June 24 - 28: Stephen Foster Week
The last full week of the first full month of the Summer Racing Season came to a culmination with a huge day of racing on Saturday. But the week was noteworthy on a couple of other fronts. First, on Monday I drove across the state to check on rental homes in Cape Coral, Fla to help our oldest son coaching his first high school football team. And early in the week I had another social media exchange with one of my news-girls - I just always find that very interesting and rewarding that they would take time to "chat" with me :) So here's how the week's racing unfolded, followed by a brief look at the other "news" from the week.....
Wednesday June 24
A DISMAL start to the week. I thought I'd play Gulfstream knowing that finding solid bets would be difficult at this time of the year. Still I liked runners in six of the ten races well enough to play. Not sure how much the fact that I was home alone played into how much I DID like their chances vs. how much I WANTED to like their chances. I was nearly certain that even if I missed on five of the picks I had a pretty good chance of scoring in the 2nd with Dizzy Gillespie. He had the rail and was THE lone speed. He'd won eight times at this one-turn mile and was 8-for-21 at the trip, three for twenty at all other distances. Strictly his race to lose. Well, you assume that it would be a "normally" run race. Instead, the gates opened and he literally walked out of the gate, immediately spotting them a dozen lengths and more importantly forfeiting his front-running advantage. Dull fifth at 4/5, and that was the "highlight" of the day. I ran second in two other races - once being caught on the wire and once getting loose late to close with a flourish on the turf. Not how I wanted to start the week, especially considering how last Sunday had gone with the long string of losses. On to Thursday.
Thursday June 25
I knew I wanted to play Woodbine today with it's 3:45 first post because they were running the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier and the prohibitive favorite would be Pink Lloyd who was trying to capture this graded event for the FOURTH time. But I have had success at Belmont of late so I decided to play there as well. On a normal Thursday with Kim home, would I have played both tracks? Not so sure, but I AM home alone, so I DID handicap both sets of races. The first five races I had picks I ran 6th, 4th, 2nd (at 9/2), 2nd (at 9/5), and 2nd (at 6/5). WOW. AGAIN, not the way I saw the day going. I kept trying to tell myself however that my numbers always "level out," and if I am on a skid now, I most certainly will go on a streak at some point soon. Finally got my first winner when first time starter Twick got through on the rail and scored at $6.60 in the 3rd at Woodbine. That was at about 4:45 so it had been a LONG day of racing to this point. Fortunately I was occupied with handicapping for Saturday. I thought after Twick won that "here we go," but instead in a two-horse field at 1/5 I ran 2nd in the Belmont feature. Really? Missed in the fifth at Woodbine when 6th at 5/2 after dueling and stopping. Then was 2nd best in Woodbine's 6th at even money. But I kept telling myself - "think the long run," as I know at some point the wins will come, and if the day ends as I anticipated, all I'll really remember is the big bet and win with Pink Lloyd. Finally a little before 7 pm it was post time for the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier. The ONLY real reason to go against the favorite was the skimpy odds. But, he'd been out 27 times with TWENTY-TWO WINS, all here. At this distance he was a remarkable 17-for-18. I mean come on. Granted he's seven now and been gone for many months. BUT he'd fired a big bullet, his trainer said he's never been better, and he's won multiple times off a layoff. He had the outside box, post five, in a short field and would have no traffic issues - I made him the BET of the WEEK. Pressed the leaders to the top of the lane, accelerated to catch them, briefly dueled with the rail runner then edged clear.
What was most remarkable in the grand scheme of things was that after being 1/9 in the program his odds went UP to 1/5 and not just $2.40 for the payoff but $2.50. So I cashed for well over $60 on my big-time bet and I was a happy handicapper for the day.
Friday June 26
When deciding how to play Friday I settled on the fact that I'd have many opportunities on Saturday and I'd just played two tracks on Thursday (with very limited success) so I just played Belmont. You know, it's one of the great things about this game.....some times I've spent hours handicapping, spent the entire day from noon to well past six with over thirty selections and made about $10. Then there are days like today. Spent about an hour and a half handicapping; had only five picks but had a very successful day! I had a strong play in the opener who was 4/5 in the program, but he scratched out. Thought about playing my second choice, but like is the case often, my second horse I write about is NOT who I think is the second most likely winner. Passed - he didn't win by the way. In the second Cobble Hill was the 6/5 program favorite and was running in a $20K maiden claiming event. Already a seven-time loser he's the type I'll most often avoid. But in here, I liked his chances. First, it caught my eye that DRF analyst Mike Beer who next-to-never likes the favorite had picked both my 4/5 choice in the opener and this 6/5 runner. That carried some weight. Second, I know you can make numbers say anything, but play along.....in his last five starts he'd run two numbers that beat 58 of the 59 numbers in the field. The one that would compete was earned in state-bred company and ALL of Cobble Hill's were earned in OPEN company. What of the other three races? A two-turn turf event, toss; a try vs. MSW runners (open remember), I don't have a problem tossing that; and then a bad try over a muddy track - more tricky but if you toss it you're left with two, dirt sprint tries vs. open maiden claimers that would bury this field. Doubled the bet.....tracked between runners, moved to the outside and into the clear, then drew off.
