Fall 25: Week 2

 Saturday September 6

I was very excited for this Saturday as my 2yo filly Love Like Lucy was making her second start, trying stakes company in the $100K Desert Vixen.  I became even more excited when I received an email on Thursday before the day and was invited to an "Owner's Experience" to be hosted by the CEO of MyRacehorse in the Ten Palms restaurant which offers panoramic views of the track.  It came with a buffet lunch and the opportunity to win some prizes.  I headed out at about 11:30 and arrived just after noon when it all started.  We had tables reserved with excellent views and an individual TV at the table to go with the multiple big-screens around the restaurant.  From the get-go it just was "one of those days" at the races.  And considering the 8-for-15 day last weekend, it "figured" that the numbers would even out.  It made for a long afternoon for me, kind of dampening the afternoon because as I awaited the opener from Gulfstream I was distracted and missed the opener at Kentucky Downs where I had the nearly $7 winner.  I'll take credit for the win for statistic purposes, but not for money purposes.  From noon until when I left at about 5pm I had only twelve races that I bet on.  This was due to several "PASS" races where there wasn't anyone with an advantage, and multiple scratches of my top choice.  Of the twelve I bet on I ran 2nd or 3rd EIGHT times in every way possible.  I was the lone speed and caught nearing the wire....I was the closer flying at the finish, and just missed getting there on time....and I had a few where I wasn't ever in it at all.  The "highlight" of the afternoon at the track came at about 3pm when the MyRacehorse CEO made his final drawing for a giveaway.  He called my number and I won the opportunity to go into the paddock for the saddling of our filly.  It was actually a bit of a let down as nothing happened....the horses walked around, the jockey got on - no interactions and off they went.  Love Like Lucy was up against it I thought.  First, coming off a debut maiden win facing winners, and stakes company would be a challenge.  Second, I was hoping the eventual winner, Lennilu would scratch as she was cross-entered in a $2 Million stakes at Kentucky Downs on Sunday where she was the short-priced 7/5 favorite.  Considering she'd won a stakes here on the grass and ran in a Royal Ascot grass race, why would she run for a $100K purse on the dirt.  But she did.  She had to win a desperate head bob, but the experience paid off.  The photo-finish runner-up also had an experience edge.  Third, while I have high hopes for our filly, her debut wasn't a "WOW" kind of race.  I do think from the way she ran today, and in the debut that she may be better going further.  She's on target for a $200K stakes on October 20th going a furlong further.

Before I headed down to the paddock, because I knew regardless of the outcome I'd be driving home after the Love Like Lucy race, I'd made the next several bets on my Xpressbet account online.  As I was driving home the 10th and final from Colonial was run.  It was the Old Dominion Derby going a mile and an eighth on the turf.  World Beater figured to be a short priced favorite and a decisive winner if running back to his last.  He'd won the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby last time out and now was facing listed rivals.  Tracked the leaders while fourth thru the turn, swung into the clear and handily ran by as much the best.  FINALLY a "real win!"

After missing twice in the final two races at Gulfstream and in the final two races at Kentucky Downs, all I had left were the multiple stakes races at Canterbury Park where it was "Festival of Champions Night."  In R3, the Minnesota Distaff Turf, Cupid's Crush was destined to be a prohibitive favorite.  After drawing off with ease two back at 1/5, she came back on just two weeks rest and left the gate at 1/9 odds, but came up just short.  This was my ONLY concern, especially in what figured to be a short field where upsets are not uncommon.  Still, on paper she figured to be much the best.  I made her the BET of the Day.  She tracked the 25/1 leader into the turn, then took off without being asked and won by a pole.  Her odds went from 3/5 as they entered the gate to 1/9 into the far turn.  Well, nobody ever said in THIS handicapper's corner that it was about the money as much as it's about being right.

After just failing to last in the Minnesota Distaff Sprint, I was the front runner in the Blair's Cove on the turf going a mile.  Unlike the previous race, Frosty View lengthened her margin into the lane and ran away with it as the 6/5 favorite.

Got the final winner of the day in the Northern Lights Juvenile, a six furlong sprint for Minnesota-bred juveniles.  How Bout That Curt was of the two in the field of seven who'd actually won a race.  And to me what set him apart was that he'd defeated OPEN maiden specials.  He pressed the leaders through the turn while pinned on the rail.  Found a small opening and burst thru, then ran off as easily the best.

