Fall Racing Week 12

 Saturday November 15:  Claiming Crown Day

The week started in South Florida with our first real cold front of the year when the thermometer read a brisk 48 degrees as I had coffee out on the porch.  On Tuesday my wife Kim left in the morning for a week in Erie to celebrate her Mom's birthday.  I also was heading north, to Ohio, but not until Friday afternoon so I had most of the week all alone.  Was fortunate to have handicapping to occupy a couple of the mornings....a night at the Panthers game on Thursday, and of course some daily contact with social media pals to keep me from being totally "alone."  Won the hockey game in an excellent game to be at with my wingman Enzo and buddy Phil flanking me in our front row seats.  The flight to Ohio was smooth as I occupied some of my time building a short preview - that I'll release next week on FB - of our upcoming trip to Europe for the Christmas Markets in Germany.

Originally I didn't know if the races would have anything worth while playing but then I saw that it was Claiming Crown Day at Churchill.  The multiple stakes races restricted to runners who've been in claiming events used to be the annual kick off event at Gulfstream's Championship Meet, and I knew I'd enjoy playing those races.  Then I discovered there were a couple of stakes events in NY so I added the Aqueduct program.  I thought I was done handicapping but Thursday morning I looked and saw there were multiple "looks pretty solid" runners on the Gulfstream program so I added their card as well.  Moderate 50 degree temperatures were the case my first morning in Ohio as I prepared for the late morning - 11:40am - opener in NY.  Looked too wide open so I passed there, and my pick in their second scratched so the first wager of the day took place at Gulfstream in their opener, a mile and a sixteenth on the first of SEVEN Tapeta events....this one a maiden claimer.  The one and only question was if you believed that No Time To Wait would run back to his July effort on the all-weather.  Earned a field best 61 Beyer that day when 4th and upped the figure in a two-turn turf event next out to 63.  No show in a one-turn dirt mile.  All three against maiden specials.  Today trainer Jose D'Angelo dropped him all the way to the bottom at $12.5K and I just had to believe he'd repeat those earlier two-turn numbers.  Tracked the two leaders into the turn while confidently handled.  Inhaled them with ease and drew off without taking a deep breath.  That he was NOT 1/5 was amazing and I gladly accepted the $3 payout on a $2 bet with my double investment to start the day.

The third was a nw1x allowance event and while I've seen this on occasion before, I STILL do not know what hidden conditions would allow Blue Kingdom to be in this field.  The conditions were for non-winners of $20K other than or three races lifetime.  She'd won four races and was exiting back-to-back allowance wins which carried purses higher than allowed under the conditions.  She'd led into the lane in her most recent going nine furlongs in the Maryland Million Classic.  She was a recent claim for top national claiming trainer Jamie Ness and she looked to be the easiest winner on the front end.  Cleared the field in the first two jumps and led by daylight the entire 7f trip.  How she paid 4/5 I'll never know but was happy to take everyone's money for my second win in a row.  I noted for R2 at Gulfstream that as short a price as you'd expect on No Time To Wait in a basement maiden affair, the price on Julee's Legacy in a $6.25K claimer going 6f was certain to be even lower.  She was 4-for-8 in So Fla and 5/3-2-0 at the 6f trip.  Her LAST SEVEN Beyers would beat 131 of the 132 numbers on the page.  Oh my.  If you were trying to beat her you'd bank on she hadn't run since July and had been claimed for $20K only to have the claim voided.  But, for me, just too good.  And carrying our daughter's name it was an easy bet to make.  Right to the front, opened up by half a dozen on the turn and won by a widening pole as the prohibitive favorite......3-for-3!

The fourth at the Big A was my first "big" bet of the day on Todd Pletcher's Scope in a 2yo MSW turf route.  Was even the DRF Best of the Day, and DRF analyst Mike Beer next to never goes with the favorite as his pick, much less as his Best.  A belated fourth - and I had to smile noting that I was now 3-for-4 on the day but had lost a little money.  Ohhhh racing, you gotta love it!  In the fifth at Aqueduct I put Master of Arms on top but initially listed the race as a "PASS" race.  His numbers towered over the field and two back he'd beaten $16K claimers with a big 86 Beyer and was claimed by Linda Rice.  He tried allowance company which was too strong, but what worried me was first off the claim he earned a 74 Beyer, his slowest in two years.  Could he bounce back.  When he took all the money I decided to jump in.  Effortlessly swept to the front on the turn and opened up.  Had to work to maintain the daylight advantage but still was a clear winner for my fourth score of the day.

