April 5 - 8
Missed with my next four over a spaced-out 2 1/2 hours of slow action. But when I got back into the winner's circle it was with my BET of the Day in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks. Bob Baffert's Tenma had won four of five and was the clear-cut division leader of the 3yo fillies on the west coast. The only concern was that she is a mid-pack runner and in a short field would have to run down the speed of the race, a Baffert stretch-out filly. It played out just like the way it looked on paper with Tenma drawing even inside the final furlong before drawing off as easily best. It was a short price, but it is as much about my picking the winners and investing to my confidence level for me as it is about the money.
Less than five minutes after post time of that 100-point qualifier for the Kentucky Oaks in So Cal, they were going into the gate for the same number of points in New York for the Grade 3 Gazelle. As I remarked in my analysis, I didn't think there was a legitimate threat to the division leader for the Oaks in the Gazelle, but with a little creativity Ballerina d'Oro looked pretty convincing to me. First, she was the ONLY filly in the field who'd ever run a Beyer in the 70's and she'd done so going today's 9 furlong trip in the Grade 2 Demoiselle over this same track last fall. And secondly, while some handicappers might find her 2025 debut in the Grade 2 Davona Dale a bit of a concern, I was not worried. And that's not just because it was her first start, but because I have seen trainer Chad Brown have two straight winters at Gulfstream have very little success as his horses appear to be preparing for spring and summer campaigns. So the "OK" third that day was a clear prep for this in my opinion. She sat the ideal trip behind a dueling trio of fillies before swooping around them into the lane to apparently take off to a daylight win. But she lugged in, lost focus and couldn't get past the leader until inside the 16th pole she suddenly straightened out, realized her job and surged past to the narrow win. Two Oaks preps and two wins for me!
Just over fifteen minutes following the Gazelle the field at Santa Anita had reached the gate up at the top of the unique downhill turf course. I liked Queen Maxima NEARLY as much as my BET of the Day, Tenma and invested a "prime time" bet on her. She was on a three-race winning streak and interestingly those had come in (1) a flat 6f turf sprint, (2) a dirt sprint, and more importantly (3) a down the hill turf sprint. Right to the front, held a measured lead as they crossed the main track into the stretch back on the grass and then took off as the announcer aptly called, "it's a one horse race" - a dominant win to give me three in a row!
By all rights I SHOULD have had four straight as in the Grade 2 Carter Handicap, my horse, Quint's Brew dueled through swift fractions, put away his rival, was clear inside the 16th pole and was nailed on the wire by the closest of margins. Followed that with a third in the marathon Excelsior Stakes before scoring in the handicapping feat of the day. The 100th running of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Rodriguez looked very wide open to me and I planned to go in for the minimum on Euro shipper Hill Road who'd run his first race on dirt in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He ran a promising third at a huge 60/1 price. Made his 3yo debut in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby and ran third again. But when I checked the scratches for the day he was withdrawn. I thought about the race several times during the day and looked over the past performances and was leaning to passing the race. I decided I'd wait until I could hear what the FanDuel analysts thought and everyone really liked the NY winner of the Gotham who was the favorite. I was very close to making the bet when I looked at my initial analysis. I was reminded that I'd listed Bob Baffert's $485K shipper Rodriguez as the second choice. In my opinion he was clearly the third best 3yo from the Baffert barn. But as I looked at his past performances I noted his one really good race had come - when I'd bet him - when he went to the front and easily wired a route race earning a 100 Beyer. Wait.....what IF he went right to the front here. Looked down the past performances and NO ONE looked like a challenger for the lead. Am I on to something? Just then Mike Smith was being interviewed on FanDuel and they said, so how do you think you'll play this race since you're drawn on the rail. The Hall of Famer casually said, "I'm going to let him go" - UH OH. Bob Baffert with an expensive 3yo colt, who's the lone speed, on the rail, with Mike Smith on board SAYING "I'm going to let him go." I doubled the bet. Right to the front with a narrow advantage as they spun out of the turn. Now we'll find out I thought. Asked and accelerated drawing off by nearly four widening lengths. And the best part, some how the crowd - despite all the angles AND him saying on air he WAS going to the lead - let him go off at better than 7/2 odds. The $9.30 payoff allowed me to cash for almost $50! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
My sizzling mid-day streak of winning five of eight was tempered by one win from the last three selections (Dolomite easily in the Aqueduct finale) as I ended the day with a nearly 40% winning average.
