Closing Day at Keeneland

 Saturday October 30

Today I was planning to be on track at Keeneland as part of my visit to Ohio, and I was looking forward to heading back to Europe on a Viking river cruise in about ten days.  Well, as they say, the best laid plans.... I did make it to Ohio, but the other two plans fell through.  The trip to Europe we were very excited about, but last Sunday I saw news reports out of Romania, where our trip was beginning, that the virus situation had declined - and the vaccination rate was so low - that schools were closing for two weeks, employers were told to work at 50% labor force, and a 10 pm curfew was instituted with all restaurants and bars closing at 9 pm.  Just didn't seem like the right decision to go forward with the trip.  So Kim and I cancelled and used the money to book a July trip to Paris and the beaches of Normandy.  Unfortunately, because we'd been so sure we were going, I'd needed to move my eye injection up to Wednesday - the day before I flew to Ohio - just two weeks after the last one, so I'd be good to go while in Europe.  Flew to Ohio Thursday and maybe it was the fact that this had been just two weeks after the last shot...maybe it was that the day after the shot was NOT a "take it easy day" .... maybe it was the rain....but regardless on Friday morning going to get coffee in Ohio in the dark I had a difficult time seeing the road.  And it just made me wonder why I was going to drive 3 1/2 hours to Kentucky - in the rain....to be on my feet all day in 50 degree weather, in the rain....to get in the car and drive 3 1/2 hours back in the rain, IN THE DARK.  So I backed out and played the races online.  Here's how the day played out for me.......

In the second at Keeneland the race was a nine furlong turf event for two-year-old maiden fillies.  So the first question was were we on the turf?  Secondly, this was one of the very first races, nationally, where juveniles were being asked to go a mile and an eighth.  Who could get the distance, and who would run their race on the dirt...a wet track to boot?  I gave the edge to Freedom Rose who had been two turns twice, albeit on the grass.  But she was a daughter of Constitution so she should have not problem with dirt or the distance.  And IF that were the case, her last two Beyers were not only "paired" figures, which would indicate today she'd move forward, but they were clearly MUCH better than anything else the rest of the field had ever run.  The only question for me was what kind of ride we'd get from Javier Castellano who often times, these days, seems clueless on how to put his horse in the best position to win.  Complicate this with the outside draw.  But today he gave his filly a Hall of Fame ride by pressing the leader to the far turn, glided easily to the front and opened up by more than half a dozen in the lane to win in hand under the wire.  Doubled the bet based on the numbers and cashed out on the first winner for nearly $40!  WHOO HOOO!

Right back in the very next race on the sheet, this one the first of the NY-bred stakes races on New York Showcase Day, the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for 2yo colts.  I preferred Shipsational who'd won two of three, the most recent being a 7f NY-bred stakes like this....but today they were all going a one-turn mile and none of them had ever gone this far before.  The main rival looked to be Todd Pletcher's last out debut winner Overstep who was the favorite in the DRF morning line.  I noted in my analysis that should that one take a lot of money I reserved the right to switch the selection.  And when I flipped from the Keeneland page to the Belmont page to see the betting, Overstep WAS the short-priced favorite....at time listed at 4/5 to 2/1 for Shipsational.  Hmmmm, what to do.  So I checked the double and multi-race payoffs and discovered that Shipsational was the slight favorite in all those pools.  For me that confirmed my initial selection, so I went with him.  He dueled with that one to the far turn, put him away and was clear into the lane and I thought I was home free.  But the favorite came charging again.  Too little, too late and I scored.  Shipsational had taken late money and while the Pletcher colt was the 4/5 favorite, my pick went off at 6/5 so I cashed for just a little shy of $25.  Suddenly I've won two races and am ahead for the day.

Didn't cash again until about three hours later in The Empire Classic, and it was my "Belmont Best Bet" on Todd Pletcher's Americanrevolution.  The colt had debuted with a fourth place finish, but then was moved to Pletcher's care.  He promptly won his maiden, then showed so much promise that he was sent to the New York Derby for state-breds, which he won.  Next out he cruised in the Albany Stakes at Saratoga.  Was a decisive winner and the runner-up was a dozen clear of the rest of the field.  He so impressed the connections that they decided to go for the gusto and sent him not only into open company but to the $1 Million Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby.  He finished a sharp third behind two Triple Crown, graded stakes winners.  Now back in state-bred company in a listed stakes he looked to be odds on, not the 3/1 listing in the DRF early line.  Sat third right behind the front runners to the far turn then coasted to the front and ran away as much, MUCH the best!