Accelerate Me looked best to me in Gulfstream's 4th, a cheap $8K nw2L event going a one-turn mile on the main track.  His likely rival had led the way when they met last time out and Accelerate had run by him despite facing winners for the first time.  Broke sharply but taken back off the pace.  I thought I was in trouble when the rider was asking him hard on the turn, but he rallied wide and edged clear in the final 16th of a mile and I cashed my fifth ticket on the day.

Ran 2nd and 3rd in two stakes from Churchill before they were going to the gate in the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks at Aqueduct, a marathon mile-and-three-eighths turf test restricted to 3yo fillies.  Fionn was a multiple graded stakes winner but had run a struggling fourth behind today's rival Laurelin last time out in Keeneland's Grade 1 QE II where Laurelin suffered her first loss in five starts.  I'd had Laurelin when she won the Penn Oaks and she looked talented enough, but I thought today would be a bounce back day for Fionn.  She was sent off at a "fair" 7/5 with Laurelin being the even money favorite.  The two moved in tandem wide off the turn and for a few strides it looked like I'd be second best behind the favorite, but in the final 200 yards she found another gear and surged to the front!

The sixth at Gulfstream was a five and a half furlong sprint on the all-weather, again, for 2yo maiden specials.  Shipmate looked like a very legitimate favorite except.....he'd never run on the all-weather.  But he'd debuted at the strong Keeneland Fall meet in a turf sprint.  Broke poorly but rallied strongly to only miss by two lengths.  But the key for me was his work pattern.  Before the Kentucky debut he showed "OK" works.  But since then two near bullets:  2nd best of 69 and 2nd best of 76.  His Beyer was double digits faster than anyone else's.  IF he took to the synthetic he'd be long gone.  I noted, "watch the board for clues."  As the betting progressed he was being pounded in all the pools.  Upped the bet to a triple investment.  Broke sharply on top, challenged at the top of the lane by a 20/1 outsider and for a moment it was "UH-OH" - but he rebroke and drew off handily!

The fifth in Louisville was the second of the eight added money Claiming Crown events.  This one was the Claiming Crown Tiara going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  The race was restricted to fillies and mares who'd raced for a $25K claiming tag or less.  Ashima had seven turf starts and had hit the board in six of them.  What appealed most to me was in her last four turf tries she had two wins, a photo finish second and a close third in an allowance behind a multiple stakes winner with Beyers of 80-78-88-81 - all of which would win today.  AND last January she won the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf.  Mid-pack into the turn, "buried behind runners" as track announcer Travis Stone called it.  Sliced between rivals, burst into the clear and shot to the front through the final 16th.  Paid a generous $6.78 so I cashed for over $30 on my first Claiming Crown winner.

After running fourth at 4/5 in New York I liked Curlin's Malibu in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse.  When he was NOT the favorite and drew a lot of attention from the on-air analysts at Churchill I probably should have upped the bet.  But his lifetime 40/5-7-8 resume was sketchy.  STILL willing to go with him because he had a new trainer and all three starts under his care had been sharp.  He was running mid-pack until he got shuffled back approaching the turn.  Asked for run he accelerated between runners, split rivals into the stretch....dueled and edged clear late.  The payoff of nearly $9 would have would have produced more than $40 on return had I upped the bet, but still I was happy to cash for over $20 - my second "nice priced" Claiming Crown stakes winner.  

