Spring 2025: Week 4

 April 25 - 26

Closing Day at Keeneland

Opening Night at Churchill Downs

It was a short weekend of racing for me as the Spring Keeneland Meet closed down, and then the spring meet for Churchill Downs kicked off the long Derby week of festivities.  The week also kicked off the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs as our Panthers won two-out-of-three (unfortunately losing the home game Saturday afternoon after taking the first two in Tampa) to start the best-of-seven series.  The only day of the week that I played at Keeneland was the closing day card on Friday.  I had passed the opener and my selection in the 2yo MSW turf sprint scratched out of R2.  As all this was going on I was setting up a new TV in our bedroom as the one in the back bedroom had "died" so we went to Best Buy and got a 55" for less than $300!  I share this because I lost track of time and when I returned to the Sunrise Simulcast Center they were turning for home in R3 and the horse I'd tabbed was closing on the winner but didn't get there in time.  Good thing I missed the bet!  So my first bet came in R5, a second level allowance over the yielding turf - as they'd had a lot of rain in Lexington.  My choice, Deep Satin was the mild 9/5 favorite and closed ground thru the lane, but couldn't get there in time, second.  Passed on the sixth race and ran second again in the seventh, a MSW for 3yo's.  Finished the first three bets with a third in the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes.  Not the way I'd envisioned the day going for sure.  Ohhhhh, but the lesson I'm reminded of often in my racing adventures was about to present itself.  Two races left on the card and for the spring meeting.  In R9 I liked Chad Brown's returning Unmatched Wisdom.  He'd won his first three starts, including the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga then was outrun in two Gr 1 events.  Not seen since the fall he was coming off a layoff.  I considered upping the wager as he was getting a lot of action in all the pools, but Brown's stats less than impressive and then he was interviewed on the broadcast and wasn't all that confident.  He shot out of the gate and immediately was clear.  Challenged turning for home, but found another gear and spurted clear to a daylight win!  At least I'm on the board.

In the finale, a MSW turf route I noted that I always start handicapping a race by finding the favorite and trying to decide if they are vulnerable or not; and if not are they worthy of a wager.  I thought here that the early DRF favorite Tickled Quist was a legitimate choice.  His first three starts on dirt had produced nothing at all.  But when trainer Brad Cox moved the son of Derby champion Nyquist to the grass he responded with a sharp second and improved his best previous Beyer figure by more than a dozen points.  Came back with an even better number when second behind a runner who repeated earlier in this Keeneland meet at a 14/1 price.  I doubled the final bet of the Keeneland spring.  From the get go the crowd paid little attention to him in the betting.  What's up with people?  Burst out of the gate and quickly was clear - never, ever threated as he waltzed home at an ultra generous 7/2 price.  The $2 payoff was a big $9.50 meaning I was cashing for nearly $50!  And suddenly, after an 0-for-3 start I finished with a rush and had a 40% winning day and a nice profit to my bankroll.  The lesson learned, AGAIN - just stick with it, I DO know what I'm doing!