Sent off at even money I cashed for a little over $20 to start the day. The third race was my "best" of the day. Chad Brown sent out Good Governance in an entry level allowance coming off of a long break dating back to Saratoga last August. But, the Klaravich-owned colt had won on debut despite a wide post with a big 86 figure. Came back first time winners in the Gr 3 Saranac and lost by a mere neck to a runner who exited the win to take another Gr 3 race. If running to anything close to his best, he's the winner. Well, nearly all of Brown's layoff runners at this summer Belmont meet - and especially the Klaravich turf runners - have run big. Tracked while third confidently held by Irad Ortiz. Let him loose at the top of the lane and he was L-O-N-G gone. Went off at 1-2 odds which I thought were more than generous and I cashed for over $20 again....two-for-two.
In the fourth I liked the second choice, Sanity to take down the program's 4/5 favorite. Of the twelve lines of past performances listed for Sanity only four of them were in turf sprints. But they all earned Beyers at the top of the field. And what separated Sanity from the favorite was that all of her turf sprint numbers came in open company while the short priced favorite had run in state-bred events. She's lost for a tag AND her one win showing was in a "beaten" $16K event going five furlongs at Gulfstream. NOT the resume I want for my top choice. Irad Ortiz had been named on my first race pick and on the next two. As I wrote, it is unrealistic to think he'd win all of the first four races, but he looked "live" again here. Well, he didn't win the first four.....because he didn't ride in the opener! Sanity pressed a 50/1 lonogshot from the rail, shot through an opening at the top of the stretch and drew off as the 6/5 second choice.
And AGAIN I cashed for more than $20.....three-for-three :) Passed the fifth and my final play came in the sixth, a maiden special event going a mile on the turf. I always start my handicapping by looking at who should be the favorite and are they legitimate, vulnerable, and/or beatable. Barleewon looked very legitimate in this field. Three weeks ago he beat five of the nine facing him today. And that came when coming off a three month break. Certainly would move forward here. The others were decidedly outsiders. Still, wasn't willing to go "all in," just the minimum. Tracked a 6/1 front runner who went way too fast for the opening half mile (:45 and change), then blew by to win going away.
So for the day I was four-for-five and profited over $35. I'll take that kind of result any day of the week. And I was hopeful that I had some momentum heading into the big Saturday of racing.
Saturday June 27
I had picks from 1 pm to 6:30 pm from three different venues, including a host of stakes selections. Started off with a third place finish in the Woodbine opener but in the opener at Belmont I liked Sun Summers with Irad Ortiz up in a nw2L turf route. As I commented, if she did NOT run one of her "A" races she was just another runner in here, probably vulnerable at a short price. BUT....last time out she had posted a 73 Beyer which WOULD win today. And that came after an 11-month layoff. So second off the shelf, with a sharp bullet work and Irad taking over. All signaled to me a big effort. Was confidently handled on the rail the top of the lane, moved into the clear by splitting rivals and then drove clear for the win.
Missed again at Woodbine before it was time for the second at Churchill Downs. I had selected Frost or Frippery to win but only planned to bet the minimum on the 8/5 morning line favorite. Typically when a claimer wins you don't like seeing them come back at the same level, they SHOULD move up. But I thought it was clever spotting by trainer Brad Cox that he claimed 'Frost two back and dropped him in for a cheaper tag to win last time out. And today he was running with conditions for the same price tag, but as a "starter" event he was not eligible to be claimed. When I saw how very heavily he was being played in the win pool and the double pools I decided to up the bet. Much like Sun Summers he was very confidently handled and ran away as much the best.
Passed the 2nd in New York, missed at Woodbine and Churchill then passed at both Woodbine and Belmont, so nearly an hour had gone by since I'd won the 2nd in Louisville. The fourth was a maiden special for juveniles. I've not had much success with 2yo races so I am reluctant to bet them, especially races like this where nearly all of them were debut runners. But Whiskey Double was making his first start for Steve Asmussen AND this was the first 2yo race I've seen at six furlongs. This colt was an $875 Million son of top sire Into Mischief and was partially owned by the Winchell group, who partnered with Asmussen to win the Kentucky Oaks with champion Untappable. I thought it significant that the barn had two in here but go-to rider Ricardo Santana was onboard 'Whiskey. He tracked the pace professionally to the top of the lane, engaged the leader and edged clear through the final 16th.
Right back in the fourth at Belmont where Timely Tradition looked clearly best as the morning line favorite. She had been claimed three back by a little known barn but the results were immediate. Drilled $25K NY-bred claimers at Aqueduct then beat $40K starters at Oaklawn. That one saw her blitz through an opening quarter in :21 and change, get collared but fought back and drew off. Her paired Beyers were indicative that she might improve yet again under Joel Rosario. Went right to the front where Rosario backed down the opening quarter to :23 and change, and that was that. Plenty left for the stretch as she drew off handily.
