Love Like Lucy's Debut
August 8 - 10
The weekend was bookended by two big days of handicapping and certainly the highlight of the weekend was standing along the rail at Gulfstream when my highly regarded 2yo filly, Love Like Lucy scored in her debut Friday. And because I knew I wanted to be there to witness her debut I opted to handicap the Gulfstream card for the day just in case I could find some other runners I might like. Sure enough, I found three others, the first of which came in Race 3 where Khoolzan looked to go favored in a non-winners of two lifetime sprint on the main track. The only concern I had was the career 14/1-5-3 resume. But she was going first off the claim for a barn that scores with 31% of those AND she was dropping out of five straight races against richer. Broke on top and set a moderate pace which made me "certain" she'd wire the field. But she was collared at the top of the stretch and the two dueled to the wire before she prevailed as the odds-on choice.
Race 4 was "THE BIG ONE" as my highly regarded filly, Love Like Lucy was entered in an open maiden special weight dash going six furlongs. Normally when owners, trainers, or handicappers refer to a horse they think will win, a VERY confident comment might be that they are "optimistic" about their chances. I was not a fan that she'd drawn the rail but I trusted she might be simply too good for these regardless. I'd entered the lottery through MyRacehorse to be in the paddock for her initial saddling but was notified that I was the "first alternate" and to stay close in case someone opted out or didn't show. I wasn't sure about the initial message that said to enter for the chance to be in the paddock or the winner's circle because numbers were limited. I've seen MANY times that more than ten people were in the winner's circle, especially with MyRacehorse runners. So I hung out by the paddock and watched from the rail as she was saddled and led out. Then I took a spot right near the finish line to watch the race and planned to join the celebration in the winner's circle regardless. I had a lot of confidence because you'll note what the MyRacehorse group had posted in my race analysis below......
I was not surprised when 'Lucy was hammered at the windows and was the prohibitive 1/9 favorite until about ten minutes to post time. Floated up to 1/5 and I was content with than number. Then the number went to 2/5 - oh, people giving money away I thought. And as they approached the gate they let her go off at 1-2 odds. I was delighted. When I went to the window to make my bet, my favorite girl Kimberly was working today. She said, "Oh hi - haven't see you in a long time! How are you?" I replied that I was good and that I usually didn't come out often in the off-season but today MY filly was running. Her pretty eyes popped wide and she said, "Oh really - when?" I told her in the next race and pointed to the logo on my shirt and said, "She's number 1, Love Like Lucy." Kimberly punched my ticket, opened her program and circled the number and said, "Good luck!" The gates sprung open and I was relieved that while 'Lucy did not break like a shot on top, she was only about half a step slow and quickly recovered to take the lead. But a 4/1 runner was glued to her hip. While the fractions were not sizzling I would have wished she wasn't pressured, how would she react when one of the stalkers made their run. As the fillies hit the turn 'Lucy opened the margin to a clear lead, but the closest stalker was on the move with all the momentum. Uh oh.....as heads turned for home (you can see in the highlight video below) the rival got her head clearly in front. For nearly all thoroughbreds, even ones with experience and talent, if headed in the stretch they're not winning. And that's especially true of a first time starting two-year-old....UNLESS they have real talent. That's our girl and she dug in, found another gear and collared the leader and quickly drew off at the sixteenth pole so she was clear by daylight as she flew past me where I stood on the rail. WHOOOOO HOOOOO!
I was so very excited and when they posted the payouts at $3.00 I headed back to Kimberly's window to cash for the full $30 on my "prime time" investment. Before doing so I shot my highlight video. Because MyRacehorse sponsors Gulfstream, their name is on the pavillion at the south end of the apron. So I shot an intro video with that in the background. I followed my usual practice of propping my open wallet on the big concrete planter and shot the video. Went to the top and filed the rest of the video. Kimberly greeted me with a big smile as she counted out my money and I said, "That's my filly!" Headed to the car and drove home so excited an happy. Pulled into the garage and grabbed my phone. Then I noticed.......where's my wallet? Did it fall out in the car? I don't remember taking out of my pocket. Oh no, it's not here. I must have left it on the big planter - how could I be so foolish. And immediately I thought about how we are leaving Tuesday on our trip - the hassle of the drivers' license and credit cards being gone. As I left Kim, Brad, Lauren, and Oliver were returning from the hockey camp and I called to tell her where I was going. As I got on the main road I thought, "maybe if I call Gulfstream someone could go look." So I called and they transferred me to security. I explained my situation and immediately the girl said, "You're Mark Love, a black wallet?" Yes I replied. "Yes we have it, it's already in the system. Stop by security when you get here and we'll have it." WOW what a relief, so much so that I didn't even mind the round trip nearly hour plus trip! What an adventure this was :) Because I was on the road I didn't see any of the other runners race live since I was on the road. Finally got home and watched Gold Strategy blow by the 3/5 favorite at Monmouth and I was cashing for another near-$40! Then I watched the last two Gulfstream bets win for fun so I finished five for six on the day with a nearly $50 profit!
