August 31 - Sept 6: Closing Week
The week began early and was extended late due to the Labor Day Holiday. The first win of the week came with the first pick of the week on Tuesday. That's right, we once again began the week early, and it was at Parx in Philadelphia. That's because last week on Smarty Jones Day the scheduled Grade 3 Parx Dash was washed off the grass. Management made the decision to cancel the race and move it to this week. MOST of the field remained intact and I still liked my top choice from last week, The Critical Way enough to be a "prime time" play. He seemed to have his front-running rival in his sights as they hit the top of the lane but a HUGE longshot burst through on the rail and opened up with a clear lead while The Critical Way was wide into the lane. Began eating into the margin but the wire was coming fast....PHOTO FINISH! Was nearly certain I'd won, but that was a lot closer than I'd have thought it would be. Still - cashed!
Wednesday and Thursday were pretty unproductive. Only Saratoga KEY Plays on Wednesday. The first one scratched; ran 2nd in the 4th - won with the 9/5 favorite Freudian Fate in the 8th and missed at 4/5 in the Grade 3 With Anticipation for 2yo runners to close the day. On Thursday Kim and I headed over to Cape Coral to see the grandsons and to watch our older son (Jeff) coach the Riverdale Raiders football team in their home opener against North Fort Myers. Went winless with five selections from the Saratoga & Del Mar. Friday wasn't much better - but Kim and I did enjoy lunch with our great pal Anya and her husband Jack at our favorite Cape Coral restaurant, Ford's Garage. I had picks from Monmouth, Saratoga & Del Mar on Friday and won with the first one and the next to last one - that was it. But if I had to trade that for a win by the Riverdale football team, I'm ok with that. And we did hang on to score a 13-6 victory. Mid-morning Saturday Kim and I were back on the road to return home. I divided my time between watching the college football games and my limited selections from Monmouth, Saratoga & Del Mar. Well, let's be up-front and honest here....there was more attention to the football because from the first post for me at 12:15 pm until almost 5 pm I had two, count them....2 winners from 13 selections. WOW. But, the good news was I closed the day by winning six of the last nine, including the two BIG Bets - AND the most anticipated race of the day. Here's how the latter part of the afternoon and evening played out.....
In the eleventh at Monmouth I "kind of" liked Friendly Fella in this starter event. I was a big leery because she'd just won two weeks ago, and that was in a starter who had run for $8K or less, or a $16K price tag. And today she was in under conditions that required you to have raced for $6.25K or in for a $12.5K tag. Dropping off a win and right back on short rest? Hmmmm. Decided to go ahead for the minimum. Rated to the far turn, took over and drew off as the 8/5 favorite.
Right back in Del Mar's third, a six and a half furlong sprint under starter allowance conditions! Took Charge looked best, but I was edgy about him being caught in a speed duel. Top rider Flavian Prat got her loose on the lead and she held off the competition to give me back-to-back wins.
I had a "Club play" at Saratoga and was a whopping 29/1 in Saratoga's 10th. Rad to his odds, twelfth. Then it was time for the feature at Monmouth, The Red Bank and my pick here - Chad Brown's Value Proposition - was my BET of the Weekend. This Klaravich runner had been my top pick in the Lure Stakes at Saratoga a month ago, but as the field began to load into the gate jockey Irad Ortiz began gesturing animatedly to the gate crew. Value Proposition had lost a shoe. After some deliberation she was allowed to run, but for purse money only. Now back with what I thought was softer company, and with all four shoes on (duh), I thought he'd run big for Paco Lopez. EASILY for Paco's remarkable seventh win on the day. WOW.
Less than a half an hour later it was time for the Saratoga feature, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Bill Mott had unveiled a monster turf marathon female in War Like Goddess earlier in the summer. I had her last time when she dominated the Grade 2 Glen Falls here. Looked even more formidable today. The only concern - on paper - was no pace to set up her late kick. But she seems so talented that this probably would not batter. Didn't - blew bay as tons the horse with a "prime time" bet on board for me :)
Missed two and then it was the "story of the day." If you recall - if you follow my racing adventures - three weeks ago one of MY horses, Got Stormy, was running in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. I went back and forth about betting on her and in the end decided to go with my handicapping selection and I'd be content if she won with the owner's share of the payout. She DID win and I missed a generous payday. So the feature at Del Mar on this Saturday afternoon was the Grade 2 John Mabee on the turf. MY horse, Going To Vegas was entered and was a contending 4/1 in the program. I was encouraged that the DRF's Brad Free made her his top choice. I said to myself, I'm NOT making the same mistake again and I too made her my betting selection. She sat THE most ideal trip under new rider Flavian Prat - the top So Cal jockey - as our regular rider went with the program favorite. Not sure what the crowd saw, but they made our filly the favorite and Prat delivered. Sat right off the leader from the moment the gate latch sprung, then blew by and held off the closing rival with our regular rider. I tripled the bet and cashed for well over $40!
