Breeders' Cup Preview Weekend

 September 28 - October 1

I had little to do during the week with Kim being gone, so I decided to play the races all week long.  The good news is that I was kept entertained by something I really enjoy doing.  The better news is I ended the week by winning seven of my last thirteen bets, which included three big ones.  The bad news was, well a pictures is worth a thousand words.....

Yes, TWENTY-THREE times I was second best.  Ouch.  Hard to make money like that.  But over the long run, the past two weekends I'd gone 17-for-35, nearly 50% so I can't complain.  Wednesday only Churchill was on the docket and I had the 3/2 favorite in the opener.....second behind a first time starter who was 10/1 in the program bet down to 8/5.  In retrospect, that was the preview for the week!  Passed on the second and then drew off with Princely in the third at 4/5.  Came right back in the fourth with an oh-so-generous price of $9.60 on Atras who went wire to wire in a two-lifetime claiming event.  It's funny how MANY times you can find a runner like this in a spot like this, at a price.  Racing for a first time tag for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux.  And I cashed for nearly $50 thanks to my double investment.  WOW.  Closed the first day with a 2nd at 2/1, 2nd at 7/5, and finally a 2nd at 2/1.  Should have known right there!

Thursday and Friday were L-O-N-G days at the track.  EIGHT times I finished second over the two day span of playing Belmont (at the Big A) and Churchill Downs.  And both days I didn't win until very late in the day.  On Thursday Slim Man drove to the lead in the finale going 7f in a maiden claimer to edge clear at a nice $6.66 price - cashed for over $30; and on Friday around 4:30 Decision Maker edged clear late to score at an even bigger $7.36 price so I collected over $35.  Neither payoff made up for the losses, but at least it kept me in the ball game.

I spent a lot of time debating with myself about what to do on Saturday.  Initially, I told a lot of people that I was excited to be actually GOING to Gulfstream for the first time in seven months to be on track and enjoy racing.  One reason I next to never go between the end of the Championship Season in the spring and the beginning of the next one in December is because it is SO difficult to find a runner that provides an edge for betting.  Not much point to going out there to bet one or two races, and spend most of the day watching TV's without sound hanging from the ceiling when I could watch on a big 55" flat screen from the comfort of my "Sunrise Simulcast Center" listening to the race call.  But today was the final race of the Florida Sire Series with both the My Dear Girl and In Reality Stakes carrying a $400K purse.  AND in both races there was an unbeaten 2yo going for a sweep of the series.  That is unusual, but not all that unusual for a juvenile to sweep the series.  But since in inception of this series of races back at Calder in 1982 NEVER had BOTH a filly and colt swept the series in the SAME YEAR.  But as it got closer to Saturday I began to wonder if I REALLY wanted to drive all the way down there and spend the day largely on my feet.  When I heard that Hurricane Ian had become a major rainmaker as it died down and was going to dump rain all over Baltimore and New York, where I had several selections I also wondered would I have a lot of scratches and end up wishing I could watch college football in between races.  But in the end I thought it would be a good way to get some steps in (I ended up with over 8,000 steps and walked about 3 1/2 miles); I would NOT be munching on food all day; there really were not any big games I wanted to watch; there were not a lot of scratches; and finally, I reasoned - I DO like to be there and what else would I be doing....sitting at home alone, AGAIN as I had been for ten days?  And so I went.  Although it wasn't an OMG winning day, it was great to be at the track, talk with all my teller "friends" and like I said in the opening, I finished the day with several winners which made me feel good about being there.

I started the day with nine, count them, NINE straight losses.  I had been there for over two hours before I finally cashed a ticket.  And ironically, the winner was in a 2yo MSW at Churchill where I only had the minimum bet.  But as I noted in the highlight video clip, just to FINALLY cash a ticket was good enough at that point.  Tapit's Conquest had closed to be 2nd in his debut and today's stretch from 7f to a two-turn mile and a sixteenth looked to right in the son of champion Curlin's wheelhouse.  Trained by Brad Cox he made a big move on the turn and opened up.  Until he got to the 16th pole I kept looking for who was going to run me down because I'd already had several of those, but he was clear under the wire.  Thought maybe I was on my way, but lost the next three - two of which saw me finish second. In the very next race in Louisville I liked O Besos in a third level allowance.  He was a near-perfect fit for the conditions.  He was lightly raced with four races against MSW and allowance foes.  ALL the rest were graded stakes.  The MSW & allowance events - ALL WINS.  And to add to the appeal, of the 115 combined figures run by the rest of the field, his LAST SIX beat 113 of them; and his last two beat them all.  He sat midpack through the turn, swept up five wide and wore down the leader in the shadow of the wire with my triple investment on board.

