenty minutes later when Mike McCarthy's 3yo filly Meaning was a handy winner of the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks.  I would have bet her anyway, but the fact that Bob Baffert's go-to rider Juan Hernandez - leading rider at the meet - jumped OFF the Baffert filly to ride here sealed the deal and led to upping the investment to a triple investment.  Tracked inside to the stretch, shifted out to get clear running and was up in the final 200 yards at a "fair" 4/5 price.

Missed on the next two before it was time for the featured Grade 1 Bluegrass with 100 points on the line towards a berth in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.  As the horses were in the paddock my oldest son Jeff called and asked who I liked in here.  We agreed that the field did not look to have any standouts and I told him I liked Further Ado enough to put a minimum wager on him.  The one angle I did like was that the colt had broken his maiden HERE with an eye-catching 20 plus length score.  If he truly relished the Keeneland track he could run big today.  After being steered wide through both turns to stay out of trouble he kicked into gear in the lane and drew off by a dozen or more lengths.  As the replay ran I pointed him out to Kim and said, "Now we have to decide if this impressive performance means he's ready for a big effort in the Kentucky Derby OR does he just love Keeneland?"  Once it went official and the payoff was posted I opened my Xpressbet "wagers" tab and saw a $10 bet - wait, I only bet $5.  Double checked the race and the horse and YES....somehow I had upped the bet and instead of cashing for less than $10 I was collecting nearly $20.  Oh sometimes it's better to be lucky that good, eh?

The last winner of the day came in Santa Anita's Evening Jewel where Mohaven went wire to wire as a short priced favorite with my "prime time" investment on board.

Next weekend's highlights will be the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland and the $1.25 Million Grade 1 Apple Blossom from Oaklawn.

Fall Racing Week 12

 Saturday November 15:  Claiming Crown Day

The week started in South Florida with our first real cold front of the year when the thermometer read a brisk 48 degrees as I had coffee out on the porch.  On Tuesday my wife Kim left in the morning for a week in Erie to celebrate her Mom's birthday.  I also was heading north, to Ohio, but not until Friday afternoon so I had most of the week all alone.  Was fortunate to have handicapping to occupy a couple of the mornings....a night at the Panthers game on Thursday, and of course some daily contact with social media pals to keep me from being totally "alone."  Won the hockey game in an excellent game to be at with my wingman Enzo and buddy Phil flanking me in our front row seats.  The flight to Ohio was smooth as I occupied some of my time building a short preview - that I'll release next week on FB - of our upcoming trip to Europe for the Christmas Markets in Germany.

Originally I didn't know if the races would have anything worth while playing but then I saw that it was Claiming Crown Day at Churchill.  The multiple stakes races restricted to runners who've been in claiming events used to be the annual kick off event at Gulfstream's Championship Meet, and I knew I'd enjoy playing those races.  Then I discovered there were a couple of stakes events in NY so I added the Aqueduct program.  I thought I was done handicapping but Thursday morning I looked and saw there were multiple "looks pretty solid" runners on the Gulfstream program so I added their card as well.  Moderate 50 degree temperatures were the case my first morning in Ohio as I prepared for the late morning - 11:40am - opener in NY.  Looked too wide open so I passed there, and my pick in their second scratched so the first wager of the day took place at Gulfstream in their opener, a mile and a sixteenth on the first of SEVEN Tapeta events....this one a maiden claimer.  The one and only question was if you believed that No Time To Wait would run back to his July effort on the all-weather.  Earned a field best 61 Beyer that day when 4th and upped the figure in a two-turn turf event next out to 63.  No show in a one-turn dirt mile.  All three against maiden specials.  Today trainer Jose D'Angelo dropped him all the way to the bottom at $12.5K and I just had to believe he'd repeat those earlier two-turn numbers.  Tracked the two leaders into the turn while confidently handled.  Inhaled them with ease and drew off without taking a deep breath.  That he was NOT 1/5 was amazing and I gladly accepted the $3 payout on a $2 bet with my double investment to start the day.

The third was a nw1x allowance event and while I've seen this on occasion before, I STILL do not know what hidden conditions would allow Blue Kingdom to be in this field.  The conditions were for non-winners of $20K other than or three races lifetime.  She'd won four races and was exiting back-to-back allowance wins which carried purses higher than allowed under the conditions.  She'd led into the lane in her most recent going nine furlongs in the Maryland Million Classic.  She was a recent claim for top national claiming trainer Jamie Ness and she looked to be the easiest winner on the front end.  Cleared the field in the first two jumps and led by daylight the entire 7f trip.  How she paid 4/5 I'll never know but was happy to take everyone's money for my second win in a row.  I noted for R2 at Gulfstream that as short a price as you'd expect on No Time To Wait in a basement maiden affair, the price on Julee's Legacy in a $6.25K claimer going 6f was certain to be even lower.  She was 4-for-8 in So Fla and 5/3-2-0 at the 6f trip.  Her LAST SEVEN Beyers would beat 131 of the 132 numbers on the page.  Oh my.  If you were trying to beat her you'd bank on she hadn't run since July and had been claimed for $20K only to have the claim voided.  But, for me, just too good.  And carrying our daughter's name it was an easy bet to make.  Right to the front, opened up by half a dozen on the turn and won by a widening pole as the prohibitive favorite......3-for-3!