Saturday: Arlington Million Day is a day I still look forward to, but also finds me continuing to be irritated that Churchill Downs Inc. sold the property and tore down Arlington International for real estate money. AND it's irritating that they still call the races the "Arlington Million," etc. But it brings back a good feeling from my three trips there. My first was a fly up in the morning and return home that night whirl-wind which I remember most for how nice everyone was there and in particular how cool it was to hang out with track announcer John G. Dooley, and in particular hottie handicapper Lauren Masserella. I returned to Arlington on Million Day in 2011 as part of my "just retired" track trip. I'd said for several years that I wanted to be at Saratoga Race Track on the day school opened. And with school set to open on a Monday I found I could fly to Chicago for the Million Day, then from Chicago to upstate NY on Sunday, enjoy Saratoga on the first school day and come home Tuesday. At the Million I hit ALL THREE of the graded stakes! Went back three years later and spent the big day with my buddy Keith - he's the one in the T-shirt, I'm the one in the bow tie (WOW).
The day started with a 3rd and 4th at Colonial before Dual Income drew off at Monmouth and I was 33% with only $2 loss to start the day. Did not cash a ticket for the next seventeen - yes, you read that right, 17 races - YIKES. As the losses started piling up I kept thinking "it's ok...balances out with the big 5-for-6 day Friday." But then it kept going and going :(
I made what turned out to be a exceptionally wise decision Saturday morning. You may recall from a couple weeks ago when I wrote about betting on the Twin Spires platform when handicapping the handicappers. Because that had gone well I'm more "open" to betting with them. I always check on my preferred Xpressbet for promotions, but they are much less likely to do that as Twin Spires. So I received an email that promoted a $10 refund for running 2nd or 3rd in all seven of the Arlington stakes and I thought, that might be a good idea. I think especially so because the stakes were filled with far from top notch thoroughbred stars. This proved to be so wise because FIVE of the losses on the day saw me "cash tickets" thanks to the bet-back promotion - saved me $40!
I've learned over the years that I DO WIN at my "usual rate" and so even when getting beat down by the track to keep firing! And when I do this I do have an inner sense of pride. The BET of the Weekend came at Del Mar, ironically in a race I had not even used the Daily Racing Form to pick the winner. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had won the Grade 3 Best Pal for 2yo's eleven times, including the last three years. He had a 2yo, Desert Gate who had been sensational on debut listed as the odd-son morning line favorite. I read Brad Free's analysis and he talked about two runners had exited the race to win right back and that Desert Gate had worked smartly with two other youngsters - one the $3 Million Brant who'd won in a dazzling effort and is being talked about as a Derby horse; the other "a filly" who had won with a big figure - more on this LATER! I loaded up on the bet in spite of the short odds. Desert Gate prompted the pace to the turn then ran away in an "OH MY" kind of effort, winning by a pole without being asked. Could be special!
Somewhat salvaged the end of the day by winning two races late that night at Canterbury Park when Street Warrior scored in the Wally's Chance and then Sushi Man gamely won the Minnesota Derby.
I must say, that as the day wore on Saturday I kept wondering if somehow, maybe just MAYBE Sunday might be a "bounce back" day. When I had handicapped the races for Sunday I'd also analyzed the races at Ellis Park because they were running several stakes races. And overall I thought I had several really good chances at wins. Missed in the opener when I opted to take an "optional" bet on a runner at Monmouth that I thought might be a sneaky bet (fifth at 5/1). But in the Ellis Park opener I had planned to double the investment on Best Friend in a 2yo maiden special race going the extended seven furlongs. After a photo finish debut the connections sent her to a stakes event at Prairie Meadows and she was in a photo finish when 2nd in that stakes. Today, if she could get the distance, she looked easily best. Tracked the leaders through the far turn, tipped wide into the lane and gradually wore down the stubborn front runner to score as I cashed for almost $20.
