Preakness Weekend

 May 19 - 21

What an amazing weekend of sports.  Not one but two overtime wins by our Panthers to take a commanding 2-0 series lead in the Eastern Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and then back to back successful days of playing the races from Pimlico on Preakness weekend.  Here's how it all played out.  It all started with the first game of the Eastern Confernce Playoffs  - which the Panthers had not been to since 1996 - and we were in Carolina for an 8 pm puck drop.  The regulation time ended in a 2-2 tie and we headed to sudden death overtime.  Not one, not two, not three, but in the fourth overtime with about 30 seconds left we moved the puck up the boards and I was thinking, "I can't believe we are going to play a fifth overtime."  Then an innocent pass to our star player, a simple wrist shot and BOOM with 12.7 seconds left in the period it was over, we'd won.  The clock read 1:58 am.  Oh my.  The next day was Black Eyed Susan Day.

I'd been lucky enough to be at Pimlico (photo/banner above) for this big weekend of racing in 2015, the year of American Pharoah's amazing Triple Crown win.  But today I'd play from the comfort of the Sunrise Simulcast Center.  In the opener my pick was the 4/5 choice - second.  Passed the second race and then ran third at 3/1 in the third.  The fourth was the first of the stakes events, the DuPont Distaff.  My top choice was Brad Cox's Interstatedaydeream.  As I noted in my analysis, handicapping involves trying to weigh so many different factors, making it quite the esoteric kind of thing.  There's an "art" to it and often it's the "feel" you get when weighing all these angles.  That was the way this one played for me.  First, the ONLY time 'Daydream had been this distance was when she was third off the layoff, like today, and had run here, like today, when she won last year's Black Eyed Susan.  Uh oh.  No question she was exiting a very disappointing loss as the favorite in Keeneland's Gr 3 Doubledogdare.  But here's where I "felt" it.  Before that race she'd had "ok" works.  But the two works leading up to today's race was a :59.4 third best of twenty-three and an even better :59.3 second best of twenty-four.  One of the first handicapping books I'd read was by noted author William L. Scott "How Will Your Horse Run Today" and in it he devoted quite a bit of time to the five furlong, one-minute work.  Any work at a minute or under for five minutes almost always signals a big effort.  And this time, again, it did.  Right to the front leading all the way to the stretch.  Collared, she reached down and dueled the length of the lane before edging clear again in the shadow of the wire!

So through the first two races I had to "Bet Back / cashed" tickets and a winning ticket, whooo hooo.  I then ran 4th at 9/5 before the sixth, an allowance race.  The quite attractive trainer Brittany Russell is always one of the leading conditioners on the Mid-Atlantic circuit, but since the Preakness Meet had opened she was scoring at a better than 50% clip (and by weekend's end it was well over 60%!).  She sent out Royal Whisper in this six furlong dash.  She'd been 2nd off the layoff, finishing full of run last time out and was lightly raced with a rider winning at better than 50% for Ms. Britt.  Sat back until the field approached the far turn, glided up to a clear lead into the lane and held off the late challengers for my second with my added money wager on board.

Missed in the sevent before another entry level allowance, this one restricted to 3yo, came up in the 8th race.  No matter what your approach to handicapping you have to start with who's the favorite and are they a likely winner or not.  Then you weigh in the factors that might make you bet them or not.  Sometimes it's as simple as the best and fastest horse is the favorite and they are the most likely winner.  Fort Warren was just such a runner.  First two starts had been for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and now he ran for the aforementioned Ms. Britt.  Adding Lasix today, meant - according to DRF analyst Dan Illman, who uses the Formulator tool to find such things, Russell was 6-for-her-last-14 (43%) with a positive ROI with that kind of move.  He tracked the leader in third on the rail through the turn, and I began to worry when the rider was really pushing him to keep up turning for home.  But at the furlong marker he swung into the clear and suddenly found a new gear to burst by and score with my triple investment on board for my third winner of the day.

Missed on the next two before it was time for the Grade 3 Pimlico Special.  I've seen Ken McPeek's Rattle N Roll run before and honestly I've always thought he was overrated.  But - and this is the cool thing about handicapping.....you have to remember that on THIS DAY it is the one and only time that THIS combination of horses in THIS state of condition will meet - today he was the pick.  Of the combined 116 races run by the rest of the field, one and only one Beyer figure would be competitive with his last two, and three of his last four.  Seemed "obvious" to me.  Near the back approaching the far turn he swept up four wide, collared the leader, but that one would not go away.  Stretch duel with heads up and down and they hit the line nearly simultaneously.  I thought MAYBE I'd won.  But it was oh so close.  The photo came up - I'm the winner by the slimmest of margins (see inset photo finish pic below).

