Week of April 13-16
I decided to play the Keeneland races on Wed, Thur, and Fri because I could. And even though there weren't many big races on the big Saturday cards, I did have some stakes events at both Keeneland and Laurel Park. And one bonus for the weekend, it was Opening Day at Woodbine - I like playing the races from Canada :)
The week started off with a one-win day and I was clever in that I upped the bet on Nepotism in the second race, a maiden claiming event going the full two turns around the track while going nine panels. I did NOT care for the fact that the colt was already a SEVEN time maiden; did NOT care for the fact that his Beyers were on the decline - oh, that can't be good; and did NOT like the fact that in six of the seven starts he'd been "right there," in the money without winning. BUT.....what I did like is that Luis Saez was riding for trainer Jonathan Thomas and they click at a 41% rate. I also thought it was significant that in spite of running well nearly every time, Nepotism had NEVER gone off as the favorite. Hmmmm, maybe, just maybe he'd been in against better all the time? Add in the drop from seven MSW to a first time maiden claimer, $30K today and that was enough. Because he was being well bet, I did up the bet. He was hard held from the start while pressing the leader all the way to the far turn. Let go he opened up and drew off under a hand ride.
On Thursday I faced quite the predicament in the opener. Through the first three days of the meet trainer Wesley Ward who ALWAYS sizzles with his 2yo maiden first timers, has been not only a disappointment, but they just have not run. So what to do here? But for me in THIS spot I thought he had a better than average chance to score because (a) he had an entry, so we got two for the price of one, and (b) he not only trained the one but also owned it. THAT was the one I liked most. Then that one scratched. Hmmmm, but almost always when a trainer has an entry and they scratch one it's a sign the remaining one is LIVE. And with the big money showing up in both the WIN pool and the early double I decided to go with the entry AND up the bet. Hurricane Debby pressed the pace to the top of the stretch then took off and ran away easily.
I scored a second time with a "PRIME TIME" play in the 4th, a six furlong starter allowance. To be fair, I had mixed feelings about the placement of Baby Yoda, but on the other hand I thought Hall of Trainer Bill Mott was cleverly using the conditions of the race to his benefit. You see, the conditions here called for runners to have been entered for $10K or less since 2021. Baby Yoda in his four starts had been in stakes races, and the most recent two were GRADED stakes. In fact, two back on December 26th he'd been second best behind the ultra-talented Flightline in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita. How on earth could he be eligible for this race? Because in his career debut he dominated $10K maiden claimers at Pimlico. He looked to be the EASIEST of winners - Free Money Day At Keeneland! Pressed the pace to the top of the stretch, floated five wide in the clear and jogged home as tons the best. Whooo hoooo.
Friday was another two-win day for me. But perhaps the "best" handicapping came in a loss. In the second race I thought I had a real solid chance with a price play with I'm Glad. It was a MSW for 3yo going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Trainer Jonathan Thomas was hitting 30% from a 40-horse sample with firsters and at a $3.15 ROI. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was aboard. Stalked the leaders into the turn, made his move and got to the front turning for home at a big 7/1 price. Nailed in the final fifty yards but a best of the rest second. Great handicapping, no money. I did cash in the fourth, a claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth to the first finish line on the main track. The outside post did no favors for Fan Club, but he looked strong off a brief four race career. He'd won his maiden and come right back in a nw1x allowance before running 3rd behind a stakes winner in a nw3L allowance at Oaklawn last time. He quickly cleared the field and sat second to the far turn. Took over and was clear heading for the wire. Then held off the late runner to score at 6/5.
Came right back in the fifth, a nine furlong entry level allowance on the turf. Ocean Road had several angles in her favor. Among them was that trainer Brendon Walsh, when he took over her training when she arrived from Europe immediately sent her to the Grade 1 BC Filly & Mare Turf. She had run well enough. Hot riding Tyler G was up and she'd paired figures. She trailed the field all the way into the far turn before beginning to pick off runners. Still multiple lengths back at the top of the lane while five wide, but found another gear, surged and was up in the nick of time!