Four wins from my first eight picks and I'm having a good Saturday....and the big races / big bets haven't even been up yet. Passed on the fifth at Woodbine and then came what turned out to be the "Day-Maker." The fifth at Churchill was a MSW event but it was set at a marathon mile and 3/8th on the main track. Very unique distance. Clearly the top two choices on paper were Todd Pletcher's Ashiham and his last race rival Baker's Bay. But I was against BOTH. Why? Ashiham had been the favorite while Baker's Bay had been 19/1 that day. 'Bay had been drawn in post eleven, dueled all the way on the lead and weakened to be third. But despite the post, the race-long duel, and the 19/1 odds, the favorite couldn't catch him. That didn't sound good for EITHER. So I looked elsewhere and landed on third choice Amani's Eagle from the Asmussen barn with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith up. He, unlike the other two was based here, was a new shooter and as a son of champion American Pharoah I thought he'd have no problem with the distance. AND he had a sharp bullet work. I decided to double the bet. When the wagering opened he was 7/1 and cold on the board. I withheld the bet and kept watching. And when his odds didn't come down I began to wonder if I'd been wrong in my analysis. I wavered back and forth, considered dropping the bet and then finally decided "NO, I AM right" and made the bet. Right to the front and wired the field in hand as much, MUCH the best. And the price, oh my, was $14.20 so I cashed for over $70 - whoooo hooooo!
Missed in the sixth at Woodbine. Next up was the sixth at Churchill Downs. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott next to never has them ready first time out. But Paris Lights had run a sharp third on debut. Came right back and scored for fun as the favorite at today's mile and a sixteenth distance with a big 84 Beyer. If he ran two alike, which I thought was very likely, he'd beat this entry level allowance field. Typically this condition is difficult to predict with a wide variety of runners in the field. But the "ideal" kind of win bet is a lightly raced runner on the improve, like Paris Lights. Sent off as the short-priced 3/5 favorite he pressed the leader while under a tight hold until they got to the top of the lane then took off as easily best.
Missed in the next two then a pass in the 7th at Churchill. Now the stakes action began and first up was the Grade 2 Nassau going a mile over the Woodbine turf. And because of the unique configuration of the Toronto track where the turf is on the OUTSIDE, this was a one-turn trip. I thought it interesting that with multiple stakes at BOTH Belmont and Churchill - several on the grass - that the racing secretary at Woodbine had set this race for today. So it came as no surprise to me that there weren't many entered and there also were not any "star" runners. In fact the lone graded stakes winner in the field was Graham Motion's Elizabeth Way who was listed as the 4/1 third choice in a field of six. Most of her races were at far longer distances but I noted that in her first North American start she came off the shelf and won going a mile and a sixteenth, so I was ok with the trip. As the field hit the far turn I was happy with my pick because the co-favorites were on the lead and in mid-pack. Elizabeth Way had been pressing the leader from the outset, and as they turned for home I anticipated her to kick to challenge and take over. But instead it was the 2/1 favorite who kicked clear. The other favorite was no danger and I looked destined to run second. But Woodbine has a L-O-N-G stretch and inside the final 200 yards Elizabeth Way accelerated, heads up and down, PHOTO FINISH!
YES.....and at a big $13.30 payoff too! They had no sooner crossed the finish line than they were loading into the gate for the first of the four graded stakes at Churchill. It was the first two-year-old stakes of the year, the Grade 3 Bashford Manor going six furlongs. Steve Asmussen, again, had a highly touted youngster in Cazadero. He'd run a hole in the wind in his debut, blowing out the competition and earning a field-best 81 Beyer. For a debuting two-year-old, that's a big number. And what was really interesting, AND a big plus in his favor, was oddly the Stonestreet Stable colt was the only runner in the field who retained his maiden-winning rider. I planned to triple the bet but had told myself to watch the board to consider downgrading if someone else got a lot of money. But no, he was pounded on the board. Not a "good bet" considering there was only the maiden race to go on, but then the second best number in the field compared to his 81 Beyer was a 58. Oh. Stalked to the top of the stretch, as asked for run and ran away as much, MUCH the best.
Just prior to the Elizabeth Way win I missed in Belmont's first graded event, then right after the Bashford Manor I missed in their second event - both times with the public choice. Now came what I thought was the most intriguing race of the day, the Grade 2 Fluer de Lis from Churchill Downs. It featured a match-up between Midnight Bissou and Serengeti Empress. Midnight Bissou as a 3yo had been, I thought, clearly the second best filly in the country behind Monomoy Girl. She "beat" the champion in the Grade 1 Cotillion in THE WORST steward's DQ in the history of horse racing. Let's not get into it now, STILL irritates me no end. But last year Monomoy Girl had injuries and setbacks and never got to the races or to defend her BC Distaff win here at Churchill Downs (when I bet her) and she beat Midnight Bissou. Meanwhile 'Midnight DID come back and she rattled off SEVEN wins in a row including three Gr 1 wins. She was second best in the BC Distaff at Santa Anita when I thought jockey Mike Smith had her too far off the pace of a lone front runner. And that was the concern today. Her 2020 debut was a flying finish to just miss in the $20 Million Saudi Cup behind Maximum Security and the world's best male runners. Serengeti Empress is a "need to lead" type and when she gets loose, it's all over. AND she'd won for fun not once but TWICE here under the Twin Spires, most notably in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last spring. And in today's field she was the one and ONLY front runner. Many of the on-air analysts of "America's Day At The Races," including hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney, liked that angle. If Serengeti's Empress got loose I thought Midnight Bissou could track her from a few lengths off and run her down because she WAS the best horse in the field. Steve Asmussen had publicly said she was "the best horse in the world" and has openly said he's considering running her in the BC Classic against the boys. So I noted in my analysis that I was concerned that Smith would ride her like he did in the Distaff. I wondered if I should change my bet but finally decided to stick with Asmussen and Smith as they knew her better than I did. Right out of the gate Serengeti Empress went to the front and opened up by daylight. The fractions were fast but I've seen her run like this - and the analysts had noted pre-race that she can run very fast when loose on the lead and still run home to win. Where was Midnight Bissou? At least seven or eight lengths back in mid-pack to the far turn. This isn't good. Smith asked her for her run and instantly she accelerated to fourth, third, and now was second within a couple of lengths of the leader midway on the turn. Could she run her down? In a flash before they came out of the turn Midnight Bissou blitzed by like Serengeti Empress was tied to the rail. Ran off as much, MUCH, M-U-C-H the best. CLEARLY the best performance of the day, just WOW.
