July 2 - 5
A new month and with it the opening of my favorite summer-time track, Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore. Been there three times and I'm looking forward to the next visit! Monmouth only runs Friday through Sunday and so my plan was to scale back on the daily handicapping routine to fit their schedule, but then I saw that on Thursday one of my favorite stakes runners was in action at Belmont and one of trainer Bob Baffert's promising three-year-olds was also in action. So I decided to start the week a day early.
Thursday July 2
After an excellent month of handicapping in June, it was time to turn the page to a new month. And in spite of scoring with 40% of my picks I began this next segment of the summer racing season with hopes of actually moving that number forward because over the past few years when I play Monmouth daily, I score at a higher than normal rate of success. I scanned the racing world news every day and I'd seen that Fifty Five, a very consistent turf mare was running in Belmont's Thursday featured event and contemplated playing, but it wasn't until I saw that Bob Baffert's $3.65 Million prize 3yo colt Cezanne was running in an allowance at Los Alamitos that I decided to go ahead and handicap the races for the day. At Belmont I found four races from their nine race program that I liked someone. I didn't like anyone even enough to mention them in the opening race. In the 2nd I mentioned two horses I couldn't separate so I passed. The top one scratched, so my "top pick" was the 4/5 favorite and won. In the third it was a Maiden Special going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Trainer Linda Rice sent out Blackjack Davie with a lot to like. First, the pace flow favored his stalking style. In his last race, sprint, he'd caught a muddy track AND had left the gate last of thirteen - still made up ten lengths by the time they reached the wire. And finally, DRF analyst Mike Beer pointed out that Rice had won with 12-of-31 dirt sprint to route second time maidens - that's nearly 40%. OK, that's a pretty narrow window, but I thought it significant. Doubled the bet. He broke a bit slowly and was near the back to the mid-point on the turn. Swooped by decisively and drew off to score at better than 5/2 odds!
Cashed for nearly $40 to start the new week and month, whooo hooo. Passed the fourth, but my top choice won at 8/5. Passed the fifth, my top choice won at 3/1 odds. So I've now picked the winner of four in a row. Can this keep going? In the sixth it was a strong and deep entry level allowance for three year olds. Hall of Fame trainer was high on his colt, Creed and they talked about on "America's Day At The Races" that some talk had been heard that IF he ran well today maybe taking a shot at the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga next month. He was the 7/5 choice and was well back behind a torrid pace. Began picking off runners on the turn, made a five-wide bid into the lane and wore down Chad Brown's Mister Winston in deep stretch to score!
Five in a row (two straight winning bets). Los Alamitos was starting and I'd passed their opener....yes, my top choice won as the 3/2 favorite. The seventh at Belmont was an exceptionally deep no conditions allowance going a one-turn mile. Two Todd Pletcher runners looked "live," but I was willing to dismiss both since John Velazquez, his go-to man, was riding the race and was on neither of them. I liked Chad Brown's Complexity, a $375K son of Maclean's Music. The colt had only been out six times and if you tossed the three Gr 1 starts in his last four starts you were left with: a blow-out win in his debut, a blow-out win in the Grade 1 Champagne in his first start against winners, and a blow-out win in a second level allowance at Aqueduct. Brown had been deadly with layoff runners like this, especially those owned by the Klaravich Stables as was Complexity. Tracked the leaders to the stretch, moved four-wide and blew open the race.
He too was a generous 5/2 and I cashed for over $35. The streak of non-stop winners came to an end when the pick in the Los Al 2nd - a "no bet" race - didn't score. Missed with an actual bet in the 3rd at Los Al when Quick Finish was second at even money. Next was the first of my two BIG bets on the day, the Mount Vernon Stakes at Belmont for NY-breds. As I said, it's a horse race and anything COULD happen but it was difficult to go against favorite Fifty Five, one of my favorite turf mares. The last five times she'd been in a NY-bred stakes, she'd won - that goes back to fall 2018. She had built an 8/6-1-0 resume over that span and her two losses came in a Gr 3 at Parx when carried out wide into the lane and missed by a half length and in the Gr 2 Ballston Spa when beaten half a length. She'd beaten three of the six lined up to face her today and the other three had lost to one of the mares she'd beaten. Tracked a slow pace, which had me concerned that she was still towards the back. Swept up powerfully, stretch duel.....PHOTO FINISH!
WHEW, just a nose in front (watch the recap video, oh so close) and I had my fourth win from five bets in New York. The second and final bet at Los Alamitos was the race I'd been pointing for today. And it was my BET of the Day . I'd seen Bob Baffert's $3.65 Million Cezanne had debuted with a giant, blow-out win and big figure. Two years ago he'd had a high priced 3yo colt and he scored a big figure win in a sprint, then ran in a two-turn mile allowance - won again. Justify went on to win the Triple Crown. Earlier this year another high-priced 3yo colt won a sprint debut, then a two-turn one mile allowance....Charlatan then won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and was pointing for the Kentucky Derby until recently having a setback. Now comes Cezanne....won the sprint race last time and was going in a two-turn, one mile allowance at Los Alamitos. He pressed the leader to the far turn, took over willingly and ran away.
