October 4 - 5
As we sailed through France I was able to make some wagers on Opening Weekend at Keeneland and on some other Breeders' Cup "WIN and You're In" races. Neither of my betting platforms were "open" from France, so big time thanks to my son Brad for making the wagers for me!
Friday was OPENING DAY at Keeneland and featured three graded stakes on the card. BUT, this was another example of when handicapping the wager is determined by the field and not by the quality or level of the race. I did have selections for the three races but only one of them was an increased wager while on the undercard I had three "up the ante" wagers planned. Passed the opener before in Race 2 we had a one mile turf event for maiden two-year-olds. Both Test Score and West Beach had experience and both exited stakes tries. And West Beach had better Beyer figures, but I thought Test Score had exited the better race AND had the better chance to improve. Tracked ground on the inside through the turn, then was checked when trying to make a move....that's never good. But found a seam between rivals and burst through to get the score! I'm on the board.
I had the 2/5 favorite in the third only to see the filly run a disappointing fourth. In Race 4 two-year-olds were sprinting six furlongs in an entry level allowance. Stonestreet Stables Eclatant had debuted with an eye catching win and a field best 82 Beyer. Any improvement and she'd win by a pole. BUT she was facing winners for the first time. Tracked the 16/1 leader into the stretch, was cut loose and she blew by to draw off handily.
After passing on both Race 5 & 6, the stakes action kicked off with the oldest run stakes race in North America, the Grade 2 Phoenix - a "WIN and You're In" Breeders' Cup race. Brad Cox was sending Federal Judge into stakes company for the first time and not only did I think he had a chance to improve enough to win, but more importantly I thought the likely prohibitive favorite - a Wesley Ward runner - was vulnerable. On the upside, he'd won the Gr 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga this summer. But on the flip side, that was his first win in two years! Federal Judge burst out of the gate from his rail post, was quickly clear by daylight and rattled off the opening quarter in a sizzling :21 and change. Can he keep going after going so fast early I wondered. Turned for home and extended the lead to win wire to wire!
Saturday I looked at three tracks - Belmont at the Big A, Keeneland, and Santa Anita. And as I went through them, because we were cruising the Saone River in France I didn't even consider or look at any but the stakes races on the three cards. The good news at the end of the day (which for me in Europe was in the middle of the night!) was that I again had a good day in Lexington, Kentucky where I went 2-for-5, to finish 5-for-11 for the weekend at this tough Keeneland track. The bad news was that from the four selections at Belmont, three scratched (won the other); and even more disappointing, at Santa Anita I DID have the most likely winner in all four as my selections went off at 5/2, 1/9, 3/2 and 6/5. But I finished with two fourth place finishes, a third and a second. BOOOOO. The first runner that actually went to post was in Belmont's 8th, the Grade 1 Champagne for two-year-old colts looking to punch their ticket to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and become a likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby next sprint. Chancer McPatrick had done something unusual for a juvenile when he rallied from dead last in his six furlong Saratoga debut and won going away. Stretched out to seven furlongs in the Grade 1 Hopeful and again rallied from the back of the pack to win. His running style SHOULD be suited to longer distances. Last down the backstretch, accelerated effortlessly while passing horses on the turn to reach contention in third. Then opened up to collar the leader in mid-stretch and draw off convincingly. This colt just may be one of the few NY 2yo's that go from one-turn to two-turns in the Breeders' Cup that I'll like!
In the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland, going a mile on the turf, Gina Romantica probably figured to win. But she'd shown some inconsistency in her career. For me the key was the fact that she'd won two of three here in Lexington including a career best number. Add on she finished fourth, within a length of the best male turf milers in the world in last year's Breeder's Cup and that sealed the deal. In retrospect I should have taken the opportunity to up the bet because she was a VERY generous 3/1 at post time. Tracked the leaders to the stretch, accelerated between runners and drew off convincingly to score at a big $8.84 payoff.
The selection I was MOST happy with was Carl Spackler in the "WIN and You're In" Breeders' Cup prep, the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland. I'd seen him finish an ultra impressive 2nd behind future multiple graded stakes winner Far Bridge at Gulfstream two winters back and had noted he would be a stakes winner. Had him in his next few but after a disappointing effort I went against him last time out at Saratoga and he won at a more-than-fair price. I knew better. So today I was on board. I was somewhat surprised when he went RIGHT to the front, but he was quickly clear and wasn't threatened until the field looked to be closing in through the far turn. Oh he was just toying with them as he opened up and drew off easily!
For the weekend I was a solid 6-for-16, almost 40% which has been my number for the abbreviated Fall Championship Season. We arrive home next Sunday so if I play next weekend it will be limited picks again. Looking forward to this year's Breeders' Cup on the first weekend in November!
Social Media so far.....
We've had over 1,000 social media hits on our posts from the trip through Sunday :) Big time thanks to my gal-pals Lauren & Teri for following along each day so far :)
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