Saturday the day did NOT start off the way I thought it would. With all the big stakes races last weekend all over the country there were not going to be many "big races" this weekend and most all the best horses had run over the last two weekends. Still, it was Opening Day at Woodbine and Laurel had multiple listed events to go with the standard fare at Keeneland which included two stakes events. In the Woodbine opener Wesley Ward's Lime was going to be a prohibitive favorite and SHOULD win going the very abbreviated 4 1/2 furlongs as the clear speed of the race while plunging in class. Went off at 1/9 and was caught late to be 2nd. WOW. Then at Laurel Sugar Gray Leonard was 2/5 in a five and a half furlong MSW and he too was caught in deep stretch to finish second. Topped off the skid when the second at Keeneland saw my pick, the 8/5 favorite run 2nd. NOT the way to start the day. So the fact that I went 8-for-16 for the rest of the day was pretty cool....and that I was 0-for-5 at Woodbine on the day and still won money was remarkable. Turf racing was making it's return to the Maryland track and the third was a starter-optional claiming event turf sprint. The conditions were for runners who'd run for $25K or less and nine of the ten had LOST at the $25K level or cheaper. Crabs N Beer had only raced for a tag three times and had won decisively for this same $25K tag. The other two times he raced for a bigger $40K price and was a good second in both efforts. The problem was, he'd NEVER been on the turf. Good enough on figures and his Tomlinsons said he'd handle the grass. He was towards the back approaching the far turn, ran by the back markers, split horses at the top of the lane and sprinted by the leaders late to score at a generous $9.60 price.
Ran 6th at 6/5 with another added money event to make my start 1-for-5 with FOUR added money losses and the lone win with a minimum bet. YOWZA. The fourth at Keeneland was a maiden special event going six furlongs for three-year-olds. Under Oath was a Todd Pletcher runner and if able to run back to his debut 85 he'd win for fun. He too was well back heading into the turn, then circled rivals and ran away through the lane.
Ran second again at Woodbine before they were in the gate for the fifth at Lexington for an entry level mile and a sixteenth turf event for sophomores. Lightly raced 3yo fillies going two turns on the turf could be hard to figure. But based on what we COULD see on paper it looked like Shug McGaughey's Limited Liability was the class of the field. He'd won his Saratoga debut around two turns at this distance and you KNOW that (a) only the most highly regarded juveniles debut at the Spa and (b) to win at first asking, as a 2yo, going a route of ground on the turf is NOT easy. Secondly, he'd exited that win to run back-to-back thirds in graded company before going to the bench. Now he began his 3yo season with multiple works which indicated to me he was ready to roll. Jockey Jose Ortiz had him in hand while last through the far turn, got into the clear and it was like he "floored it" in a sports car as Limited Liability ran by the field like they were tied to a post. While the margin was about a length, the analysts both commented that it could easily be described as a "measured length" as he'd been MUCH the best. And get this....he went off at a big 4/1 price allowing me to cash for $50! Suddenly, after playing the races for nearly three hours and getting off to an 0-for-3 and then 1-for-5 start, I'd now upped the day's tally to 3-for-8 and was more than $25 ahead!
Missed AGAIN at Woodbine - wow - when second before it was time for the co-best bet of the day. The first stakes on the Laurel card was the Weber City Miss for three-year-old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth. I'd been all over Luna Belle in her last four starts as she'd dominated the 3yo filly stakes ranks. And I had to agree with one analyst who said she HAD to be the best 3yo filly in the country to NOT be going to the Kentucky Oaks. She'd won three sprints and a one-turn mile race. Two of the sprints had come going seven furlongs, and with the way she'd drawn off impressively in all of them made you believe she could get two turns. But the old adage is you never bet a horse, especially at a short price when trying something they've never done before. It's also true that "the rule" in handicapping is that "there are no rules." I made her the prime time play and she was being pounded at 1/9 early in the wagering. As they approached the gate she'd drifted up to 1/5 but once they were away and she was near the back through the clubhouse turn she was back to 1/9. Swept up five wide on the turn and just jogged by the field as they were being implored by their riders to keep up while Luna Belle's rider sat motionless. Drew off to win by a pole as easily best. WOW, impressive.