Saturday:  Playoffs & Opening Night

The first race for Opening Night at Churchill Downs was slated for a 5pm post time but the Panthers had a 1pm puck drop.  The pre-game build up and the first ten minutes was why you get season tickets, to be a part of the playoff frenzy as we were all over the Lightning, and scored the opening goal as the crowd went wild.  But the rest of the game we just couldn't buy a goal and were not nearly as intense as we'd been in the first two games.  Disappointing to have an effort like that at home.  Got home about an hour before post time in Louisville so I got to watch the entire card, while also flipping back and forth to watch some of the other playoff games.  I was disappointed I guess would be the right word in my decision, but was "OK" with it.  A few months ago TwinSpires stopped providing me with the bonus that had been promised and so they are no longer worth using when I can get more bonus cash by using Xpressbet year round.  But this weekend they started a week-long money-back promotion that WOULD have allowed me to get my money back on two races.  What ever I guess.  In the opener I ran 2nd as the 8/5 favorite.  Race 2 was the first of the spring's grass races and I liked Mission of Joy.  This was a third level allowance and 'Joy was returning off the bench after racing in stakes races in eleven of her last twelve starts, including a win over this course in the Grade 3 Regret.  I did question the LONG layoff and planned initially to double the bet.  I listed two likely rivals she'd have to beat in my analysis........but when I checked the scratches for the program, (a) BOTH of those rivals scratched out, and (b) my "best" of the evening in the finale also scratched.  For me that made Mission of Joy a "prime time" / BEST Bet of the night.  In the short field of five she tracked between runners at the back through moderate fractions.  Split runners and moved outside at the top of the lane.  At the 1/8th pole she seemed to have too much to do, but found another gear and blew by to WIN!  All the analysts were against the favorite in R4 who was my top pick.  But the crowd was pounding him at the windows.  I debated upping the wager but I re-read my analysis and felt there were indeed too many questions to warrant raising the stakes to earn such a small difference of profit.  Was a late-running, non-threatening second.  Wise decision Mr. Mark.  In the fifth, a "beaten" claimer Carlo Rapido was the lone class dropper, and he was plunging from a $50K claimer to this $20K restricted sprint.  I kept my minimum bet and he came flying, last to first to just, and I mean J-U-S-T be up on the wire.  Off the board with the final three bets.  But finished the weekend with my typical win percentage and a positive ROI!  Can't ask for more than that!

Next week is Derby Week with several "themed" days during the week before Oaks Day on Friday and Kentucky Derby Day Saturday.  The hockey situation will have us going to Game 4 on Monday evening, then we play in Tampa on Wednesday.  If we don't wrap the series that night, Game 6 will be on Friday, Kentucky Oaks Day.  So Kim and I have plans to go out on Saturday to Gulfstream.....have lunch, dress up a bit, and watch a few races while making live bets.

Social Media this week........

Unlike last week where I had very little social interaction with my online pals, this week I had several interations.  My Fla Derby girl Chloe posted a photo of her as part of her work as a Country DJ and she had on the cutest pair of boots, so I told her so and she "appreciated" that.

It's hard to put into words how much I miss my favorite former Kimmy.  Even tho we only got together a couple of times a year, knowing that she was close by and we had a meet-up to look forward to is something I really miss.  Lucky for me she's always said,  "text me any time" and almost always she'll reply to me.  This week I reached out to her twice about the Panthers playoffs - she used to go to games when she lived here locally.  Gave me a BIG smile when I replied to her comment about how busy life is that IF she were local I'd make a good baby-sitter and she wished that as well. :)

The last few times I've reached out to "my Slovakian girl," Petra whom you'll remember we met on our Nile River cruise, she's not responded.  This week we had a nice long conversation (about 30 min, which was oh so very cool) that started when she posted she gorgeous photos from a visit to a small town in Italy.  I just had to post this panoramic one she put out because it's just the essence (in my opinion) of the old-ness of Europe that I enjoy so much with a stunning photo of Petra with her pretty smile.  As you can see below we talked about our upgrading of our pool, wine in Napa Valley and why she'd been off social media....an operation....WHAT?

It's "curious" to me about my CBS-Miami weekend anchor gal-pal Teri in that for weeks and weeks we would exchange multiple comments almost every time I reached out to her.  But over the last several weeks the most I get is a "like" which was again the case this week, and for some reason she was not on the desk this weekend either.  Hmmmm.

And of course the most interactions came with my friend Lauren, though most of the week it was me reaching out and her "liking" or looking at what I sent.  But on Saturday night she posted a fund raiser that she was hosting.  I just happened to see it 14 minutes after she posted.  Because she always heads very worthwhile and meaningful causes, I like to be a good guy and contribute.  So, as you see below, she had a goal of raising $100 and I contributed 1/5 of that right away - the first donation! - and within minutes Lauren wrote to me.  Her heartfelt reply made my week :)

