Summer/Fall Racing: Derby Week 2022

May 3 - May 7

What a great week it turned out to be! As the week began I was in Ohio and had flights booked home on both Monday May 2 and Tuesday May 3 because I wasn't sure when the Florida Panthers NHL Playoffs were going to start. When it was announced early Saturday that it would be on Tuesday I cancelled the flight for Monday and headed back to Fort Lauderdale Tuesday afternoon. I arrived in town at about 3:30 pm which relates to the racing for the week because Churchill Downs had an extended "Derby Week" of racing that kicked off with races carded on Tuesday. I looked at the entries for Tue-Wed-Thur on Monday while in Ohio and because I was standing at a win total of 9,995 I wasn't going to play more than a couple of races. I didn't see anything that interested me with the exception of the featured race on Tuesday, the Issac Murphy Marathon going a mile and a half on the dirt. For nearly a year now Lone Rock has dominated the marathon distances on the dirt and sure enough he was the short-priced morning line choice. I made the bet before I left for the airport and they left the gate as we were flying over the Ohio border by my estimate. As soon as we touched down I opened the replays on my phone and watched as he went wire to wire, drawing off through the lane!

Thursday afternoon my oldest son Jeff and his family arrived and the four boys headed out to the arena for Game Two of the Stanley Cup playoffs. We'd lost Tuesday and needed to have a solid performance. Got it with a decisive 5-1 victory and had some great photo memories as well.

Kentucky Oaks Day

Friday was the BIG Kentucky Oaks Day and I had eleven selections on the card. I passed on the opener and had the 3/5 favorite in the second. Looked like a winner until mid-stretch before finishing second. But if you recall, all week you get your money back for running second or third....so I "WON!" Whoooo hooooo!

Passed on the third and in the fourth it was a second level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. There were "reasons" to go against Juju's Map who was trained by Brad Cox but not for me. She'd not been seen since early November and this would be the 3yo filly's first try against older. But of the combined 121 Beyers earned by the rest of the field only ONE would beat one of her last two and that was earned by a rival who'd never before, or since, run that well. Meanwhile Juju's Map had run those last two figures AT this distance in her most recent starts. The first was a decisive win in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland and the second was a best-of-the-rest 2nd in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies behind champion Echo Zulu. Oh. Right to the front and LONG gone under cruise control as MUCH the best!

The fifth was the Grade 3 Modesty and before even looking at the field I was in a bad mood! Why's that you say? Well, you see, Churchill Downs, Inc. owned Calder Race Course - my "hometown track," and they closed it because it was more profitable to only operate the casino. They also owned Arlington Race Course - my all-time most favorite race track. And every spring Arlington would host a series of turf races that would serve as preps for their signature Arlington Million Day turf events. The prep for the Gr 1 Beverly D was the Grade 3 Modesty. Wait - but this is at Churchill right? YES - that's the problem! Last summer Churchill Downs, Inc. sold Arlington for it's real estate value and "absorbed" some of the traditional stakes races for their own track. Just not right. But, back to handicapping the race. It was difficult to look past Chad Brown's Bleecker Street who was unbeaten and had ripped off back-to-back graded wins at Tampa. IF you wanted to take a shot, that would be the angle.....that she'd not seen top notch rivals in Oldsmar this past winter. Turning for home she was well back and rallying wide, which was impressive because they'd crawled the opening segments through a :50 and 1:14 pace. Her stablemate, Fluffy Socks had rallied to the front and began to drift out. 'Street's rider dove down between rivals, surged and was UP IN TIME! HORRAY!

The sixth was the Grade 1 La Troienne and was my BEST Bet of the Day with Brad Cox's Shedaresthedevil. She was a multiple graded stakes winner that was 7-for-11 at the trip, but more importantly was a perfect 5-for-5 at Churchill Downs which is often a tricky surface for horses. AND she looked to be the lone speed. Right to the front, opened up turning for home but was caught in the shadow of the wire. STILL - because of the promotion I got $20 back.

The seventh was the Grade 2 Alysheba for older handicap horses. During the winter Bill Mott's Olympiad had won an allowance at Gulfstream then shipped to the Fair Grounds for a graded event. At the time I thought he was a rising star and he proved me right by winning. Came back on the La Derby Day card and won again in the Grade 2 New Orleans in decisive fashion. I thought he looked very strong in here. He pressed the pace to the far turn, took over but was headed turning for home. At the furlong marker you could see that the horse was not about to let this happen. He battled back and not only got back in front but drew off impressively through the final yards. A quality score!

In the Grade 3 Edgewood - a 3yo turf event - which was next, I thought it was a fairly wide-open affair. But I went with Chad Brown's Dolce Zel. Made a good late run but too little too late. Still, again, hit the board in third so I got my money back AGAIN!

Next up was the Grade 2 Eight Belles for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs. Brad Cox's Matayera showed a pattern that's very typical of three-year-olds. In her first several races she'd won a single race and had earned Beyers in the upper 70's to low 80's. But two back in a Fair Grounds nw2L allowance she'd exploded with a big win earning a career top 91 Beyer figure. Recognizing that she'd suddenly found herself Cox entered her in Keeneland's Grade 2 Beaumont at this same 7f. She ran off as TONS the best with another new lifetime top figure of 95. If she was legitimately as good as these last two figures - which made her a "Double Advantage Horse" because they were BOTH better than the combined thirty-eight figures earned by the rest of the field - she would win for fun. She dropped over to the rail from the eight slot down the backstretch and sat mid-pack. Moved into the clear turning for home and drew off handily to score, my fourth winner on the day!