Finished the day five-for-six and a nice, big profit. Not bad for a day I'd planned to sit out :)
Friday July 3
The long-awaited return to racing on the Jersey Shore was today with a special 5 pm post time. My first trip here had come in 2000 when I took my oldest son Jeff on his senior trip, "Track Tour 2000" when we visited five tracks in five days, including Monmouth. My next stop here came once I'd retired and I came here for the 2014 Haskell Invitational and spent the weekend on "the Shore." I was supposed to be travelling here last summer with my buddy Jim Anderson, but he passed away suddenly - still having a hard time dealing with that. But then my long-time pal Keith and I decided to do a "Track Trip," and we went to three tracks in three days, including the first stop here. Perhaps most noteworthy for this 2020 opening with a look towards the future of racing, Monmouth was allowing fans to attend the racing (with protective protocols). For the first full day of racing there were six races carded and I had picks in three of them. Missed in the opener with a Chad Brown maiden turf runner - I'd questioned how effective he'd be with the "first string" in New York, but over the last few summers when Brown runs here, he wins at about a 40% clip. Not this time, 5th at 4/5. In the second it was "the main man" Paco Lopez, who's King of Monmouth, who brought home my first winner on the Jersey Shore. Kristi's Copilot was the DRF's Kenny Peck's Best of the day. And it was interesting to me that he liked both the first race favorite and this one because typically he's NOT one to pick favorites, especially for a "best." Kristi's Copilot was a front-runner/pace presser and those kind run well for Paco. Tracked the pace into the far turn, made "the move" while gliding to the front, and then came the patented Paco look-back. When Lopez looks under his shoulder it's nearly always because he knows he's loaded and knows he's on his way, but does he need to really ask. ALWAYS a great sign. Kristi's Copilot drew off and I had my first Monmouth winning ticket. Much the best and cashed for over $20.
Missed in the third, but in the fourth I had another Brown turf runner. Duopoly had debuted last time out as the favorite at Churchill Downs. He drew wide and jockey Javier Castellano never got him out of the wide path. What jumped off the page for me was that BOTH the winner and runner-up came back to win with big Beyers. Right to the front and when the stalkers made their move approaching the top of the stretch, jockey Nik Juarez let him run and he ran away as tons the best.
Went off at a generous 2/1 so I collected $30 on my second winner of the day. The final win on this Friday Opening Day card came in the finale, a maiden claiming event where it was such a "Duh" selection. Paco Lopez was on a class dropping front runner. OK, I get it why he wasn't odds on because of the low speed figure, but it was easy to see why he didn't get a big number. Crafty Lass was my "best bet" of the day so I wasn't surprised when she was the early favorite in the betting. But as we approached post time the crowd pounded the #9. I looked her up....already a TEN-time maiden, and ridden by a jockey making his first ride OF THE YEAR, and I'm pretty sure his first career mount. Over class-dropping Paco front runner? Are you kidding me? The favorite was a highly overbet 3/5 and chased Crafty Lass into the lane before Paco opened her up and ran away as TONS the best. Couldn't believe I cashed at nearly 5/2 odds.
Saturday: July 4
Today I had picks starting at noon and not finishing until 10:30 pm with the running of the Louisiana Legends stakes at Evangeline Downs in Louisiana. With nearly forty selections on the page(s) for the long day of thoroughbred racing I had to wonder how I'd do after running through an 8-for-12 first two days of the week. My buddy Paul Gorlick texted me that he and his pals (all of whom follow my selections online) were playing this Saturday and wanted to know how many tracks I was playing. Sent him the link and also mentioned to him that after the first two days, either I was "on a roll," or today we'd see the "numbers even out." Missed on the first three, but the first two were minimum bets and the third was a price play at 6/1 (4th, closing into a slow pace). The opener at Belmont was a maiden claimer with Irad Ortiz on the probable short-priced winner. Charlotte Webley had dropped into a $30K maiden off of back-to-back MSW tries and led to deep stretch before being caught by the favorite. Today looked to be her day. Right to the front, opened up and held off the closers despite drifting through the lane.
Tripled the bet on my first score. Three passes and three misses brought us to the third at Belmont and the first graded stakes of the day. And it was in this, the Grade 3 Victory Ride that I felt I had the "Best Bet" in New York. Bill Mott's filly, Frank's Rockette has looked exceptionally fast and talented.....most of the time. But there have been times when she just didn't seem to have the courage to fight on occasion. But here, she had the rail in a short field, John Velazquez on board and was clearly THE LONE speed. Looked long gone. Off a beat slow, but quickly to the front, but Johnny V didn't gun to the lead he let her find her stride. The opening quarter wasn't fast at all and the half was quick, but not sizzling. She opened up some daylight turning for home but two other fillies would not go away. It was a thrilling stretch drive ... the other filly took one last shot, PHOTO FINISH. I thought it was really too close to call but it SEEMED at just the right moment I had the nose down. YES.....great race, and a big win.