I had contemplated making her the BET of the Day but was afraid of the pace scenario. Obviously that should not have been a concern. I won the next race on the list, the Grade 2 True North at Belmont. And how ironic, and again one of the MANY things I love about racing, that THIS stakes event was the one in New York - and for the day actually - that I had the least confidence in my selection. This six and a half furlong sprint had zero confirmed front runners. And I initially put Promises Fulfilled on top, then switched to Firenze Fire who would press the pace. His numbers were better and I didn't want a pace duel from someone who didn't figure to be on the front end. Then Promises Fulfilled scratched making the pace flow even more sketchy. But with Irad Ortiz up the race ran pretty much as I anticipated. Two that I didn't think had a realistic chance dueled on the front while 'Fire sat comfortably in third. Switched out at the top of the lane and ran off. Easy, peasy pie.
Missed in the finale at Woodbine and then it was time for the BIG RACE, the national feature, the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap from Louisville. Tom's d'Etat was my choice. He'd been a "good" handicap horse as a five-year-old but last year at six he'd blossomed late in the year. After taking the restricted Alydar at Saratoga in the summer he was a close fourth in the Grade 1 Woodward at the Spa. But then he was much the best in Keeneland's Grade 2 Fayette and came right back to get his first Grade 1 when he dominated the Clark Handicap HERE under the Twin Spires. Today's race was at the same nine furlongs as the Fayette and Clark, and 'Tom was a superior 5-for-8 at this trip. He was coming off of a win in the Oaklawn Mile which interestingly had NOT been their target, but their original target race had been scheduled, before the pandemic, on the exact same date and distance at Keeneland. So he was coming into today right on schedule. A lot of people liked the second choice in the field, By My Standards. And you could understand their case. Once he broke his maiden he came right back in his next start to win the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby. Next he was a troubled trip "no show" in the Kentucky Derby. Off until February he won his 2020 debut at the Fair Grounds in an allowance race, then won the Gr 2 New Orleans on La Derby Day there. And most recently won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. That earned him a career best 102 Beyer. But, from the field's 114 combined races there were four triple digit figures, including that 102. By contrast Tom's d'Etat had run SEVEN STRAIGHT 100+ Beyer figures. Uh oh. Tracked the leaders to the turn and just as By My Standards began to close in on him from mid-pack Tom's d'Etat took off and ran away as a visually impressive winner. NICE!
Missed in the last two stakes of the day but finished an excellent 12-for-24 while winning three of the big four graded events in Louisville, and with money in my pocket for the day. YAY ME!
Sunday June 28
Again I debated - like last week - on not playing today. Didn't like the looks of the New York or Kentucky card. Gulfstream looked equally unappealing. Then I noticed Lone Star was running three stakes on their card. Better than not playing I thought. Mixed reviews following the races. On the one hand, I was happy to have something to occupy the afternoon and early evening before going to the airport to pick Kim up. I was disappointed I only had the one winner, but the racing was good and on all but one of the races I had a chance at the top of the lane. The one victory came in the featured Grand Prairie Derby where I took Steve Asmussen's Little Menace. He'd only been out three times, and all in sprints. But a son of top sire Into Mischief he would nearly certainly enjoy the added ground and looked to be the controlling speed. He and the second choice went at it right out of the gate and were heads apart into the far turn. Instead of setting up the closers they opened up on the field and now it was who wanted it more. They dueled to the furlong pole before Little Menace, even though tight on the rail, said "enough of this" and edged clear to win going away.
And so I closed out a good week overall, especially the Friday & Saturday action. This also closed out the first month of summer and my numbers were STELLAR....
"The News" section....
So Monday morning I drove to Cape Coral and was hopeful to get an idea of what we'd be doing for a rental. I had resigned myself to the fact that we would be committing to a month of rent, but balanced that knowing we'd get to see Jeff and our grandsons (as well as Antoinette) for the time being. And it would be easier on my Mom to visit with them knowing we'd be staying locally and not driving across the state and back again on the same day. I'd been working with a realtor, who'd been very helpful, but as I set out Monday all I had was an appointment with the realtor; left messages with four agents; and was going to look at two houses. The first came from the only agent who answered the phone on Sunday and she didn't have the condo I was interested in but had this 3/2 house about ten minutes from the high school. It was great and I'd have signed on the dotted line except I'd been in touch with a guy from Norway who owned a house and I wanted to see it. I'd "met" him via my good gal-pal Anya who lives in Cape Coral. One of her book-club friends had this guy as a neighbor. We met that neighbor and she let us in, and WOW....take a look:
A touch more money than the first house, but so much bigger and more open AND directly on the water, AND a bigger pool and deck. By the end of the day Tuesday I'd signed a lease with "Lars" and we had Face-Timed to "meet" each other. Very happy with the decision and choice.
