June 21 - June 25
Summer 2023
It was an extended weekend of racing as Summer 2023 kicked off. I always look forward to the racing at Canterbury Park - especially since I have been there twice. And one of the highlights is their "Northern Stars Turf Festival" program. I'd enjoy playing the program regardless, but that it's on a Wednesday instead of Saturday is a plus and even more so that it's an evening program make it extra special for me. I didn't win as many races as I would have liked but I came out a winner for the night because I played on Xpressbet which was offering a money-back promotion on the entire card. The opener was a starter allowance event which looked to come down to either Reckoning Day or Kierkegaard who'd faced off last month. The former had run away with that contest but the latter had been a short priced favorite and I thought stood a good chance to rebound this evening. In the end, I went with Reckoning Day to extend his four race winning streak with the top rider on board and he was being heavily backed. And because of that I upped my bet to make him a double investment. Right to the front and never looked back, widening the margin through the lane.
Ran 6th in the first of the stakes and then was second in the Curtis Sampson Oaks as the 4/5 favorite. But got cash back on that one. In the Lady Canterbury I liked Regal Realm who was an improving filly being ridden by Florent Geroux tonight. Her last two Beyers made her strictly the one to beat. Was away a bit slowly in the two-turn mile turf event, but rated comfortably outside in the clear to the far turn. Asked for run she swept by the field in hand and drew off as she pleased.
I didn't win any of the final three events - two with minimum plays. In the Dark Star Turf Sprint it looked like a crap shoot so I went with a price play - 4th at 7/2. In the Canterbury Derby I had the 8/5 second choice - who'd never been on the turf. One In Vermillion set the pace to deep stretch and weakened in the final 50 yards - so at second I got my money back. And in the finale I ran 2nd at 2/1 so I got my money back. In the end I cashed on five of the seven races I made wagers.
No racing for me on Thursday, but I watched the morning races from Royal Ascot and then on Friday I made a play at Royal Ascot when "everyone" seemed to agree that the 3yo filly, Tahiyra was a star in the making. Went in for prime time and watched her draw off impressively late to cash my first ticket on the day.
There was a lot of weather on the Jersey Shore so racing was off the turf. Friday cards are always an abbreviated eight races, and I had three "PASS" races already. Take out the picks for off-the-turf racing and I had only two horses that I bet money on. In the third Lord Mio was sent off at even money, carrying my minimum wager. Confidently tracked the pace setters into the turn then took off in hand. Collected just a little over $10 on the $4.20 payoff so when I lost the second and final bet of the day (third at 5/2) I made money at Monmouth - along with the profit from the Royal Ascot bet.
Saturday: Ohio Derby Day
I'd considered going out to Gulfstream today as Kim was out of town and I was going to be here alone. And with that in mind I handicapped the Gulfstream Park card along with Ellis Park, Belmont, and Thistledown where the Ohio Derby stakes card would play out. I'm not sure how serious I was about really going, but when the local weather forecast called for 60% chances of thunderstorms with localized flooding I reasoned that I'd see maybe four races live that I was betting on and the rest of the nearly 30 bets I'd make I'd be watching on a small computer screen with limited if any sound. AND I'd drive 45 minutes, perhaps in rain storms and/or get drenched coming to or from the car - OR I could be in the comfort of the "Sunshine Simulcast Center" and watch the races of a big screen HD TV with full analysis and race calls. So I stayed home. Missed on the first three and again had the thought run through my head - "stick with it, you'll get your wins before the day is over." And then they came in a bunch! The third from Thistledown was a MSW for two-year-olds and there were some intriguing first time starters in the field. BUT City Scene had been a sharp second on debut and in that race the 2yo filly had faced the colts! Today facing unproven runners and back with her "own kind" looked to make her have a big advantage. I planned to double the bet but she was being hammered early on so I upped the bet a notch. She went right to the front but was joined by a debut runner. They dueled to the turn before she began to edge away. Once clear in the stretch she took off to win by open lengths as much the best and I had my first winner.
In New York I got what turned out to be my only win there (from limited picks) when second time starter No Show Sammy Jo showed the improvement I anticipated and ran away as easily best in a MSW mile turf event. Then got my first win at Ellis Park when Roja Ligera asserted her class edge in this $20K nw2L sprint. She'd never seen restricted runners and when she burst out of the gate to a daylight lead it was quickly all over.
