Closing Weekend At Churchill Downs

 July 28 - 30

It was a MOST EPIC week as our Florida Panthers won a dramatic, winner-take-all Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final on Monday in front of a thunderous and electric crowd which included me and my grandson Oliver, as well as our oldest son Jeff, his girl Trista, and our buddy Enzo & his son.  Just stunning, and so long in the making.  Kudos to my wife Kim who made the ultimate Grandma sacrifice by giving up her seat so Oliver could go.

In the racing world, Friday......

I couldn't watch the live race but I did see the replay from Lone Star (because they block their simulcast signal as part of a three-year dispute between horsemen and management over purses), but in their second, my own horse, Classic Cut proved a winner on the comback trail.  Because his account is in the red, I and the rest of the owners did not get any money.  Oh well.....the thrill of thoroughbred ownership!

It was the second Friday card offered on the Jersey Shore and after passing the first I liked Namesake in the second, a two-lifetime, two-turn mile.  Earlier in the spring he’d raced in richer, open races but last time out plummeted to $8K nw2L and missed the break.  Still, rallied to be second best.  He SHOULD win I thought.  Tracked the leaders into the turn, surged three wide and drew clear.  The 6/5 price was “fair” all things considering.

Passed the third and came back with my second winner in as many bets when Spouty’s Girl was sent out as the favorite in a moderate $15K maiden claimer.  Again, caution was a key word as she’d run well in MSW races prior to today, but she was coming off of a year-long layoff.  I’d probably have either passed or gone just a minimum play except it was trainer Kelly Breen and jockey Paco Lopez teaming up on the likely favorite.  Right to the front, cleared by daylight without ever being asked and when give the cue took off as TONS the best.  Again, the 6/5 payoff was more than fair.

After running third at 6/5 in an entry level allowance I saw on the Fan Duel broadcast that Gulfstream had a prohibitive favorite running in their 7^th.  Looked like, as Announcer Pete would say, “Eeeeeeaaasy Money!”  so I laid a double investment down and watched Proverb walk with it. 

Missed with the last two, both minimum bets to finish the day 3-for-6.

Saturday started as just my grandson Oliver and I were at home, Kim having left Friday late afternoon to take her Mom back to Pa.  It was Stephen Foster day at Churchill and it was a multi-stakes race day at Woodbine, so I played those two tracks along with my regular handicapping at Monmouth.  Missed the first two at Churchill, both of them claiming events before getting my first winner with River Dog.  He was running in a claiming event at Monmouth and like all the rest you had to filter through several races to make a case for him, but he looked best and fastest.  Went right to the front, but when asked to finish turning for home he was collared.  Almost always a certain kiss of death, he battled to the final two hundred yards and surged to keep the lead and get the win.

Off the board with the next two and then only second best as the 3/5 favorite in Churchill's fourth.  Got back to the winner's circle in the fifth from Louisville in an entry level allowance with Scalable.  As I noted in my analysis, even though we've been racing at Churchill since late April, still amazes me that the optional claiming tag is a big $100K and the purse for this first level allowance is a rich $127K.  That's more than some graded events at the "Championship Meet" over the winter at Gulfstream Park.  Trainer Todd Pletcher and the owners had high expectations because after an "OK" 4th at Saratoga on debut she was sent to Santa Anita to run in the Grade 2 Chandelier, yes....as a maiden....and ran 2nd.  Right back in the Breeders' Cup where she was away slowly but rallied for a credible fourth.  Walked with a one-turn mile in a MSW at GP where Mr. Todd is king.  Then 4th in the Grade 3 Forward Gal and split the field in the Grade 2 GP Oaks.  Now in allowance company she should be good to go.  Could not find running room and with only about two hundred yards to go and behind horses she found a narrow seam, shot through and was up in time.  WOW, exciting.

Made it two in a row when Veterans Beach went right to the front in a turf claiming route on the Jersey Shore, walked through an opening quarter in :25 and change and was long gone.

After an off-the-board finish at Woodbine it was time for some stakes action at Churchill Downs where the Grade 2 Wise Dan was set to go a mile and a sixteenth on the turn.  Wise Dan had been Horse of the Year and one of my all-time favorite horses, in fact his photo from winning the BC Mile at Santa Anita when my son Brad made a big bet on him hangs on the wall in our family room  Today Ottoman Fleet looked best after winning the prep for this, the Grade 3 Arlington a month ago.  I looked for a "new shooter," but he was just the best.  Inherited the lead when no one else wanted it, waltzed through a :48 opening half mile and the race was over.  EEEEAAASSSSY Money as Announcer Pete would say.  Less than five minutes later Like What I See was much the best wiring a turf sprint at Monmouth.

