I am so very ready to return to the daily handicapping and playing the races at the Gulfstream Championship Meet! I looked ahead at what stakes were running on Saturday and saw it was a really light weekend. So I made the decision to satisfy my daily handicapping itch and get in my plays for the final week over a five day span instead of just Saturday by playing all week at Churchill Downs. Here's how the week played out....
Wednesday
There were races carded for the day and I played eight of them. But I had minimum bets in three of them, including the first two. So I decided to play a Daily Double and a Pick-3. Haydens Havoc ran away with the opener and Osbourne was able to score in the second. Cashed on a $6 bet on the early double by playing the 1 with three horses in the second....cost $6, collected $6.40. LOL - but it's a win and a profit, albeit in dimes :) For the Pick 3 I had a triple investment on 1/5 favorite Steely Danza but after tracking the 15/1 front runner into the lane he couldn't get by. Really? Sigh.
Passed the fourth and missed at 7/2 in the fifth and ran 2nd with the 3/5 favorite in the 6th. The price play of the day was in the seventh, a starter allowance where I went against prohibitive favorite Inthemidstofbiz who looked too quick for these. BUT....I thought there might be just enough speed to soften him up and with the long Churchill stretch, I thought Flat Awesome Jenny - who was on a five race winning streak - could run her down. Exactly, EXACTLY as I had foreseen, except there was another late runner with "my Jenny" and it was a photo, but I got the bob and cashed for nearly $40 to close out the first day of the week.
Thursday
Another nine race card and I had six plays. Again I tried to make some money by playing a couple of Pick-3 tickets. Missed in the second after passing the first when the 6/5 choice ran fourth. In the third it was the BET of the Week as not only did Thomas Shelby look far better than his rivals, but he was the lone speed AND drew the rail. Right to the front and kissed this field a merry Thursday afternoon at 2/5. I played the "ALL" in the second leg of the P-3 and wouldn't you know it, the 1/2 favorite won. Sigh....in the final leg my pick, Opus Equus was bet down from the morning line to be odds on and was well played in the Pick-3 pool. But I'm "smarter than the average bear" (as Yogi Bear used to say!) and I upped the bet on 'Equus. He lasted after dueling through the lane and so I cashed on the WIN ticket and the Pick-3 to profit on the combined investments.
Came right back to win the sixth with Little Menace who went right to the front, got headed but re-rallied and opened up late. I had another Pick-3 sequence going with Bagboss in the 7gh, a MSW sprint going just 5 1/2 furlongs. He proved well worth the triple investment as the 3/5 favorite never was in danger. I played a double with him and my pick in the eighth. Of course - ran second to lose both multiple race wagers. But it was a good day with FOUR outright winners, and a P-3.
Friday
Today proved to be the day that "made the week." I scored in the opener when Tizafeelin came to the front runner at the top of the lane, appeared unable to get by, then at the 16th pole found another gear and ran by late. Passed on the second and missed in the third.
The fourth was a maiden claiming event for two-year-olds and after scanning the entries it was my opinion that there wasn't anyone in here who held a true edge over the rest. But it caught my eye that trainer Steve Asmussen was sending out Ridgepoint for this mid-level $30K tag with hot riding Tyler Gaffalione on board. He was 30/1 in the DRF program and I noted that I'd be playing him unless he was cold in the betting. With ten minutes to post time he was not getting much action at 8/1 and I thought, well, I'll just watch. But just to be sure I checked both the double and pick-3 pools. In both he was the second choice. Good enough for me! Went with the win ticket and immediately he was in the thick of it. Turning for home I didn't know if he'd be able to hold off the horse cruising up on the outside, but when asked he kicked away with authority.....and at a big 6/1 price! Cashed for nearly $40 and wished I'd upped the wager.
