Spring 2025: Week 7

 Preakness Weekend

Following the amazing Derby weekend two weeks ago, it would be unrealistic to believe I could have another such amazing run.  But with the way the spring is going I was expecting to have another successful weekend.  And as I near the end of the first two months of the Spring-Summer Racing Season I really think one of the keys to my success to date has been my willingness to be very selective with my races that I bet on.  And to be fair, I've also had a good share of price play winners.  So here's how the weekend played out.

Friday:  Black-Eyed Susan Day

The late morning first race brought me the first of three winners on Friday.  I'd had Brad Cox's Verifire in his debut on the Virginia Derby weekend undercard when he was a flashy winner earning a stakes worth Beyer figure of 92.  Even a regression of several lengths would still put him in the winner's circle today.  But first of a maiden win, at Colonial no less, I planned on a minimum play.  But he was not only being pounded on the board but the analysts were saying he might be the shortest price and most likely winner of the weekend.  So I doubled the bet.  Broke on top, rated kindly and when the other thought they had a chance at the top of the lane he let out a notch and drew off by more than half a dozen without being asked.  Very talented.

Races 2-3-4 and 6 were all "PASS" races for me, but I was patient.  And in Race 5 I was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite, only to run 2nd; then in R7 I was the 4/5 favorite and was second again.  Not the kind of day I had hoped for.....at this point.  Next up was the Allaire DuPont Stakes going nine furlongs for older fillies and mares.  Clearly Todd Pletcher's Candied was the class of the field.  Since her debut win she'd run nine times, eight of them in graded events.  The lone listed stakes was last summer's Lady's Secret and she was a runaway winner.  If you bought in that she was just a cut below the best graded runners, then her resume looked a lot better.  That was my view and I made her the "best" of the Friday picks with a triple investment.  Tracked along the rail in third to the top of the lane, swung into the clear and ran off very impressively.  Cashed for almost $40.

When I wrote my analysis for R9, the Hilltop Stakes for 3yo on the turf, I thought that Play With Fire could be the "Day Maker" bet of the day.  Listed at 6/1 in the program I was hopeful to get maybe 5/1.  You had to be a bit creative interpreting his past performances, but I thought he was a lot better than he looked on paper under Flavian Prat for trainer Brendon Walsh.  Last into the far turn he unleashed a furious rally and just blew by the stunned field to win going away in dramatic fashion.  Got late money to go off at 7/2 odds, but still cashed for $45 sealing a winning day.  The last three bets, all stakes, were all wide open and I bet the minimum - two fourth place finishes and a 3rd.  37% wins on the day and a clear profit, I'm ok with that!  Patience rewarded!!!

Saturday:  Preakness 150 Day

Preakness Saturday began an hour earlier that the Friday card, and it wasn't until about ten minutes before the first race that I realized that.  Missed at 7/2 when fourth.  No bet in the second, but in R3 it was very similar to Friday's opener.  Bob Baffert's lightly raced Varney was stretching out to two turns for the first time with two Beyer figures that said he should be the easiest of winners, IF he could get the added ground.  Flavian Prat took him right to the front, controlled his speed nicely and let him set sail for home in the lane as he drew off impressively.

Came right back in the fourth which was the first graded stakes, the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint where I liked Steve Asmussen's Booth.  Much like yesterday's Verifire race the analysts all said he could the the shortest priced stakes winner of the weekend based on his three race winning streak, including back to back Gr 3 wins like this making him the ONLY graded winner in the line-up.  My concern was I'd had him in his last as the 2/5 favorite at Oaklawn.  And he'd had to fight the entire length of the stretch to get the win, and his Beyer dropped.  Was he starting to regress or would he improve off having to fight for one?  I liked him enough to double the bet.  Took command immediately and was well handled by the trainer's son to the top of the lane where he cut loose and drew off in an impressive final time.

I had also handicapped the Saturday card on the Jersey Shore and it presented very few runners that I thought were worth the gamble.  In fact on the nine race card I had but three bets.  Two of them won for me sandwiching three stakes losses at Pimlico.  Persistent Danger was a surging winner at the wire paying a generous $6.40, and then Layered was a runaway winner paying an even better $6.80.

The 9th at Pimlico was the Jim McKay Turf Sprint going a short five furlongs on the turf.  Witty had run second in this spot last year as a dead closer at 7/2 odds and for some reason was listed at 10/1 in the program.  He'd used the same prep race as last year, and ran 2nd like last year again this year in the prep.  Last by more than ten into the turn he came flying through the field to the top of the lane, got into the clear and ran by them all like they were tied to the rail.  Cashed for almost $20 on the minimum bet.

