Summer 25: Week 1

 Penn Mile Weekend - NOT

Friday at Penn National was their signature "Penn Mile" card and it's the only day of the year that I play the races there as they have multiple turf stakes, featuring the Penn Oaks and the Grade 3 Penn Mile.  As they were heading to the post for R2 it was announced that because of the weather ALL of the turf stakes for the evening's card were cancelled and postponed to Friday June 20.  Disappointing.  But Saturday was a big day at Churchill Downs featuring multiple stakes races on the Stephen Foster Preview card.  The day started off as I continued my recent roll as six of the first nine handicapping selections I made won.  But from that point in the day, about 3pm, until the end of the races for me, about 6pm, I had only one more winner.  I have to say that at some point I knew that my near 50% wins had to slow down.  But I don't think there were many handicappers who had good days on Saturday.  Here were just a sampling of the winning prices vs. the price of my picks:

6/5 - $20.40 / 8/5 - $16.70 / 4/5 - $68.44 / 6/5 - $25.20 / 2/1 - $28.78 / 5/2 - $143.30 / 3/1 - $28.60

As you can see, I was on the "right" horse from handicapping logic, but the upsets were on!  To be perfectly transparent there were five races on the day - including both of the day's BEST at Churchill that scratched out and I made five "fun bets" that I won't count against my handicapping since they were not my handicapping selections.  You may not think that's right....but it's my journal, they are my records and that's how I keep them :)  The first race on my sheet was a nine furlong maiden special weight on the main track at Churchill Downs.  Bill Mott was stretching out Excite in his second dirt try with Irad Ortiz up.  Mott had another runner initially but that one (who I also liked) scratched out.  Excite pressed the co-favorite into the far turn, then readily took over and drew off impressively through the stretch.

After dropping the opener on the Jersey Shore, the second race was a cheap $5K with conditions that read, "have not won two races since November 30th."  On paper Magical Warrior looked very tough, even in a cheap spot like this as he dropped out of an OPEN $8K where he was 2nd beaten less than a length, and he looked loose on the lead.  Dueled to the far turn, edged clear and when confronted by the closers into the lane responded and drew off in hand.

I played the Woodbine card and won the only race of the six I bet on when Fighter In The Wind scored as the 6/5 favorite.  Missed the next two before we were headed into the gate for Race 4 at Churchill.  It was a MSW going seven furlongs and I started my analysis by noting that it would be a "post time decision" who I liked.  There was a Brad Cox firster that I liked, but Bill Mott was sending out Kapoor for his third try after back-to-back show finishes.  He had strong 73 "paired" figures and was fastest on paper.  As the wagering opened and I listened to the analysis from the FanDuel "experts" I switched to the experienced Mott runner.  Broke like a shot and quickly was daylight clear.  Never looked back and drew off impressively at 6/5.  Came right back in the fifth at Churchill when Clicquot drew off at a healthy 2/1 price to give me my fifth winner.  And I made it a trifecta of three straight winners when English Painter drew off as the prohibitive favorite at Monmouth as the "best" of the day on the Jersey Shore for me.

That was that as I lost the next four (three as short priced favorites).  Got the 6/1 upset winner of Churchill's Audubon Stakes on the turf with World Beater who was flying down the lane to be JUST up in time.  And with that win and five graded events of the next eight selections I thought I was about to take off for another winning day.  But instead I had ONE second and two thirds to show for those eight races.  Sigh.....not good.

Sunday I had only the Monmouth card but I was watching the FanDuel telecast.  And early on in the program they talked about how in Race 7 it was an "interesting" situation as Brad Cox's Most Wanted had scratched out of Saturday's Grade 3 Blame Stakes going two turns at nine furlongs to run in this fourth level one-turn mile allowance.  That was of particular interest to me because he had been one of my "BEST Bets" of the Day in the Blame.  With this field I believed that he'd be a decisive winner so I added him to my selection sheet.  Passed the Jersey Shore opener and in R2 it was the first juvenile tilt of the season.  All firsters and I had a "post time decision" on my hands.  The field of seven had six with trainers that were a combined 3-for-45 with debut runners but Dee's On Dow came from a 21% first time starter barn.  BUT the rider was 1-for-16 at the meet and Paco was on the other top choice - but his barn was 0-for-7 with starters.  What to do.  Initially the Paco runner was well bet, but the more I looked at it the more I was convinced to go with the trainer numbers, and I did.  'Dee proved easily, EASILY best!