Again, "here we go" I thought, only to watch the next five picks lose - three of them second.  WOW.  The next win made me feel proud of myself.  One thing I've learned about my handicapping and playing the races....always, and I mean ALWAYS it evens out for me to show 35% to 40% winners.  And so it's "easier" to endure multiple losses on any given day because I KNOW that I'm going to win later.  And what made me proud in this instance was I not only did not back down from the betting because I was not cashing, but I actually upped the wager in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes, a "Win And You're In" Breeders' Cup event.  I can hear someone say, "Wow, how hard is it to up the bet on a 1/9 shot?"  But that's the thing....it would have been oh-so-easy to back off to "avoid losing" knowing that if I did win, I wouldn't do much more than get my money back.  But FOR ME at the races, it's all about the playing - and a lot of the excitement is that I'll invest more heavily when I'm more confident.  And to have those pay off is rewarding.  So it was not hard to like Life Is Good who was not only clearly and I mean CLEARLY the best in this short field, but he was also the lone speed.  Still, as his trainer Todd Pletcher replied when asked on Friday if the race was basically just a "walkover," he said "We'll be sweating bullets until he crosses the finish line first!"  Anything can happen in racing.  But he lived up to the hype and walked with it - and now it's on to the Breeders' Cup Classic and the much anticipated showdown with Flightline.  For my big $50 bet I cashed for $52.50 - but felt very good about myself!  I went back and looked, and since the summer season began in late June I've had sixty races where I went "prime time" on the bet or higher ($20 and up).  I've cashed on 65% of them.  And even better, when I'm very confident and bet more than $20 I've cashed on 13-of-16 bets....that's over 80% my friends!

Less than ten minutes after Life Is Good crossed the wire, I turned around in the Gulfstream breezeway to one of the other big screen TV's and watched Battle Bling draw off in Laurel's Twixt Stakes.  Nearly $30 on that one.

Really thought Be Your Best would remain unbeaten in her young two-year-old campaign in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo but she didn't seem to have the same kick over the yielding ground and rand third.  In the featured Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs I didn't have a lot of confidence in Speaker's Corner and thought he was over the top, but on paper he looked obvious.  Should have trusted my gut - rant a dismal 7th at 7/5.  I had two more races to watch live before I was ready to head for home.  At Santa Anita trainer Bob Baffert had sent out the very talented filly, Fun To Dream.  She'd blitzed her MSW rivals on debut and then buried a state-bred stakes group.  Now off a freshening she was going two turns for the first time, and in an open race - but an entry level allowance.  I loved her chances.  Then I read that the DRF's Brad Free made her his BEST Bet and made the comment, ".....she towers over her rivals...."  She drafted behind the leaders, swung into the clear heading for home and ran off without taking a deep breath.  Stakes rivals are next for this filly.

Finally, it was time for the Gulfstream feature, the $400K In Reality Stakes.  In the filly version Lynx had disappointed, as my choice, and ran second (no surprise).  So I was wondering about what would happen here.  But I thought Awesome Strong looked the more likely winner of the two juvenile favorites and so I made him the Best Bet at Gulfstream and went "prime time" on him.  He sat comfortably in the clear about mid-pack until they approached the far turn.  Now we'd find out if he could get two turns.  Swept up and ran by everyone to take command.  Opened up what appeared to be a commanding lead turning for home with the run to the first finish line.  But inside the final 16th you could tell he had nothing left.  Oh my, hang on Webby I thought, and he did as a clear winner, but he won't be a long-term threat going two turns in my opinion.  Or maybe he's still young and developing.  Regardless, I'd won another big race with another big bet and headed for home a happy camper with half a dozen late races to watch.