After two misses (the second at Monmouth with a 3/5 shot that ran second - oh my, is it another Saturday in the making I wondered) I was back in the winner's circle at Ellis Park. Mister Mmmmm was listed at 9/2 in the program and I noted that I'd be surprised if he offered any kind of price in this conditioned allowance, turf sprint. Over the winter he'd won back-to-back turf sprints in high priced optional claimers that were probably equivalent to this. Since then he'd been in seven straight stakes events. Hot riding Tyler G was on board. Burst out of the gate and quickly had a multiple length lead. Hand ridden to the wire never in doubt. I'm liking Ellis Park - maybe I need to plan a trip there next summer!
On the Jersey Shore I had two "big" bets. One came later in the Sunday feature, the Oceanport Stakes, but the first of them came in R3, a non-winners of four lifetime sprint going six furlongs on the main track. It's not uncommon to see nw2L and sometimes nw3L. But to see a nw4L is quite unique. Catire Viscaya was in for an $8K tag today with leading rider Paco Lopez up. Looked to sit an ideal stalking trip and if able to run anything like he did winning a $25K nw3L at Tampa this winter, he should win for fun. Sent off at a more than fair 8/5 price Paco tracked the leaders into the turn, moved to the leader and was head-and-head ready to go by. But the long time price play would not go away. A stretch-long duel ensued, and it particularly caught my attention when track announcer Matt Dinnerman called out that the rival was "drifting out" through the lane. Nose up and down to the wire, PHOTO FINISH. The photo saw I'd lost the bob, but hold on a tick..... INQUIRY! Immediately the stewards began looking at all the angles for interference with 'Viscaya's chances to win. From my perspective, the good news for me was that there was no question the unofficial winner had drifted out at least half a dozen paths forcing me to go wider and wider, losing ground. The bad news was that there was never any real contact or "interference." Finally after several minutes, "Ladies and Gentlemen there will be a disqualification!" And my number was put up. Ironically, the cash I collected here made up the vast majority of my winnings on the day!
As the stewards were going over the replays, over and over again from four different angles, they were loading into the gate at Ellis for the third, another 2yo MSW race. But this was a five and a half furlong turf sprint. I liked Zeus's Echo. Four of the ten had raced, but three had only run on the main track and the one with turf experience was a no-show finisher. Years ago at a horseplayers convention in Las Vegas I'd picked up an angle which has produced several winners over the years. In the grid selection of public handicappers, if one of them puts a horse on top that the others do not list in their top three, that's the pick. Such was the case with 'Zeus, but he was also the BEST BET for one of the three and had the hot-riding Tyler G on board. Right to the front and was never tested at a "fair" 8/5 price.
The fourth in Hendersonville was the first stakes, the Debutante for 2yo fillies. I seriously considered upping the bet on Chop Sticks with the way the FanDuel analysts were talking. But in the end - and with the bad experience on Saturday still fresh in my mind - I opted to stick with the minimum play. Tracked in third thru the turn, circled to the leaders.....dueled and edged clear in the final 100 yards for my fourth win in Kentucky - wow I'm glad I decided to handicap this card!
After two "PASS" races it was time for the Monmouth feature, the Oceanport Stakes on the grass. Air Review had won his first three starts as a juvenile then went to the Breeders' Cup. That was November 2023 and he'd not been seen again until about a month ago when we won a second level allowance at Colonial. With one under his belt and top rider Paco Lopez up he was my second "big bet" of the day. Tracked the 10/1 front runner to the stretch, collared him - but then couldn't get by! Stretch duel to the final 100 yards before edging clear for the win - my fifth straight score! Oh it's a much, MUCH better day today than yesterday :)
Ten minutes after the Oceanport they were in the gate for the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis. Like the Debutante this 2yo added money event would be contested at 7f on the main track. Comport was a highly regarded colt who appears to be a star in the making. After a debut win he dueled the eventual winner of the Bashford Manor at Churchill to the wire before finishing a photo-finish second while more than SEVEN clear of the field. Add in the blistering :59.3 bullet work for today and you can see why I upped the investment to a triple bet. Pressed the 8/1 front runner to the turn, took over and gradually drew off as much the best. Look for an even bigger stakes engagement next for this colt.