The photo op of the day when I had high hopes for a successful day of wagering :)

In a somewhat related development.....for several weeks I'd had the idea brewing that I'd like to get "complimentary" Del Mar polo shirts for Brad and I when we head out to San Diego for the Breeders' Cup.  Polos from the track, or the Breeders' Cup for that matter are always overpriced, but the ones from the Del Mar "Silks Gift Shop" were really cool and who cares about the money.  Brad and I exchanged messages about what pair we'd like and settled on two which I then ordered.  Should come, I'm hoping while we are gone on our upcoming trip.

This will probably be the last racing weekend for a while as this coming Thursday Kim and I leave from Fort Lauderdale International on a marathon 22-hour travel day, flying to Hanoi, Vietnam.  There we will meet our good friends Valerie & John whom we met on our Nile River trip.  We will be overseas from September 11 until September 29 meaning it will probably be no racing for me for the next three weekends.  Note in the photo the "dragon" shirt I'm sporting....bought two of them for the trip!  You can follow our adventures HERE.

Social Media this week......

It was a fairly light week for interacting with my social media friends.  Towards the end of the week, one of my best Cypress Bay pals' daughter had a birthday.  Danielle - recently a Mom after marrying a little over a year ago - is a real cutie.  But here's the thing....she's an in-field FBI agent!  And apparently she is quite the agent!  She appreciated my reaching out to her.

I had several exchanges with our realtor in Orlando as our personal friendship continues to grow. I had looked on Zillow for homes that MAYBE might not be on the list Sophia had generated through her real estate search and had found two.  I responded to her updated list and asked if there was something about these two that made them not make our list.  It drove her nuts, she said :) but she figured it out and that led to expanding our search criteria.  Then later in the week we "talked" about when we'd go on another search and she said that she would be crossing her fingers for my filly :)

I reached out to Lauren Pastrana a few times early in the week but didn't get any reply or reaction.  But to be fair, she also apparently didn't even open her account.  When she did she reacted to my comment about her upcoming investigative piece on tattoos and shared that she thought they looked good but she personally did not have one (that was a relief to me!).  And the next day she reacted to my message about my filly running at GP and her doing the late night news in a solo broadcast.

Fall 25: Week 1

 Pacific Classic Weekend
August 30

It was the College Football Kickoff weekend and the start of the Fall Racing Season.  As such, it's typical that I have far less racing as we head towards the Breeders' Cup World Championships, and almost exclusively the selections are on Saturdays.  On this particular Labor Day weekend Saturday I only handicapped the Del Mar card as it was Pacific Classic Day with five graded stakes, three of which were Breeders' Cup Win & You're In events, and I handicapped the Louisiana Downs Louisiana Cup Day card which featured six state-bred stakes.  The racing for me didn't start until late afternoon where the Del Mar opener had a 4:30pm EST post time.  The first from where "the surf meets the turf" was a one mile turf race for older maiden specials.  The only public handicapper left that I've learned to rely on and be able to interpret his analysis is So Cal DRF analyst Brad Free.  He noted about Tempus Volat that would be "hard to beat" I knew that I had the right runner.  Wasn't completely convinced he was the kind of runner I'd want to up the bet on so I only went in for the minimum.  Broke sharply and immediately took command.  Held a clear lead into the lane and held the closers off bravely to win at a nice $7.00 payout.

Passed on Del Mar's 2nd and the La Downs opener, then in R2 in Bosier, La my pick scratched out when the race moved from the turf to the main track.  The third from Louisiana was the first of the six added money events, the Louisiana Cup Sprint.  I anticipated He's Just Lucky to be a short priced favorite and a likely winner.  If he ran back to either of his last two he'd win for fun.  With a career mark of 6-for-14 and a recent bullet move I doubled the bet.  Pressed the early 70/1 front runner to the stretch then drew off handily as much the best.  I thought the $5.40 payoff was generous and was thankful to the "value bettors" who were looking for a better price rather than the winner!