Missed at Gulfstream, passed two other tracks and we were back for the fourth in New York. It was a nine furlong turf event for maidens of the special weight variety (as Pete Aiello would say). I liked Mr. Jaggers who would give trainer Bill Mott a middle Daily Double. In his debut at a mile he'd been a sharp third despite trouble. Two blistering bullets since the debut made him look worth every bit of the even-money morning line. Tracked the lonshot leaders, slid up an opening on the rail and held the closers off for a daylight win.
It was another hour (and three losses later) when I got my next win, and it was the second stakes win of the day. Typically find it difficult to play Gulfstream once the big names have left unless there's a series of big races. But today there were two stakes so I looked at the card. The first of the stakes was up next, the Azelea Stakes for 3yo fillies. I had been disappointed that Boerne didn't win the Game Face Stakes, the prep for this, but she hadn't been able to clear the field to take advantage of her speed. She looked like the lone speed in here and I thought she'd easily carry the day. Right to the front and wired the field. She DID drift outward several paths in deep stretch which resulted in both an objection and steward's inquiry. I watched the replays and honestly - even though I had the winner - I didn't see anything worth taking her down. The analysts on TVG called it a "50-50 call at best." NO CHANGE! And for some reason, I had upped the bet and so I cashed with a triple investment.
Another near-hour between wins, but it was the third at Los Alamitos (after two seconds, two thirds, and two fourth place finishes - one of the seconds as the 1/5 favorite at Monmouth with one of my "best/prime time" bets of the day. As I noted in the analysis, the paired 33 Beyers that Sweet Honor owned wouldn't be cause for "excitement" in many circumstances, but in here they towered over the field. Sent off at even money she went wire to wire easily.
Minutes later it was time for Gulfstream's eleventh race, the co-featured Carry Back Stakes for three-year-old colts. Double Crown looked very strong to me. After a debut win over two next out winners at Laurel he shipped to Gulfstream and he was a best-of-the-rest second despite having to steady at the half mile pole. Returned next out in the Roar Stakes and faced graded stakes winner Green Light Go who was odds on. But he beat that one at a short 5/2 price. No one of that quality looked to be in this field. Tracked the leaders to the top of the stretch opened up and drove to the wire to win by daylight.
Less than ten minutes later they were loading into the gate at Monmouth. This was a starter handicap going a mile on the turf. Flowmotion was the DRF best bet and the wide draw (post 12) didn't look to be a problem as she was a closer and there was plenty of pace. AND you got top rider Paco Lopez for trainer Jane Cibelli. Prssed to the stretch - took off as much the best driving to the wire for a big win and I cashed for nearly $35 as somehow Flowmotion was allowed to go off at better than 2/1 odds.
Missed in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont where I didn't feel strongly about any of them, but went with the Chad Brown "other" horse (third at 5/2). I'd played limited races at Woodbine but hadn't had any luck until we go to race nine, a monied allowance. Chuck Willis was either going to be tons the best or an overrated favorite. Off of a two year layoff he'd returned in a sprint for second level allowance runners. Hopped at the start, then shot to the front, cleared the half mile in a wicked :44.4 then powered home as easily best. How good would he be today? Right to the front, in complete control, wiring the field by daylight, in hand.
I closed out this amazing ninety minute sequence of six races with my FIFTH win during that span in a 2yo MSW at Los Alamitos. Sonic Brees was DRF Analyst Brad Free's Best Bet today. He had all kinds of trouble in his debut and still managed to be second, and the winner turned out to be pretty good, ran third in a Gr 3 event next out. Pressed to the turn, took over into the long stretch and an away as much the best.
I missed at Gulfstream and then Kim and I enjoyed dinner while I had only one race over an hour span. Lost the second "prime time" play of the day when McKenzie just didn't fire in the Grade 1 Runhappy Met Mile. After the long break (and Kim and I went for a walk) the Grade 1 Manhattan was wide open going a mile and a quarter on the turf. I thought longshot Channel Maker had as good a chance as anyone, so I made a minimum bet. At 23/1 odds he took the lead turning for home and held it to the furlong pole - could it be? Nope, faded, but not by much, late to finish fourth. The Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby was next and it's a great example of why racing is such a great game. On paper you'd look at the two Bob Baffert favorites....one was a multiple graded stakes winner and had won a Gr 2 HERE last year. The other was a last-out maiden winner. Duh, how hard is that to figure out. Oh no my friend. This race was ALL about Uncle Chuck, the last out maiden winner. He'd won for fun in a maiden debut going a mile, but it was the way he looked that had everyone very excited, even at the expense of his more experienced stablemate. Pressed the leader to the turn, took over willingly and when his stablemate made a bid, he opened up and ran away.