The fourth at the Big A was my first "big" bet of the day on Todd Pletcher's Scope in a 2yo MSW turf route.  Was even the DRF Best of the Day, and DRF analyst Mike Beer next to never goes with the favorite as his pick, much less as his Best.  A belated fourth - and I had to smile noting that I was now 3-for-4 on the day but had lost a little money.  Ohhhh racing, you gotta love it!  In the fifth at Aqueduct I put Master of Arms on top but initially listed the race as a "PASS" race.  His numbers towered over the field and two back he'd beaten $16K claimers with a big 86 Beyer and was claimed by Linda Rice.  He tried allowance company which was too strong, but what worried me was first off the claim he earned a 74 Beyer, his slowest in two years.  Could he bounce back.  When he took all the money I decided to jump in.  Effortlessly swept to the front on the turn and opened up.  Had to work to maintain the daylight advantage but still was a clear winner for my fourth score of the day.

Accelerate Me looked best to me in Gulfstream's 4th, a cheap $8K nw2L event going a one-turn mile on the main track.  His likely rival had led the way when they met last time out and Accelerate had run by him despite facing winners for the first time.  Broke sharply but taken back off the pace.  I thought I was in trouble when the rider was asking him hard on the turn, but he rallied wide and edged clear in the final 16th of a mile and I cashed my fifth ticket on the day.

Ran 2nd and 3rd in two stakes from Churchill before they were going to the gate in the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks at Aqueduct, a marathon mile-and-three-eighths turf test restricted to 3yo fillies.  Fionn was a multiple graded stakes winner but had run a struggling fourth behind today's rival Laurelin last time out in Keeneland's Grade 1 QE II where Laurelin suffered her first loss in five starts.  I'd had Laurelin when she won the Penn Oaks and she looked talented enough, but I thought today would be a bounce back day for Fionn.  She was sent off at a "fair" 7/5 with Laurelin being the even money favorite.  The two moved in tandem wide off the turn and for a few strides it looked like I'd be second best behind the favorite, but in the final 200 yards she found another gear and surged to the front!

The sixth at Gulfstream was a five and a half furlong sprint on the all-weather, again, for 2yo maiden specials.  Shipmate looked like a very legitimate favorite except.....he'd never run on the all-weather.  But he'd debuted at the strong Keeneland Fall meet in a turf sprint.  Broke poorly but rallied strongly to only miss by two lengths.  But the key for me was his work pattern.  Before the Kentucky debut he showed "OK" works.  But since then two near bullets:  2nd best of 69 and 2nd best of 76.  His Beyer was double digits faster than anyone else's.  IF he took to the synthetic he'd be long gone.  I noted, "watch the board for clues."  As the betting progressed he was being pounded in all the pools.  Upped the bet to a triple investment.  Broke sharply on top, challenged at the top of the lane by a 20/1 outsider and for a moment it was "UH-OH" - but he rebroke and drew off handily!

The fifth in Louisville was the second of the eight added money Claiming Crown events.  This one was the Claiming Crown Tiara going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  The race was restricted to fillies and mares who'd raced for a $25K claiming tag or less.  Ashima had seven turf starts and had hit the board in six of them.  What appealed most to me was in her last four turf tries she had two wins, a photo finish second and a close third in an allowance behind a multiple stakes winner with Beyers of 80-78-88-81 - all of which would win today.  AND last January she won the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  Mid-pack into the turn, "buried behind runners" as track announcer Travis Stone called it.  Sliced between rivals, burst into the clear and shot to the front through the final 16th.  Paid a generous $6.78 so I cashed for over $30 on my first Claiming Crown winner.

After running fourth at 4/5 in New York I liked Curlin's Malibu in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse.  When he was NOT the favorite and drew a lot of attention from the on-air analysts at Churchill I probably should have upped the bet.  But his lifetime 40/5-7-8 resume was sketchy.  STILL willing to go with him because he had a new trainer and all three starts under his care had been sharp.  He was running mid-pack until he got shuffled back approaching the turn.  Asked for run he accelerated between runners, split rivals into the stretch....dueled and edged clear late.  The payoff of nearly $9 would have would have produced more than $40 on return had I upped the bet, but still I was happy to cash for over $20 - my second "nice priced" Claiming Crown stakes winner.  