Missed on the Best Bet of the Day in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan before the finale, a five furlong turf sprint.  S.Muffin had moved into Ms. Brit's barn after her last start and today she dropped from MSW into this maiden claiming event.  Her last THREE Beyers beat all but one of the combined figures on the page.  As I noted, it would be well worth waiting for prices to go official to cash your ticket in the finale with this probable short priced favorite.  Burst out of the gate and was quickly daylight clear.  Under wraps from the get go she widened her margin through the lane without ever being asked with yet another triple investment on board for me.

Ended the big day of racing Friday with five wins from twelve selections and got money back on another three.  "Cashed" on eight of twelve, you can't ask for much better my friends.

Saturday was the "big day" of the weekend.  And much like last weekend I debated about how many tracks to play.  For more than a day I was leaning to simply playing Monmouth and Pimlico.  But Friday morning I got up and decided I'd go through the cards at Gulfstream, Churchill, and Woodbine and try to be very picky about finding races with very likely winners to add to the selection sheet.  By the time the day started I had twenty-eight races to invest in.  But the weather was bad causing races to be taken off the turf at Churchill and Monmouth, and with the typical scratches I was down to just twenty-two as the racing began over coffee in mid-morning at Pimlico.  First post was at 10:30 am and in the opener I liked Rock The Boat in this entry level allowance turf sprint.  He was coming off a break but last October he'd come off a break and run super in a local stakes, finishing second.  Two bullet works sealed the deal.  Right to the front and never looked back.

I was watching the coverage on the TVG network on the big screen in the "clubhouse" of the Sunrise Simulcast Center because I had multiple tracks in play.  And any racing prior to noon to 1 pm is typically European racing.  I was just about to mute the sound as they switched back to the Euro races when I caught the announcer saying that coming up was two-time Breeders' Cup champion Modern Games in a Group 1 race.  Wait, what?  I know that guy and I've cashed on him in both his Breeders' Cup races.  Sure enough, Modern Games was running at Newbury Race Course in the UK in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes going a mile - 'Games' best distance.  He was going for his first European Group 1 and I thought he looked best so I added him to the list.  Down the straight they were fanned nearly eight across the wide grass course as he slipped up the inner rail and drew off to win, giving me my first stakes winner on the day!

The second at Pimlico was a two-turn, second level allowance and my pick was Be Better who was being sent out by....you guessed it, Brittany Russell.  This colt had once showed promised while under the care of Todd Pletcher but seemingly had had the "wheels come off" and now was under the care of Ms. Britt.  He was third time Britt with two sharp tries at a one-turn mile, he looked to improve with the stretch out around two.  Stalked in fourth while between runners to the turn.  Got into the clear and set sail for the wire with an added money investment on board.

Ran third with my next pick, but because of the "Bet Back" promotion I got my money back within the hour.  Then it was time for the first stakes event of the Saturday afternoon and it featured my BEST Bet of the Day in Bob Baffert's Arabian Lion.  This colt had shown all kind of promise but had yet to score after an impressive maiden debut on Breeders' Cup Saturday.  Still 33 of the 34 Beyers on the page would not beat four of his five Beyers; and better yet, he looked to be the LONE SPEED under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.  Right to the front and clear immediately.  The second choice in the betting came two him as they turned for home.  Held a narrow advantage to the furlong marker then gradually drew off impressively.

Right back in the opener at Monmouth where it was raining and the track was sloppy.  Brasstown was sent off as the 6/5 favorite but dueled the length of the stretch with first one in front then the other.  Hit the wire nearly simultaneously and it was really difficult to tell.....but I WON.

Went on a bit of a skid when Bob Baffert's 3/5 favorite Havenameltdown in the Gr 3 Chick Lang broke down on the turn and missed at both Woodbine and Monmouth before they were in the gate for the Grade 3 Gallorette going a mile and a sixteenth over the Pimlico turf.  Five of the seven entered in this race were from the Chad Brown & Graham Motion barn but Whitebeam looked heads and shoulders better to me.  Last time out, off the layoff she'd broken a tad slowly but tried to rally and catch a front runner in the Plenty of Grace Stakes who'd set a glacial :25 opening quarter pace.  Today with a realistic pace and clean trip she looked easily best.  Tracked in third while confidently ridden along the rail to the top of the stretch.  Saw a seam between the leaders and burst through with a quick turn of foot and drew off as easily best.