Ran a disappointing fifth in the Kentucky Oaks and was third in the finale, but again got my money back in this MSW sprint. So for the day I'd bet ten races and cashed in EIGHT of them! We're off to a great start to the weekend!

Kentucky Derby Day

By mid-morning our youngest son Brad and our grandson Oliver had arrived along with our daughter Julie. What a great way to spend the weekend - the Kentucky Derby, my three "kids" and all three of my grandsons! And to make the day even better, BOTH of my sons were playing the races from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" with me!

I kicked off the day by running a good second at a nice price of 7/2 and got my money back. I like this promotion :)

I passed the 2nd, and was a non-threatening 7th at 5/2 in the third before passing on the fourth. I'd be less than honest that I wasn't a little apprehensive at this point for two reasons......I'd had a good Oaks Day and I was hoping NOT to disappoint today, and more importantly the first win on the card would be the milestone 10,000th of my handicapping career. In the fifth, the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile and like nearly every other graded stakes on the turf in North America, all you have to do is find the Chad Brown runner....AND like nearly every other graded stakes on the turf in North America there is more than one. Same here. But Speak of the Devil got a big endorsement from me. First, as a Euro import she immediately classes up with these Gr 2 rivals. Second she had SIX races that earned a TimeForm figure that would translate into a triple digit Beyer and there were NONE of those in the rest of the field. Next, she showed not one but three photo finish losses in Euro Group 1 races, far more competitive that this Grade 2. Add in that at all other distances Speak of the Devil was 1-for-5, but at the mile trip 4-for-9. Oh. Finally, Chad Brown was a big 39% with Euro imports making their first start in North America at a wickedly good $2.37 ROI for every $2 wagered. Was an added bonus that she was owned by one of Brown's long-time Clients Peter Brandt who OFTEN brought Euro imports to the States and won graded events. Had to be worried when she was last on the far turn, but as announcer Larry Colmus called it, she BLITZED right by the field to quickly assume command and drew off for my first win of the day!

And yes, that was the BIG ONE - number 10,000! Congrats to ME!

I ran fourth at 5/1 in the sixth, the inaugural Knicks Go Stakes. Race 7 was the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile for three-year-olds and here was my BEST Bet of the Day. Which brings up an interesting point I often try to share with people who know me and reach out on Kentucky Derby Day. The card for Derby Day HAS to be viewed like any other day at the track. Yes it's a big day with a huge crowd and lots of stakes races. But just because it's a big event and especially just because it's the Derby does NOT mean that's the "best" bet on the day. Here Jack Christopher, a lightly raced colt trained by Chad Brown was a stand out. He'd been one of the star juveniles last year and had finished the year winning the Grade 1 Champagne at this same one-turn mile trip. His debut maiden win would beat all combined 73 figures earned by today's rivals, and then the even better Champagne figure was tons better. As long as he wasn't a 2yo one-hit wonder he looked TONS best. Pressed the pace to the far turn, glided up while still in hand and ran off a much, MUCH the best!

One of the most exciting things that happened on Derby Weekend 2021 came with my "UPSET Special" choice in the Grade 2 Eight Belles. That day I'd picked Obligatory to run them all down in that seven furlong event, and she'd done so at a huge 16/1 price - chased for over $170! I had her again when she won the Grade 3 Chiluki here under the Twin Spires, and a third time when she won at Gulfstream towards the end of the meet. As I looked over the field for today's 8th, the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff there looked to be a lot of speed which would set her up for her big closing kick again. I wasn't nearly as confident as with Jack Christopher, but I was willing to go in at a double investment, especially at the morning line number of 7/1. She left the gate at 7/2 and things were looking grim when they hit the far turn and Larry Colmus called out that she was trailing the field by some fourteen lengths. Instantaneously I had the thought that she was too far back, but immediately thought....I've seen her do this before! She began to move and was making up ground quickly. Jose Ortiz had her in the clear turning for home some six or seven wide and the pace had been hot. But could she get there. Suddenly inside the final furlong she seemed to find yet another gear and accelerated past to win going away at a generous $9.60 payout, allowing me to cash for nearly $50!

Oh I'm having a good day! The Grade 2 American Turf for 3yo was next. Sy Dog had won at Keeneland at a fair price last time out to remain unbeaten and he was the tepid 9/5 favorite today. Came on through the lane, but too late - third. Again, cashed out the refund :)

The tenth was the Grade 1 Churchill Downs going seven furlongs and IF Jackie's Warrior ran to his best races he would wire this field for fun. The only thing that kept me from making HIM the BEST Bet of the Day was his defeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall when he stopped unexpectantly and was beaten by Aloha West who was in today's field. Still, Jackie's Warrior looked not only like the lone speed but NO ONE could run the opening quarter as fast as he could. So I figured he would not only be loose on the lead but in a slower pace than he needed, giving him plenty for the stretch run. Oh I was SO RIGHT! Right to the front in a pokey :23 and change. "He's long gone" I told the boys and he drew off in an awesome display of speed and class. Jeff made us Mint Juleps and I broke out the souvenir Derby glasses as we toasted our success!

Led into the stretch at 71 in my "UPSET Special" on the turf before fading the fifth and then the Derby winner was at 80/1 in an complete shocker - made for great stories. Passed the thirteenth but in the finale, another maiden event Brad and I had the winner to cap off a five win afternoon!

For the weekend I had won at over 40% and cleared almost $100 profit. Brad also won, netting a profit of just over $60 and Jeff finished in the black as well. Just a GREAT weekend!

Derby Week Highlights