Within the span of a week I had not one but two exchanges with my online gal-pal from CBS Channel 4. First, on Tuesday of this week my "friend," hottie newscaster Lauren Pastrana posted a video showing her preparing to anchor the news from her garage. I truly was impressed that she was the stage-hand having to set the entire shoot up; was the make-up artist doing all her own make-up, and then the actual news-anchor. So I messaged her to tell her how impressed I was. She replied minutes later, literally just minutes later....
And what I thought was really cool was that she posted this on Facebook at 4:25 pm, less than a half hour before she went on the air as the anchor. I saw it at about ten minutes to air time and three minutes later, literally she had to be sitting at the news desk preparing to go on air, she not only "LIKED" my comment, but took the time to write back. I LIKE being Lauren's friend :) Then on Monday of this week Lauren posted on Twitter a short video clip from the Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. Lauren and I had "talked" about her enjoying the evening shift and not having to get up so early previously, so I commented that it had to be nice for her to actually be up to SEE the Tonight Show....
I so appreciate Lauren and her willingness to reach out and communicate. I want to reach out and see if I might possibly get a studio tour and meet her. That would be amazing :)
A DISMAL start to the week. I thought I'd play Gulfstream knowing that finding solid bets would be difficult at this time of the year. Still I liked runners in six of the ten races well enough to play. Not sure how much the fact that I was home alone played into how much I DID like their chances vs. how much I WANTED to like their chances. I was nearly certain that even if I missed on five of the picks I had a pretty good chance of scoring in the 2nd with Dizzy Gillespie. He had the rail and was THE lone speed. He'd won eight times at this one-turn mile and was 8-for-21 at the trip, three for twenty at all other distances. Strictly his race to lose. Well, you assume that it would be a "normally" run race. Instead, the gates opened and he literally walked out of the gate, immediately spotting them a dozen lengths and more importantly forfeiting his front-running advantage. Dull fifth at 4/5, and that was the "highlight" of the day. I ran second in two other races - once being caught on the wire and once getting loose late to close with a flourish on the turf. Not how I wanted to start the week, especially considering how last Sunday had gone with the long string of losses. On to Thursday.
I knew I wanted to play Woodbine today with it's 3:45 first post because they were running the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier and the prohibitive favorite would be Pink Lloyd who was trying to capture this graded event for the FOURTH time. But I have had success at Belmont of late so I decided to play there as well. On a normal Thursday with Kim home, would I have played both tracks? Not so sure, but I AM home alone, so I DID handicap both sets of races. The first five races I had picks I ran 6th, 4th, 2nd (at 9/2), 2nd (at 9/5), and 2nd (at 6/5). WOW. AGAIN, not the way I saw the day going. I kept trying to tell myself however that my numbers always "level out," and if I am on a skid now, I most certainly will go on a streak at some point soon. Finally got my first winner when first time starter Twick got through on the rail and scored at $6.60 in the 3rd at Woodbine. That was at about 4:45 so it had been a LONG day of racing to this point. Fortunately I was occupied with handicapping for Saturday. I thought after Twick won that "here we go," but instead in a two-horse field at 1/5 I ran 2nd in the Belmont feature. Really? Missed in the fifth at Woodbine when 6th at 5/2 after dueling and stopping. Then was 2nd best in Woodbine's 6th at even money. But I kept telling myself - "think the long run," as I know at some point the wins will come, and if the day ends as I anticipated, all I'll really remember is the big bet and win with Pink Lloyd. Finally a little before 7 pm it was post time for the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier. The ONLY real reason to go against the favorite was the skimpy odds. But, he'd been out 27 times with TWENTY-TWO WINS, all here. At this distance he was a remarkable 17-for-18. I mean come on. Granted he's seven now and been gone for many months. BUT he'd fired a big bullet, his trainer said he's never been better, and he's won multiple times off a layoff. He had the outside box, post five, in a short field and would have no traffic issues - I made him the BET of the WEEK. Pressed the leaders to the top of the lane, accelerated to catch them, briefly dueled with the rail runner then edged clear.
What was most remarkable in the grand scheme of things was that after being 1/9 in the program his odds went UP to 1/5 and not just $2.40 for the payoff but $2.50. So I cashed for well over $60 on my big-time bet and I was a happy handicapper for the day.