Missed at Keeneland and Woodbine, again, before it was time for the Heavenly Cause Stakes at Laurel. It was a one-turn mile and as I noted in my analysis, I'd scanned the pp's and didn't really care for anyone in particular, but when I read Dan Illman's analysis from the DRF he pointed out that Pennybaker - who was making her first start in North America after shipping from her native France where she'd won four in a row once she was taken OFF the turf to run on the all-weather. She pressed the pace while in the clear three-wide through the turn. Accelerated in the stretch to draw off in a "WOW" performance.
The ninth at Laurel was the Frederico Tesio for 3yo colts and it traditionally serves as the local prep to the Preakness where one or two locals challenge the big sophomores who ran in the Derby. Looking at the past performances I was struck by two thoughts, (1) NONE of these horses have a real shot to win the Preakness, and (2) this race was WIDE open. Finally I settled on Joe who had been the even money favorite last time out against several of these seeking his fourth straight win and was second best. Maybe he redeems himself today. Swept to the front turning for home and looked like a clear winner until his stablemate at double digit odds collared him at the 1/8th pole and they dueled to the wire, PHOTO FINISH!
Whew, that was close. The feature race at Keeneland was the Grade 1 First Lady going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I was CERTAIN that Chad Brown would be in the winner's circle for the SIXTH time after this event, but the problem was WHICH of the two fillies would be the winner? While both were quality and deserving winners, I went with Regal Glory. She'd been ultra-impressive winning the Gr 3 Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf at Gulfstream (when I was there AND bet her), and she had recency on her side. I also had noted that earlier in the week Brown had been quoted that they were going to retire her, but owner Peter Brant wanted to run her as a 4yo AND that they thought she would have a "championship season." Sounds like they thought she was REALLY good. She stalked the leader to the far turn and as Jose Ortiz took the lead heading for home he looked back several times to see where the other Brown filly was. Regal Glory had gotten the jump and was too far gone for her rival who was a best of the rest second.
I did NOT handicap the Oaklawn card but I knew that 2021 Eclipse Award winning sprint champion Jackie's Warrior was making his return today to the races in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Handicap. He was a deserving 1/9 and later 1/5 favorite in a short field of six. Not only was he the class of the field but no one, and I mean NO ONE would be able to run with him early. Long gone as the lone speed. For some reason the crowd began to hammer the local horse who was a come from the clouds closer. No way Jose I thought. Jackie's Warrior went wire to wire easily for my eighth winner on the day and somehow the crowd let him go off at 1-2 odds so I gladly collected the "free" $10 to add to my profits on the day!
Social Media This Week.....
One of my favorite shows to watch is "Expedition Unknown" with Josh Gates who's like a real life Indiana Jones. Well, a couple years ago he developed a spin-off show called "Expedition X" where two of his colleagues explore unusual phenomenon, like the old TV show, "The X Files." And in this case the female, Jessica Chobot, is the "believer" while the guy is the one who always says there must be another explanation. So Expedition X hasn't been on for a while and Jessica posted something on Twitter. I reached out to her about the show and she responded.
Also, on Monday, my girl Karli Barnett was on the anchor desk so we exchanged greetings.
Our girl Acacia Courtney-Clement posted about her good first week back in NY and I replied which got a response back.
Then on Thursday my best gal-pal news girl Lauren Pastrana was on air in a cute green dress. I reached out to her and she replied while on the air.
And finally, on Saturday evening after the races, hottie news gal Karli Barnett hosted another live chat. The theme seemed to be about Easter and chocolate bunnies so we "chatted" live :)
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