Opening Weekend at Keeneland
April 3-4
We had no longer returned from Europe and gone to the Florida Derby last weekend before immediately we were on the move with the beginning of the Spring Racing Season which is always highlighted by the Triple Crown races. The Opening Day card on Friday started with the first two-year-old race of the year, and if you follow racing you know that trainer Wesley Ward DOMINATES these races in Lexington. But the problem for me was that he had two in here. Waggley was the 7/5 morning line choice and by all accounts looked to be clearly the one to beat. But I was concerned because the "other" Ward runner, Suspicions, was OWNED by Wesley Ward. I found it hard to believe that he'd run his own juvenile against a better 2yo. The more experience and regular rider here in the spring for Ward, Joel Rosario was on Waggley. What to do? Then, Waggley scratched. Now it's easy. Suspicious broke a step slowly, pressed the pace to the turn. At a crucial moment on the turn when the one likely to upset made his move along the rail he got shut off and steadied briefly. Suspicious flew on the outside and drew off at a more than fair $4.80 payoff.
A dozen 3yo's were in a $50K starter allowance in R2. ELEVEN of them had nearly identical recent Beyers. Only Miss Call had run faster, and against better. But those were in her two-year-old races. If she ran back to those I thought she'd be tough. Broke mid-pack, slid to the rail and saved ground to the top of the lane. Split rivals and drew off by open lengths at a big $7.80 and suddenly I'm 2-for-2 and way ahead in the money column.
The next three were a PASS and two minimum bets which both ran third. I doubled the bet on Graham Motion's Without in an entry level allowance. Steadied to the back early, rallied to the front at the top of the stretch then was outrun to the wire, fifth. The Grade 2 Beaumont was a 7f test for 3yo fillies that probably serves as a prep for the Grade 2 Eight Belles on the Kentucky Derby undercard. One of my favorite handicappers from years gone by was the late Dave Liftin. One thing I learned from him was when a 3yo runs a Beyer in her 3yo start faster than their best as a 2yo, it's time to watch out in the next or subsequent race. A Fine Chardonnay had earned her best figure in an allowance race HERE as a 2yo. Her first start at three seemed to have been running to close to the leaders early one and finishing third, but she ran a new top. I thought she'd be dangerous with the "Liftin angle." Settled comfortably near the back, which I was glad to see, while outside in the clear. Circled the field at least six wide turning for home and blew by at the 16th pole to win at another generous price ($6.82) allowing me to cash for over $30 for the second time today.
Race 8 was the Grade 3 Transylvania for 3yo's on the turf. I noted that on the big Florida Derby card last Saturday, Gr 3 races were run for a $175K purse. This race carried a whopping $600K purse - who'd run on Derby Day if they could wait for Keeneland? Remember Mamba had aired in both career starts including his debut win HERE last fall. If you were looking at the dates of the races it wouldn't be hard to think trainer Cherie DeVaux had been pointing for this all winter. But turning for home he seemed so hopeless out of it. Eighth of eleven on the turn and worse, in and among horses and behind a wall of runners I was resigned to losing. But he shook free in mid-stretch and hit a whole other gear and ran two strides to every one of the horses in front of him and blew by to win at an even bigger price than A Fine Chardonnay had paid (paid $6.88), and I cashed for more than $30 for the third time today. It was remarkable to me that I ran 2nd at odds on with my BEST Bet in the Grade 1 Ashland in the next and lost the finale but still showed a profit of more than $40 while going a sharp 4-for-9.
Saturday
Saturday was not only Bluegrass Day at Keeneland, but it was Wood Memorial Day at Aqueduct and Santa Anita Derby Day out west. After missing with the the opener in New York I'd planned to pass the opener at Keeneland, and in fact had not even listed a horse in my brief analysis. But watching on FanDuel TV everyone was raving about Wesley Ward's 3yo Thailand. They showed a feature of Ward with the horse and he seemed ultra confident. Put down a double investment. Pressed the 6/1 leader into the turn while well in hand and drew off under a hand ride at even money.
Came right back in the 2nd at the Big A with Porosity. No one had earned a par figure or had the kind of resume I like in a second level event like this sprint. But this filly had won three of her last four (in a five race career), and came from leading trainer Linda Rice. Was last early behind an early pace then came with a flying rally to draw away late.
Missed on the next SIX including some awfully "obvious" choices that were short prices - should have seen this as a hint of what was to come throughout the day. But kept firing.....it's what I do. My top pick in the second at Santa Anita scratched so I re-read what I'd written about my second choice, Crude Velocity. I had noted that if this 3yo - the only sophomore in the field - was taking a lot of money he'd be the bet. He'd only been out for his debut but it had been sensational. Broke slowly AND was steadied on the turn, but still drew off in hand that day. Left the gate at 1-2 odds. Tracked the trio of front runners while four wide and in the clear. Swooped by at the top of the lane and drew off impressively. Stakes company has to be next for this guy.
More disappointments when I ran 2nd at 2-5 and 3rd at 6/5 before it was time for the Grade 3 Commonwealth from Keeneland. I'd seen and bet Brad Cox's Saudi Crown before and I was just a touch anxious when the analyst on TV pointed out his pattern of good race, bad race and noted he was coming off a good race. Uh oh. But on paper he looked best. Broke sharply but was pulled back to sit third to the top of the stretch then took off, drawing off easily.
After a sharp 2nd at 7/2 in the Grade 2 Appalachian at Keeneland I got my fifth win of the day at Aqueduct when Incentive To Pay scored in a second level allowance sprint. Part of the reasoning for making him a triple investment was he'd run off an 18 month layoff last time out and finished third behind Porosity - who'd won earlier today. Was under a tight hold into the lane and took off through the final furlong to score handily. Cashed for over $35.
After a no-show 7th in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland I was disappointed AGAIN when 3/5 Immersive was only second best in the Grade 3 Distaff at Aqueduct. Sigh...... But my spirits brightened about twenty minutes later when Mike McCarthy's 3yo filly Meaning was a handy winner of the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. I would have bet her anyway, but the fact that Bob Baffert's go-to rider Juan Hernandez - leading rider at the meet - jumped OFF the Baffert filly to ride here sealed the deal and led to upping the investment to a triple investment. Tracked inside to the stretch, shifted out to get clear running and was up in the final 200 yards at a "fair" 4/5 price.
Missed on the next two before it was time for the featured Grade 1 Bluegrass with 100 points on the line towards a berth in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. As the horses were in the paddock my oldest son Jeff called and asked who I liked in here. We agreed that the field did not look to have any standouts and I told him I liked Further Ado enough to put a minimum wager on him. The one angle I did like was that the colt had broken his maiden HERE with an eye-catching 20 plus length score. If he truly relished the Keeneland track he could run big today. After being steered wide through both turns to stay out of trouble he kicked into gear in the lane and drew off by a dozen or more lengths. As the replay ran I pointed him out to Kim and said, "Now we have to decide if this impressive performance means he's ready for a big effort in the Kentucky Derby OR does he just love Keeneland?" Once it went official and the payoff was posted I opened my Xpressbet "wagers" tab and saw a $10 bet - wait, I only bet $5. Double checked the race and the horse and YES....somehow I had upped the bet and instead of cashing for less than $10 I was collecting nearly $20. Oh sometimes it's better to be lucky that good, eh?
The last winner of the day came in Santa Anita's Evening Jewel where Mohaven went wire to wire as a short priced favorite with my "prime time" investment on board.
Next weekend's highlights will be the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland and the $1.25 Million Grade 1 Apple Blossom from Oaklawn.
