Monday, November 6, 2023

Breeders' Cup Weekend

 November 3 - 4:  Breeders' Cup 2023
I'm In Ohio!

On Monday prior to the big Breeders' Cup weekend I flew into Ohio to visit my family (while Kim flew to Pennsylvania to visit hers).  I was able to complete the handicapping by the end of the day Wednesday so that on Thursday when I drove to Cincinnati to see our great friends Mary Pat and Tom I was finished with my "work."  Had a great day as we went to a winery, sat out on their deck before dinner and spent the evening together.  Got up the next morning around 7am, had a cup of coffee together and then headed back to Columbus.  Arrived at my Mom's house about 10 am, in plenty of time for the start of the racing from Santa Anita.

Future Stars Friday

Especially because I was visiting my Mom I decided that for the Breeders' Cup weekend I'd only play the races from Santa Anita.  Today I had selections on a card that featured eight two-year-old races including all five Breeders' Cup events.  I had the short priced favorite in the 2nd, the Golden State Juvenile Fillies and was a little wary when the trainer of the second choice was interviewed minutes before the race and he was extremely confident.  He won and I was a fading third.  Then in the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes down the unique hillside turf course I had the lead in mid-stretch but was caught late to finish second.  Initially I was "ok" with both results because I had opted in on a promotion to get your money back if you ran 2nd or 3rd, but then later saw it was ONLY for the Breeders' Cup events.  Finally in the first BC event, the Juvenile Turf Sprint I had the winner.  Big Evs was a Euro import who reportedly was exceptionally quick.  I knew he had to overcome running the "wrong way" and around a turn for the first time, but I still thought he looked best.  He pressed the 6/1 front runner into the lane and edged clear in the final furlong to get me the win at a very fair $8.40 price.

In the Juvenile Fillies nearly everyone thought lightly raced Tamara, the 4/5 favorite was the second coming of her momma Beholder.  She looked sharp turning for home.  But in her 2-turn debut she weakened to be a disappointing 7th.  In the Juvenile Fillies Turf I was third and in the Juvenile - which I thought was completely wide open, only to see a Todd Pletcher - John Velazquez colt runaway by a pole at double digit odds (what was I thinking!) and I was 2nd with my pick.  BUT with the promotion I got my money back on both of those.  In the finale, an allowance sprint my pick, a Bob Baffert colt was easily best.  Closed out the day with two wins but "cashed" on four of the seven with a minimal loss.


Championship Saturday

The BIG DAY kicked off in grand style for me.  The opener was what used to be the BC Marathon and there's just no figuring a thirteen furlong dirt race, so I passed.  The second was the Grade 2 Twilight Derby for 3yo on the turf.  I thought IF the favorite ran his "best" he'd win easily - and I'd won with him earlier in the year - but I was skeptical he'd do that.  I went with a lightly raced runner making his stakes debut.  His last two starts earned Beyers of 88 and 90 which were both better than anything on the page and if he continued to improve he'd be very dangerous.  The rider gave him a perfect ride....sat mid-pack while saving all the ground to the turn.  Moved up between runners approaching the top of the lane....found a seam to get clear and came flying on the outside.  Even though the final margin was narrow I was never in doubt once they reached the furlong pole.  And the pest part....he went off at 7/1 allowing me to start the day by cashing a $40 plus ticket!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

The "feel good" story of thoroughbred racing all year, dating back to last year's Breeders' Cup has been Cody's Wish.  Named for a teenager with a debilitating disease he'd won the BC Dirt Mile last year and his only loss came when stretched out to nine furlongs at Saratoga in the Gr 1 Whitney (3rd).  I thought he'd prove best today but was concerned with his come from behind style on the speed-favoring So Cal track.  There was lots of speed, I thought and turning for home he was rallying strongly.  Looked like he'd go right on by but the Bob Baffert Preakness winner, National Treasure wasn't done.  Battled to the wire, PHOTO FINISH.  I thought we were the winner but then there was an INQUIRY for bumping in the final furlong.  Disallowed and I'm the winner! 

I was second at a nice 4/1 price in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf with a European but got my third win of the day in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  Goodnight Olive was the defending champion and I thought you could make excuses for the two losses she'd suffered during this year's campaign.  Especially with the speedy rival Echo Zulu out with an injury she looked to have a clear path to the winner's circle.  But like Cody's Wish the off-the-pace style was a concern.  She sat a little closer than usual and blew by into the lane and ran away as easily best.

The most satisfying race of the day turned out to come with my Best Bet of the Day in the Distaff.  Idiomatic had the best numbers and had three wins in a row.  Her last two had seen her dominate in front running fashion, but with relatively soft fractions.  ALL - and I mean A-L-L - the "experts" on the NBC telecast commented that she'd caught up in a speed duel and would "never win" today.  As the horses came on the track I remarked to my Mom, sister and niece who were watching with me that I was betting they were all wrong.  And I did so because her three back win came from off the pace.  Now granted she'd broken poorly and had been FORCED to rally, but to me that showed she did not have to have the lead.  Pressed the other front runner, got to the front through swift fractions and here came the closers.  But through the final furlong she would not let anyone pass her and I WON!

I was off the board in the final five races but the Seal Team win had virtually guaranteed a winning day and a winning weekend.  Here's how the numbers added up:

18 / 6 -3 - 2      33% WINS     PROFIT:  $37.00

With the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup World Championships I closed out the "Fall Championship Racing Season" and ran all my numbers.  It was a good fall with the abbreviated schedule I followed.  We're now just a few weeks away from Opening Day of the Gulfstream Championship Meet so I'll be recharging and gearing up for the daily handicapping schedule of the "home-town" meet!

116 / 43 - 24 - 13
WIN:  37.1%     ITM:  69.0%
Avg Pay:  $5.42     ROI:  $2.01


Social Media This Week.......

The first and one of the coolest things about the week came when my long-awaited hosting of an episode of Viking TV aired on the Monday following the Breeders' Cup.  The build up led to a lot of my social media pals reacting to the exciting event, including a series of emails from "my Viking TV girl" Ciara.


Maybe it's just me, but gal-pal and CBS-Miami anchor Lauren Pastrana and I seem to have "a thing" that she almost "expects" me to reach out several times a week.  And unlike what's gone on in the past, I almost always get not only a reaction but often a comment.  This happened multiple times this week.





I thought it was so very sweet of my "other" gal-pal, news anchor Karli Barnett to reply to a post I'd sent her and Lauren separately.  I'd posted about the upcoming episode on Viking TV and then sent it just to the two of them.  Karli took the time to remark I'd be a good host.  Then on her weekly FB chat I thanked her for that and again she complimented me :)


My new friend Petra and I chatted a couple times and the most recent was more gratifying because she reached out to me first as she returned from a two week holiday to work on the Nile River cruise ships for Viking.



Kimmy, my most favorite former student replied to my text sharing the big TV episode as did another of my former students, former news anchor Erica.


Our "adopted daughter" Jillian also messaged me about how cool this was and she was one of the first to react to the episode.  Very appreciative :)

Amber

Finally got a reaction from the very first student I mentored in the WISE program, Amber on Halloween :)