My "Best Bet" of the Day scratched out of the next stakes at Ellis and I missed with a price play at Monmouth before watching Cape Evans splash home at Gulfstream. Much like two years ago I looked at the entries at Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Del Mar and found two horses I thought would be winners locally. In the opener I scaled down the bet when the Saffie Joseph morning line favorite was NOT taking a lot of money - he ran third. But here, all six public handicappers picked Cape Evans on top and Samantha Perry singled him in her Pick-5 while making him her BEST of the Day. Since I'd cut back the bet on the first GP runner, I upped the bet to a triple investment. Circled the field into the lane and drew off as a decisive winner for my EIGHTH win of the day. (Note the TwinSpires logo as I invested, like two weeks ago, on that platform!)
Missed in the Ellis Park Derby when third at 6/5 and then I waited for about two hours for the final play of the day, which was at Del Mar. The BET of the Weekend had been the Saturday 2yo feature from Del Mar. And you'll recall I mentioned that Desert Gate had worked with the $3 Million colt and a "filly who'd won with a big figure." Her she was, Himika from the Bob Baffert barn. She had drawn the #1 hole which typically would be problematic but the FanDuel analysts pointed out she was NOT a front runner and had already proven in her debut that she was comfortable stalking from the #1 hole on the rail before finding a seam. Sent off as the short priced favorite she tracked inside until the field began to approach the far turn. Jockey Juan Hernandez took her off the rail and they SQUEEZED through a narrow opening between runners into the turn. Once clear she took off like a rocket and was gone under a hand ride - I sweep both the Ellis and Del Mar 2yo stakes for the weekend!
For the weekend, thanks to the big bookend days, I hit on 40% of my selections. I cashed - thanks to the TwinSpires "bet-back" promotion on an amazing 48.9% of my picks despite the long Saturday without many winners. The 45/ 18 (22) - 8 - 6 numbers were even better when noting I posted an ROI of $2.02 for the three days. YAY....GO Me!
Next week we fly to San Francisco and a six day adventure in Napa Valley with two couples we met on our 2019 Viking river cruise through Portugal. Because we'll be out of town (and it's somewhat of an "off weekend" for big races), it's highly unlikely I'll be playing any races next weekend. See you on August 22nd!
Social Media this week....
Catching up on social media contacts for the last two weeks since last week I concentrated on just the many birthday wishes. If you follow my adventures you know that I so adore my favorite former student Kimmy. We exchanged messages first about my big win with Seismic Beauty on my birthday weekend and this this week we had a "conversation" about Love Like Lucy and her kids. Almost ten years before I met Kimmy I had Brittany Bragg in my freshman World History Honors class and again in my senior AP Mickonomics class. Britt nominated me for a Disney Teacher of the Year award and she has always, and will always be atop my most favorite formers list. I share this because Sunday night Kim and I went to Dairy Queen for ice cream. There was a family - Mom, Dad, two little ones - trying to decide what they wanted and Kim said, go ahead, we will wait. The Mom said, no we're not ready....then she looked at me and said, "Coach Love, right...." I looked at her, how would she know. And then she said, "Brittany" and I could see Britt's features in this girl who said, "I'm Brittany's younger sister." We chatted and as our ice cream came out she pulled her phone out and FaceTimed with Britt. She was as surprised and excited to see me as I her as she was grocery shopping with her FOUR kids in New York. What a great surprise!
My gal-pal Teri gave me THE BEST compliment of the two weeks when I sent her a collage of two photos of me just before my birthday. I thought I had not changed much in 15 years and her comment that I look BETTER now made me oh-so-happy! She also commented about my big with with Lucy, our visit to Jaxson's and our upcoming trip to Napa Valley.
Lauren Pastrana was back from her week long baseball vacation in Tennessee and it was good to see her back on the air. We exchanged a few interactions, but my favorite was on my birthday when I sent her a collage of where we'd gone over the last 365 days she commented about the many wonderful adventures we've had this past year!