The Grade 2 Fleur de Lis was my BET of the Day at Churchill and when I handicapped the race I thought I might get a "fair" price on Bill Mott's rising star, Scylla.  And in the initial betting the filly she'd beaten handily in the prep for this - the Shawnee Stakes - was the short priced favorite.  But by post time the money showed on Scylla.  Made her move into the lane and there was a three-way battle for a couple hundred yards with some bumping and shifting going on before she drew off as much the best.  Immediately the INQUIRY sign lit up and there were riders objections.  The first thing going for me was that all spring the stewards have been exceptionally reluctant to DQ anyone.  The second thing was if you watched the head-on replay it seemed pretty clear that while Scylla was part of the exchanges, it also seemed like she'd run the straightest course of the three involved.  Long LONG look at the replays before "NO CHANGE" was announced.  :)

Ran 2nd in the Monmouth feature before winning back to back stakes.  First, Filo Di Arianna pressed a longshot front runner to the top of the long Woodbine stretch before setting sail for the wire, a daylight winner as my lone score in Toronto on the day.  And then Brilliant Berti was an upset, 5-1 winner in the American Derby at Churchill for me.

The final winner on the day came in the finale at Monmouth where Wandering West proved best in a cheap claiming event to notch his second win in a row - that's unusual at this lower level of racing.

Closing Day at Churchill Downs - Sunday

Nearly right after Oliver and I woke up we were in the car to get our Wawa morning drinks and then hit the road for his return home, back in Orlando.  Because it was early on a Sunday morning the drive was smooth.  The boy was such a good traveler, and for that matter was just a pleasure to have here all week long.  I especially enjoyed the day and a half of just us boys :)  The racing started with an easy winner in the CD opener when Musical Mischief ran off by daylight.  You had to figure his graded experience would tell in this mile and a sixteenth test at the second allowance level, and it did as he was long gone under the wire.  

Missed at both CD and Monmouth - the two tracks I was playing today - before In The End was the easiest of winners on the Jersey Shore.  Was the favorite heading into the gate, but at the last minute he was pounded to 1/5 odds.  Under a stranglehold while coasting on the lead, he took flight for the wire turning for home and it was more like a public workout than a race.

The first of the multiple stakes in Louisville was a 2yo filly event, the Debutante.  Vodka With A Twist had won on debut with a field-best Beyer of 73 six weeks ago.  The owners must have thought they had something special because they quickly moved the filly out of a blue-collar barn to one of the top barns in Southern California, Phil D'Amatto and replaced journeyman Declan Cannon in the saddle with top national jockey Flavian Prat.  Right to the front where she whistled the opening quarter in :21 and change.  Turning for home any hope by the other fillies that she'd tire were quickly dismissed as she opened up and ran away.  WHOOOO HOOOO.

Oliver and I were headed out to lunch with his parents and his other set of grand parents when I got a text from my oldest son, Jeff "you're on fire again today."  I must have won the fifth race.  And when I turned on the replay I could see that Gulfport had the winning move heading for home, but what I'd not anticipated was that he went off at better than 5/1 so I cashed for more than $50!

Before I made my bets for the day at Churchill Downs I'd noted on Twitter that all three local analysts had their BET of the Day in the Maxfield Stakes.  And what was curious to me was that my pick, Raging Torrent was NOT their choice.  I pulled up the past performances and while I could see what they were thinking, to ME that their choice was an impressive last out maiden winner did not hold water with the proven record of Raging Torrent.  The gates opened, he rocketed to the front and it was all over but the shouting!  My fifth win from seven selections.  YOWZA.  Well you know this probably can't continue and it didn't.  I was done for the day but the early success enabled me to win at a near 40% clip and have a profitable third day.  For the weekend I finished at better than 40% and with a clear profit for the three days of racing.

With the end of racing Sunday, it brought down the curtain on the first three months of the spring/summer racing season.  Time to add up the stats, and the numbers were very good!

Next week we will be heading off to Europe for a river cruise with AMA Waterways.  You can follow our trip by clicking HERE.

Social Media this week.....

It was a big week for "chatting" with my social media peeps.

Kelly

Michelle

Jayce

Katie

Trish

Chloe

Karli

Teri

Lauren

Ohio Derby Weekend

 June 20 - 23

Well, the weekend was originally to be highlighted by the Northern Stars Turf Festival at Canterbury with a 6pm post time on Saturday.  But at around 5:30 when I went to check for scratches, I discovered it was raining and all the turf events were moved to the main track.  Had six selections from the eight races and five of them were scratched.  Sigh....so I abandoned the card and called it a day.  Kicked off the week with a few picks on Thursday and again on Friday where Monmouth ran their first mid-afternoon Friday card that will continue through the end of the summer season over Labor Day weekend.

