Fall 25: Week 1

 Pacific Classic Weekend
August 30

It was the College Football Kickoff weekend and the start of the Fall Racing Season.  As such, it's typical that I have far less racing as we head towards the Breeders' Cup World Championships, and almost exclusively the selections are on Saturdays.  On this particular Labor Day weekend Saturday I only handicapped the Del Mar card as it was Pacific Classic Day with five graded stakes, three of which were Breeders' Cup Win & You're In events, and I handicapped the Louisiana Downs Louisiana Cup Day card which featured six state-bred stakes.  The racing for me didn't start until late afternoon where the Del Mar opener had a 4:30pm EST post time.  The first from where "the surf meets the turf" was a one mile turf race for older maiden specials.  The only public handicapper left that I've learned to rely on and be able to interpret his analysis is So Cal DRF analyst Brad Free.  He noted about Tempus Volat that would be "hard to beat" I knew that I had the right runner.  Wasn't completely convinced he was the kind of runner I'd want to up the bet on so I only went in for the minimum.  Broke sharply and immediately took command.  Held a clear lead into the lane and held the closers off bravely to win at a nice $7.00 payout.

Passed on Del Mar's 2nd and the La Downs opener, then in R2 in Bosier, La my pick scratched out when the race moved from the turf to the main track.  The third from Louisiana was the first of the six added money events, the Louisiana Cup Sprint.  I anticipated He's Just Lucky to be a short priced favorite and a likely winner.  If he ran back to either of his last two he'd win for fun.  With a career mark of 6-for-14 and a recent bullet move I doubled the bet.  Pressed the early 70/1 front runner to the stretch then drew off handily as much the best.  I thought the $5.40 payoff was generous and was thankful to the "value bettors" who were looking for a better price rather than the winner!

Right back into the winner's circle with Rising Inflation in the Louisiana Cup Distaff.  Scheduled to be run on the turf, I noted that it would be interesting to see how the bettors handled 'Inflation as both her last two Beyers were daylight lengths clear of the rest of the field's best numbers, BUT she'd never run on the turf.  So when the race was moved to the main track, she became my bet.  She tracked the 9/5 front runner into the turn, slid through on the rail and opened up a lead of almost a length turning for home.  But her rival wasn't done and came back, and took the lead.  This almost always the kiss of death for a thoroughbred when headed in the lane, and especially when inside on the rail.  But Rising Inflation would have none of this, re-rallied....stretch duel....and was just in front on the wire carrying my triple investment!  Exciting race - I noted that most racing fans today would be focused on the "big tracks" at Saratoga & Del Mar but there is often quality racing and betting opportunities at the smaller venues as well :)

The Del Mar 4th was a 2yo MSW and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had a MyRacehorse filly in Misstrial.  She'd broken poorly as a short priced favorite on debut and looked pretty strong in here.  I almost upped the bet but there seemed to be a lot of support for a first timer, so I held the bet at $10.  Made a strong bid and then was no match for the top two when third.  Glad I didn't go "all in."  The fifth at La Downs was the Louisiana Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  Initially I listed a price play as my bet despite starting the analysis with Six String.  Next to NEVER do I not talk about my pick first.  My concern with the daughter of champion Star Guitar was that she'd been a short priced favorite in the last SIX starts, yet only produced two wins and all six were shorter races than today's six furlongs.  I noted to "watch the board for clues before making a final decision."  The bettors were all over Six String, not only in the WIN pool but in the multi-race payoffs.  So I not only went with her, but upped the bet.  Right to the front and in hand easily all the way to the wire.  Great decision Mr. Mark!

In the first of the Del Mar graded stakes, the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile I liked Formidable Man.  He'd won four of his last six and I could easily excuse the two losses.  I probably would have been better served to have gone in for another click on the wagering scale, but the fact that he did have a loss - to go with two wins over - one of today's rivals AND that one had Flavian Prat held me back.  Was near the back through a very moderate pace and I was concerned.  Got in the clear, wide through the turn and blew by to win going away.  I KNEW he was best.

Missed in a stakes at LaD and DMR before scoring in a conditioned allowance on the turf at Del mar.  I noted that nearly any handicapping tool would lead you to Vibez and she was my pick.  I hesitated going any deeper than a double investment because she was coming off back-to-back 2nd place finishes and just wasn't so sure she wanted to win.  Fourth along the rail to the turn, split rivals into the clear and set sail for home winning as she pleased.  My SIXTH winner on the day - I'm having a good day!