Right back into the winner's circle with Rising Inflation in the Louisiana Cup Distaff.  Scheduled to be run on the turf, I noted that it would be interesting to see how the bettors handled 'Inflation as both her last two Beyers were daylight lengths clear of the rest of the field's best numbers, BUT she'd never run on the turf.  So when the race was moved to the main track, she became my bet.  She tracked the 9/5 front runner into the turn, slid through on the rail and opened up a lead of almost a length turning for home.  But her rival wasn't done and came back, and took the lead.  This almost always the kiss of death for a thoroughbred when headed in the lane, and especially when inside on the rail.  But Rising Inflation would have none of this, re-rallied....stretch duel....and was just in front on the wire carrying my triple investment!  Exciting race - I noted that most racing fans today would be focused on the "big tracks" at Saratoga & Del Mar but there is often quality racing and betting opportunities at the smaller venues as well :)

The Del Mar 4th was a 2yo MSW and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had a MyRacehorse filly in Misstrial.  She'd broken poorly as a short priced favorite on debut and looked pretty strong in here.  I almost upped the bet but there seemed to be a lot of support for a first timer, so I held the bet at $10.  Made a strong bid and then was no match for the top two when third.  Glad I didn't go "all in."  The fifth at La Downs was the Louisiana Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  Initially I listed a price play as my bet despite starting the analysis with Six String.  Next to NEVER do I not talk about my pick first.  My concern with the daughter of champion Star Guitar was that she'd been a short priced favorite in the last SIX starts, yet only produced two wins and all six were shorter races than today's six furlongs.  I noted to "watch the board for clues before making a final decision."  The bettors were all over Six String, not only in the WIN pool but in the multi-race payoffs.  So I not only went with her, but upped the bet.  Right to the front and in hand easily all the way to the wire.  Great decision Mr. Mark!

In the first of the Del Mar graded stakes, the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile I liked Formidable Man.  He'd won four of his last six and I could easily excuse the two losses.  I probably would have been better served to have gone in for another click on the wagering scale, but the fact that he did have a loss - to go with two wins over - one of today's rivals AND that one had Flavian Prat held me back.  Was near the back through a very moderate pace and I was concerned.  Got in the clear, wide through the turn and blew by to win going away.  I KNEW he was best.

Missed in a stakes at LaD and DMR before scoring in a conditioned allowance on the turf at Del mar.  I noted that nearly any handicapping tool would lead you to Vibez and she was my pick.  I hesitated going any deeper than a double investment because she was coming off back-to-back 2nd place finishes and just wasn't so sure she wanted to win.  Fourth along the rail to the turn, split rivals into the clear and set sail for home winning as she pleased.  My SIXTH winner on the day - I'm having a good day!

I made the final four bets and sat down with Kim to watch some TV programming.  In between episodes I pulled up the replay from the finale at LaD where I finished 2nd at 4/5 in the La Cup Juvenile.  Then I watched the Grade 3 Green Flash from Del Mar.  This turf sprint was the first of the three consecutive Breeders' Cup Win & You're In races.  Motorious looked much the best to me.  I knew he was a closer and going an abbreviated five furlongs on the turf that could be problematic.  Of the 104 running lines showing, his last two beat 100 of them.  And two of the competitive numbers were over a year old.  Add in that he was 4/3-1-0 at the distance here at Del Mar and I thought he was a top choice, so I tripled the bet.  As the race unfolded he was not only last but a distant last.  Got going into the turn and fanned some eight wide while flying on the outside.  I don't think he's going to make it I thought and he was JUST short.  But immediately on the replay the INQUIRY sign went up.  In the crowded twelve horse field, Motorious was in post ten.  At the break the #11 horse made an immediate move to get more inside and multiple horses were bothered, especially Motorious who was checked to last.  The inquiry went on for seven minutes before the stewards voted unanimously that the nose loss would have been reversed had he not been bothered at the break.  And so I cashed for over $40!  HORRAY for the stewards :)