Sunday I had handicapped the Keeneland card - thinking it would be the END of the weekend racing, when in fact it was technically "opening day" in Lexington. It was an "ok" day for me as I scored with two of the eight selections (with a third and two seconds) to keep me mostly "entertained" during the day, my fifth day of being "Home Alone."
Monday arrived and instead of having the day to compile my weekend totals and write up the racing, it was "Opening Day" as the Friday card was run at Keeneland. The track had been sloppy on Sunday and all turf races were moved to the main track. There had only been light rain during the day so I was hopeful that maybe the grass races would go today. The stakes race was kept on the lawn, especially with it being late in the day, but the early turf races were washed to the dirt. In what SHOULD have been the first bet of the spring I had Wesley Ward's Pinky Finger who made her debut an impressive one, bolting to the front and never looking back. Only jockey Joel Rosario did so as he looked over his shoulder, once, twice, and a third time to be sure no one was coming....and there wasn't anyone even close.
The second was a third level allowance written to go a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. But now it was reduced to a field of five going to the first finish line on the main track. My horse, clearly, had scratched. I looked over who was left and it seemed pretty clear that Peignoir was the one, AND ONLY front runner in the field. Never looked back as the favorite.
I looked at the field for the fourth, another off-the-turf affair and I just didn't have enough confidence in any of them to bet. One of my top three was the winner, and paid a "fair" price. The fifth was a 3yo Maiden Special going six furlongs. I preferred Unwavering Trust of the two morning line favorites. She'd run the fastest figure on the page when 2nd on debut. As a $750 sales purchase you know the connections had to have high hopes for the daughter of Derby champion Nyquist. Trainer Brad Cox had sent her out for a good local work for this, and for me that gave her the edge over the Bill Mott trained Godolphin home-bred second choice. As I'd watched the pre-race day coverage with Scott Hazelton and hottie Gabby Gaudet (see our connection below!) part of their pre-race program is to list the "Clocker Specials" - horses who the morning clocker notes as most impressive in their works. And he had tabbed Unwavering Trust as one of the two on the day. With the strong betting action and this angle on the horse I'd already tabbed to win, I upped the bet. Pressed the pace while four wide into the lane then drew off in an impressive outing to give me my third winner on the day!
I picked up my first stakes win of the Keeneland Spring meet in the Lafayette, a seven furlong spring for three-year-olds. It's very unusual for a horse to win right back off a maiden score - even more unique to do so in stakes company. And it's typically NOT a good idea to support a last out maiden winner who earned a big Beyer to come right back and win. But despite all these things "going against" Colloquial he was my solid choice. First he'd earned a solid figure on debut when 2nd beaten a nose. That 88 Beyer would win today and it was validated when the show colt came right back to win. Off from that June effort until this past February he had inhaled the field and drawn off by more than a half a dozen lengths while earning a graded stakes-worthy 106 Beyer figure. Was that legitimate? Well the runner-up from that race came right back to score and he got a huge speed figure while drawing off by more than a dozen lengths as the 1/5 favorite. Colloquial broke on top but was hounded from the gate to the 1/8th pole by a 4/1 runner before finally he put that one away and drew off with authority to give me my fourth winner of the day.
Tuesday: Blue Grass Day
The big day finally arrived and it was picture-perfect weather in Lexington for a big Tuesday of racing. Quite unique to have multiple graded stakes run on a Tuesday! And ironically today it was full of rain and thunderstorms locally! I had bets in ten of the eleven races today. Missed on the first three, the opener being a Wesley Ward 2yo that ran second at 6/5. Finally got on the board in the fourth when Irish Aces went wire-to-wire on the turf in a third level allowance. Paid a generous $6.28 allowing me to cash for over $15 and I had cut my losses in half with my initial win.