Found it interesting that for the time being we owners will NOT be paid as our managers are considering a start in the Breeders' Cup. Since Going To Vegas is NOT Breeders' Cup nominated we'd have to pay the entry fee which is not cheap. We all received a message that with this win and if we win our next start in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive then there would be enough winnings to pay the fee and we would seriously consider running in that prestigious event. If we don't run for what ever reason our share of the winnings will be distributed later on. The last race of the day saw Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert unveil a first time 2yo, Corniche who'd brought $1.5 Million at the sales ring. He ran like a superstar in his easy win as I scored for the eighth time today.
Sunday turned out to be the winningest day of the week as I piled on another TEN wins to the total. Right off the bat we were in the winner's circle at Monmouth as V.I.P. Who as he dropped in class and went two turns. Looking in his past performances he had mixed form UNLESS you filtered out only the two-turn trips like today. Looked strong. Everyone else say that as he went from 1/2 as they left the gate to 1/5 as they hit the back stretch. Easy-peasy-pie. Right back in the second, a maiden claiming turf sprint where I liked Adele Kat. Trainer Jimmy Ryerson shipped her down from Saratoga and dropped her in price. Sent off at a generous 2/1 and change under Paco Lopez she was trapped behind horses at the 16th pole. A seam opened and she exploded through.....PHOTO FINISH! Oh, so close, but another winner :)
Two-tof-two on the Jersey Shore to start the day, whoooo hooooo. Next pick on the selection sheet was a maiden event on the turf from Saratoga. Chad Brown was sending out Coalition Building on the class drop from a near-MSW ($75K) to this modest $40K spot. Tracked from the back half of the field to the turn, moved up while saving ground, then switched out into the clear heading for home and sprinted to the front to win by daylight.
Ran 6th at 13/1 in the fourth at the Spa with another Club play and then had yet another Chad Brown class dropper on the turf. There were two Klaravich runners in here, coupled in the betting. I preferred the class dropping Milestone Payment, who was trained by Brown and fit the Club criteria. But trainer Jorge Abreau was sending out first-time starter Party Line Vote. They shot out of the gate for the 5 1/2 furlong journey and right away things did not look good for "the pick" as 'Milestone was well out of it. But the entry-mate was right up on the pace, opened up turning for home and ran away. YAY - gotta love entries when the "other" one wins :)
Off the board at 5/2 on the Shore before winning my third race of the day at Saratoga, and another maiden event. This one however was NOT a club play, but rather an expensive Todd Pletcher 2yo debuting runner. First, the field was very un-Spa like in terms of apparent quality; second, Classy Edition had drawn a $550K bid at the sales ring, so SOMEBODY thought he could run; and finally, Irad was up on the program favorite. Swung up to join the trio of leaders four wide turning for home and then took off in a strong run to the wire - maybe the field wasn't very deep, but he was impressive in victory today.
Minutes later two-year-olds were filing into the gate at Monmouth for their feature - the Sapling Stakes, also for two-year-olds. But these colts would be going two turns and a mile in distance for the first time. I felt like Double Thunder had an edge as he was the only one who'd defeated winners when he came back off his maiden win to take Churchill's Bashford Manor. Was a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special last time out. The question was the distance. As the field turned for home he sat fourth and seemed to be traveling evenly as another colt surged to the front. But once his head was turned for home he found another gear and blew by to score going away.
Had a big 7/1 price on an Asmussen first time 2yo, second to the favorite. Good bet, no payoff. The tenth at Monmouth was a one-mile turf event for non-winners of two lifetime. Why Not Tonight had shown little in her first three starts, all one-turn dirt events. Moved to the inner around two turns and won for fun with a new career top some 20+ points above her previous best. Her next two saw her run fourth, with similar numbers, against BETTER and OPEN company. Today dropping in class from a starter allowance to a modest $16K nw2L - uh oh. Had no where to go turning for home, dcked to the inside and found a seam....blew by to win going away. WIN #7!
Somehow my pick in the 11th at Monmouth, the 3/5 favorite could do no better than second before it was time for the BEST Bet of the Day. On Opening Day at Saratoga the first Progressive Handicapping angle winner came home early in the day with Steve Asmussen's first time two-year-old filly, Echo Zulu. She was really sensational that day. And because I had plays every day I watched the "Saratoga Live" broadcast every day. At some point every week, and on most days....especially the last two weeks, conversation at some point turned to this filly and how special she had seemed to be. And that everyone was looking forward to seeing her run back in the Grade 1 Spinaway on Closing Weekend. Well, here we were. She was the solid 8/5 favorite in the program and was heavily bet as soon as the wagering opened. I felt fortunate that she went off at 3/5. Went right to the front, took heat through quick fractions (:22 - :44) - especially going seven furlongs, but at the top of the lane jockey Ricardo Santana gave the filly the cue and it was all over but the partying. Ran up the score by daylight and without being asked for her absolute best.