Passed the fifth and lost the sixth before coming to what I termed the "DAY-MAKER" play in the seventh, another maiden special for juveniles. As I noted in my analysis, I wouldn't have been surprised if the favorite won. But I just didn't like that he'd be going to the front and he'd yet been able to hold on to the wire. AND today he was going an additional furlong. Brad Cox was sending out a 2yo son of Classic Empire, and I've seen several of his youngsters win this year. The seven panels seemed a good fit for Rocket Dawg and that the connections had laid out $375K for him told me someone thought he could run. Jockey Florent Geroux had him mid-pack to the turn when he swept up quickly and inhaled horses to take command turning for home. Opened up and ran away as MUCH the best. And, he paid 9/2 odds meaning I'd cash for well over $50 on my last winner of the day! WHOOOO HOOOO.
Saturday
Today, after again looking at the other tracks running today, I confined my bets to just the races in Louisville. Passed two of the first three while missing as the 6/5 favorite in the 2nd race when finishing as the runner-up. In the fourth Money Mike looked VERY obvious. So much so that I decided to play a straight, $5 - yes, five dollar - Daily Double with my top choice in the fifth Li'l Tootsie. 'Mike cruised to a daylight lead right out of the gate and when challenged at the top of the stretch opened up to run away impressively. I was hoping to get a price on both the WIN and Double ticket as 'Tootsie was 5/1 in the program but she was played down to 6/5 with minutes before post time. But as they left the gate she floated up to better than 2/1. When she rallied last to first and drew off I was able to cash for nearly $25 on the Double ticket and another $30 and change on the WIN bet. VERY WELL played Mr. Mark!
Missed with three straight before Kim and I headed out to the Florida Panthers game. During the first intermission I opened up my Xpressbet app and watched the replay of the 10th, the featured Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes going a one-turn mile. I liked Obligatory who was unbeaten at Churchill Downs and had won the Grade 2 Eight Belles at a huge 16/1 price last spring as my "Day Maker" play. I'll grant you that she had two dud races since then, but she also had three sharp efforts. That she was running under the Twin Spires and there looked to be a contested pace in front of her made her a solid choice for me. I tripled the bet. She was near the back through sizzling opening half mile splits then glided up five wide into the lane picking off horses one by one. As she reached the leaders there would be no duel as she inhaled them and drew off without being asked through the final 16th for my third winner of the day.
In an interesting twist, while online during the break I was checking to see who had "liked" the photo of Kim and I at the game when I noted CBS-4 anchor Karli Barnett (who I've communicated a lot) was hosting another Saturday night live chat. I opened it up and said Hi, noting I was at the Panther game. Note the response below :)
Sunday
The final day of the week and after the way the first four days had gone I just had "that feeling" that perhaps today the numbers would even out a bit. In watching the pre-race day analysis show, the CD handicapper commented that my choice in the third, Lady Scarlett looked like the EASIEST of winners, so I noted that. Missed on the first bet in the second then upped the bet on that filly in the third. Ironically as they turned for home she was challenged by a first time starter, Vow, who I'd seen being offered for sale by Myracehorse.com but I opted not to because of the high price. She came right to my choice before 'Scarlet let it out a notch and ran away to score. I cashed for almost $25 on what turned out to be my lone winner of the day.
For the week I cashed on over 41% of my picks and netted a profit of $50 for anyone who followed along!
Churchill Downs Highlights
Social Media This Week
While playing at Churchill Downs I contacted hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney twice while she hosted "America's Day at the Races" which featured the Churchill Downs live card.
I got a kick out of the fact that my favorite gal-pal anchor, Lauren Pastrana posted that she was "saving for later" a post from the the CBS Sports anchor who had said "we should all just listen to Lauren." So I replied and she noted my reply. Then later we were in touch when she noted the Gator orange and blue sunset.
I mentioned above that Saturday at the Florida Panthers Game I'd said "Hi" to Karli Barnett from the arena. When I got home, obviously the "LIVE" chat was over, but you can watch the video. I had noted about how long she'd been on the air, and sure enough, right after I posted my greeting online she'd smiled, said Hi to me and noted I had reached out from the arena. I just think that's cool.
Late Saturday night Karli was hosting the late news and I reached out to her noting that her Georgia Bulldogs had won, my Florida Panthers had won, and she'd hosted a live chat (which I was a part of) - and I said it was a great Saturday. Not just a "like" but a reply back. Again, to ME, that was cool :)
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