The final win of the day came in what was intended to be my BET of the Day.  I really think that Bob Baffert's Nysos could be one of "those" special horses and I was all in on him.  But the morning of the race in a light breeze the Hall of Fame conditioner noted he was slightly favoring his back angle.  Scratch.  I was willing to go with my second choice, Todd Pletcher's Fierceness without hesitation, but not as much of an investment.  In my original analysis I thought the winner almost certainly would be one of the top three choice.  I "tossed" 3yo Journalism who I've NEVER thought was as good as he's made out to be.  Don't get me wrong, he's talented, but just not a "superstar" as he's billed to be.  Especially west coast fans just think he's amazing, which explains why he went off at an absurdly low 2/5 price in this $1 Million Grade 1 Win & You're In event.  My concern with Fierceness was would he run his "A" game?  I thought he was going to run lights out last time in the Gr 1 Whitney and he faded in one of his typical "go figure" efforts.  But if Todd Pletcher & John Velazquez were willing to come to So Cal I figured they must think he's ready to run.  Right out of the gate, TROUBLE.  Fierceness ducked in towards the temporary rail from his #1 post and was behind horses.  He always does his best running on or pressing the lead so this could be a real concern.  But I noted Velazquez seemed to have him comfortable where he was.  Split rivals into the turn and burst to the front quickly opening up almost half a dozen.  Journalism made a big run, got within less than two lengths at the furlong pole, then Fierceness let it out a notch and widened the margin of victory to score emphatically.

For the day I was a big time 8-for-15 (that's over 53% for those of you without a calculator!) and profited over $60!  A great start to the Fall Season.  I ran the numbers on the Spring-Summer season and the results were what I would have guessed.  With rare exception it seemed most weekends I won at a better than average rate, close to 40% most of the time.  But the number of price horses was low and nearly all of the time I had a small loss at the end of the weekend.  And those figures were confirmed with the final five month totals.  I also found it interesting that in 2022 I bet 847 races over this period of time....in 2023 I bet 835....in 2024 it fell off to 736, but to be fair we were on two extended trips.  This summer the total number of bets was only 602.  I believe this reflects what I complain about at Gulfstream over the last two winters, the lack of quality horses, and races.  More than a few times this summer I've remarked on big days at the big summer meets at Saratoga & Del Mar how surprised I am to find restricted mid-to-low level claiming races.  And so I think this explains the much lower number of bets because there aren't as many races where I find a horse with an edge.  I also think that this explains the lower income I get in return because the horse who IS the most likely winner is much more "obvious" to bettors facing weaker rivals.

Social Media this week......

More interactions with my gal-pals than I'd imagined as the week went on, but nearly all of it were "likes" - which I'm "ok" with because TO ME, not having any face-to-face interaction with real people other than my adorable wife, I at least get the "satisfaction" that my friends know I'm out here :)  I reached out to my best gal-pal, Kimmy to ask her opinion on the Orlando 2nd home idea.  I (a) respect her unbiased opinion generally, and (b) know she has worked with financial numbers for years.  She got back to me right away and we did exchange messages that we'd LIKE to FaceTime....maybe someday.

Speaking of the Orlando 2nd home thing, we got a few more listings from our girl Sophia, this week.  I reacted to one in particular and then wrote that as we built our personal friendship and professional relationship I thought perhaps she'd like to know more about me.  I gave her the "Cliff notes" version of my story building the World's Largest Ice Cream Sundae, my football coaching background, and the Cypress Bay graduation where we hosted the Vice President.  Loved her reaction :)

Funny how my "relationship" with Teri, the former CBS Morning anchor goes.  Some weeks she'll message me multiple times per contact.....other times, like this week I get random "likes."  One thing is for sure about the posts Teri puts out - she KNOWS how good looking she is and doesn't mind showing everyone that she is indeed a real beauty.  What I know is that she's a sweet inside as out!

Lauren reacted to multiple messages I sent her this week but we didn't have any "conversations."  I particularly liked several times when I messaged her while she was on the air that I got a response within minutes :)  I found it particularly "interesting" that when she posted on Facebook an adorable pic of herself in red against a green background, and remarked it was "only" 119 days to Christmas, that she reacted to my comment from her personal FB page, because...after all....we ARE FB friends :)

Summer 25: Week 13

 August 22-24

It was "the boy's" birthday weekend, our grandson Oliver.  AND it was Travers Weekend at Saratoga.  It was also Charles Town Classic Night on Friday, and there were multiple restricted stakes at both Woodbine and Monmouth on Sunday.  ALSO.....when Oliver & I went to Wawa on Saturday morning I discovered Pumpkin Spice coffee had returned - whoooo hooooo.  And finally, to top off the big extended weekend of events, on Monday Kim and I met our new Orlando realtor, Sophia, to begin looking at properties with the intention in a year or two of perhaps buying a smaller, second home so we can stay extended periods in Orlando without "moving in" with our kids for the weekend.  Here's how the weekend played out.