I made the final four bets and sat down with Kim to watch some TV programming.  In between episodes I pulled up the replay from the finale at LaD where I finished 2nd at 4/5 in the La Cup Juvenile.  Then I watched the Grade 3 Green Flash from Del Mar.  This turf sprint was the first of the three consecutive Breeders' Cup Win & You're In races.  Motorious looked much the best to me.  I knew he was a closer and going an abbreviated five furlongs on the turf that could be problematic.  Of the 104 running lines showing, his last two beat 100 of them.  And two of the competitive numbers were over a year old.  Add in that he was 4/3-1-0 at the distance here at Del Mar and I thought he was a top choice, so I tripled the bet.  As the race unfolded he was not only last but a distant last.  Got going into the turn and fanned some eight wide while flying on the outside.  I don't think he's going to make it I thought and he was JUST short.  But immediately on the replay the INQUIRY sign went up.  In the crowded twelve horse field, Motorious was in post ten.  At the break the #11 horse made an immediate move to get more inside and multiple horses were bothered, especially Motorious who was checked to last.  The inquiry went on for seven minutes before the stewards voted unanimously that the nose loss would have been reversed had he not been bothered at the break.  And so I cashed for over $40!  HORRAY for the stewards :)

The final win of the day came in what was intended to be my BET of the Day.  I really think that Bob Baffert's Nysos could be one of "those" special horses and I was all in on him.  But the morning of the race in a light breeze the Hall of Fame conditioner noted he was slightly favoring his back angle.  Scratch.  I was willing to go with my second choice, Todd Pletcher's Fierceness without hesitation, but not as much of an investment.  In my original analysis I thought the winner almost certainly would be one of the top three choice.  I "tossed" 3yo Journalism who I've NEVER thought was as good as he's made out to be.  Don't get me wrong, he's talented, but just not a "superstar" as he's billed to be.  Especially west coast fans just think he's amazing, which explains why he went off at an absurdly low 2/5 price in this $1 Million Grade 1 Win & You're In event.  My concern with Fierceness was would he run his "A" game?  I thought he was going to run lights out last time in the Gr 1 Whitney and he faded in one of his typical "go figure" efforts.  But if Todd Pletcher & John Velazquez were willing to come to So Cal I figured they must think he's ready to run.  Right out of the gate, TROUBLE.  Fierceness ducked in towards the temporary rail from his #1 post and was behind horses.  He always does his best running on or pressing the lead so this could be a real concern.  But I noted Velazquez seemed to have him comfortable where he was.  Split rivals into the turn and burst to the front quickly opening up almost half a dozen.  Journalism made a big run, got within less than two lengths at the furlong pole, then Fierceness let it out a notch and widened the margin of victory to score emphatically.

For the day I was a big time 8-for-15 (that's over 53% for those of you without a calculator!) and profited over $60!  A great start to the Fall Season.  I ran the numbers on the Spring-Summer season and the results were what I would have guessed.  With rare exception it seemed most weekends I won at a better than average rate, close to 40% most of the time.  But the number of price horses was low and nearly all of the time I had a small loss at the end of the weekend.  And those figures were confirmed with the final five month totals.  I also found it interesting that in 2022 I bet 847 races over this period of time....in 2023 I bet 835....in 2024 it fell off to 736, but to be fair we were on two extended trips.  This summer the total number of bets was only 602.  I believe this reflects what I complain about at Gulfstream over the last two winters, the lack of quality horses, and races.  More than a few times this summer I've remarked on big days at the big summer meets at Saratoga & Del Mar how surprised I am to find restricted mid-to-low level claiming races.  And so I think this explains the much lower number of bets because there aren't as many races where I find a horse with an edge.  I also think that this explains the lower income I get in return because the horse who IS the most likely winner is much more "obvious" to bettors facing weaker rivals.

Social Media this week......

More interactions with my gal-pals than I'd imagined as the week went on, but nearly all of it were "likes" - which I'm "ok" with because TO ME, not having any face-to-face interaction with real people other than my adorable wife, I at least get the "satisfaction" that my friends know I'm out here :)  I reached out to my best gal-pal, Kimmy to ask her opinion on the Orlando 2nd home idea.  I (a) respect her unbiased opinion generally, and (b) know she has worked with financial numbers for years.  She got back to me right away and we did exchange messages that we'd LIKE to FaceTime....maybe someday.

Speaking of the Orlando 2nd home thing, we got a few more listings from our girl Sophia, this week.  I reacted to one in particular and then wrote that as we built our personal friendship and professional relationship I thought perhaps she'd like to know more about me.  I gave her the "Cliff notes" version of my story building the World's Largest Ice Cream Sundae, my football coaching background, and the Cypress Bay graduation where we hosted the Vice President.  Loved her reaction :)

Funny how my "relationship" with Teri, the former CBS Morning anchor goes.  Some weeks she'll message me multiple times per contact.....other times, like this week I get random "likes."  One thing is for sure about the posts Teri puts out - she KNOWS how good looking she is and doesn't mind showing everyone that she is indeed a real beauty.  What I know is that she's a sweet inside as out!

Lauren reacted to multiple messages I sent her this week but we didn't have any "conversations."  I particularly liked several times when I messaged her while she was on the air that I got a response within minutes :)  I found it particularly "interesting" that when she posted on Facebook an adorable pic of herself in red against a green background, and remarked it was "only" 119 days to Christmas, that she reacted to my comment from her personal FB page, because...after all....we ARE FB friends :)