And proving my often written about adage, in the Keeneland finale, I scored with my BET of the Day on Famed.  What made this a "unique" play is that I've often said the race does NOT have to be a Grade 1 $1 Million Breeders' Cup race to be a "Bet of the Day" investment.  Such was the case with this maiden event for two-year-olds going the "about seven furlong" trip that Keeneland offers from time to time.  In his debut Famed was a best-of-the-rest second, finishing SEVEN in front of the show runner and had earned a figure that was the length of the stretch faster than anyone else in the field here.  My advice in my analysis, "....take the short price and cash out on the finale...."  Famed broke a step slowly, but quickly assumed command before they'd gone a quarter of a mile.  He took some pressure to the far turn, then effortlessly opened up and won geared down by so many lengths that the rest of the field wasn't even on the TV screen!

Famed, TONS the best

Sunday I looked for any standouts and didn't find any, but mid-afternoon I turned on "America's Day At The Races" - largely because it was Opening Day at Churchill for the November Meet and as I watched I found three runners I liked enough based on the comments of the analysts to bet them.  Won two of three :)

Freedom Rose Runs Away In Belmont's 2nd

Penny Saver EASILY In The 8th at Churchill

Social Media Buzz

On Tuesday what turned out to be a very busy "social week" - it's funny how in today's world so much of my / our contact with friends is through the social media.  Most if not all of these people I consider pretty good friends of mine but I'd never email them individually or call them on the phone.  But to reach out via social media and have them respond back is almost "expected," even if it's just that they acknowledge me and not actually "talk."  The first encounter came with my sweet pal Mishelle.  She posted a new profile photo where, as you can see, she looks so pretty.  As we talked she revealed to me that she had recently divorced so her retirement and our "wine date" would be postponed.  So I offered that we needed to celebrate her new life and happiness to which she was most agreeable.

Later that same day I saw online that my handicapping hottie gal-pal Acacia Courtney was celebrating her birthday so I reached out to her.

On Wednesday morning the morning news did a feature on the opening of a local place that specializes in the best cinnamon rolls.  People had begun lining up at 10:30 pm the night before for their 8 am opening.  WOW, they must be good.  Gal-pal reporter and sometime anchor Brooke did the story so I reached out to her.

Later that day I'd just returned from my eye injection and turned on the CBS-4 Evening News.  They were doing a story on the top Halloween candy per state and when they listed the top three in Florida, my very good gal-pal anchor Lauren noted her favorite was 3 Musketeers.  I immediately snapped a photo of her on air and messaged her that I loved those, but especially frozen.  And LESS THAN A MINUTE LATER, WHILE ON AIR she messaged me right back that she likes all her candy bars like that.  I get the biggest kick out of when my on-air people "talk" with me while they are on air.

Thursday our cutie friend Shelly posted a pasta dish photo online and I let her I know I "wanted some."  Indeed :)  Love that stuff.

And on the same day Chloe, daughter of good asst. prin. friend posted a Halloween photo that led to my comment and her reaction.

That afternoon my good teacher gal pal Jen Cook posted about a former student reaching out to her and how good that made her feel, so I reached out to her as well.

On Saturday Mishelle posted her Halloween costume from Friday at her school - "Alice in Wonderland" and of course she looked very cute with the blonde hair to match.

Later in the day I reached out to my gal-pal anchors Lauren & Karli regarding the Florida - Georgia football game this afternoon.  Lauren is a Gator Girl graduate and Karli is a Georgia Bulldog graduate.  We'd exchanged messages previously about this game - I replying to their posts, but today it was ME that initiated the conversation.  That Lauren "replied" on a day off and Karli commented was cool, to me that is :)

Chloe and her family were at the Gator game and when she posted the pic I commented - they are THE BEST - love the kids....Jeff Nelson is a great friend and his wife Gina is a sweet friend as well.

