Maryland Million Weekend

 Saturday October 23

I've said for years that the Fall Championship Season, which for me runs from Labor Day until the first weekend in December when the Gulfstream Championship Meet opens is my "down time" to recharge for the daily handicapping at my favorite track, "GP By The Sea!"  But I don't think there's ever been a fall where I've played less than this one.  To date......I took two weeks off from Labor Day before I had a full day of racing on September 18th.  The weekends of September 25 and October 2 we were on our Puget Sound cruise and I played a dozen races from Parx on the first Saturday and three "locks" on the second Saturday.  October 9-10 it was Opening Weekend at Keeneland and I had only nine picks over the two days of racing.  Took another two weeks off before playing three tracks this weekend.  And since the first weekend in September - no week day selections.  I will be ready to roll when December arrives!

The first "win" of the week came on Wednesday....wait, I thought you said you'd not played during the week since Labor Day.  Indeed I did.  But you see, this was a collection of winnings from a previous score!  One of MY horses, Going To Vegas won the Grade 2 John Mabee at Del Mar in early September.  But instead of collecting our share of the winner's purse, I and my fellow owners were told that the decision had been made to try and run in the Breeders' Cup.  And because Going To Vegas was NOT nominated, the plan was to run back in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive.  A win there, coupled with the win in the Mabee would make enough in earnings to cover entry into the Breeders' Cup World Championships.  But on Wednesday I was notified that Going To Vegas had enough winnings in the latter race to get into the Breeders' Cup, so we'd all be receiving our share of the purse, which for me would be over $15.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

On Saturday, the opener at Laurel it was the first of a dozen consecutive stakes, a few of which - like this one - were starter stakes (like the Claiming Crown at Gulfstream).  This was a nine furlong turf event and if you scanned the past performances it was clear that B Determined was the deserving favorite.  In ten turf starts he'd been in the money in six of them and he'd run at this mile and an eighth distance previously - something most in the field had not (he finished second that time).  Most importantly, his Beyers were a pole faster than anyone else in the field.  On the downside, he seemed to run to his competition as he had only two wins to his credit.  He was 2/5 as they went into the gate, way shorter than he deserved, but as they rounded the first turn onto the backstretch he'd floated up to 6/5 which was a "fair" price.  He trailed the field to far turn, began picking off horses while circling wide and surged to the front inside the sixteenth pole, and held off a flying longshot closer.  Cashed for over $20 to kick off the day.

In the second at Laurel I had the 3/1 third choice.  Ran third, but with the "Money Back Promotion" on all the races at Laurel, it was a "WIN" or at least a cashed ticket.  Passed the third in Maryland, also the Belmont opener and the opener at Keeneland.  Tried my first selection on the new Gulfstream synthetic surface and ran an even fourth in a maiden claiming event around nine furlongs.  Lost my pick in the Laurel fourth when my pick scratched....didn't care for anyone else.  And then I rand 2nd at Belmont in an entry level allowance going seven panels with the 9/5 tepid favorite.  Passed the second at Gulfstream and faded badly to be ninth at 3/1 in the Laurel 5th which was another starter event.  The second at Keeneland was a MSW turf sprint going five and a half furlongs.  The opener I'd passed had seen the short priced Wesley Ward favorite run second.  I'd passed the race "knowing" that people love Ward 2yo maidens at Keeneland, but as I noted in my analysis - those seem to run best at the Spring Meet, not in the fall.  But I'd no sooner written that than in this spot I DID like a Ward 2yo maiden.  Well, just goes to prove that "the rule" in handicapping is that there are NO rules!  To be fair, unlike the opener where the Ward runner was a first time starter, here Top Gun Girl had already been out.  In his debut he had dueled from gate to wire and lost a head-bobbing decision while earning a Beyer figure that matched the par for this level of competition AND was a pole faster than anyone else in the field.  The even money morning line stood as testament to his obvious advantage on paper.  Sent off as the 1-2 choice he went right to the front, dueled to the top of the far turn and then ran away as much, MUCH the best.