Ran third at even money in a 2-lifetime Belmont event before scoring again at Ellis. You COULD have made a case that Sahlabiya didn't want to win as she'd already been out five times with three second place finishes and a third. But for me I thought she was ready to run huge. After two good efforts for Chad Brown as a 2yo he sent her to the Woodbine Oaks. Then a barn change and she ran sharply off an eight month layoff at the GP Championship Meet for Brian Lynch before last time setting the pace and weakening to be second going 9 1/2 lengths at the tough Keeneland spring meet. Meeting Ellis maidens would be a far easier task I thought - and third off the layoff often produces a big effort. I tripled the bet. Right to the front and clear by daylight. Was collared on the turn, dueled to the top of the lane and put that one away as she spurted clear. She was getting weary going the mile and a sixteenth after dealing with the pace challenge but she lasted by open lengths. Two "PASS" races, a scratch and a "game time decision PASS" made the next bet the fifth at Ellis and I won again as Pigalle who was last heading into the turn before sweeping by the field and drawing off.
The seventh at Thistledown was a nw3L allowance and I noted in my analysis that I was betting Fit To Fly but the wager would in part be determined by how Onasa ran in the 5th at TDN. Both were trained by Larry Rivelli and were shipping in here. Onasa was exiting a maiden win going wire to wire and I just wasn't convinced enough to bet but Fit To Fly had already won a few times. Not a fan that his last win had been at 5f on the turf AND that he'd never been beyond 5 1/2 furlongs as he entered this 6f dash. BUT he looked "good enough," and if Onasa ran well......And that one was a convincing winner so I not only played but upped the bet. Dueled from the time the gate latch sprung to the top of the lane then edged clear through the final furlong for win #7 on the afternoon.
Ended the strong run with another winner at Gulfstream. Many "value player" handicappers would look at Hot Foot Susie as an excellent opportunity to get a good price on someone else. She had already been out TEN times and was dropping in class today from a pricey $40K level to this basement $12.5K price. Red flags for sure. But TO ME the sharp barn was finally putting her where she could win. Right to the front and whistled the opening quarter in :21 and change going the abbreviated 5 1/2 furlong distance. Would she tire? Was well in hand turning for home and drew away showing she was well deserving of the short price AND my bet.
Over the next hour and a half and six bets it was a "return to normalcy" as I ran 2nd at 6/5 at Gulfstream then won at Monmouth when I didn't know if Justintimeforwine would set the pace and tire as she'd done oh-so-many times. But under great front-running rider Jose Ferrer I thought she looked like the lone speed and MIGHT steal it as a price. Never looked back at a pleasant 5/2 price with my minimum play on board. Then I missed on four straight (one third and three off the board finishes.
Got back on track in the Monmouth featured event, the Goldwood Stakes. If you'll recall from the Friday program in New Jersey we'd been off the turf, so I was uncertain what would come of the Saturday program. But the rain had gone away and while it was overcast, races had been on the turf (i.e. the Justinthetimeforwine race). But as the horses came onto the track for this 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint the skies opened up. It didn't start to rain, it was POURING. Right to the gate and off they went. I thought Train To Artemus was a clear favorite and a very likely winner - but what about in the pouring rain over a grass-slicked course? Broke sharply then took back off the pace. Angled outside then split horses at the top of the lane and ran on to be much the best under Paco Lopez with my triple investment on board. And minutes later I got my third win from Gulfstream when Local Abarrio was much the best.
Looked like my prime time play on Gerrymander at Belmont was solid when she led in hand to the top of the lane. Looked to me like Joel Rosario wasn't paying attention and thought he could coast home. When another filly came to her with all the momentum he reacted too late - in my opinion to put up a fight and I finished second. Rallied to be second in the Lady Jacqueline at Thistledown at even money, but got my money back as Xpressbet offered money-back on the stakes events, so I made my stakes bets there. The final race of was the featured Grade 3 Ohio Derby featuring Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phils. By the numbers he looked to be an easy winner and he was, drawing off as he pleased.
And so I closed a great day with numbers of 12-for-27 and a clear profit.
An interesting story to kick off Sunday. It was at some point shortly after the Ohio Derby that I was on social media and I saw a tweet that Equinox was running in the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen in Japan. If you follow my racing you may recall that on Dubai World Cup Day I was watching the races getting ready for my day at the track and Equinox was preparing to run in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic on the turf. All the TV handicappers said he was the "best horse in the world and should be an easy winner." I did a quick Google search and confirmed that opinion then watched him win so impressively that I actually said outloud "WOW" as he ran through the lane effortlessly to score. So when I saw that he was running in Japan I thought I'd bet him. Thought I'd go "prime time" on him and then add a secondary wager using the two platforms and bankrolls I have. So I opened up Xpressbet and found first of all that the race from Japan had a 2:40 am EST post time. OK - I won't be staying up for THAT! And I made a $20 bet. Opened up Twin Spires and discovered that for some reason Twin Spires allowed betting on Races 1-9 from Japan but the three big stakes races were "no bet" contests through their platform. I could never figure out why, but I decided maybe it was a sign that I should be content to let the $20 bet ride. Went to bed and fell asleep soundly. I always seem to wake up at least once if not a couple times during the night and I did again. Raised my head to check the time, and it was as though I had an internal "post time clock" as the time was 2:35 am - I can watch the race! Opened up Xpressbet and saw that with minutes to post time Equinox was the prohibitive 1/9 choice in a 17-horse field and that at least ten of the runners had $0 bet on them. OH MY. I quickly upped the bet from $20 to $50 to make him the BET of the Week. The announcers noted that the eleven furlong race had a short stretch and that was a concern for me as Equinox - who I'd seen go wire to wire in Dubai - quickly dropped to the back, 16th of 17. But the rider seemed awfully confident. Into the final turn and still at the back....what about the traffic and the short stretch. Eased the champion into the clear and still was not showing any urgency. Some 5-to-10 wide into the short stretch, still mid-pack when Equinox, always within himself lengthened stride and easily went on by to win! Smiled, shut down the computer and headed back to bed with my first winner of "the day" in hand.