And finally, during the Panther's game that evening the two Panther reporter girls that I'm friends with did a video where they went through a Haunted House.  It was cute to see their "girlish" reactions to the "scary" things in the house.  I reached out and got a reaction.

And finally, late Saturday Shelly posted a pic of her with some of her friends.  Attired in typical "up north" fall wear I complimented her boots which drew a reaction/reply :)

All good stuff for sure.

Maryland Million Weekend

 Saturday October 23

I've said for years that the Fall Championship Season, which for me runs from Labor Day until the first weekend in December when the Gulfstream Championship Meet opens is my "down time" to recharge for the daily handicapping at my favorite track, "GP By The Sea!"  But I don't think there's ever been a fall where I've played less than this one.  To date......I took two weeks off from Labor Day before I had a full day of racing on September 18th.  The weekends of September 25 and October 2 we were on our Puget Sound cruise and I played a dozen races from Parx on the first Saturday and three "locks" on the second Saturday.  October 9-10 it was Opening Weekend at Keeneland and I had only nine picks over the two days of racing.  Took another two weeks off before playing three tracks this weekend.  And since the first weekend in September - no week day selections.  I will be ready to roll when December arrives!

The first "win" of the week came on Wednesday....wait, I thought you said you'd not played during the week since Labor Day.  Indeed I did.  But you see, this was a collection of winnings from a previous score!  One of MY horses, Going To Vegas won the Grade 2 John Mabee at Del Mar in early September.  But instead of collecting our share of the winner's purse, I and my fellow owners were told that the decision had been made to try and run in the Breeders' Cup.  And because Going To Vegas was NOT nominated, the plan was to run back in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive.  A win there, coupled with the win in the Mabee would make enough in earnings to cover entry into the Breeders' Cup World Championships.  But on Wednesday I was notified that Going To Vegas had enough winnings in the latter race to get into the Breeders' Cup, so we'd all be receiving our share of the purse, which for me would be over $15.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

On Saturday, the opener at Laurel it was the first of a dozen consecutive stakes, a few of which - like this one - were starter stakes (like the Claiming Crown at Gulfstream).  This was a nine furlong turf event and if you scanned the past performances it was clear that B Determined was the deserving favorite.  In ten turf starts he'd been in the money in six of them and he'd run at this mile and an eighth distance previously - something most in the field had not (he finished second that time).  Most importantly, his Beyers were a pole faster than anyone else in the field.  On the downside, he seemed to run to his competition as he had only two wins to his credit.  He was 2/5 as they went into the gate, way shorter than he deserved, but as they rounded the first turn onto the backstretch he'd floated up to 6/5 which was a "fair" price.  He trailed the field to far turn, began picking off horses while circling wide and surged to the front inside the sixteenth pole, and held off a flying longshot closer.  Cashed for over $20 to kick off the day.

In the second at Laurel I had the 3/1 third choice.  Ran third, but with the "Money Back Promotion" on all the races at Laurel, it was a "WIN" or at least a cashed ticket.  Passed the third in Maryland, also the Belmont opener and the opener at Keeneland.  Tried my first selection on the new Gulfstream synthetic surface and ran an even fourth in a maiden claiming event around nine furlongs.  Lost my pick in the Laurel fourth when my pick scratched....didn't care for anyone else.  And then I rand 2nd at Belmont in an entry level allowance going seven panels with the 9/5 tepid favorite.  Passed the second at Gulfstream and faded badly to be ninth at 3/1 in the Laurel 5th which was another starter event.  The second at Keeneland was a MSW turf sprint going five and a half furlongs.  The opener I'd passed had seen the short priced Wesley Ward favorite run second.  I'd passed the race "knowing" that people love Ward 2yo maidens at Keeneland, but as I noted in my analysis - those seem to run best at the Spring Meet, not in the fall.  But I'd no sooner written that than in this spot I DID like a Ward 2yo maiden.  Well, just goes to prove that "the rule" in handicapping is that there are NO rules!  To be fair, unlike the opener where the Ward runner was a first time starter, here Top Gun Girl had already been out.  In his debut he had dueled from gate to wire and lost a head-bobbing decision while earning a Beyer figure that matched the par for this level of competition AND was a pole faster than anyone else in the field.  The even money morning line stood as testament to his obvious advantage on paper.  Sent off as the 1-2 choice he went right to the front, dueled to the top of the far turn and then ran away as much, MUCH the best.