Cashed for nearly $30 on my sixth winner of the day :)  Missed at Churchill when 2nd at 8/5 before picking up a win at Gulfstream in a one mile/70 yard synthetic maiden special Mo Vanishing sat comfortably in second/third to the turn.  Launched a rally wide and in the clear and ran away.  I'd upped the bet with the strong play on her in the win pool so I cashed for more than $15.  Got my money back when Hurricane Dream ran 2nd in the Grade 3 Dinner Party before running 2nd at Gulfstream, Woodbine, and Monmouth.  "Cashed" my ticket in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint when Coopola finished third and then they went into the gate for the Woodbine feature, the Ruling Angel Stakes traveling seven furlongs over the Tapeta main track.  Last Call was listed as the morning line choice but I noted that Ryder Ryder Ryder looked like a very deserving favorite.  The favorite had NEVER raced on the main track and her one win was an upset in the Gr 1 Natalma going a mile as a 20/1 winner to break her maiden.  AND her works were "ok."  Meanwhile my choice, 'Ryder had won on the main track, and at this distance here.  Was a flying 2nd off the layoff in a Gr 3 last time out and just looked much the best.  The crowd apparently read my analysis as they sent her off as the 2/1 favorite.  Sat patiently near the back, saving ground along the rail and the front runners blistered a :43 and change half mile.  Off the rail and into the clear heading for home and drew off by nearly a pole.  Cashed for over $30 on my eight winner overall and third stakes winner of the day.

Was a good 2nd behind an impressive winner in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint with my "UPSET SPECIAL" as Prevalence was sent off at a big 6/1 - so of course, got my money back again.  Missed at Gulfstream in their ninth before I cashed in the featured event, the Big Drama Stakes.  The concern with Dean Delivers was that he had three wins to go with SEVEN runner-up tries.  BUT he'd been racing in graded stakes and today he looked much the best in this listed event.  Sat in the clear third through the far turn before being unleashed to take off to a daylight lead and then won in hand by multiple lengths.

The JW Murphy for 3yo on the turf was next at Pimlico.  In retrospect I wish I'd upped the bet a lot more on Nagirroc from Graham Motion barn.  Had the back class and sharp efforts and as I noted in my analysis, I thought he was one of the most likely winners on the card.  Jockey Flavian Prat showed why he's so very good when within the opening 16th of a mile he went from the outside post to the rail.  Tracked the pace to the stretch and then ran away as much, MUCH the best.  The even money payoff was way too generous as I cashed for $30.

Missed in the co-featured event at Gulfstream before it was time for the Grade 1 Preakness.  Just like the Derby two weeks ago my top choice scratched the day before the race.  I considered avoiding the race but as I looked at it Bob Baffert's National Treasure looked to be the lone speed from the rail under John Velazquez.  He'd run "big races" without winning in graded events but still only held a maiden win.  I was willing to bet - it was the Preakness after all and I did NOT like Derby winner Mage - the minimum.  Easily controlled the pace before being caught by a Chad Brown 3yo at the top of the lane.  They put on quite a show before National Treasure inched clear in the final strides to give Velazquez his first ever win in the Preakness.  Good for him!

That night the Panthers took the ice in Carolina and were completely outplayed through the opening period, but only trailed 1-0.  Alexander Barkov scored one of the "sickest" goals ever in playoff history when he went between his legs and FAKED the shot, pulled it back out and flipped it casually into the net backhanded.  Tied at the end of regulation we got a power play a little over a minute into the overtime period.  Carolina's penalty kill has been fantastic all year and our power play had looked awful - so much so that most Panthers fans joked we would just rather "decline" the penalty and play 5-on-5 where we seem to control the play.  But less than 30 seconds into the man advantage we went tic-tac-toe and Matthew Tkachuk buried his second consecutive overtime winner to send us back home for Game 3 Monday night with a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.

Sunday I had picks from Monmouth.  I won with three of the seven picks to finish the weekend with NINETEEN wins from forty-two picks and nearly $40 in profits!

Preakness Weekend Highlights

Social Media this week......

Not nearly as many "contacts" this week, but still a few.  My great gal-pal friend Shari Bush from Cypress Bay has two daughters and the oldest Danielle and I are Facebook friends.  I think of Danielle often because she is an FBI agent and every time I watch "FBI" on CBS where one of the lead characters is a dark-haired attractive gal I think that COULD be Danielle.  Well my girl just recently got married and this week she posted some honeymoon pics.  I reached out to her and she responded.

This week the local ABC morning anchor, hottie Jayce Birch again posted her fashion pics and her tan suit was probably the cutest one I've seen her in and noted that.

Heading into the first playoff game the local CBS evening news did a spot on the 'Cats and my gal-pal friend Lauren talked about them so I snapped her pic and tweeted it out to her.

Gal-pal, weather girl Jennifer posted a map showing a lot of intense rain noted in the color red, so I messaged her about the "Panther red" on the map and she responded.

My three "children" have all committed to coming to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals over Memorial day weekend, should the series go that far, so I reached out to my most attractive you account manager Emma.  We then exchanged several email messages and a phone call.  She truly is one of the best I've ever had in being helpful with my tickets for the hockey games.

Finally, Lauren Pastrana did a second spot on the Panthers and again I sent her a pic and a comment.