Missed in a MSW for 3yo's and then it was time for the Grade 2 Appalachian for 3yo's on the grass. When I'd check the scratches for the day, my Best Bet - which was in the Grade 1 Madison later in the card - had scratched. For the Appalachian I liked Mark Casse's Nitrogen who'd won twice for me over the winter. First she'd rallied to win Gulfstream's Ginger Brew in January and then she won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks on Tampa Bay Derby Day where she was my Tampa Best of the Day. With the loss of my "big" bet for the day I upped the bet to a "prime time" "BEST" of the day investment. Sat patiently in fifth on the rail into the far turn. Launched a rally mid-way on the turn circling the leaders. Was six wide turning for home but kicked clear and drew off impressively!
Missed on the next two, both graded stakes. In the Grade 3 Commonwealth I was right in going against the "cheap speed" favorite, and I was correct in my analyzation that the winner would be a finishing runner. What I couldn't have foreseen was that my pick decided to duel with the favorite rather than stalk the speed. Weakened to be 4th. In the Grade 1 Madison I probably should have either passed or just bet the minimum. But I had the "right" one in favorite Emery. I'd have rather jockey Flavian Prat had let the front runner clear early on, then engaged him on the outside. But instead he opted to press the favorite on the inside - where often runners are uncomfortable. Put that one away but had no punch left when the 14/1 upset winner came flying down the middle of the track to clear in the final 100 yards. And that brought us to the Grade 1 Bluegrass with 100 points on the line for a berth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. Much like the upset winner I had in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on Saturday, my choice here was an interesting story. Go back to Holy Bull Day in January. In that initial prep race for the Florida Derby I thought it came down to either Ferocious - who was exiting three straight Grade 1 tries to end his juvenile campaign - two of them resulting in runner-up finishes, or the lightly raced Tappan Street. Ferocious had the lead, then flattened out...passed by Tappan Street but that one was run down by the "buzz horse" Burnham Square who I thought was grossly overrated. A month later in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth I was completely, COMPLETELY against Burnham Square again. He was no where to be found as my horse was caught in the shadow of the wire. Now here we are in Lexington and as I looked at the field initially I was excited to see Todd Pletcher's lightly raced River Thames in the field. He'd been my pick in the Fountain of Youth on the stretch out and I thought after the race that the next time he went long - which I thought would be the Florida Derby - he'd be tough. But as I looked over the past performances it was clear to me he would have LOTS of company on the front end. To me the past looked fast and contested which would set it up for a closer. I landed on, wait for it, BURNHAM SQUARE! I know.....I know. Completely against him and was sure he was overrated. But in here I reasoned....what if - WHAT IF he was as good as advertised in the Holy Bull and have run "OK" in the Fountain of Youth to set him up for today? And with the projected pace flow he'd get the most ideal trip of the bunch. Dead last, D-E-A-D LAST into the turn but the pace was wicked. Suddenly he noticeably accelerated and shot past all but the top three through the turn. Swung some six or more wide into the stretch but had all the momentum. Gaining, but apparently too late approaching the furlong pole, he found another gear....surged and JUST hit the wire in front! Best of all - like Rodriguez in the Wood - he was let go at a juicy 4/1 price. The $10.48 payoff allowed me to cash for over $50 and seal a profitable day! It was a solid start to the spring over the extended four day weekend of racing. Add in the big Florida Gators NCAA Men's Basketball championship on Saturday night in an epic thriller 65-63 and then the Tuesday night 3-1 win by the Florida Panthers over their rival Toronto Maple Leafs and it was a excellent weekend!
Social Media this week........
With Kim being away for a week it was a particularly "lonely" week here for me, but I was so glad to have some social media pals to interact with throughout the week.......