A little over ten minutes after the Claiming Crown Iron Horse went official they were headed to the gate in the co-featured Knickerbocker Stakes at Aqueduct.  Ohana Honor was my pick, and for me you had to look past his 18/3-5-3 lifetime resume to bet with confidence.  The $430K sales grad was trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.  And if you scanned down his pp's to March of 2024, since then he'd run in eight races.  Seven of the eight earned Beyers of 90 or better (97-98-99-100-95-96), and would all win here.  AND in five of his last six starts he'd faced graded foes while picking up minor checks in four of those.  Third off the bench with top jockey Flavian Prat on board.  Settled mid-pack to the far turn where Prat moved outside into the clear.  Rallied three-wide past the leader and drew off convincingly through the lane.

After the Ohana Honor win I stood at 11-of-15 on the day and with a clear profit.  I'm having a very good day.  But you know how racing goes.... over the next two and a half hours I went 0-for-6 with two seconds including losses at 4/5, 1/1 and 2/5.  WOW.  The final play of the day came in the Claiming Crown Emerald going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf under the lights and the Twin Spires.  When I'd gone to Churchill Downs for "Downs After Dark" in June I'd scored with Echo Lane.  His last Beyer made him just another runner, but his previous seven would make him the winner.  Tracked in third to the turn, was revved up by jockey Luis Saez as he confronted the leader at the 16th pole and then drew off through the final 200 yards.  AND best of all, on my third Claiming Crown winner he paid a generous payout again - $6.90 allowing me to cash for over $30 and edged me back into the black for the day!

Echo Lane scores at Downs After Dark in June

Enjoyed the day of racing and being in Ohio for the five days.  Saturday's Results boosted the Fall stats for win percentages for sure with only two weeks left before the opening of Gulfstream's Championship Meet on Thanksgiving Day.  

Weekend pics of our trips up north

Social Media this week

So my pretty wife Kim left for Erie, PA on Tuesday morning leaving me nearly four full days to myself.  And in this "era" where I have little face-to-face human contact I had to rely on my social media pals to keep me company.  So I ran a screen saver of my "peeps" and how we'd interacted, but still not the same.  And as I watched the photos scroll I was reminded of just how lucky I am to have such a sweet and beautiful wife.....who continues to always be the best looking girl in the room no matter where we are.  Made me grab some "recent" photos of her as a montage :)

I don't have much contact with gal-pal Jessica who was my "go-to girl" at Ford's Garage in Fort Myers a few years ago.  Several evenings when I was in town alone, Kim on the other coast, I'd go to Ford's for dinner and Jessica would spend a lot of time with me chatting.  She had a new born then and now has a second....boy how they've grown.  When I reach out to her with comments I nearly always get a reactions, so I'm happy she still "knows me."

Former school gal-pal and graduation committee helper Sha had her birthday this week.  She appreciated my birthday wishes.

I had a three-way conversation with buddy Jeff Nelson, his wife Gina, and their daughter - my gal pal Chloe.  Chloe was sad to tell me she wouldn't be coming to the Florida Derby but had a very good comment for my Breeders' Cup adventure with my son Brad.

Former weekend morning anchor Teri posted a cute pic of herself....I reacted and she replied.  Teri is really good about nearly always at least "liking" what ever I post / send to her.

I find it oh-so-cool that Saturday (and this has happened several times) while watching football in Ohio....playing races from New York, Louisville, and So Fla, I was chatting with my girl Petra as she sailed down the Nile River in Egypt!  Technology!!!  I was particularly happy when I asked her for a recent pic and she had the Guest Services Team do a group photo for me.  Viking staff are the best.

Like most weeks, the most social interaction came with my buddy Lauren Pastrana.  When the weather was due to turn chilly and we'd have, as she calls them, a "coffee in a hoodie" morning I reached out during the news and she quickly "liked" my comment.  The next day I saw a reel Lauren posted about an upcoming investigative piece.  When I messaged her about it she wrote me right back that it would be a "good one!"  Then on Tuesday evening she had on a cool pair of boots - she enjoyed my comment admiring them....and later that evening I happened to have the news on at 7pm and the local news cast was back in place of the national news.  This had been Lauren's domain as a solo anchor.  I asked her about it and she responded she tried to get it but it was given to another reporter.  Boooooo.  Thursday I messaged her that I was going to the game and was hoping for a story at 11pm about a Panthers win.  Got an almost immediate heart to that.  Friday shortly before leaving for the airport I reached out to tell Lauren I was off and would be following via the streaming service and/or Direct TV and she again liked my message before I even left for the airport.  But the best was on Saturday when Lauren started a donation page for a local charity.  I admire her work in the community and typically when she does this I will contribute.  I did so and quickly she wrote to me in reaction to her 11pm story (she liked that) and messaged me her appreciation :)

To "keep me company" I watched a screen saver of my interactions with my favorite social media girls - the best of the photos they've posted online of themselves.....