Friday June 26
When deciding how to play Friday I settled on the fact that I'd have many opportunities on Saturday and I'd just played two tracks on Thursday (with very limited success) so I just played Belmont. You know, it's one of the great things about this game.....some times I've spent hours handicapping, spent the entire day from noon to well past six with over thirty selections and made about $10. Then there are days like today. Spent about an hour and a half handicapping; had only five picks but had a very successful day! I had a strong play in the opener who was 4/5 in the program, but he scratched out. Thought about playing my second choice, but like is the case often, my second horse I write about is NOT who I think is the second most likely winner. Passed - he didn't win by the way. In the second Cobble Hill was the 6/5 program favorite and was running in a $20K maiden claiming event. Already a seven-time loser he's the type I'll most often avoid. But in here, I liked his chances. First, it caught my eye that DRF analyst Mike Beer who next-to-never likes the favorite had picked both my 4/5 choice in the opener and this 6/5 runner. That carried some weight. Second, I know you can make numbers say anything, but play along.....in his last five starts he'd run two numbers that beat 58 of the 59 numbers in the field. The one that would compete was earned in state-bred company and ALL of Cobble Hill's were earned in OPEN company. What of the other three races? A two-turn turf event, toss; a try vs. MSW runners (open remember), I don't have a problem tossing that; and then a bad try over a muddy track - more tricky but if you toss it you're left with two, dirt sprint tries vs. open maiden claimers that would bury this field. Doubled the bet.....tracked between runners, moved to the outside and into the clear, then drew off.
Sent off at even money I cashed for a little over $20 to start the day. The third race was my "best" of the day. Chad Brown sent out Good Governance in an entry level allowance coming off of a long break dating back to Saratoga last August. But, the Klaravich-owned colt had won on debut despite a wide post with a big 86 figure. Came back first time winners in the Gr 3 Saranac and lost by a mere neck to a runner who exited the win to take another Gr 3 race. If running to anything close to his best, he's the winner. Well, nearly all of Brown's layoff runners at this summer Belmont meet - and especially the Klaravich turf runners - have run big. Tracked while third confidently held by Irad Ortiz. Let him loose at the top of the lane and he was L-O-N-G gone. Went off at 1-2 odds which I thought were more than generous and I cashed for over $20 again....two-for-two.
In the fourth I liked the second choice, Sanity to take down the program's 4/5 favorite. Of the twelve lines of past performances listed for Sanity only four of them were in turf sprints. But they all earned Beyers at the top of the field. And what separated Sanity from the favorite was that all of her turf sprint numbers came in open company while the short priced favorite had run in state-bred events. She's lost for a tag AND her one win showing was in a "beaten" $16K event going five furlongs at Gulfstream. NOT the resume I want for my top choice. Irad Ortiz had been named on my first race pick and on the next two. As I wrote, it is unrealistic to think he'd win all of the first four races, but he looked "live" again here. Well, he didn't win the first four.....because he didn't ride in the opener! Sanity pressed a 50/1 lonogshot from the rail, shot through an opening at the top of the stretch and drew off as the 6/5 second choice.
And AGAIN I cashed for more than $20.....three-for-three :) Passed the fifth and my final play came in the sixth, a maiden special event going a mile on the turf. I always start my handicapping by looking at who should be the favorite and are they legitimate, vulnerable, and/or beatable. Barleewon looked very legitimate in this field. Three weeks ago he beat five of the nine facing him today. And that came when coming off a three month break. Certainly would move forward here. The others were decidedly outsiders. Still, wasn't willing to go "all in," just the minimum. Tracked a 6/1 front runner who went way too fast for the opening half mile (:45 and change), then blew by to win going away.
So for the day I was four-for-five and profited over $35. I'll take that kind of result any day of the week. And I was hopeful that I had some momentum heading into the big Saturday of racing.
I had picks from 1 pm to 6:30 pm from three different venues, including a host of stakes selections. Started off with a third place finish in the Woodbine opener but in the opener at Belmont I liked Sun Summers with Irad Ortiz up in a nw2L turf route. As I commented, if she did NOT run one of her "A" races she was just another runner in here, probably vulnerable at a short price. BUT....last time out she had posted a 73 Beyer which WOULD win today. And that came after an 11-month layoff. So second off the shelf, with a sharp bullet work and Irad taking over. All signaled to me a big effort. Was confidently handled on the rail the top of the lane, moved into the clear by splitting rivals and then drove clear for the win.
Missed again at Woodbine before it was time for the second at Churchill Downs. I had selected Frost or Frippery to win but only planned to bet the minimum on the 8/5 morning line favorite. Typically when a claimer wins you don't like seeing them come back at the same level, they SHOULD move up. But I thought it was clever spotting by trainer Brad Cox that he claimed 'Frost two back and dropped him in for a cheaper tag to win last time out. And today he was running with conditions for the same price tag, but as a "starter" event he was not eligible to be claimed. When I saw how very heavily he was being played in the win pool and the double pools I decided to up the bet. Much like Sun Summers he was very confidently handled and ran away as much the best.
Passed the 2nd in New York, missed at Woodbine and Churchill then passed at both Woodbine and Belmont, so nearly an hour had gone by since I'd won the 2nd in Louisville. The fourth was a maiden special for juveniles. I've not had much success with 2yo races so I am reluctant to bet them, especially races like this where nearly all of them were debut runners. But Whiskey Double was making his first start for Steve Asmussen AND this was the first 2yo race I've seen at six furlongs. This colt was an $875 Million son of top sire Into Mischief and was partially owned by the Winchell group, who partnered with Asmussen to win the Kentucky Oaks with champion Untappable. I thought it significant that the barn had two in here but go-to rider Ricardo Santana was onboard 'Whiskey. He tracked the pace professionally to the top of the lane, engaged the leader and edged clear through the final 16th.