Brad and Oliver were visiting over the weekend thru Sat evening and he'd asked me if I had a "BET of the Day" on the Preakness card.  I told him that all the really good horses had run two weeks ago, so no, but the "best" today was in the 11th, the JW Murphy on the turf for 3yo's with Regan's Wit.  So put a small wager down.  After the Witty win I ran 3rd twice at odds on leading up to the Murphy.  Regan's Wit was indeed best as he blew by to win going away as easily best :)

I topped off the Saturday by naming the upset winner of the Grade 3 Dinner Party in Shug McGaughey's Fort Washington.  Much like Witty, he came from well off of it and ran off impressively paying $12 for a $2 wager.  The Preakness was one of the most dramatic races I've seen as the favorite had all kinds of trouble in the stretch and then ran down the loose on the lead front runner who seemed long gone.  Impressive.

Sunday at the Jersey Shore

Much like the Saturday program at Monmouth it was hard to find any horses worth betting on.  At the end of the day I did find three on the nine race card.  After running third at 8/5 in the first of the three wagers, I scored in the Sunday feature, the JJ Reily Handicap for New-Jersey breds.  While you could make a case for several in this sprint, especially off recent form, I thought it was really hard to look past the past performances of Speaking.  He showed five NJ-bred races, all stakes.  Easy to toss the lone turf sprint experiment.  The other four....two wins in the NJ Breeders here - a six furlong handicap.  And wins in the 2023 and 2024 JJ Reily.  OH.  Somehow the crowd let him go off at better than 5/2 odds - what were they thinking?  Right the front and never in doubt.  Ran second in the final bet of the day but another day of clear profits!

This Weekend's Totals
25 / 11 - 3 - 5    WIN: 44%    -$205/+$263    ROI: $2.56

Panthers Playoffs:  This week we were working our way through the second round of the playoffs.  After rallying from an 0-2 deficit with back-to-back wins last weekend the series shifted to Toronto for a pivotal Game 5.  A win in Toronto would send the series back here for a Friday game that could wrap the series.  Unlike the first four games we just blasted them out of the rink 6-1 sending their fans into a "boo-bird" frenzy, throwing jerseys on the ice, and leaving early in what the Toronto media called one of the worst losses in Maple Leafs history.  So excited for Game 6 at home to wrap it up with a big celebration.  Brad brought Oliver down - left school after a half day and we all were in the front row of Section 317 to enjoy the celebratory win.....

Only Toronto played well and we didn't have the same push.  Lost 0-2 and now the game would be decided in a winner-take-all decisive Game 7.  We were anxious for sure, but I've said from about mid-season on that we are REALLY good and while any of the good teams in the NHL might beat us on any given night, I honestly didn't think anyone had a good chance in a best-of-seven series.  I also thought it worked against the Maple Leafs that they were under the intense scrutiny of the home town fans and media.  They had to feel the pressure.  Our guys, to a man, talked before the game about "enjoying the opportunity....something every kid hockey player dreams of, to play in a playoff Game 7."  We came out on fire but didn't score.  They responded and our goalie BOBBY made miraculous saves.  0-0 after one.  And then the roof caved in on them as we rattled off three straight and the boo-birds were out again.  Early in the third they scored, the crowd came alive and we have a ball game!  For 45 seconds....we quickly scored again and put them away with two more goals for a decisive 6-1 victory!  The Eastern Conference Finals kick off Tuesday in Carolina.

Social Media this week.....

Teri Hornstein was out in the rain early in the week and I felt badly for her.....wished for her to be on the desk and she replied to the same.  And then later in the week she enjoyed the photo of me with former student at the Panthers game and she told me she was 36 years old, which I'd never have guessed.

I knew Lauren Pastrana wouldn't see it on Mother's Day but I sent her a virtual card anyway and when she did see it she thanked me.  She did a "Walk & Talk" with the subject being to "share your gifts" with others and I chipped in saying what I do "best" is I'm the trip planner.  I also shared how I had gotten a free re-order of flowers for Kim after hers seemed "aged" for the holiday.  Lauren gave me a local florist she uses.  Thursday she & Elliot were in the new "News-Verse" studio and I asked about the standing vs. being at the desk and how the graphics worked.  She replied right back that she likes the standing and that their iPads are only their scripts.  Finally, the best exchange was when Lauren reacted to my game photo with Kim, Brad & Oliver and then she reached out to me to help her by "liking" and commenting on a CBS-Miami post about the evening team.  She expressed her appreciation for how I am also so supportive of her.  And when I did post she was again very appreciative.