Fall Racing Week 11

 Saturday November 8

When I was working at Cypress Bay High School one of my big responsibilities outside the classroom was to be in charge of graduation.  We had, at the time the largest graduating class in the United Stakes with over 1,200 seniors marching across the stage in a ceremony that lasted three hours and change each year.  It took a lot of help from the staff and one of my best gal-pals on staff, who also mentored many of my WISE students was Jennifer "Cookie" Cook.  We've always stayed in touch and nine years ago we met at Gulfstream.  Recently I'd suggested we meet for lunch to catch up in person and Jen suggested a track day so we met at Gulfstream on Saturday.  While I didn't profit money like I did at the Breeders' Cup last weekend, I did hit winners in nine of twenty-six races....that's 35% for those of you without a calculator.....my typical win percentage!  I had handicapped four tracks for the day and the first post in New York was an early one at 11:40 am and it was a second level allowance event going a one turn mile.  The lightly raced filly would test the theory that Beyer speed figures are transferrable across tracks, surfaces, class levels, and in this case DISTANCES.  Having learned, years ago, how to make speed figures and made them I am aware that they are not the be all, end all in handicapping.  So you have to consider other factors.  Based on Beyers alone 'Data would be a daylight winner.  She had two other very strong angles in her favor - she'd "paired" figures in her two recent starts - since coming off a nineteen  month layoff, and those two numbers were BOTH faster than any of the combined 89 figures earned by today's rivals - the Double Beyer Advantage angle.  BUT....she'd never gone a route of ground.  In her two recent starts she'd gone wire-to-wire, but in her maiden win in 2024 she showed the ability to pass horses.  I doubled the bet.  Collect The Data easily got to the front but was hounded by a long shot.  Front runners that are pressured, especially stretching out often can't last.  But you could see that jockey Manny Franco had a ton of horse and was riding confidently.  Opened up turning for home and drew off by a pole for the first winner on the day.

Next up was the opener at Gulfstream.  Jen & her husband had said they would arrive about 12:15 and with a 12:25 post time they should have been able to make the race, but they were a little bit late.  I waited until the horses approached the gate and then went to the rail to watch Longbranch Lou go two turns on the synthetic surface in a starter optional claiming event.  I don't have the statistics to support the theory, but I've always felt that jockey Miguel Vasquez is the best local rider on the Tapeta and he was on board 'Lou who'd run well on this surface against better.  Was pounded down to a short price as they went into the gate.  Settled comfortably near the back until they approached the far turn.  Moved up between rivals, took command at the 16th pole and edged clear.  Two-for-two!

The second at Laurel was a very modest $16K maiden event where the last out Beyers were S-L-O-W indeed.  But Sticktothesystem was new to the Brittany Russell barn and dropping in class.  Quickly cleared the field and went wire to wire without ever being threatened.....I'm off to a 3-for-3 start!

Not saying Jen & Mike were bad luck, but they arrived at this point in time and I quickly lost three in a row :O  But the first stakes event of the day was coming up at Aqueduct, the Pumpkin Pie at 7f for older fillies & mares.  Weigh the Risks had started her career on turf but had blossomed when moving to the main track and at this distance.  Had earned a huge 101 BSF at Saratoga last time out in a conditioned allowance event.  Because she was coming off a layoff and had won like that before I doubled the bet.  Stalked the leaders through the turn, swept to the front and held the challengers off late for my fourth winner on the day.

We were finishing lunch together - and the Cook's generously bought my lunch - as my pick at Churchill was well behind.  As we headed out to our box seats on the finish line, my pick in the 4gh, Monster was a short priced favorite.  I'd noted that if he took a lot of money I'd consider upping the wager.  So I doubled the bet on the 2yo.  Cleared quickly and was a runaway winner.