The final big stakes at Belmont was the mile and a quarter Grade 2 Suburban. The cast was not stellar and I thought clearly Tacitus was the feature runner. BUT he'd had so many losses, with excuses. Even trainer Bill Mott remarked earlier he wanted to see him run his race and not have any excuses. Well John Velazquez gave him a Hall of Fame ride and when he turned for home, he opened up like a superstar and drew off by more than eight widening lengths to win the 130th edition of this historic feature.
The first of the big Louisiana Legends races was on tap next where Relentless Dancer was entered in the La Legends Cheval. Of the combined races of the rest of these lightly raced 3yo, one would challenge ANY of the lifetime figures earned by Relentless Dancer. And he'd not only won for fun in state-bred company but he'd faced graded company in the Gr 2 Holy Bull, Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby and also seen stakes rivals in Gulfstream's Unbridled Stakes. Easily best as the prohibitive favorite.
Lost the third of my BIG bets in the Grade 3 Great Lady M when Bellafina didn't fire her best shot. Missed in two MSW events - one at Los Al and one at Evangeline before I got a nice upset price in the Louisiana Legends Turf Distaff. Mariah's Galaxy had only been on the turf once but that came in OPEN company and she only lost by a length and a half. Her last four, albeit on dirt, had earned Beyers that would win this for fun. Tracked the top three into the turn, swung four-wide into the stretch, took a narrow lead and held off the late closing favorite.
The $9.20 price got back nearly $25 - if only I'd gone in for more, sigh.... Missed in the La Legends Sprint before closing out the long day with my 39th selection of the day in the Louisiana Legends Soiree for 3yo fillies. Vacherie Girl, the "real one" should win here tonight, but there had been the "who's that" version of Vacherie Girl on more than one occasion. And tonight she faced an unbeaten filly who would try to stretch out in distance. Vacherie Girl tracked a dawdling pace to the stretch, edged clear then fought to the wire and held on for the narrow win!
So by the end of the day, I'd finished 15-for-39, which is a better-than-my-average 38.5% - I'll take that any day of the week. But I lost money with three of the four big bets failing to score. If one of those three had hit I'm probably at the "break-even" point. Typically for me to have a money-winning day I need to hit all my "big bets" and have at least one price play score. Close with several of those, but didn't get any.
Sunday July 5
The week wound down with seven picks from twelve races at Monmouth, but the first play of the day came in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse Stakes from Sandown Race Course in England where champion Enable was making her 6yo debut. Normally she'd have been a "prime time" play, but (a) the original plan had been to retire her, (b) how good would she be at age six, (c) knowing she probably has very few "A" game races left and the target is a third win in the Arc de Triomphe how really cranked would she be. And then there was the second choice in the program. A lot of Euro handicappers thought he was the real deal and he'd be hard for Enable to catch. So I only went in on a double investment. She sat in mid-pack while her rival coasted loose on the lead. That's not good. She gave it a big effort and passed all but the winner. Watch for her next time. We drove to Orlando for two days so I watched that race and all the Jersey Shore events later in the day. Missed with a minimum bet in the opener but in the third I got another winner. I wrote that Mo City might just be a rare Paco Lopez price play in an entry level turf sprint. She'd been competitive in stakes but had never been on the grass. That move was a 20% angle for the barn which was an even bigger 38% with Lopez on board. Made the threatening move to challenge turning for home and caught the leader, my second choice. But that one, who was in about the three-path began drifting and drifting carrying Mo City out with him. By the time we were nearing the wire I had to be ten wide and another runner was flying up inside of us.....photo finish!
I was PRETTY sure I'd won, but it was close. And while I thought I might get a little better price, I was delighted to get $6.60 on a Paco Lopez winner for a trainer he wins 40% with. Passed the next three, then was a dismal 9th at 5/2 before getting to the 8th, which was my "Monmouth Best" on this final day of the racing week. Entry level allowance races are always difficult to figure. But there are two kind of horses that typically win more than their fair share and are usually good bets. The first is a lightly raced runner who's been competitive against winners after a big maiden win. None of those in here. The other is a horse who's entered in an "Allowance-Optional Claiming" race like this that HAS ALREADY WON an entry level allowance. Share The Ride was just that kind of runner. Not only had the gelded son of champion Candy Ride won an entry level allowance, but he'd won a second level AOC AND a no-conditioned allowance event. He'd been at Monmouth only twice, but BOTH were stakes tries (he was third in one of them). And oh yeah, Paco was up for another barn that he wins at a near-40% clip. Was four wide to the front, dueled with a 30/1 long-time leader to past the 16th pole then drew off.
Cashed for over $35 on the final winner of the week. Was third twice and fifth with the last three picks. So with the racing in the books, my numbers for the week:
And for a flat bet profit. Gotta love that for the way to start the second month of the summer!
Very excited to continue the Monmouth Park handicapping project next week, but it's a BIG week with Keeneland running their special summer meet.