Spring 2025: Week 3

 Keeneland Week 3:  April 18-19

My filly, Seismic Beauty ROMPS In Santa Anita's 6th on Friday

Last week I knew it would happen, but like all things in racing......even when YOU KNOW, you really never know!  I'm talking about how my racing results always balance out to around 35% wins and a near $2.01 ROI.  After last weekend's "so close" series of results with few wins, this weekend I hit far above average to "balance out" the spring average.  I did my handicapping early in the week because our plan was to drive to Orlando to spend an extended weekend with our youngest son Brad and his family.  Can't tell you how wonderful it is to just be with him  (and his family), and I miss having him around all the time.  Of course the highlight of any time spent with his family is our grandson who is eight going on 21 :)  And especially for me, it's "our thing" to go to Wawa in the morning together for coffee and then sit on the porch together.  Friday arrived and I had five selections on the ten race program.  But in one of the races my pick scratched so I was left with only four picks from Keeneland.  Missed in the opener as trainer Wesley Ward continues to struggle.  Then in R2 he sent out 2yo Victoria's Shances and she delivered taking control early and drawing off impressively thru the lane.

That WOULD have been the end of the wins on the day as I missed in a nw2x allowance and ran 3rd in the featured Gr 3 Doubledogdare (won by a 33/1 longshot.....ironically trained by Ward).  But I had one more race to watch and that was when MY horse Seismic Beauty ran in Santa Anita's sixth in an entry level allowance.  When she was offered the description read, ".....This was a filly on our list that we just had to come away with from the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling sale.  She's an imposing filly with plenty of size and scope to her in addition to a deep shoulder and lots of leg that have us thinking of Classic distance races in her future......"  I purchased two shares at a little over $100 each and was excited to hopefully see her win some important dirt route stakes.  I was surprised when she debuted in a sprint - and just missed.  Then even more surprised when she came back in another sprint, and won convincingly.  I thought we were ready to stretch her out for sure, but instead ran in back-to-back entry level sprints, running a just-miss 2nd and an even 3rd.  When the rider was intervied after the last he said he thought she'd be much better around two turns.  YOU THINK?  So today she was going a two-turn mile and I was excited to see just how good she was.  Watching on Jeff & Trista's big screen in the living room she went right to the front and was pressured into the turn before she took off and widened by more than a pole (see banner at top of the page).  Jogged home the final 16th of a mile.  ULTRA-IMPRESSIVE!  And the Beyer she eanred was a whopping 95.  To put that into context, the winner of the Grade 3 Doulbedogdare earlier in the day earned a 96 and last Saturday, 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna earned a 93 winning the Grade 1 Apple Blossom.  OK....let's not get overly excited as the competition today wasn't anywhere as deep as those two events, but still.......and she earned that big figure jogging home!  Very excited to see what the future has to hold for her!

Saturday was spent at Brad's and the big event was that evening (1) the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs were starting, and (2) it was the first night of "Wrestlemania" which Oliver was over the top excited about.  Two of Brad's buddies came over and all the boys watched the entire event with Oliver putting together a scoresheet of all our picks for the winners of the matches and tabulating the points (he & his Dad were tied at the end of the night).  But before all that, I had races from both Keeneland and Oaklawn.  In the first bet of the day, Todd Pletcher's 2nd time starter, Crudo, looked much the best.  He'd been the 4/5 favorite on debut and then completely missed the start.  Today, no problem.  Broke sharply, assumed command and drew off convincingly through the Keeneland stretch.

Over the next hour I had a "PASS" and ran 4th as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite - fortunately I'd thought the horse was only worth a minimum bet.  In R4 from Keeneland, an entry level allowance going a marathon nine & a half furlongs on the turf, I thought Fixin to Bee was a legitimate 8/5 favorite as posted by the early DRF morning line.  She'd been fifth in a turf sprint then was 4th behind a quality runner - Ramsey Pond, who won for me last week - and then broke her maiden over THIS turf course.  Tested the Kentucky Oaks waters by running in the Gr 2 Golden Rod chasing current Oaks prohibitive favorite home, Good Cheer.  Back to the turf when beaten less than five lengths by multiple graded stakes winner Nitrogen in Gulfstream's Ginger Brew Stakes.  Then was fourth behind recent runner-up in the Gr 2 Appalachian, Vixen and Ramsey Pond again in the Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream.  Back to an allowance event on a course she was proven over.  I was watching a video with Brad when I looked over my shoulder and they were spinning out of the turn.  Fixin to Bee split rivals and had multiple lengths to close on the front runner, but found another gear and was JUST up in time.  The best part......with my double investment on board, somehow the crowd not only did NOT make her the favorite but let her go at more than 5/1 odds.  The payout of $12.06 meant I'd be collecting over $60!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO.