The third race at Belmont was another maiden turf sprint for juveniles, this one for fillies.  Christophe Clement had sent out Lia Marina at Saratoga and she completely missed the break to start last.  But she came flying for third....promising.  The good news was that since then she'd breezed three times on the turf.  The bad news was that all three works were S-L-O-W.  Hmmmm.  Went with the pick thinking that the added ground (today was at 6f) would give Joel Rosario a better shot at the winner's circle.  She tracked the leaders while between runners.  Collared the 30/1 front runner, dueled through the stretch and finally edged clear late.

Ran third in a 2yo stakes event at Gulfstream, which was the first EVER stakes event to be held over their new all-weather track.  And then I had my first "upped the bet" pick in the Maryland Million Turf Sprint going five and half furlongs over the inner course.  I anticipated Grateful Bred to be odds on at post time as he'd earned six straight Beyer figures between 84 and 89 - all good enough to win today - and had "paired figures in his last two (88-89) which were indicative of a big effort today.  He had won four-of-eight sprinting on the grass and his outside draw meant, that while he might be wide, he'd be out of trouble throughout.  Burst out of the gate, found himself in front and was long, LONG gone as easily the best.  Cashed for over $20 with my triple investment.

After passing both the third at Keeneland and the fourth at Belmont, Todd Pletcher's Amani's Image was a disappointing second best as the 6/5 favorite in a Gulfstream maiden event going a one-turn mile.  That led to the BET of the Day was the Maryland Million Distaff with Hello Beautiful.  I could go on and on about her advantages but the two to share here that were most relevant:  Hello Beautiful was 8-for-9 at Laurel with the lone loss in an OPEN/Graded stakes; and her LAST THREE Beyer figures beat all 74 combined lifetime figures earned by the rest of the field.  Add in that she was the obvious front runner and you could see why she was destined to be a very short price.  I originally planned to play for $40, but just thought as they approached the gate she was a "sure thing," so I upped the bet to $50 TO WIN.  Right to the front and was never, ever threatened.  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Over the next 90 minutes I had three minimum bets and six "PASS" races.  Ran third, 6th and 8th with those minimum bet selections.  After running 9th in another minimum bet event at Belmont it was time for the Maryland Million Sprint.  Double Crown was the 4/5 favorite but trailed the field early.  Rallied late and passed all but the daylight winner.  But...with the second place finish, I "cashed" again thanks to the "money back promotion."  Passed at GP, faded to 9th at 3/1 in the first stakes event at Keeneland and was second, again - this time at Belmont in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel when High Opinion could not run down the winner late.  In the Maryland Million Classic, much like the sprint, I had the odds-on choice in Tappin Cat only to see him run second again.  A "need to lead" type he had drawn wide and never got to the front.  But, like the Sprint, the in-the-money finish was another "cash" even for me thanks to the promotion being run.  FIVE straight out of the money efforts - with two "PASS" races in the time frame completed a three hour skid for the day.  But, I had two races left to close out the day.  When handicapping the Gulfstream card and I saw that the finale was a non-winners of two lifetime on the all-weather I almost just wrote "not interested," but I looked through the field.  Riveting Spirit caught my eye and then I read the stat that trainer David Fawkes - who was off to a sizzling start with eight wins from eighteen starters (over 40%) had won with SIX-of-TEN starters on the synthetic surface.  He'd obviously found something that worked!  So I doubled the bet on this runner.  Last into the far turn, then began circling the field picking off horses one by one.  At the eighth pole he'd drawn on even terms with the leaders and then drew off as much the best.  Cashed for nearly $25 to end the skid.

"Cashed" Three Tickets Thanks To The Money-Back Promotion :)

And with that win I had my first cashed ticket on the GP synthetic track.  It was my observation - at least today - that the surface was fair.  Front runners that should have run well, did.  Pace pressers that should have run well had every chance.  And late runners, like Riveting Spirit also had a fair race track to run on.  Down to the final pick of the day, in the Keeneland finale.  And I came right back with another winner.  This time at a generous 4/1 price.  Santin was the DRF "BEST Bet" of the day and considering that this was an allowance turf event and that the colt was exiting a maiden debut win at Indiana Grande there'd better be some solid evidence to support this.  The running line seemed to point out he must have had some ability as he closed through very pedestrian splits going two turns - something that's not easy even with a good pace set-up - and won going away.  Could he translate that kind of maiden form at "the big track" while facing winners?  He was well off the pace into the far turn but when asked accelerated visually and swept by them all while at least six wide and blew by the leaders in mid stretch to win going away.  Wish I'd have doubled the bet so I'd have doubled the winnings, but still collected nearly $30 on the final play on just a minimum bet.