My Online Social Life
You know by now if you've read all the way through my journals that I enjoy being in touch with people online. And much like last week I exchanged messages with CBS-4 anchor gal, one of my favorite online personalities, Lauren Pastrana. Early in the week there were news stories about travel, especially by air. So she threw out the question, "Do you have plans to travel by air?" And of course I responded, which got a nice reply :)
Then later in the week I heard from my son Jeff who told me one of his buddies works in a testing facility. He questioned the official numbers that the news puts out on the virus, so I thought "Who better to do some investigative journalism than my gal-pal Lauren?" SO I emailed her. I wasn't really surprised, but sort of was that she replied.....
So I wrote back and she replied again :)
Also on Friday, one of my most favorite former students, and adult-gal pal Kimmy reached out to me and after a text exchange we talked on the phone for almost an hour, cool beans.
And finally, on Saturday I'd taken a photo of me at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" with the "America's Day At The Races" logo on the screen. Early in the racing day, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney was doing her usual great work and I thought she might enjoy a shout out that all of us Gulfstream fans were still following her. So I sent her the photo with a message. Within minutes SHE responded :)
It was a very busy social week online for this handicapper guy!
After an excellent month of handicapping in June, it was time to turn the page to a new month. And in spite of scoring with 40% of my picks I began this next segment of the summer racing season with hopes of actually moving that number forward because over the past few years when I play Monmouth daily, I score at a higher than normal rate of success. I scanned the racing world news every day and I'd seen that Fifty Five, a very consistent turf mare was running in Belmont's Thursday featured event and contemplated playing, but it wasn't until I saw that Bob Baffert's $3.65 Million prize 3yo colt Cezanne was running in an allowance at Los Alamitos that I decided to go ahead and handicap the races for the day. At Belmont I found four races from their nine race program that I liked someone. I didn't like anyone even enough to mention them in the opening race. In the 2nd I mentioned two horses I couldn't separate so I passed. The top one scratched, so my "top pick" was the 4/5 favorite and won. In the third it was a Maiden Special going a one-turn mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Trainer Linda Rice sent out Blackjack Davie with a lot to like. First, the pace flow favored his stalking style. In his last race, sprint, he'd caught a muddy track AND had left the gate last of thirteen - still made up ten lengths by the time they reached the wire. And finally, DRF analyst Mike Beer pointed out that Rice had won with 12-of-31 dirt sprint to route second time maidens - that's nearly 40%. OK, that's a pretty narrow window, but I thought it significant. Doubled the bet. He broke a bit slowly and was near the back to the mid-point on the turn. Swooped by decisively and drew off to score at better than 5/2 odds!
Cashed for nearly $40 to start the new week and month, whooo hooo. Passed the fourth, but my top choice won at 8/5. Passed the fifth, my top choice won at 3/1 odds. So I've now picked the winner of four in a row. Can this keep going? In the sixth it was a strong and deep entry level allowance for three year olds. Hall of Fame trainer was high on his colt, Creed and they talked about on "America's Day At The Races" that some talk had been heard that IF he ran well today maybe taking a shot at the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga next month. He was the 7/5 choice and was well back behind a torrid pace. Began picking off runners on the turn, made a five-wide bid into the lane and wore down Chad Brown's Mister Winston in deep stretch to score!
Five in a row (two straight winning bets). Los Alamitos was starting and I'd passed their opener....yes, my top choice won as the 3/2 favorite. The seventh at Belmont was an exceptionally deep no conditions allowance going a one-turn mile. Two Todd Pletcher runners looked "live," but I was willing to dismiss both since John Velazquez, his go-to man, was riding the race and was on neither of them. I liked Chad Brown's Complexity, a $375K son of Maclean's Music. The colt had only been out six times and if you tossed the three Gr 1 starts in his last four starts you were left with: a blow-out win in his debut, a blow-out win in the Grade 1 Champagne in his first start against winners, and a blow-out win in a second level allowance at Aqueduct. Brown had been deadly with layoff runners like this, especially those owned by the Klaravich Stables as was Complexity. Tracked the leaders to the stretch, moved four-wide and blew open the race.
He too was a generous 5/2 and I cashed for over $35. The streak of non-stop winners came to an end when the pick in the Los Al 2nd - a "no bet" race - didn't score. Missed with an actual bet in the 3rd at Los Al when Quick Finish was second at even money. Next was the first of my two BIG bets on the day, the Mount Vernon Stakes at Belmont for NY-breds. As I said, it's a horse race and anything COULD happen but it was difficult to go against favorite Fifty Five, one of my favorite turf mares. The last five times she'd been in a NY-bred stakes, she'd won - that goes back to fall 2018. She had built an 8/6-1-0 resume over that span and her two losses came in a Gr 3 at Parx when carried out wide into the lane and missed by a half length and in the Gr 2 Ballston Spa when beaten half a length. She'd beaten three of the six lined up to face her today and the other three had lost to one of the mares she'd beaten. Tracked a slow pace, which had me concerned that she was still towards the back. Swept up powerfully, stretch duel.....PHOTO FINISH!