Thursday kicked off the racing week as I had twilight selections from Churchill and Woodbine.  But as I was starting to watch the FanDuel broadcast they were about ten minutes out from the start of the 9th race at Gulfstream.  EVERYONE noted that Great Venezuela was an almost certain winner of this five and a half furlong starter event over the all weather and would be pointed towards stakes action next.  Well, if they're "giving money away" why not.  Invested in the race and watched as Great Venezuela tracked the speed into the turn, eased by and ran off as easily best.

Only had one more winner on the day (from five selections) but Papilio was the "best" of the day at Churchill Downs.  Since arriving in North America he'd run in EIGHT graded stakes and seven of those saw him run very strongly.  OK, so he'd only won once, but the drop into this second level allowance made him the clear class of the field.  Tracked behind a wall of horses into the far turn, found a seam at the top of the lane, burst through and was long gone.

Friday marked the first time Monmouth would be running three times each week.  I had five picks from the late afternoon, eight-race card.  In the second, a 2yo MSW I thought firster Noble Force was a solid choice in spite of the fact that all seven were making their career debut this afternoon.  A best-of-85 bullet work, oh my, for trainer Jorge Delgado (19% win rate with FTS and 29% with his 2yo) and with Paco on board he looked ultra-live.  Pounded down to even money he broke a step slowly, recovered to get to the front before the opening quarter mile was done.  Challenged immediately by a 7/1 outsider he put that one away turning for home and drew off as MUCH the best.

Passed the 3rd and the 4th before coming to another maiden event, this one for 3 and up going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass.  When stretched out to two turns on the grass after a dirt sprint debut Main Beach had improved her Beyer significantly.  Closed with a rush to be 2nd best.  The $525K filly looked like a good bet to me.  By the time they'd turned down the backside she'd put her head in front and that was the end of that.  Went off at a generous 9/5 so I cashed for almost $30 on my final winner of the day.

Saturday's racing was "highlighted" by the Ohio Derby card at Thistledowns in Cleveland, but with the exception of the Derby the other races were not anything to really write home about, so by and large it was just "a day" at the races.  I was very much looking forward to the 6pm post for Canterbury Park where it was Northern Lights Turf Festival Night and I had six selections.  But around 5:30 pm when I checked in there it was rainy and all races were off the turf, costing me five of my six picks to I scrapped the entire card from my selection sheet.  Got started right out of the gate in the Monmouth opener, a claiming turf sprint.  On the Dot had beaten $40K rivals last time out and her four Beyers beat every one of the most recent figures from her rivals by a pole.  Tracked in third and cried out for running room into the lane.  Finally got clear, surged and was up in time.

The opener at Thistledown went off less than five minutes later, a MSW going a two-turn mile.  Normally I'm not a fan of horses like Gut Instinct who was exiting back-to-back seconds in races like this.  Especially at a smaller venue like TDN.  BUT his last two Beyers were better than anything else on the page.  Right to the front, collared and headed into the lane ("this is over") but re-rallied and edged clear late at a very nice $8.40 payoff.

Missed at Churchill & Monmouth before, surprisingly, got back to the winner's circle with a starter optional claiming at Thistledowns.  My top pick was NOT a bet, but as the wagering opened, Reckless LJ was being pounded in the multi-race pools and the WIN pool.  Looked at the Form and figured everyone else must "know something" that I wasn't seeing, so I jumped on board - I'm sure the won on Thursday with Great Venezuela as a hunch play figured into the back of my mind.  Pressed the leader while under a strangle hold to the top of the lane then ran off handily as MUCH the best.

Missed at Monmouth before getting my first winner in Louisville.  Outadore had been pressed when breaking from the far outside in a similar 5f turf sprint through wicked splits.  Looked long gone to me.  Burst the the front and that my friends was the end of that.

Missed in an allowance at TDN and then was surprised, somewhat in Churchill's Grade 3 Chicago when the favorite, Vahva - who I'd had last time - won again.  I really thought Society would control from the opening bell and she did go right to the front but backed up late to be third.  The seventh on the Jersey Shore was just like oh-so-many races there over the years - it's all about are you looking for a good price or are you looking for the most likely winner.  Todd Pletcher was dropping Good Medicine into a claiming spot, and I've found that on the few occasions that the Hall of Famer does this he drops them into a spot where they have a great chance to win.  Racing near the back to the far turn, he rallied but found himself blocked behind horses.  Shot thru on the rail and surged to the front to provide me with my fifth winner on the afternoon.