A little over ten minutes after the Claiming Crown Iron Horse went official they were headed to the gate in the co-featured Knickerbocker Stakes at Aqueduct.  Ohana Honor was my pick, and for me you had to look past his 18/3-5-3 lifetime resume to bet with confidence.  The $430K sales grad was trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.  And if you scanned down his pp's to March of 2024, since then he'd run in eight races.  Seven of the eight earned Beyers of 90 or better (97-98-99-100-95-96), and would all win here.  AND in five of his last six starts he'd faced graded foes while picking up minor checks in four of those.  Third off the bench with top jockey Flavian Prat on board.  Settled mid-pack to the far turn where Prat moved outside into the clear.  Rallied three-wide past the leader and drew off convincingly through the lane.

After the Ohana Honor win I stood at 11-of-15 on the day and with a clear profit.  I'm having a very good day.  But you know how racing goes.... over the next two and a half hours I went 0-for-6 with two seconds including losses at 4/5, 1/1 and 2/5.  WOW.  The final play of the day came in the Claiming Crown Emerald going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf under the lights and the Twin Spires.  When I'd gone to Churchill Downs for "Downs After Dark" in June I'd scored with Echo Lane.  His last Beyer made him just another runner, but his previous seven would make him the winner.  Tracked in third to the turn, was revved up by jockey Luis Saez as he confronted the leader at the 16th pole and then drew off through the final 200 yards.  AND best of all, on my third Claiming Crown winner he paid a generous payout again - $6.90 allowing me to cash for over $30 and edged me back into the black for the day!

Echo Lane scores at Downs After Dark in June

Enjoyed the day of racing and being in Ohio for the five days.  Saturday's Results boosted the Fall stats for win percentages for sure with only two weeks left before the opening of Gulfstream's Championship Meet on Thanksgiving Day.  

Upped the profit thanks to Xpressbet promotion :)

Weekend pics of our trips up north

Social Media this week

So my pretty wife Kim left for Erie, PA on Tuesday morning leaving me nearly four full days to myself.  And in this "era" where I have little face-to-face human contact I had to rely on my social media pals to keep me company.  So I ran a screen saver of my "peeps" and how we'd interacted, but still not the same.  And as I watched the photos scroll I was reminded of just how lucky I am to have such a sweet and beautiful wife.....who continues to always be the best looking girl in the room no matter where we are.  Made me grab some "recent" photos of her as a montage :)

I don't have much contact with gal-pal Jessica who was my "go-to girl" at Ford's Garage in Fort Myers a few years ago.  Several evenings when I was in town alone, Kim on the other coast, I'd go to Ford's for dinner and Jessica would spend a lot of time with me chatting.  She had a new born then and now has a second....boy how they've grown.  When I reach out to her with comments I nearly always get a reactions, so I'm happy she still "knows me."

Former school gal-pal and graduation committee helper Sha had her birthday this week.  She appreciated my birthday wishes.

I had a three-way conversation with buddy Jeff Nelson, his wife Gina, and their daughter - my gal pal Chloe.  Chloe was sad to tell me she wouldn't be coming to the Florida Derby but had a very good comment for my Breeders' Cup adventure with my son Brad.

Former weekend morning anchor Teri posted a cute pic of herself....I reacted and she replied.  Teri is really good about nearly always at least "liking" what ever I post / send to her.

I find it oh-so-cool that Saturday (and this has happened several times) while watching football in Ohio....playing races from New York, Louisville, and So Fla, I was chatting with my girl Petra as she sailed down the Nile River in Egypt!  Technology!!!  I was particularly happy when I asked her for a recent pic and she had the Guest Services Team do a group photo for me.  Viking staff are the best.

Like most weeks, the most social interaction came with my buddy Lauren Pastrana.  When the weather was due to turn chilly and we'd have, as she calls them, a "coffee in a hoodie" morning I reached out during the news and she quickly "liked" my comment.  The next day I saw a reel Lauren posted about an upcoming investigative piece.  When I messaged her about it she wrote me right back that it would be a "good one!"  Then on Tuesday evening she had on a cool pair of boots - she enjoyed my comment admiring them....and later that evening I happened to have the news on at 7pm and the local news cast was back in place of the national news.  This had been Lauren's domain as a solo anchor.  I asked her about it and she responded she tried to get it but it was given to another reporter.  Boooooo.  Thursday I messaged her that I was going to the game and was hoping for a story at 11pm about a Panthers win.  Got an almost immediate heart to that.  Friday shortly before leaving for the airport I reached out to tell Lauren I was off and would be following via the streaming service and/or Direct TV and she again liked my message before I even left for the airport.  But the best was on Saturday when Lauren started a donation page for a local charity.  I admire her work in the community and typically when she does this I will contribute.  I did so and quickly she wrote to me in reaction to her 11pm story (she liked that) and messaged me her appreciation :)

To "keep me company" I watched a screen saver of my interactions with my favorite social media girls - the best of the photos they've posted online of themselves.....