WHEW, just a nose in front (watch the recap video, oh so close) and I had my fourth win from five bets in New York. The second and final bet at Los Alamitos was the race I'd been pointing for today. And it was my BET of the Day . I'd seen Bob Baffert's $3.65 Million Cezanne had debuted with a giant, blow-out win and big figure. Two years ago he'd had a high priced 3yo colt and he scored a big figure win in a sprint, then ran in a two-turn mile allowance - won again. Justify went on to win the Triple Crown. Earlier this year another high-priced 3yo colt won a sprint debut, then a two-turn one mile allowance....Charlatan then won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and was pointing for the Kentucky Derby until recently having a setback. Now comes Cezanne....won the sprint race last time and was going in a two-turn, one mile allowance at Los Alamitos. He pressed the leader to the far turn, took over willingly and ran away.
Finished the day five-for-six and a nice, big profit. Not bad for a day I'd planned to sit out :)
Friday July 3
Missed in the third, but in the fourth I had another Brown turf runner. Duopoly had debuted last time out as the favorite at Churchill Downs. He drew wide and jockey Javier Castellano never got him out of the wide path. What jumped off the page for me was that BOTH the winner and runner-up came back to win with big Beyers. Right to the front and when the stalkers made their move approaching the top of the stretch, jockey Nik Juarez let him run and he ran away as tons the best.
Went off at a generous 2/1 so I collected $30 on my second winner of the day. The final win on this Friday Opening Day card came in the finale, a maiden claiming event where it was such a "Duh" selection. Paco Lopez was on a class dropping front runner. OK, I get it why he wasn't odds on because of the low speed figure, but it was easy to see why he didn't get a big number. Crafty Lass was my "best bet" of the day so I wasn't surprised when she was the early favorite in the betting. But as we approached post time the crowd pounded the #9. I looked her up....already a TEN-time maiden, and ridden by a jockey making his first ride OF THE YEAR, and I'm pretty sure his first career mount. Over class-dropping Paco front runner? Are you kidding me? The favorite was a highly overbet 3/5 and chased Crafty Lass into the lane before Paco opened her up and ran away as TONS the best. Couldn't believe I cashed at nearly 5/2 odds.
No post-race close up/slo-mo of the winner :(
Collected over $50 on the winner and closed the day 3-for-6. WHOOO HOOO, welcome back Monmouth!
Saturday: July 4
Today I had picks starting at noon and not finishing until 10:30 pm with the running of the Louisiana Legends stakes at Evangeline Downs in Louisiana. With nearly forty selections on the page(s) for the long day of thoroughbred racing I had to wonder how I'd do after running through an 8-for-12 first two days of the week. My buddy Paul Gorlick texted me that he and his pals (all of whom follow my selections online) were playing this Saturday and wanted to know how many tracks I was playing. Sent him the link and also mentioned to him that after the first two days, either I was "on a roll," or today we'd see the "numbers even out." Missed on the first three, but the first two were minimum bets and the third was a price play at 6/1 (4th, closing into a slow pace). The opener at Belmont was a maiden claimer with Irad Ortiz on the probable short-priced winner. Charlotte Webley had dropped into a $30K maiden off of back-to-back MSW tries and led to deep stretch before being caught by the favorite. Today looked to be her day. Right to the front, opened up and held off the closers despite drifting through the lane.
Tripled the bet on my first score. Three passes and three misses brought us to the third at Belmont and the first graded stakes of the day. And it was in this, the Grade 3 Victory Ride that I felt I had the "Best Bet" in New York. Bill Mott's filly, Frank's Rockette has looked exceptionally fast and talented.....most of the time. But there have been times when she just didn't seem to have the courage to fight on occasion. But here, she had the rail in a short field, John Velazquez on board and was clearly THE LONE speed. Looked long gone. Off a beat slow, but quickly to the front, but Johnny V didn't gun to the lead he let her find her stride. The opening quarter wasn't fast at all and the half was quick, but not sizzling. She opened up some daylight turning for home but two other fillies would not go away. It was a thrilling stretch drive ... the other filly took one last shot, PHOTO FINISH. I thought it was really too close to call but it SEEMED at just the right moment I had the nose down. YES.....great race, and a big win.
Missed at Gulfstream, passed two other tracks and we were back for the fourth in New York. It was a nine furlong turf event for maidens of the special weight variety (as Pete Aiello would say). I liked Mr. Jaggers who would give trainer Bill Mott a middle Daily Double. In his debut at a mile he'd been a sharp third despite trouble. Two blistering bullets since the debut made him look worth every bit of the even-money morning line. Tracked the lonshot leaders, slid up an opening on the rail and held the closers off for a daylight win.