The third race at Belmont was another maiden turf sprint for juveniles, this one for fillies.  Christophe Clement had sent out Lia Marina at Saratoga and she completely missed the break to start last.  But she came flying for third....promising.  The good news was that since then she'd breezed three times on the turf.  The bad news was that all three works were S-L-O-W.  Hmmmm.  Went with the pick thinking that the added ground (today was at 6f) would give Joel Rosario a better shot at the winner's circle.  She tracked the leaders while between runners.  Collared the 30/1 front runner, dueled through the stretch and finally edged clear late.

Ran third in a 2yo stakes event at Gulfstream, which was the first EVER stakes event to be held over their new all-weather track.  And then I had my first "upped the bet" pick in the Maryland Million Turf Sprint going five and half furlongs over the inner course.  I anticipated Grateful Bred to be odds on at post time as he'd earned six straight Beyer figures between 84 and 89 - all good enough to win today - and had "paired figures in his last two (88-89) which were indicative of a big effort today.  He had won four-of-eight sprinting on the grass and his outside draw meant, that while he might be wide, he'd be out of trouble throughout.  Burst out of the gate, found himself in front and was long, LONG gone as easily the best.  Cashed for over $20 with my triple investment.

After passing both the third at Keeneland and the fourth at Belmont, Todd Pletcher's Amani's Image was a disappointing second best as the 6/5 favorite in a Gulfstream maiden event going a one-turn mile.  That led to the BET of the Day was the Maryland Million Distaff with Hello Beautiful.  I could go on and on about her advantages but the two to share here that were most relevant:  Hello Beautiful was 8-for-9 at Laurel with the lone loss in an OPEN/Graded stakes; and her LAST THREE Beyer figures beat all 74 combined lifetime figures earned by the rest of the field.  Add in that she was the obvious front runner and you could see why she was destined to be a very short price.  I originally planned to play for $40, but just thought as they approached the gate she was a "sure thing," so I upped the bet to $50 TO WIN.  Right to the front and was never, ever threatened.  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Over the next 90 minutes I had three minimum bets and six "PASS" races.  Ran third, 6th and 8th with those minimum bet selections.  After running 9th in another minimum bet event at Belmont it was time for the Maryland Million Sprint.  Double Crown was the 4/5 favorite but trailed the field early.  Rallied late and passed all but the daylight winner.  But...with the second place finish, I "cashed" again thanks to the "money back promotion."  Passed at GP, faded to 9th at 3/1 in the first stakes event at Keeneland and was second, again - this time at Belmont in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel when High Opinion could not run down the winner late.  In the Maryland Million Classic, much like the sprint, I had the odds-on choice in Tappin Cat only to see him run second again.  A "need to lead" type he had drawn wide and never got to the front.  But, like the Sprint, the in-the-money finish was another "cash" even for me thanks to the promotion being run.  FIVE straight out of the money efforts - with two "PASS" races in the time frame completed a three hour skid for the day.  But, I had two races left to close out the day.  When handicapping the Gulfstream card and I saw that the finale was a non-winners of two lifetime on the all-weather I almost just wrote "not interested," but I looked through the field.  Riveting Spirit caught my eye and then I read the stat that trainer David Fawkes - who was off to a sizzling start with eight wins from eighteen starters (over 40%) had won with SIX-of-TEN starters on the synthetic surface.  He'd obviously found something that worked!  So I doubled the bet on this runner.  Last into the far turn, then began circling the field picking off horses one by one.  At the eighth pole he'd drawn on even terms with the leaders and then drew off as much the best.  Cashed for nearly $25 to end the skid.