The Monmouth card on Sunday saw us again off the grass with the torrential storms at the end of Saturday's program. The ten races carded included four grass races and when I handicapped the card Saturday morning I was mindful that the previous day's turf races had been rained off so I was uncertain what racing conditions would be. I found only five races that I liked from the ten and two of those were on the turf. In the opener I liked a runner but ONLY if it stayed on the grass. Races were off so he scratched. My second bet, which turned out to be the first of the afternoon was a "Paco play" because he had landed on a maiden runner who'd been to the gate TWENTY-FIVE times. An automatic "NO" for me under normal circumstances, but at Monmouth with first time Paco I was willing to risk the minimum. Speed to the stretch and stopped. Oh well. In the fourth I really liked Hair Point who again had Paco aboard. My oldest Jeff was visiting for the day and I said to him prior to the race, "the biggest reason this horse may not win is that the first three races saw the favorite win twice and get beat in a photo after stumbling badly at the start." But 'Haig looked strong to me on the strength of the move to the Jorge Delgado barn - he had all the stats. Took the lion's share of money and left the gate as the short-priced 4/5 favorite. Missed the break by a step or two, but advanced behind the leading trio to sit fourth through the turn. The rail opened up like the parting of the Red Sea and he looked home free, but the leader was still clear and dove down inside putting 'Haig in a tight spot. Behind by 3/4 of a length he looked done, but at the 16th pole Paco implored his horse for more and he muscled through and got clear in the final fifty yards for the win. ANYBODY but Paco loses that race. Strong ride - well done.
The next race, in the middle of the card was the featured Tale of the Cat scheduled for a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I had a pick for both turf and dirt, and with it moving to the main track there were only four runners left, including my pick, with Sammy Camacho up. Tracked fourth of the four to the far turn, slid into the clear, dueled to the final 100 yards and edged clear.
Missed in the finale, but when my pick was cold on the board I backed off the bet, so finished the day 2-for-4 at Monmouth - 3-for-5 counting the early morning Japan race - and a clear profit again. So for the week I was 16-of-37 with a $2.13 ROI overall. A very good week!
Social Media this week.....
Multiple interactions again this week - it IS important to me as I've mentioned of late because I have very little in person contact. Worth repeating since Lauren Pastrana is a social media friend that I frequently interact with. On Monday her hair looked different and - because we ARE friends - I tweeted out to her and she answered right back that indeed she had changed her hair.
Again I had several exchanges with my gal-pal Karli Barnett. The first two were "very interesting." You'll recall that I have a "deal" in the works with Viking TV to do an episode about my travels, maybe a series. So I'd sent a personal message to Karli and she thought that was cool. That was last week. So I responded to her and asked if she would be a "guest" on my program. And she replied she would if her contract allowed that. Interesting....so I then pursued the conversation and said that if her contract did not we should co-host and travel the world together. And added - because I know she's expressed a desire to go to Greece - that we should do "our" first show from Greece. Nearly always when I send a personal message to Karli it's multiple days before she replies. I sent this out and within the hour she replied, "Sounds amazing!" Wait....WOULD she really go with me? INTERESTING. Had another exchange with her on the weekly live chat.
Gal pal and former work buddy Melissa posted a picture from yet another of her workouts - she's so dedicated. And I noted that I loved her hat, a Florida Panthers hat. Made me feel all fuzzy when she responded "I wore it for you." :)
Good gal-pal to both Kim and I, Shelly posted about being on a vacation with her family to Montana. Pics looked great, as Shelly always does.
Finally, former student and social media friend Michelle posted the first of a series of photos from her wonderful trip to Scotland. Then she posted about it being her birthday. She reacted to both my comments. She was one of THE sweetest girls I ever had in class at Cypress Bay.
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