Right back in the fourth at Belmont where Timely Tradition looked clearly best as the morning line favorite. She had been claimed three back by a little known barn but the results were immediate. Drilled $25K NY-bred claimers at Aqueduct then beat $40K starters at Oaklawn. That one saw her blitz through an opening quarter in :21 and change, get collared but fought back and drew off. Her paired Beyers were indicative that she might improve yet again under Joel Rosario. Went right to the front where Rosario backed down the opening quarter to :23 and change, and that was that. Plenty left for the stretch as she drew off handily.
Four wins from my first eight picks and I'm having a good Saturday....and the big races / big bets haven't even been up yet. Passed on the fifth at Woodbine and then came what turned out to be the "Day-Maker." The fifth at Churchill was a MSW event but it was set at a marathon mile and 3/8th on the main track. Very unique distance. Clearly the top two choices on paper were Todd Pletcher's Ashiham and his last race rival Baker's Bay. But I was against BOTH. Why? Ashiham had been the favorite while Baker's Bay had been 19/1 that day. 'Bay had been drawn in post eleven, dueled all the way on the lead and weakened to be third. But despite the post, the race-long duel, and the 19/1 odds, the favorite couldn't catch him. That didn't sound good for EITHER. So I looked elsewhere and landed on third choice Amani's Eagle from the Asmussen barn with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith up. He, unlike the other two was based here, was a new shooter and as a son of champion American Pharoah I thought he'd have no problem with the distance. AND he had a sharp bullet work. I decided to double the bet. When the wagering opened he was 7/1 and cold on the board. I withheld the bet and kept watching. And when his odds didn't come down I began to wonder if I'd been wrong in my analysis. I wavered back and forth, considered dropping the bet and then finally decided "NO, I AM right" and made the bet. Right to the front and wired the field in hand as much, MUCH the best. And the price, oh my, was $14.20 so I cashed for over $70 - whoooo hooooo!
Missed in the sixth at Woodbine. Next up was the sixth at Churchill Downs. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott next to never has them ready first time out. But Paris Lights had run a sharp third on debut. Came right back and scored for fun as the favorite at today's mile and a sixteenth distance with a big 84 Beyer. If he ran two alike, which I thought was very likely, he'd beat this entry level allowance field. Typically this condition is difficult to predict with a wide variety of runners in the field. But the "ideal" kind of win bet is a lightly raced runner on the improve, like Paris Lights. Sent off as the short-priced 3/5 favorite he pressed the leader while under a tight hold until they got to the top of the lane then took off as easily best.
Missed in the next two then a pass in the 7th at Churchill. Now the stakes action began and first up was the Grade 2 Nassau going a mile over the Woodbine turf. And because of the unique configuration of the Toronto track where the turf is on the OUTSIDE, this was a one-turn trip. I thought it interesting that with multiple stakes at BOTH Belmont and Churchill - several on the grass - that the racing secretary at Woodbine had set this race for today. So it came as no surprise to me that there weren't many entered and there also were not any "star" runners. In fact the lone graded stakes winner in the field was Graham Motion's Elizabeth Way who was listed as the 4/1 third choice in a field of six. Most of her races were at far longer distances but I noted that in her first North American start she came off the shelf and won going a mile and a sixteenth, so I was ok with the trip. As the field hit the far turn I was happy with my pick because the co-favorites were on the lead and in mid-pack. Elizabeth Way had been pressing the leader from the outset, and as they turned for home I anticipated her to kick to challenge and take over. But instead it was the 2/1 favorite who kicked clear. The other favorite was no danger and I looked destined to run second. But Woodbine has a L-O-N-G stretch and inside the final 200 yards Elizabeth Way accelerated, heads up and down, PHOTO FINISH!
YES.....and at a big $13.30 payoff too! They had no sooner crossed the finish line than they were loading into the gate for the first of the four graded stakes at Churchill. It was the first two-year-old stakes of the year, the Grade 3 Bashford Manor going six furlongs. Steve Asmussen, again, had a highly touted youngster in Cazadero. He'd run a hole in the wind in his debut, blowing out the competition and earning a field-best 81 Beyer. For a debuting two-year-old, that's a big number. And what was really interesting, AND a big plus in his favor, was oddly the Stonestreet Stable colt was the only runner in the field who retained his maiden-winning rider. I planned to triple the bet but had told myself to watch the board to consider downgrading if someone else got a lot of money. But no, he was pounded on the board. Not a "good bet" considering there was only the maiden race to go on, but then the second best number in the field compared to his 81 Beyer was a 58. Oh. Stalked to the top of the stretch, as asked for run and ran away as much, MUCH the best.
I had contemplated making her the BET of the Day but was afraid of the pace scenario. Obviously that should not have been a concern. I won the next race on the list, the Grade 2 True North at Belmont. And how ironic, and again one of the MANY things I love about racing, that THIS stakes event was the one in New York - and for the day actually - that I had the least confidence in my selection. This six and a half furlong sprint had zero confirmed front runners. And I initially put Promises Fulfilled on top, then switched to Firenze Fire who would press the pace. His numbers were better and I didn't want a pace duel from someone who didn't figure to be on the front end. Then Promises Fulfilled scratched making the pace flow even more sketchy. But with Irad Ortiz up the race ran pretty much as I anticipated. Two that I didn't think had a realistic chance dueled on the front while 'Fire sat comfortably in third. Switched out at the top of the lane and ran off. Easy, peasy pie.