"Cashed" Three Tickets Thanks To The Money-Back Promotion :)

And with that win I had my first cashed ticket on the GP synthetic track.  It was my observation - at least today - that the surface was fair.  Front runners that should have run well, did.  Pace pressers that should have run well had every chance.  And late runners, like Riveting Spirit also had a fair race track to run on.  Down to the final pick of the day, in the Keeneland finale.  And I came right back with another winner.  This time at a generous 4/1 price.  Santin was the DRF "BEST Bet" of the day and considering that this was an allowance turf event and that the colt was exiting a maiden debut win at Indiana Grande there'd better be some solid evidence to support this.  The running line seemed to point out he must have had some ability as he closed through very pedestrian splits going two turns - something that's not easy even with a good pace set-up - and won going away.  Could he translate that kind of maiden form at "the big track" while facing winners?  He was well off the pace into the far turn but when asked accelerated visually and swept by them all while at least six wide and blew by the leaders in mid stretch to win going away.  Wish I'd have doubled the bet so I'd have doubled the winnings, but still collected nearly $30 on the final play on just a minimum bet.

I decided to check out the entries for the Sunday races and see if I could sneak in some "mortal locks" to "pad my stats" for the weekend and I found four that I liked.  Read what the local/online handicappers said and went with three of them.  I won the first two; missed by a nose with the third; and the one at Santa Anita I passed on won as well.  Still, I'll take the 2-for-3 afternoon which produced a flat profit - small, I'll grant you, but in the black!

1st Bonus Bet:  Miles D RUNS AWAY in the Keeneland Opener

2nd Bonus Bet:  Miles D JUST UP IN TIME in Belmont 4th

Not exactly how you want a prohibitive favorite to score :)

Social Media Friends

It was a big week of connecting with my social media gal-pals.  Our very own Florida Panthers kicked off their 2021-22 season with most loyal fans, like us, hoping this might be THE YEAR that we make a run for the Stanley Cup.  On Opening Night Kim and I were in our seats as the 'Cats roared back from a 2-4 deficit in the third period to win 5-4 in overtime in dramatic fashion.

And early in the night two of my gal-pals, Jessica Blaylock and Katie Gaus posted a "we're back" photo to which I replied we were there as well and they both reacted to my posting.

That weekend we went to Orlando and spent time with Brad and his family, and I enjoyed watching the Panthers win their second game with my son.....and with his son as well.

The next Monday was the start of Homecoming and Spirit Week at my old high school, Cypress Bay and my very good friend, and current principal Kassandra posted a photo of it being "Hippie Day" to which I replied and she reacted.

The following day two of my girls had big "life events."  Madi, who'd served as our top manager at Oasis High last fall turned 18 and I wished her a happy birthday.  And Michelle - a former WISE student turned airline attendant for Delta Airlines - got engaged, to which I sent my congrats.

I had back to back "conversations" with my most favorite anchor, Lauren Pastrana on the next day.  First with her selfie where she reflected on her short stature and then on a post from Lissette Gonzalez who usually does the morning weather, but was reunited with Lauren for the evening broadcasts this week.

On Wednesday of that week I saw a story on the CBS-4 News and online about Royal Caribbean launching a 275 day "Around The World" Cruise with staterooms starting at "just $64,000."  So I reached out to my most favorite of favorite former students, Kimmy - who just had a baby girl about a month ago - and we had a nice long conversation (FYI - she can get me 20% off the cruise so it would only be a little more than $50K each for Kim and I to go - uh, no).  That night we were back at the Panthers game at FLA Live Arena and our girl Katie was on the big jumbo-tron, so I reached out to her and got a reaction.

On Thursday the announcer from Gulfstream Park, "Announcer Pete" put out a video about a handicapping charity contest he was in and I reached out to him and got his reaction.  And then that evening I had two more conversations with my adorable announcer pal, Lauren.  First in response to my reaction to her and Lissette sporting pink for Breast Cancer Awareness; and then Lauren herself did a spot on our Florida Panthers which led to another exchange :)

Finally later Friday night I caught up with my other most favorite anchor gal-pal, Karli Barnett.  I'd noticed she'd not been around lately and wondered why.  Well she herself provided the answer in her picture posts....she was enjoying a European vacation in Barcelona.  Kim and I were there three years ago, and saw toured the exact cathedral Karli was visiting.  Very cool.  Of course I had to tell her and she replied back.  What a "social butterfly" I am in the virtual world, eh?

And finally, on Sunday, my good friend Jeff Nelson's adult daughter Chloe - who has become a budding DJ superstar in Georgia - posted a photo upon her return to visit friends in Nashville....and we exchanged comments :)  She is so cute.