Friday we left the house around 10:30am for the 3 1/2 hour drive to Orlando, but before leaving I made several of my wagers for the early part of my Friday selections at Monmouth.  Once we arrived at our son Brad's house we were soon back in the car to pick up the birthday boy at school.  When we returned back to the house I began watching the replays to catch up before finishing the day watching the races play out live.  Got off to a good start, but the first bet and win were "symptomatic" of another weekend where I hit the right win percentages but lost money for the three days because Surf's Up wired the maiden claiming turf sprint as the 6/5 favorite with just the minimum bet, so I only profited six dollars.  As it turned out because the Jersey Shore races were off the turf, I only had one more bet and that was in a race that had been scheduled for the turf - 6th at 5/2.  The first races at Charles Town, which had a 5pm first post, saw odds on runners from out of town take my money.  Suncroft kicked off the evening and was caught nearing the wire at 8/5 but I scored with Lynn's Milky Way who drew off impressively but only went off at 1/5 odds.

I have to say that the rest of the Charles Town races were a disappointment, and particularly so because I usually do well on this evening.  After losing the 4th and 5th races, the latter as the 1-2 favorite, I scored with a triple investment as Entice Me broke her maiden in style.  But like Lynn's Milky Way she was a short priced favorite.  The Last Enchantment Stakes saw my pick Duncan's Idaho hovering around even money from the time the betting opened until they were in the gate.  But at the first call when the chicklets & odds appeared on the screen he had been pounded to 1/5 odds.  Swept by on the turn and drew off as easily best as I made a whopping $2 profit.  The rest of the evening's stakes races saw me produce two dismal 8th place finishes and three second place runs.  The last was most disappointing when odds-on favorite Overnight Pow Wow opened a clear lead in the lane and then was a nose in front on the wire - but the photo showed she was NOT in front at the actual wire and I was second to close out the night.  Finished with 30% wins but with the low wagers that won I lost money.

Saturday, Travers Day was the big birthday party for the grandson as nearly twenty friends & family of he and his parents gathered at the house to celebrate his big number nine.  First post at Saratoga was at 11am so I kept ducking in and out of Brad's office where I had set up my laptop with the live video feeds from Saratoga, Monmouth and Woodbine.  The start of the day followed the same pattern from Friday as I won two of the first five (40%) but the two winners were both minimum bets and paid a paltry $2.20 and $2.40.

The first of the multiple graded stakes at Saratoga was the Grade 2 Lake Placid for 3yo fillies.  I liked May Day Ready a lot.  I thought that several COULD win but she'd proven herself to be talented as a 2yo and she'd had excuses so far this year.  Broke a little slowly, but quickly split rivals and after 200 yards was in front.  Slowed the pace down thru the far turn.  Opened up in the lane and held on comfortably.  The best part was she was NOT the favorite and my triple investment paid for over $40 on her 9/5 final odds.

The eighth at the Spa was a two-turn turf event under entry level allowance conditions.  I thought Gallant Greta fit the ideal profile for this kind of race and had top rider Flavian Prat on board.  Into the far turn she was near the back and then had no where to run unless going very wide - and losing all chance.  Prat showed why he's so gifted as he waiting, found room along the rail on the turn.  A seam opened at the 1/8th pole and he shot through and drew off handily.  Topped off my four wins in a row with the first of the Grade 1 events, the "Breeders' Cup WIN & You're In" Grade 1 Personal Ensign.  I liked 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna.  After an unexplainable flop in the Grade 1 La Toienne on Derby weekend, she'd romped in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill a month ago.  I really didn't think anyone stood a reasonable chance.  Only Dorth Vader had a good enough figure but that had come in the prep for this in a big upset - seemed unlikely to run back to that number.  'Anna made a sweeping move on the turn, opened up in hand turning for home in an apparent cake walk.  Then - here came 'Dorth with a huge run.  Gaining with every stride......PHOTO FINISH.  It was close but I thought I'd hung on - and did, oh-so-narrowly with a big $30 WIN bet on board!