I came right back in the third at Churchill in a restricted MSW race where Bolt Dior was the pick.  I found it very interesting that the barn was based at Presque Isle in Erie, where they have a synthetic track and they'd shipped the filly to Keeneland.  She was a sharp 2nd at 11/1 against strong rivals.  I tripled the bet on her.  Stalked the leaders, edged to the front at the top of the lane.  Battled and gradually inched clear late!  Off to a 6-for-9 start and it seems like it's going to be a great day!

Unfortunately that win in Churchill's 3rd was it for a L-O-N-G time as I proceeded to miss on the next TEN selections.  Said my good-byes to Jen and headed home around 4pm knowing I had a couple of late races that could maybe get me back close to even.  Balboa was a former Bob Baffert runner moved to Brittany Russell's barn at Laurel and she'd entered him in the JF Lewis Stakes for the first try under her conditioning.  Tracked the leaders effortlessly to the stretch and ran away.  OK, here we go!  But no.  The last three selections ran 2nd, 3rd, and off the board.

A quick word about my pal Jen.  At "our age" the conversation often turns to medical issues related to aging but she shared how COVID had left her with some brain damage.  She seemed perfectly sweet and normal to me, but she told me how sometimes she has no idea where she is or why and/or who the people she is with are - such as her first day back to work at Cypress Bay she had no idea who anyone was and only that she thought she worked there.  That's scary.  Wishing her all the best!

Sunday I decided to look at the entries for the day and found two horses that looked awfully like sure things so I went into my TwinSpires account and bet on the both.  The easiest kids of winners as Courting ran away with the second at Aqueduct and then My Miss Mo won by the length of the stretch at Gulfstream.  I get it - but it never hurts to pad your stats and pick up a couple "free dollars!"

Social Media this week.....

On my first week back home I had several different online friends that I interacted with.  One former CBHS WISE student, Jessica and I often "see" each other on Facebook but it's not often that she posts or reacts regularly to my postings.  She's got two kids and when she posted a photo of her family I reacted to how quickly they've grown....and she replied.

My Florida-Derby gal-pal, country-western DJ, and daughter of my great friend Jeff Nelson, Chloe posted two photos on her Instagram account (we're friends on this platform as well as on FB and thru text messages0 and she reacted to my comments.

If you asked me who my favorite former student from all my years of teaching was, three names would immediately pop to mind and I'd have a hard time separating the three of them.  I keep in very close contact with two of them, Kimmy & Mandy, but I don't hear from Tati very often.  We recently connected on Instagram as well as on FB and when she posted a sweet photo of her, her husband and their little boy I commented.  Normally when I reach out and/or comment on her posts I add a "miss you" as I do miss seeing and chatting with her.  But what touched me on this occasion was I did NOT add that phrase, but Tati didn't just give me a heart for liking the comment or just reply, but she wrote back, "miss you always."  How sweet is my girl?

In the most unexpected social media exchange of the week, former weekend anchor and gal-pal Karli Barnett reached out to me on several posts.  Since moving to Atlanta and becoming an anchor at one of their news stations - and winning her first Emmy by the way, go Karli! - she often doesn't get a chance to see my posts and/or react to them until days or weeks later.  This week she reacted to several things I'd sent her about my travels and the Breeders' Cup.  And ironically while watching TV on Friday I happened to open FB and she was live like she used to be regularly.  We exchanged greetings :)

I sent a pic of me at the races to gal-pal Teri, the former weekend morning news anchor and she nearly immediately reacted to it.

My most regular social media pal, Lauren Pastrana also interacted with several things I sent her this week.  Always appreciate that she takes the time to acknowledge our friendship.

Finally, one last Jen thought.  It was great to see her & her husband Mike and to catch up.  As I said to her on Saturday, it was interesting to me that we interacted like we'd just seen each other last week.  It's the beauty of social media.  And I did remark to her about that, saying there wasn't any way either of us would pick up the phone and call each other or, as in the old days write each other a letter.  But through FB and it's messaging system we are still in contact frequently keeping our friendship alive and well!