Missed in the finale at Woodbine and then it was time for the BIG RACE, the national feature, the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap from Louisville. Tom's d'Etat was my choice. He'd been a "good" handicap horse as a five-year-old but last year at six he'd blossomed late in the year. After taking the restricted Alydar at Saratoga in the summer he was a close fourth in the Grade 1 Woodward at the Spa. But then he was much the best in Keeneland's Grade 2 Fayette and came right back to get his first Grade 1 when he dominated the Clark Handicap HERE under the Twin Spires. Today's race was at the same nine furlongs as the Fayette and Clark, and 'Tom was a superior 5-for-8 at this trip. He was coming off of a win in the Oaklawn Mile which interestingly had NOT been their target, but their original target race had been scheduled, before the pandemic, on the exact same date and distance at Keeneland. So he was coming into today right on schedule. A lot of people liked the second choice in the field, By My Standards. And you could understand their case. Once he broke his maiden he came right back in his next start to win the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby. Next he was a troubled trip "no show" in the Kentucky Derby. Off until February he won his 2020 debut at the Fair Grounds in an allowance race, then won the Gr 2 New Orleans on La Derby Day there. And most recently won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. That earned him a career best 102 Beyer. But, from the field's 114 combined races there were four triple digit figures, including that 102. By contrast Tom's d'Etat had run SEVEN STRAIGHT 100+ Beyer figures. Uh oh. Tracked the leaders to the turn and just as By My Standards began to close in on him from mid-pack Tom's d'Etat took off and ran away as a visually impressive winner. NICE!
Missed in the last two stakes of the day but finished an excellent 12-for-24 while winning three of the big four graded events in Louisville, and with money in my pocket for the day. YAY ME!
Foster Weekend Highlights
Sunday June 28
Again I debated - like last week - on not playing today. Didn't like the looks of the New York or Kentucky card. Gulfstream looked equally unappealing. Then I noticed Lone Star was running three stakes on their card. Better than not playing I thought. Mixed reviews following the races. On the one hand, I was happy to have something to occupy the afternoon and early evening before going to the airport to pick Kim up. I was disappointed I only had the one winner, but the racing was good and on all but one of the races I had a chance at the top of the lane. The one victory came in the featured Grand Prairie Derby where I took Steve Asmussen's Little Menace. He'd only been out three times, and all in sprints. But a son of top sire Into Mischief he would nearly certainly enjoy the added ground and looked to be the controlling speed. He and the second choice went at it right out of the gate and were heads apart into the far turn. Instead of setting up the closers they opened up on the field and now it was who wanted it more. They dueled to the furlong pole before Little Menace, even though tight on the rail, said "enough of this" and edged clear to win going away.
And so I closed out a good week overall, especially the Friday & Saturday action. This also closed out the first month of summer and my numbers were STELLAR....
"The News" section....
So Monday morning I drove to Cape Coral and was hopeful to get an idea of what we'd be doing for a rental. I had resigned myself to the fact that we would be committing to a month of rent, but balanced that knowing we'd get to see Jeff and our grandsons (as well as Antoinette) for the time being. And it would be easier on my Mom to visit with them knowing we'd be staying locally and not driving across the state and back again on the same day. I'd been working with a realtor, who'd been very helpful, but as I set out Monday all I had was an appointment with the realtor; left messages with four agents; and was going to look at two houses. The first came from the only agent who answered the phone on Sunday and she didn't have the condo I was interested in but had this 3/2 house about ten minutes from the high school. It was great and I'd have signed on the dotted line except I'd been in touch with a guy from Norway who owned a house and I wanted to see it. I'd "met" him via my good gal-pal Anya who lives in Cape Coral. One of her book-club friends had this guy as a neighbor. We met that neighbor and she let us in, and WOW....take a look:
A touch more money than the first house, but so much bigger and more open AND directly on the water, AND a bigger pool and deck. By the end of the day Tuesday I'd signed a lease with "Lars" and we had Face-Timed to "meet" each other. Very happy with the decision and choice.
Within the span of a week I had not one but two exchanges with my online gal-pal from CBS Channel 4. First, on Tuesday of this week my "friend," hottie newscaster Lauren Pastrana posted a video showing her preparing to anchor the news from her garage. I truly was impressed that she was the stage-hand having to set the entire shoot up; was the make-up artist doing all her own make-up, and then the actual news-anchor. So I messaged her to tell her how impressed I was. She replied minutes later, literally just minutes later....
And what I thought was really cool was that she posted this on Facebook at 4:25 pm, less than a half hour before she went on the air as the anchor. I saw it at about ten minutes to air time and three minutes later, literally she had to be sitting at the news desk preparing to go on air, she not only "LIKED" my comment, but took the time to write back. I LIKE being Lauren's friend :) Then on Monday of this week Lauren posted on Twitter a short video clip from the Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. Lauren and I had "talked" about her enjoying the evening shift and not having to get up so early previously, so I commented that it had to be nice for her to actually be up to SEE the Tonight Show....
I so appreciate Lauren and her willingness to reach out and communicate. I want to reach out and see if I might possibly get a studio tour and meet her. That would be amazing :)
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