Picked up my third win of the day at Monmouth with the "BEST" of the day on the Jersey Shore.  Sturdy looked like a very likely short-priced winner on paper in this MSW event, except she was already an 8x maiden and had lost at short odds before.  Still, she SHOULD win I thought - and handily so I went "prime time" on her.  Two early scratches and two more at the gate left a short field of four and she was a prohibitive 2/5 favorite as she won by nearly a pole.

I ran 6th in the second of the Gr 1 races at Saratoga as we headed into the final three big events.  The Grade 1 Ballerina was another BC WAYI event for the BC F&M Sprint.  I thought it was open to several runners, but felt that IF Hope Road ran back to her best, she was the winner.  Tracked quick splits just off the leader to the turn, glided past effortlessly and scored by two open lengths.  Went off at a very fair 2/1 price so the minimum play still returned over $15.  The next race was the Grade 1 Forego, another BC WAYI for the BC Dirt Mile.  I've been on board Book'em Danno since the spring and unless he went off form I thought he'd win again.  Tripled the bet.  Paco Lopez was fourth between horses into the turn, split rivals, got into the clear and set sail for the wire, winning by open lengths to sweep the NYRA trio of sprints this spring/summer.

Race 13 was "The BIG ONE" - the Travers for 3yo's.  Derby & Belmont winner Sovereignty would have been a short-priced favorite after his workman-like prep win in the Gr 2 Jim Dandy a month ago.  But the four rivals he faced today were clearly a notch below what he'd faced since winning the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth last winter at Gulfstream Park.  I told Brad I was "ALL IN" with a $50 WIN bet and that the only, ONLY way I thought he'd lose would be if Saratoga lived up to the "Graveyard of Champions" nickname it had earned with so many short priced favorites going down without apparent excuse.  Heading into the far turn it looked like jockey Junior Alvarado was having to work awfully hard to get Sovereignty out of fifth and last place and start running.  But quickly he accelerated and drew off by nearly a pole under a hand ride.  Considering the field and his current ability, the $2.50 payoff was more than fair as my $50 bet cashed for $62.50.  Finished the day a big 9-for-18 with a profit of $60.  The highlight day of the racing weekend.

Sunday I would have had a miserable day except today the Racing Gods were on my side.  I won a race at Woodbine, after two seconds at short odds.  Made the next couple bets and went into the living room to sit down in a comfortable chair.  Apparently too comfortable as when I turned around I saw Zabo jogging back to the winner's circle.  I knew my next bet at Monmouth was within minutes of this 4th race at Woodbine.  Flipped screens and saw my horse finishing fifth.  Opened the "My Wagers" window to check my winnings at Woodbine and it showed I had cashed a ticket in Monmouth's fourth.  Wait.....the bet was in the fifth race right?  Double checked, yes it should have been $10 WIN on #5 in the fifth.  But I'd mistakenly hit $10 WIN in RACE 4 which should have been obvious it was wrong by the name of the horse, but the two names were very similar in spelling and I hit the "BET" button.  Luckily for me La Resoluna ran off with Monmouth's fourth race as a $16.60 winner!  Cashed for over $40 to somewhat salvage the day!

Oliver's birthday party was a big success, he had a great day.  And Sunday our house hunting with our sweet new friend & realtor, Sophia was fabulous as well.  We may be getting that second home as early as next summer!

For the extended three-day weekend I went 42 / 15 - 10 - 5 (36%), but the Friday & Sunday cards wiped out the profit.  Par for the summer.  Immensely enjoyed Saturday's racing - will be looking forward to next weekend's Pacific Classic!

Social Media this week......

Heard from my "most favorite" girls this week, especially in regards to the new house.  Kimmy and I texted both before we went house hunting and then afterwards where my most favorite former asked me to send her pics of the houses we were interested in.  Such a great gal-pal.

My gal-pal Chloe, remember her from the Florida Derby, made another commercial for the auto dealership and again I told her what a star she was - she was appreciative.

I was so happy for former weekend anchor Teri who's finally found a job in her new home of Washington D.C.  She messaged me back when I shared about pumpkin spice coffee and our new home search.

Finally, regular social media pal and "real friend" Lauren Pastrana and I exchanged comments - I was pleased she messaged me regarding our house hunting and her red & white outfit that wasn't that color in "real life" LOL