Ran fifth, followed by back-to-back 2nd place finishes - the latter of which saw Paco beat my choice in the stakes race feature and pay an unbelievable $13.20.  When will people - including me - learn?  Next on my list was the "audible" bet at Churchill Downs.  They interviewed trainer Brad Cox and asked why he opted to scratch out of the stakes to run here and and cut back in distance.  His reply made me even more confident as they were thinking he might be more effective at mid-distance races and could point for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile if he ran well today.  He was a prohibitive 1/9 until close to post time before floating up to a more "fair" 1/5 price.  Cashed for over sixty dollars in his runaway performance with my "BET of the WEEKEND" $50 wager!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Shortly after the race Kim and I headed to Cooper's Hawk for a belated Mothers' Day dinner courtesy of our oldest son Jeff and his wife Trista.  When we returned home I had two late races to watch.  In the ninth race, a claiming sprint for a cheap $12.5K price tag, Paco was riding Don't Listen.  While the horse was a mere 1-for-9 in his career, he'd been running in $40K and $50K races.  Was let go at a remarkable 6/5 price.  Pressed the 8/1 front runner then glided by effortlessly and drew off in hand.  In the 11th and final race I wrote, "....you either take the short price on Paco or you're just guessing...."  I Believe In Magic had come off the shelf in an OPEN $6.25K race and faded to fourth.  Dropped into an OPEN $5K race and won.  Last out up again to $6.25K and faded to fourth.  Today, drop back down to $5K and a restricted one at that.  Tracked the 4/1 front runner to the turn and blew by without being asked, cantering under the wire for Paco's remarkable SIXTH win on the day, WOW.

For the weekend, I was officially 29 / 11 - 3 - 5 .....that's an ok 38% win percentage.  I'm ok with that, and as I told Kim - while I'd like to make a profit it's more about (a) winning / being right and (b) hitting the BEST Bets.  So on those counts, I am content with the weekend's results.  next week it's a full five days of racing for the Belmont at Saratoga Racing Festival!

Social Media this week......

I have found it interesting that my gal-pal Teri - the weekend anchor and weekday reporter - just "likes" my messages & photos these days.  Especially on the weekend I'd message her with a photo and that would trigger a multi-message conversation while she was on the air.  And if she wasn't on air we'd typically exchange several messages, not just about the photo.  But now it's just been "likes."  Still that we're connected is good enough for me at this point.  We'll see how she is once we begin traveling again.

Kimmy reacted to my message following our Panthers win in the Eastern Conference Finals.  I so very much miss having her local where we can get together and exchange stories.

Lauren Pastrana & I had multiple "conversations" this week.  Early in the week I told her about how I'd lined up two couples to join us on our 2027 "In Search Of The Northern Lights" trip because last week she'd done a "walk & talk" about sharing your "gifts" and I said my "gift" was getting people to travel with us.  Then the next morning I gave my feedback about their new "News-Verse" which has panoramic screens.  It's really cool and we've "talked" about Lauren liking to stand during the news cast, but I remarked I miss the close ups.  She replied back that they are working on that :)  This week she did another "Walk & Talk" where she shared concerns about kids in general over the upcoming summer break.  I commented to her that they were all very real concerns but let her know that once your kids grow up, the concern never goes away.  She quickly wrote back to tell me her Mom is always saying that to HER.  It brought a big smile to my face when I sent her the overview preview pic for our upcoming Alaska trip and she wrote back with a "Happy Friday" greeting and told me she'd be solo that evening - she knows how much I like seeing an "all-Lauren" newscast.  The next two days when I sent Day 1 & Day 2 Alaska previews I got "likes."  But we closed out the week Sunday when she posted a reel that she was trying to get over the anxiousness of going back to work and that she's "just that girl" from when she was growing up.  I gave her my heartfelt comment that she will always be "just that girl" that she remembers from her early years inside herself, but that she's a very special person to all of us that know her now.  She quickly wrote back, thanking me by name :)