It was another hour (and three losses later) when I got my next win, and it was the second stakes win of the day. Typically find it difficult to play Gulfstream once the big names have left unless there's a series of big races. But today there were two stakes so I looked at the card. The first of the stakes was up next, the Azelea Stakes for 3yo fillies. I had been disappointed that Boerne didn't win the Game Face Stakes, the prep for this, but she hadn't been able to clear the field to take advantage of her speed. She looked like the lone speed in here and I thought she'd easily carry the day. Right to the front and wired the field. She DID drift outward several paths in deep stretch which resulted in both an objection and steward's inquiry. I watched the replays and honestly - even though I had the winner - I didn't see anything worth taking her down. The analysts on TVG called it a "50-50 call at best." NO CHANGE! And for some reason, I had upped the bet and so I cashed with a triple investment.
Another near-hour between wins, but it was the third at Los Alamitos (after two seconds, two thirds, and two fourth place finishes - one of the seconds as the 1/5 favorite at Monmouth with one of my "best/prime time" bets of the day. As I noted in the analysis, the paired 33 Beyers that Sweet Honor owned wouldn't be cause for "excitement" in many circumstances, but in here they towered over the field. Sent off at even money she went wire to wire easily.
Minutes later it was time for Gulfstream's eleventh race, the co-featured Carry Back Stakes for three-year-old colts. Double Crown looked very strong to me. After a debut win over two next out winners at Laurel he shipped to Gulfstream and he was a best-of-the-rest second despite having to steady at the half mile pole. Returned next out in the Roar Stakes and faced graded stakes winner Green Light Go who was odds on. But he beat that one at a short 5/2 price. No one of that quality looked to be in this field. Tracked the leaders to the top of the stretch opened up and drove to the wire to win by daylight.
Less than ten minutes later they were loading into the gate at Monmouth. This was a starter handicap going a mile on the turf. Flowmotion was the DRF best bet and the wide draw (post 12) didn't look to be a problem as she was a closer and there was plenty of pace. AND you got top rider Paco Lopez for trainer Jane Cibelli. Prssed to the stretch - took off as much the best driving to the wire for a big win and I cashed for nearly $35 as somehow Flowmotion was allowed to go off at better than 2/1 odds.
Missed in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont where I didn't feel strongly about any of them, but went with the Chad Brown "other" horse (third at 5/2). I'd played limited races at Woodbine but hadn't had any luck until we go to race nine, a monied allowance. Chuck Willis was either going to be tons the best or an overrated favorite. Off of a two year layoff he'd returned in a sprint for second level allowance runners. Hopped at the start, then shot to the front, cleared the half mile in a wicked :44.4 then powered home as easily best. How good would he be today? Right to the front, in complete control, wiring the field by daylight, in hand.
I closed out this amazing ninety minute sequence of six races with my FIFTH win during that span in a 2yo MSW at Los Alamitos. Sonic Brees was DRF Analyst Brad Free's Best Bet today. He had all kinds of trouble in his debut and still managed to be second, and the winner turned out to be pretty good, ran third in a Gr 3 event next out. Pressed to the turn, took over into the long stretch and an away as much the best.
I missed at Gulfstream and then Kim and I enjoyed dinner while I had only one race over an hour span. Lost the second "prime time" play of the day when McKenzie just didn't fire in the Grade 1 Runhappy Met Mile. After the long break (and Kim and I went for a walk) the Grade 1 Manhattan was wide open going a mile and a quarter on the turf. I thought longshot Channel Maker had as good a chance as anyone, so I made a minimum bet. At 23/1 odds he took the lead turning for home and held it to the furlong pole - could it be? Nope, faded, but not by much, late to finish fourth. The Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby was next and it's a great example of why racing is such a great game. On paper you'd look at the two Bob Baffert favorites....one was a multiple graded stakes winner and had won a Gr 2 HERE last year. The other was a last-out maiden winner. Duh, how hard is that to figure out. Oh no my friend. This race was ALL about Uncle Chuck, the last out maiden winner. He'd won for fun in a maiden debut going a mile, but it was the way he looked that had everyone very excited, even at the expense of his more experienced stablemate. Pressed the leader to the turn, took over willingly and when his stablemate made a bid, he opened up and ran away.
The final big stakes at Belmont was the mile and a quarter Grade 2 Suburban. The cast was not stellar and I thought clearly Tacitus was the feature runner. BUT he'd had so many losses, with excuses. Even trainer Bill Mott remarked earlier he wanted to see him run his race and not have any excuses. Well John Velazquez gave him a Hall of Fame ride and when he turned for home, he opened up like a superstar and drew off by more than eight widening lengths to win the 130th edition of this historic feature.
The first of the big Louisiana Legends races was on tap next where Relentless Dancer was entered in the La Legends Cheval. Of the combined races of the rest of these lightly raced 3yo, one would challenge ANY of the lifetime figures earned by Relentless Dancer. And he'd not only won for fun in state-bred company but he'd faced graded company in the Gr 2 Holy Bull, Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby and also seen stakes rivals in Gulfstream's Unbridled Stakes. Easily best as the prohibitive favorite.
