Spring 2025: Week 4

 April 25 - 26

Closing Day at Keeneland

Opening Night at Churchill Downs

It was a short weekend of racing for me as the Spring Keeneland Meet closed down, and then the spring meet for Churchill Downs kicked off the long Derby week of festivities.  The week also kicked off the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs as our Panthers won two-out-of-three (unfortunately losing the home game Saturday afternoon after taking the first two in Tampa) to start the best-of-seven series.  The only day of the week that I played at Keeneland was the closing day card on Friday.  I had passed the opener and my selection in the 2yo MSW turf sprint scratched out of R2.  As all this was going on I was setting up a new TV in our bedroom as the one in the back bedroom had "died" so we went to Best Buy and got a 55" for less than $300!  I share this because I lost track of time and when I returned to the Sunrise Simulcast Center they were turning for home in R3 and the horse I'd tabbed was closing on the winner but didn't get there in time.  Good thing I missed the bet!  So my first bet came in R5, a second level allowance over the yielding turf - as they'd had a lot of rain in Lexington.  My choice, Deep Satin was the mild 9/5 favorite and closed ground thru the lane, but couldn't get there in time, second.  Passed on the sixth race and ran second again in the seventh, a MSW for 3yo's.  Finished the first three bets with a third in the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes.  Not the way I'd envisioned the day going for sure.  Ohhhhh, but the lesson I'm reminded of often in my racing adventures was about to present itself.  Two races left on the card and for the spring meeting.  In R9 I liked Chad Brown's returning Unmatched Wisdom.  He'd won his first three starts, including the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga then was outrun in two Gr 1 events.  Not seen since the fall he was coming off a layoff.  I considered upping the wager as he was getting a lot of action in all the pools, but Brown's stats less than impressive and then he was interviewed on the broadcast and wasn't all that confident.  He shot out of the gate and immediately was clear.  Challenged turning for home, but found another gear and spurted clear to a daylight win!  At least I'm on the board.

In the finale, a MSW turf route I noted that I always start handicapping a race by finding the favorite and trying to decide if they are vulnerable or not; and if not are they worthy of a wager.  I thought here that the early DRF favorite Tickled Quist was a legitimate choice.  His first three starts on dirt had produced nothing at all.  But when trainer Brad Cox moved the son of Derby champion Nyquist to the grass he responded with a sharp second and improved his best previous Beyer figure by more than a dozen points.  Came back with an even better number when second behind a runner who repeated earlier in this Keeneland meet at a 14/1 price.  I doubled the final bet of the Keeneland spring.  From the get go the crowd paid little attention to him in the betting.  What's up with people?  Burst out of the gate and quickly was clear - never, ever threated as he waltzed home at an ultra generous 7/2 price.  The $2 payoff was a big $9.50 meaning I was cashing for nearly $50!  And suddenly, after an 0-for-3 start I finished with a rush and had a 40% winning day and a nice profit to my bankroll.  The lesson learned, AGAIN - just stick with it, I DO know what I'm doing!