The very next race from Keeneland was a 2-lifetime sprint where Top Gun Rocket looked to have a big edge.  Of the combined 82 races run by his rivals ONE figure would beat his LAST SIX Beyers.  In looking back I probably would have been smart to up the wager, but his13/1-5-2 resume was sketchy so I was only in for the minimum.  Mid-pack early, quickly moved to third on the turn and then went to the front as they came out of the turn.  Passed by a 16/1 runner on the outside he came roaring back and drew off handily as the 4/5 favorite.  Three-for-four to start the day!

The 6th at Oaklawn was the Bath House Row Stakes, and it was my first bet of the day from Hot Springs.  In 2017 on our second visit there for the Arkansas Derby Kim and I had visited the "Bath House Row" and enjoyed a spa treatment :)  In the race today I thought Instant Replay was clearly the horse to beat and I made him a "prime time" bet.  The colt had earned Beyers of 76 and 75 in his first two starts as a 2yo and those compared favorably with the recent figures of his rivals.  But in his last two starts as a now 3yo he earned a 92 and 95.  Those would win by daylight here.  Tracked from well off the pace then rallied five wide into the lane.  With a furlong left he looked to be running evenly and was dead in the water.  But at the 16th pole he found another gear, accelerated and flew home to be JUST up in time!  Four-for-five on the day!!!!

Less than ten minutes after Instant Replay crossed the finish line in Hot Springs they were lining up in the gate at Keeneland for Race 7, a conditioned allowance going five and a half furlongs on the turf.  The conditions restricted runners who'd won recently, but Pipsy looked like a legitimate favorite to me.  She had won two of three in her native Ireland and had raced in four stakes, three of them graded here in the US.  Toss the two-turn experiment of the Tepin at Churchill and you were left with three sharp tries, including a win off the layoff - like today - in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly in New York.  I thought she'd be close to the front under Joel Rosario and sure enough, after breaking sharply she settled just off the 12/1 outsider who was determined to get the lead.  Collared that one at the furlong pole and drew off to a daylight score at a generous 5/2 price allowing me to cash for over $35 on my fifth win from six selections.  Oh my I'm having a good day.

The eighth at Keeneland was another "prime time" investment for me on Just A Touch in a second level allowance event going the extended nine furlongs on the main track.  This 4yo had kicked off the year with a runaway score over lesser with a huge 102 Beyer.  And as a 3yo he had earned a similar big figure when getting a 96 for running second in the Grade 1 Blue Grass here.  Pressed a longshot leader to the turn, took the lead while not being asked for his best.  As the stalkers and closers began to move in approaching the top of the lane he was let out a notch and drew off convincingly for my SIXTH WIN in seven selections on the day.  I thought at the time that even if I didn't win another race today it was a great day.  Unfortunately it finished that way as I did indeed miss on the next six.  Still it was a profitable day and when added to the Friday totals the weekend played out like this:

18 / 8 - 1 - 2    WIN: 44.4%    ROI:  $2.56

Next week - Churchill Downs Opening Night & Derby Week begins!

Seismic Beauty Replay

Social Media this week.....

Didn't "need" a lot of social interaction online this week since we spent from Wednesday to Sunday morning with our youngest son Brad, his wife Lauren, and our grandson Oliver.  And had the nice evening on Friday with Jeff, his wife Trista, and our daughter Julie.  But still had some interactions.  During the week, on Facebook I got an alert that it was the seven-year anniversary of my friendship with sweet gal-pal Chloe, daughter of my great friend, former asst. principal Jeff Nelson.  And she replied back.

On Sunday my gal-pal Nancy who my niece Khloe and I met on our Christmas Markets cruise (along with Nancy's friend Amy) reached out to me wishing me a Happy Easter and asked how November would be for a visit from the two of them.  We'd talked about this previously but wasn't sure if she was actually serious about it.  On Monday Khloe chipped in that she would come down for the reunion.