Lost the third of my BIG bets in the Grade 3 Great Lady M when Bellafina didn't fire her best shot. Missed in two MSW events - one at Los Al and one at Evangeline before I got a nice upset price in the Louisiana Legends Turf Distaff. Mariah's Galaxy had only been on the turf once but that came in OPEN company and she only lost by a length and a half. Her last four, albeit on dirt, had earned Beyers that would win this for fun. Tracked the top three into the turn, swung four-wide into the stretch, took a narrow lead and held off the late closing favorite.
The $9.20 price got back nearly $25 - if only I'd gone in for more, sigh.... Missed in the La Legends Sprint before closing out the long day with my 39th selection of the day in the Louisiana Legends Soiree for 3yo fillies. Vacherie Girl, the "real one" should win here tonight, but there had been the "who's that" version of Vacherie Girl on more than one occasion. And tonight she faced an unbeaten filly who would try to stretch out in distance. Vacherie Girl tracked a dawdling pace to the stretch, edged clear then fought to the wire and held on for the narrow win!
So by the end of the day, I'd finished 15-for-39, which is a better-than-my-average 38.5% - I'll take that any day of the week. But I lost money with three of the four big bets failing to score. If one of those three had hit I'm probably at the "break-even" point. Typically for me to have a money-winning day I need to hit all my "big bets" and have at least one price play score. Close with several of those, but didn't get any.
Sunday July 5
The week wound down with seven picks from twelve races at Monmouth, but the first play of the day came in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse Stakes from Sandown Race Course in England where champion Enable was making her 6yo debut. Normally she'd have been a "prime time" play, but (a) the original plan had been to retire her, (b) how good would she be at age six, (c) knowing she probably has very few "A" game races left and the target is a third win in the Arc de Triomphe how really cranked would she be. And then there was the second choice in the program. A lot of Euro handicappers thought he was the real deal and he'd be hard for Enable to catch. So I only went in on a double investment. She sat in mid-pack while her rival coasted loose on the lead. That's not good. She gave it a big effort and passed all but the winner. Watch for her next time. We drove to Orlando for two days so I watched that race and all the Jersey Shore events later in the day. Missed with a minimum bet in the opener but in the third I got another winner. I wrote that Mo City might just be a rare Paco Lopez price play in an entry level turf sprint. She'd been competitive in stakes but had never been on the grass. That move was a 20% angle for the barn which was an even bigger 38% with Lopez on board. Made the threatening move to challenge turning for home and caught the leader, my second choice. But that one, who was in about the three-path began drifting and drifting carrying Mo City out with him. By the time we were nearing the wire I had to be ten wide and another runner was flying up inside of us.....photo finish!
I was PRETTY sure I'd won, but it was close. And while I thought I might get a little better price, I was delighted to get $6.60 on a Paco Lopez winner for a trainer he wins 40% with. Passed the next three, then was a dismal 9th at 5/2 before getting to the 8th, which was my "Monmouth Best" on this final day of the racing week. Entry level allowance races are always difficult to figure. But there are two kind of horses that typically win more than their fair share and are usually good bets. The first is a lightly raced runner who's been competitive against winners after a big maiden win. None of those in here. The other is a horse who's entered in an "Allowance-Optional Claiming" race like this that HAS ALREADY WON an entry level allowance. Share The Ride was just that kind of runner. Not only had the gelded son of champion Candy Ride won an entry level allowance, but he'd won a second level AOC AND a no-conditioned allowance event. He'd been at Monmouth only twice, but BOTH were stakes tries (he was third in one of them). And oh yeah, Paco was up for another barn that he wins at a near-40% clip. Was four wide to the front, dueled with a 30/1 long-time leader to past the 16th pole then drew off.
Cashed for over $35 on the final winner of the week. Was third twice and fifth with the last three picks. So with the racing in the books, my numbers for the week:
And for a flat bet profit. Gotta love that for the way to start the second month of the summer!
Very excited to continue the Monmouth Park handicapping project next week, but it's a BIG week with Keeneland running their special summer meet.
My Online Social Life
You know by now if you've read all the way through my journals that I enjoy being in touch with people online. And much like last week I exchanged messages with CBS-4 anchor gal, one of my favorite online personalities, Lauren Pastrana. Early in the week there were news stories about travel, especially by air. So she threw out the question, "Do you have plans to travel by air?" And of course I responded, which got a nice reply :)
Then later in the week I heard from my son Jeff who told me one of his buddies works in a testing facility. He questioned the official numbers that the news puts out on the virus, so I thought "Who better to do some investigative journalism than my gal-pal Lauren?" SO I emailed her. I wasn't really surprised, but sort of was that she replied.....
So I wrote back and she replied again :)
Also on Friday, one of my most favorite former students, and adult-gal pal Kimmy reached out to me and after a text exchange we talked on the phone for almost an hour, cool beans.
And finally, on Saturday I'd taken a photo of me at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" with the "America's Day At The Races" logo on the screen. Early in the racing day, hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney was doing her usual great work and I thought she might enjoy a shout out that all of us Gulfstream fans were still following her. So I sent her the photo with a message. Within minutes SHE responded :)
It was a very busy social week online for this handicapper guy!