Saturday:  Playoffs & Opening Night

The first race for Opening Night at Churchill Downs was slated for a 5pm post time but the Panthers had a 1pm puck drop.  The pre-game build up and the first ten minutes was why you get season tickets, to be a part of the playoff frenzy as we were all over the Lightning, and scored the opening goal as the crowd went wild.  But the rest of the game we just couldn't buy a goal and were not nearly as intense as we'd been in the first two games.  Disappointing to have an effort like that at home.  Got home about an hour before post time in Louisville so I got to watch the entire card, while also flipping back and forth to watch some of the other playoff games.  I was disappointed I guess would be the right word in my decision, but was "OK" with it.  A few months ago TwinSpires stopped providing me with the bonus that had been promised and so they are no longer worth using when I can get more bonus cash by using Xpressbet year round.  But this weekend they started a week-long money-back promotion that WOULD have allowed me to get my money back on two races.  What ever I guess.  In the opener I ran 2nd as the 8/5 favorite.  Race 2 was the first of the spring's grass races and I liked Mission of Joy.  This was a third level allowance and 'Joy was returning off the bench after racing in stakes races in eleven of her last twelve starts, including a win over this course in the Grade 3 Regret.  I did question the LONG layoff and planned initially to double the bet.  I listed two likely rivals she'd have to beat in my analysis........but when I checked the scratches for the program, (a) BOTH of those rivals scratched out, and (b) my "best" of the evening in the finale also scratched.  For me that made Mission of Joy a "prime time" / BEST Bet of the night.  In the short field of five she tracked between runners at the back through moderate fractions.  Split runners and moved outside at the top of the lane.  At the 1/8th pole she seemed to have too much to do, but found another gear and blew by to WIN!  All the analysts were against the favorite in R4 who was my top pick.  But the crowd was pounding him at the windows.  I debated upping the wager but I re-read my analysis and felt there were indeed too many questions to warrant raising the stakes to earn such a small difference of profit.  Was a late-running, non-threatening second.  Wise decision Mr. Mark.  In the fifth, a "beaten" claimer Carlo Rapido was the lone class dropper, and he was plunging from a $50K claimer to this $20K restricted sprint.  I kept my minimum bet and he came flying, last to first to just, and I mean J-U-S-T be up on the wire.  Off the board with the final three bets.  But finished the weekend with my typical win percentage and a positive ROI!  Can't ask for more than that!

Next week is Derby Week with several "themed" days during the week before Oaks Day on Friday and Kentucky Derby Day Saturday.  The hockey situation will have us going to Game 4 on Monday evening, then we play in Tampa on Wednesday.  If we don't wrap the series that night, Game 6 will be on Friday, Kentucky Oaks Day.  So Kim and I have plans to go out on Saturday to Gulfstream.....have lunch, dress up a bit, and watch a few races while making live bets.

Social Media this week........

Unlike last week where I had very little social interaction with my online pals, this week I had several interations.  My Fla Derby girl Chloe posted a photo of her as part of her work as a Country DJ and she had on the cutest pair of boots, so I told her so and she "appreciated" that.

It's hard to put into words how much I miss my favorite former Kimmy.  Even tho we only got together a couple of times a year, knowing that she was close by and we had a meet-up to look forward to is something I really miss.  Lucky for me she's always said,  "text me any time" and almost always she'll reply to me.  This week I reached out to her twice about the Panthers playoffs - she used to go to games when she lived here locally.  Gave me a BIG smile when I replied to her comment about how busy life is that IF she were local I'd make a good baby-sitter and she wished that as well. :)

The last few times I've reached out to "my Slovakian girl," Petra whom you'll remember we met on our Nile River cruise, she's not responded.  This week we had a nice long conversation (about 30 min, which was oh so very cool) that started when she posted she gorgeous photos from a visit to a small town in Italy.  I just had to post this panoramic one she put out because it's just the essence (in my opinion) of the old-ness of Europe that I enjoy so much with a stunning photo of Petra with her pretty smile.  As you can see below we talked about our upgrading of our pool, wine in Napa Valley and why she'd been off social media....an operation....WHAT?

It's "curious" to me about my CBS-Miami weekend anchor gal-pal Teri in that for weeks and weeks we would exchange multiple comments almost every time I reached out to her.  But over the last several weeks the most I get is a "like" which was again the case this week, and for some reason she was not on the desk this weekend either.  Hmmmm.

And of course the most interactions came with my friend Lauren, though most of the week it was me reaching out and her "liking" or looking at what I sent.  But on Saturday night she posted a fund raiser that she was hosting.  I just happened to see it 14 minutes after she posted.  Because she always heads very worthwhile and meaningful causes, I like to be a good guy and contribute.  So, as you see below, she had a goal of raising $100 and I contributed 1/5 of that right away - the first donation! - and within minutes Lauren wrote to me.  Her heartfelt reply made my week :)