My long time best former, Amanda reached out on Friday, sending me a photo and asked did I know where she was.  Well, duh, at my old stomping grounds at Cypress Bay where here oldest was having his first wrestling match.

Finally, had some interactions, as is always the case with gal-pal Lauren Pastrana.  Felt like, during the week that we were not nearly as active in our exchanges, but in looking back we had five interactions :)  The two "conversations" were about her cute outfit and I expressed "concern" about her being cold - as she's talked about how cold the studio is - and when she and I chatted about travel plans.

Spring 2025: Week 2

 April 11 - 12

Week 2 of the spring racing season featured the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile on Friday from Keeneland and the Grade 1 Apple Blossom from Oaklawn Park.  As I await the opening of Monmouth (and Woodbine, which I may play during the summer) I'm selective about the dates I handicap.  The Friday card was enticing with two stakes races being offered.  I was a little leery about my pick in the opener because Wesley Ward always is THE dominant 2yo trainer at the spring Keeneland meet, but heading into the Monday card I'd already seen one of his 2yo's go down in flames and his overall record through the first week was a paltry 1-for-10.  Still I noted that I'd watch the board to see which of the two juveniles he had entered would take the most money and that IF one scratched I'd up the bet on the one left in the field.  Sure enough, at post time only Gorrono Ranch was running.  Sent off as the 1-2 favorite the filly pressed the 6/1 third choice and was no match thru the lane finishing 2nd.  I had a pick in the third and Papa Yo was leading down the backstretch when the outrider came rushing up to alert the riders to pull up as a jockey spill at the start had left the rider still needing attention - the race was declared a no contest and everyone got their money back.  The fifth was one of the best stories of the weekend.  It was a 3yo entry level allowance on the turf and the first thing that caught my eye was that the DRF analyst did NOT even list my top choice Ramsey Pond in his recommendations.  See what I wrote.......

I continued to be surprised when the FanDuel TV analysts also pretty much ignored my choice as they discussed their thoughts on the race.  The filly broke alertly from the rail but as she settled into stride she gradually found herself galloping along near the back of the pack.  Into the turn she began to move forward and I thought she had a chance, but then she was shut off and had to steady.  Swung to the outside and was F-L-Y-I-N-G.   When she got clear I was certain it was too late, but the field was no match for her late rally and she was clear by more than a length under the wire.  And the best part - I'd been so confident AND was not dissuaded by everyone else's opinions and had stuck to my triple investment which netted me over $50 when she paid a generous $7.80 to win.  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

No bet in the 6th led us to the co-featured Limestone Stakes, a turf sprint for 3yo fillies.  Several years ago Keith and I were at one of the big races at Gulfstream and an older couple sat behind us that we talked to all day.  They were horse owners and said they often came to the big races here at Gulfstream.  We'd seen them several times in the years since, and on Florida Derby Day this year we chatted with the gentleman.  I asked if he had any good 3yo's and he said they had a promising filly that had won in a turf sprint on debut and then won a stakes at Kentucky Downs.  Their filly, named Kilwin was slated to start in this same Limestone he said.  I looked at her and she looked like a legitimate longshot at 8/1 in the program.  Bet down to 2/1 she just ran evenly, finishing 6th.  Was a non-threatening fourth in a MSW in the 8th before it was time for my BET of the Day in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile.  I'd seen Carl Spackler break his maiden at Gulfstream two years ago in what turned out to be a KEY race.  And he'd gone on to win multiple graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Turf Mile here last fall.  The only question for me was the layoff.  Tracked in fourth while well in hand to the turn.  Glided up effortlessly on the outside to seize command and was cut loose.  Quickly drew off by a half a dozen and won going away.  I was delighted I'd made him the "best" of the day but wished I'd gone with my instinct to up the wager even more prior to the race.  Still - it was a winning day with two great success stories!