Missed on the next four - twice at Thistledowns at odds-on before cashing my next ticket.  The 9th at Monmouth was their feature, the Goldwood Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf.  SIX of the ten entered were exiting the The Very One Stakes at Pimlico and I tossed them all.  Why?  Because the 2nd and 3rd place finishers - both in here - had gone off at odds of 22/1 and 28/1.  That CANNOT be an indication of a strong race.  I went with Beauty of the Sea who was NOT exiting that race.  Paco Lopez was up for trainer Joe Orseno and those two hook up at a near 30% clip.  Off a six month layoff she'd posted back-to-back career best Beyers and now was going third off the shelf.  Was away sharply, but was third into the turn then was checked sharply having to take up - an almost certain kiss of death, especially in an abbreviated turf sprint like this.  Recovered stride but was blocked behind horses.  Looked to have a seam turning for home, went for it, SHUT OFF.  How much bad luck can she have?  Paco dove inside and she surged to the front to WIN going away!

In the Jersey Shore finale I picked up my ninth winner of the day when Wandering West - in a similar manner to my R9 winner - tracked the leaders, dove down inside and drew off.

While I missed in the highlighted Grade 3 Ohio Derby I did win one of the stakes races, the Lady Jacqueline Stakes going nine furlongs on the main track.  When my top pick scratched, I didn't have a second choice listed, but I looked at the past performances and when the first flash of the odds board came up I felt confident to stick with my double investment on Misty Veil.  Tracked the dueling long shot runners into the turn, accelerated quickly to the front and drew off by a pole impressively.

Sunday saw me start the day with back-to-back second place finishes in "typical" race track logic fashion.  New York Strong was the prohibitive 2/5 favorite, had dead aim on the 7/1 front runner.  Made his move and could not get by.  Then Eyeing Clover was the prohibitive 3/5 favorite....took the lead into the far turn, opened up as much the best and was nailed inside the final 100 yards by the 8/1 outsider.  WOW.  Came back with two straight wins in my next two plays but both of them, Ebben in the 6th and Few and Far in the 7th were hammered in the final minutes of wagering to go off as odds-on favorites.  Still cashed tickets and ended the day 2-for-5, 40%....can't argue with that.

On Tuesday night our Florida Panthers had a chance to close out the Stanley Cup Final at home but despite desperate efforts in the third, fell short 3-2.  Then Friday they were in Edmonton, again with a chance to close the deal.  Rather than go to the Watch Party we had sixteen friends and family over to watch with the game playing in both the family room and living room, only to fall again.  One final chance will come in an epic Game 7 on Monday night!

Social Media this week.....

Early in the week our "adopted daughter" Jillian posted photos from a family trip, with her parents, to Alaska.  Kim and I have been SIX times and have a seventh booked for summer 2025.  I commented to Jilly how happy I was that she got to experience this wonderful adventure.

For several years our gal-pal  Shelly worked with us and was even Kim's assistant volleyball coach.  This week she posted that she only had a couple more days of being 49 - how can young Shelly be turning 50?  What does that make me?  LOL.

Fashionista Jayce asked how everyone's Saturday was going, so I replied and she "liked" my reply :)

Sunday evening we were watching TV and Kim wanted a short break.  I opened Facebook and saw my gal-pal, former CBS-Miami weekend anchor Karli Barnett was hosting a live Facebook chat.  I also saw she was close to finishing up so I jumped on and said Hi!  Out of the blue Karli commented about how big a fan I was of the Florida Panthers.  Ahhhh, my girl knows me so well :)

My gal-pal Lauren and I messaged several times this week.  I shared our pic from the Watch Party for Game 4 and she very quickly "liked" the pic.  Last week Lauren had shared that she had a big story coming out.  What I didn't realize was that the CBS-Miami station gave up the entire 7-7:30 news program to air her special.  It was so well done and so heart-felt.  I messaged her after the short 3 minute piece at 5:30 and then we exchanged several messages after the airing of the complete piece.  And I also messaged with her the next day after I shared the link on both Facebook & Twitter.  At the end of the week I was happy to see her back on the anchor desk and she remarked about how hard she'd been working on her special.  She also liked and commented when I shared with her that we were hosting 16 people for a Watch Party for Game 6 - and shared the disappointment of our third loss afterwards.  THEN over the weekend she posted about ANOTHER piece that she'd put together where she - this is so impressive - had written the entire script AND did all the camera work.  WOW.