Wednesday morning I woke up to one of my coolest messages ever. My teaching gal-pal Jen - who we all knew as "Cookie" - and I have been in touch thru messaging ever since I retired. And I've promised that she will be my "Track Assistant" the day she retires. She is also one of our biggest followers on Kim and my travels. So I woke up and saw I had a message from Jen and she told me that my world travels had inspired her. This week was her Spring Break and she wanted to take a cruise. Her husband could not get away so at first she dismissed the thought. Then thought better of it, thinking "I really want to go" she told me. Thursday night she looked at it again, booked it, and left on a transatlantic cruise ALL BY HERELF! When she told me this I immediately messaged her back about how cool that was. As we chatted she's had an awful year with several medical issues, but her plan is only two more years in the classroom. I asked for a photo and she quickly sent me one. She's a very cool girl :)
My MOST favorite former student and best gal-pal friend Kimmy and I exchange text messages on a "regular" basis and she nearly always gets back to me when I reach out to her. But I'd gone a month where she had not responded. I was concerned to the point that I reached out to her Mom, Cindy - who's a FB friend - and asked if everything was all right. Never heard back. But when I sent Kimmy our Fla Derby highlights she got back to me which made me feel relieved. A few days later I was looking over our Antarctica photos and it popped into my head about the penguin stuffed animal I'd sent Kimmy's little daughter (after I'd sent her a stuffed Mickey Mouse when she was a new born) so I reached out and asked about Kimmy's kids and if they still played with the animals I'd sent. Pretty quickly she replied, again, making me smile.
I miss so much the weekly Facebook chats former weekend news anchor Karli Barnett used to host and we'd "talk." I still send her pics from our trips and she typically will eventually respond. This week she posted a picture showing her in an Atlanta Braves baseball jersey as she was doing the news with her co-anchor from the ball park. When I reached out to her she replied :)
If you've been following along with my journals and in particular my social media interactions you know that my gal-pal and current CBS-Miami weekend morning anchor Teri has been out since December after needing anchor surgery. But we've stayed in touch and I sent her the Florida Derby pics and videos as she always enjoys following our adventures. She was so sweet last week to ask about how Kim's knees were doing. Later the same day that we'd exchanged Derby messages she posted a question on FB about people using reward credit cards. So I private messaged her and we had a "conversation" about how we use ours. Finally, Teri had told me this week she'd be back on the air and sure enough she was on both Saturday and Sunday......of course I tuned in.
My regular conversations with girl - friend Lauren Pastrana were the most frequent of everyone I was in touch with over the week my pretty wife was gone. After exchanging a couple of messages on Sunday about the Florida Derby, I sent Lauren the first of the week's messages (13 exchanges over the seven days) early Monday after seeing the local CBS-Miami morning team do a story on how Florida is the 6th best state to be in the event of an alien invasion! I immediately wondered, why are we concerned with this - does the gov't know something we should be aware of. Lauren appreciated the heads up. Lauren often posts "reels" to let her "friends" know more about her personal life - which I've told her, makes her so much more believable & trustworthy as a news anchor - and early in the week she noted that she journals every day. Then asked the rhetorical question if anyone else does. So I replied and we exchanged messages about that and about my experience with a couple who kept detailed journals about their wine tastings! I sent her another message after watching the local sports anchor use their new studio for a report on the NCAA basketball tournament, telling Lauren they should let the news team use the new set and utilize all the "toys" and graphics. She replied that this IS the plan soon. Speaking of the basketball tournament, Lauren's alma mater - the Florida Gators - (and my adopted Fla team) had advanced to the national semi-finals so she conned all of her evening news team to sport THEIR college alma mater T-shirts but do the Gator chomp. It was clever. Then she said to post your alma mater in the comments. So I explained I was a big Gator fan but a proud Miami (Oh) alum, and noted it was the REAL Miami. She quickly replied with a laugh that it was the "other" Miami. :) So I sent her the evidence of when the two schools were actually founded and she quickly replied, "Oh, you win!" LOL. Finally, the last "conversation" of the week came Lauren was headed up to do a remote for the national title game in Gainesville, she posted a reel about how she'd emceed a fund raiser and how important this cause was for her. I've always admired how passionate Lauren is about her causes and how frequent she goes out in the community to do her part. And I've told her this. So I commented how brave she was to take a stand like this. She wrote back, and then I replied how much I appreciate her friendship.....got a "heart" for that :)