Three evening races from Del Mar remained on my sheet as I began watching the Florida Gators take on FAU in their season opener. Ran 2nd at 5/2 in the first of the trio before in the 8th I knew I had a M-O-S-T probable winner, but wouldn't make any money. Flightline was a 3yo who had debuted in April at Santa Anita for John Sadler. He'd WALKED with the race earning a stakes-worthy Beyer of 105 while stopping the six furlong teletimer at 1:08 and change. This turned out to be THE FASTEST six furlong time of any class for the entire meet. WOW. That he left the gate above 1/9 was a generous gift. Right to the front. Effortlessly widened with each stride in 1:08 and change again. YOWZA.
The last race of the day was in the finale of the card. Big Coupe had reached the "end of the line" as far as my handicapping was concerned. The 5x maiden (I just don't trust any runner who's failed six time to score, unless it's highly unusual circumstances) had earned the field's best figure when coming off the bench last time out and he got Flavian Prat today. If ever he would score it would be today. That he had two seconds and three thirds from his five starts made you question his desire to pose for pictures. But today, right to the front, managed perfectly by Prat, opened up in the lane and ran away to the easiest of wins for the big TENTH win of the day. Within the hour the Gators closed out the win and the 24-hour sports sweep was complete.....Riverdale Football - WIN / Going To Vegas - WIN / Florida Gators - WIN!!!
The final day of the summer season - although Monmouth continues to run for another month, I've found that the better horses and trainers have long since left, and I conclude my daily handicapping over the Labor Day weekend. The first play at Monmouth came in the 2nd, an allowance sprint where I thought Bronx Beauty deserved another chance. She had been in nothing but stakes all summer for her, and her last win was HERE last September in the Regret. It was of interest that her three losses this summer here were the first times she'd ever run here without winning. If you watch the highlight video below, inside the furlong pole she's wide, and apparently running evenly while at least three plus off the winner. But something kicked in and she blew by to get the victory at a generous 3/1 price.
Ran third at 3/5 and 8/5 in the next two on the sheet - the first the Gr 2 Bernard Baruch with a four horse field at Saratoga. Before in the fifth at Monmouth The Predicament was the pick. You have to use all the tools in the handicapping tool box and this one had nothing, really to do with the horse. Trainer Andrew Simoff is based at Delaware Park. He's brought six horses to Monmouth and won with FOUR while running second with another one. He knows how to spot them. Patiently handled in fifth along the inside to the top of the lane. Shot through an opening and burst through to score - again at a generous 3/1 price.
Missed in two before I got what turned out to be the final win of the Saratoga meet with Chad Brown's Consumer Spending in the 8th, a MSW for 2yo on the turf. On August 8th he'd run second to his entry mate - who'd been my top pick and now it was his turn. Drew off late at 3/2 for the win.
In the featured Grade 1 Hopeful EVERYBODY liked Todd Pletcher's Wit - sent off at 3/5 he made his big move into the lane, but instead of blowing by the leader he ran evenly to be second. Missed with the first play at Del Mar as the day wound down and then in the 7th Bob Baffert had two runners in a one mile allowance. I liked Leading Score to wire the field from the rail, but he scratched. Wasn't sure if I liked the uncoupled entry, Laurel River who'd never been two turns before. But Flavian Prat was up and he was being well bet. Moved the money to him. Wire to wire impressively!
And that did it for the day. But for the extended week, it was a good six days of handicapping:
Began totaling the numbers and check out how well Monmouth was.....
Closing Week Highlights
Summer Handicapping Totals
Social Media Action
So this week saw me in touch with a few of my social media friends. One of my best gal-pals at Cypress Bay when I worked there was Shari Bush. Her daughter Danielle had her 24th birthday this week. And the significance of Danielle to me is this - ever watch the CBS show "FBI?" The two partners that are featured are a guy and an attractive brunette girl. Well, Danielle is an FBI agent - and looking at her photos you'd NEVER guess that this attractive young woman is in "real life" the same kind of character portrayed on television every week - but she is!
I also reached out to my favorite television anchor Lauren Pastrana as she brightened the afternoon early in the week.
And I was in touch with my other most-fav anchor, Karli Barnett who - sadly - is a big Georgia Bulldog fan. I (as well as Lauren Pastrana) am a huge Florida Gator fan - big time rivals :) And then the first of the week Karli was in for Lauren on the evening anchor dress, in a "Gator Blue" dress. Had to reach out. She's such a good sport :)
Later, after the weekend LAUREN was in Gator Blue, so I reached out to her as well.....love playing with the girls :)
And lastly, my hottie-handicapper pal Acacia Courtney responded when I reached out to her on closing day at Saratoga.
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