I won two of them and ran second in two others, of course.  In the Grade 2 City of Hope going a mile on the turf I thought at first glance that the field was pretty evenly matched.  Then I looked at the likely pace scenario - uh oh, Beyond Brilliant was the one and only front runner.  Looked LONG GONE and she burst to the front immediately and never was threatened as my third big-time bet winner.  And finally in the last bet of the day we were racing down the unique hillside course at Santa Anita - I love those races - in the Unzip Me Stakes.  Connie Swingle got my bet.  I wasn't completely convinced, but it was hard to ignore these three facts:  (1) she was a perfect 3-for-3 on turf; (2) last time out the 3yo filly beat older, multiple stakes winner Leggs Galore; and (3) most importantly she was 2-for-2 down the unique course on the hill.  Right out of the gate she latched onto the hip of the front runner.  As they crossed over the main track and turned for home she burst to the front and scored by daylight for my seventh winner on the day!

Next Wednesday we head off to Hawaii.  It's Opening Week at the strong Keeneland Fall Meet.  No guarantees, but I'd guess I'll find time to play a few of the big stakes on "Fall Stars Weekend."  To follow our Hawaii adventure, go HERE.

BC Preview Weekend Highlights

Social Media

Former student Christy posted a couple more pics from her visit to Scotland to be at gal-pal, partner-in-crime Kimmy's wedding.  And when I commented, we had a brief online conversation where she agreed that we should get together.

Jessica Jordan was my most favorite waitress at Ford's Garage in Cape Coral when we lived there for six months to help our son Jeff with his head coaching gig.  I grew particularly close to Jessica because there were a few times when Kim did not make the trip back to Cape Coral until later in the week and I was left to myself.  Kim would encourage me to go to Ford's and nearly always (those were typically on a Monday) the place was not very crowded and Jessica would spend a lot of time with me just chatting.  Got to know her so well, and saw many a pic of her little girl Emma.  So that we've kept in touch means a lot to me.  When she posted pics of her now two little ones, she reacted to my comments.

Acacia Courtney now works full time in New York and we'll miss her during the winter at Gulfstream.  But nearly every time I reach out to tell her I am watching and playing I get some recognition back, as I did this week.

Typically at least once - often on the weekend I exchanged social media comments with CBS-4 Weekend Anchor Karli Barnett (who ALWAYS calls be out by name).  But heading into this weekend, I'd not heard from her in almost two weeks.  Then on Friday she posted pics from a wedding and I thought OH, that's where she was.....

When the hurricane swept through southwest Florida I was concerned about several of the people I keep in contact with there, one of which was Jessica.  And on Saturday she let me know she was ok.  But the most meaningful part of her reply - and that she took the time to write to me and not just give me an emoji - was here saying "I miss seeing you too."  That's my girl!

If you remember from last fall, Karli is a Georgia alumni and her Bulldogs have been kings of college football.  I've learned she's an avid follower and watches the games.  So on Saturday evening when they barely escaped with a win I messaged her that it was good to see her back on the air.  Also, she'd commented during the chat earlier that she'd been ill - which explains why she had been "missing in action" for so long - and I commented on that.  More on the chat below...... You'll note that I sent her the message just after she'd gone on the air, and WHILE ON THE AIR, she replied.

In response to Karli letting her fans know her parents were ok we exchanged another set of comments.

My good friend Mishele, who's still working, was at a friend's retirement party.  I inquired when she would join us in not working and then suggested we go to the track to make her retirement income LOL.

One of my most favorite "kids" from the fall I spent at Oasis High was Madi who was our lead manager and chief drone pilot.  We've stayed in touch and I was concerned about her and her family.  Finally after five days she replied to me.  The good news, they were all ok....the bad news, their home was destroyed.  So sad, like so many others :(

By far the best....THE BEST.... THE VERY BEST part of the weekend - especially from a social media point of view was the Saturday evening Facebook chat that Karli Barnett hosted.  Typically I try to get on and usually I say hi and there isn't much to comment on.  But tonight, she and I engaged in "conversation" on many topics.  And her reaction to our trip to Hawaii (and my trips in general) and to the frozen cappuccinos were memorable!  So I clipped the videos together into this "highlight reel" of our conversation!