Saturday - Apple Blossom Day

As a follow-up to last Saturday & Tuesday's stakes wins, and adding on the good day on Friday I had high hopes for Saturday where I was playing the Oaklawn card, featuring several stakes including the Grade 1 Apple Blossom; the Keeneland card with the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, and the Laurel card which had four stakes events.  As I'd gone through the three cards I noted how very many "PASS" races I had where the quality of the race was poor and no one held any kind of advantage in my opinion.  The first 90 minutes of racing saw me skip over four races and run third with the first bet from Laurel.  Got on the board with Cape Trafalgar in Keeneland's second, an open $40K claiming sprint.  It was a legitimate question/concern, I thought, if trainer Saffie Joesph was dropping the runner in for a first time tag for the win or to be claimed away.  My guess was both.  Off just a beat slowly he moved up gradually to the front by the time they'd finished the opening quarter and never looked back.  I was pleasantly surprised that from the early betting he went from odds-on to 4/5 and at post time was a nice 6/5 price enabling me to collect over $20 on the first winner of the day.  Over the next two hours and eight races I found every which way to NOT win as I had four runner-up finishes to go with three third place finishes.  Finally got back into the win column with the last of the four stakes at Laurel when Worcester drew off impressively through the lane.  Helped the bottom line a little that he paid over $6 to win and I'd doubled the bet.

Ran second and third in the next two bets and then it was time to head off to the Florida Panthers game.  I was not encouraged when during the day I read that we were going to be without SIX of our starters as we played the Buffalo Sabres.  But the team stepped up and we held a 2-1 lead mid-way through the third period when the officials deemed that a scrum near the Buffalo bench warranted one minor penalty on the Sabres' player and a DOUBLE minor on our player....AND another penalty on another of our guys to give our opponents a huge 5-on-3 advantage on the power play.  We played great defense and the crowd roared as we sent to puck the length of the ice multiple times, but with only four seconds left on the power play they got one home to tie the score.  It was exciting - as always - to watch the 3-on-3 overtime period which ended scoreless so we went to a shoot-out.  Our guy scored and the next five came up empty to give us the WIN!  Exciting times.  Got home around 9:30 and watched the replays of last six selections I'd made bets on, four of which were stakes.  Of the first five I cased one ticket when Booth went right to the front in the Grade 3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn and was hounded immediately.  He and his rival laid it down the entire six furlongs of the race until he edged clear in the final fifty yards.  Good to get a win but did little to help win back my losses as he was a prohibitive favorite.

The race of the day, even though Keeneland had also carded the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley (where my horse had all kinds of traffic issues, changed paths multiple times in the stretch and STILL just missed when second), in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom featuring 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna.  Truly if you were looking to beat her the only hope you had was that her win in the Azeri a month ago - which was impressive, but had not been as dazzling as her best - MIGHT be an indication that she was just a click below her best.  I, instead, thought she'd be even stronger today.  I can't say with any certainty, but I think had I been at the track or watching live I would have gone all in with a $50 wager.  But knowing I would only be watching the replay and wouldn't be following how the wagering was going I stuck with my "Prime Time PLUS" bet of $30 to win.  Off a step slowly 'Anna stalked the leader today.  Took over on the turn without taking a deep breath and ran away while clearly in hand.

The good news about the weekend was that I hit BOTH big Grade 1 BEST BETS and had a nice upset winner on Friday, but the story of the day Saturday was that of the 19 selections I wagered on I was in the money FIFTEEN times, but only four winning tickets.  Gotta love the highs and lows of the racing game.  Next week, while only two weeks out from the Kentucky Derby I'll play a smaller number of races at Keeneland and Laurel as we visit our youngest son Brad and his family in Orlando.  AND on Saturday of next week the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin.  Was exciting to run all the way through and win the Stanley Cup last year, excited for the ride this year!

Social Media this week......

While watching the races on Saturday the co-hosts of the Keeneland program, hottie handicapper Gabby Gaudet and her side-kick Scott Hazelton bantered back and forth.  I first "met" Gabby when she was the on-air analyst at Laurel - where her sister is a trainer.  Followed her career as she moved to the "big time" at Gulfstream where she met and married trainer Mark Casse's son Norm, who now is an excellent trainer in his own right.  Over the years we've exchanged a few messages, so I sent her a message and she very quickly "liked" my message.

Lauren Pastrana and I had several exchanges again this week, ten to be exact over the seven days of the week, but only a couple of "conversations" :)  Not nearly as "needy" of interaction this week with my sweet wife being home :)