I decided to check out the entries for the Sunday races and see if I could sneak in some "mortal locks" to "pad my stats" for the weekend and I found four that I liked.  Read what the local/online handicappers said and went with three of them.  I won the first two; missed by a nose with the third; and the one at Santa Anita I passed on won as well.  Still, I'll take the 2-for-3 afternoon which produced a flat profit - small, I'll grant you, but in the black!

1st Bonus Bet:  Miles D RUNS AWAY in the Keeneland Opener

2nd Bonus Bet:  Miles D JUST UP IN TIME in Belmont 4th

Not exactly how you want a prohibitive favorite to score :)

Social Media Friends

It was a big week of connecting with my social media gal-pals.  Our very own Florida Panthers kicked off their 2021-22 season with most loyal fans, like us, hoping this might be THE YEAR that we make a run for the Stanley Cup.  On Opening Night Kim and I were in our seats as the 'Cats roared back from a 2-4 deficit in the third period to win 5-4 in overtime in dramatic fashion.

And early in the night two of my gal-pals, Jessica Blaylock and Katie Gaus posted a "we're back" photo to which I replied we were there as well and they both reacted to my posting.

That weekend we went to Orlando and spent time with Brad and his family, and I enjoyed watching the Panthers win their second game with my son.....and with his son as well.

The next Monday was the start of Homecoming and Spirit Week at my old high school, Cypress Bay and my very good friend, and current principal Kassandra posted a photo of it being "Hippie Day" to which I replied and she reacted.

The following day two of my girls had big "life events."  Madi, who'd served as our top manager at Oasis High last fall turned 18 and I wished her a happy birthday.  And Michelle - a former WISE student turned airline attendant for Delta Airlines - got engaged, to which I sent my congrats.

I had back to back "conversations" with my most favorite anchor, Lauren Pastrana on the next day.  First with her selfie where she reflected on her short stature and then on a post from Lissette Gonzalez who usually does the morning weather, but was reunited with Lauren for the evening broadcasts this week.

On Wednesday of that week I saw a story on the CBS-4 News and online about Royal Caribbean launching a 275 day "Around The World" Cruise with staterooms starting at "just $64,000."  So I reached out to my most favorite of favorite former students, Kimmy - who just had a baby girl about a month ago - and we had a nice long conversation (FYI - she can get me 20% off the cruise so it would only be a little more than $50K each for Kim and I to go - uh, no).  That night we were back at the Panthers game at FLA Live Arena and our girl Katie was on the big jumbo-tron, so I reached out to her and got a reaction.

On Thursday the announcer from Gulfstream Park, "Announcer Pete" put out a video about a handicapping charity contest he was in and I reached out to him and got his reaction.  And then that evening I had two more conversations with my adorable announcer pal, Lauren.  First in response to my reaction to her and Lissette sporting pink for Breast Cancer Awareness; and then Lauren herself did a spot on our Florida Panthers which led to another exchange :)

Finally later Friday night I caught up with my other most favorite anchor gal-pal, Karli Barnett.  I'd noticed she'd not been around lately and wondered why.  Well she herself provided the answer in her picture posts....she was enjoying a European vacation in Barcelona.  Kim and I were there three years ago, and saw toured the exact cathedral Karli was visiting.  Very cool.  Of course I had to tell her and she replied back.  What a "social butterfly" I am in the virtual world, eh?

And finally, on Sunday, my good friend Jeff Nelson's adult daughter Chloe - who has become a budding DJ superstar in Georgia - posted a photo upon her return to visit friends in Nashville....and we exchanged comments :)  She is so cute.

Keeneland Opens Fall Meet

 Week of October 3-10

The Keeneland Fall Meet opened with "FallStars Weekend" and the host of big stakes events which nearly all serve as preps for the Breeders' Cup.  And so before heading over to Cape Coral to see one of our oldest son's high school games I handicapped the Saturday card and had eight picks on the day.  In the opener I liked Golden Bear in a two-turn maiden claimer.  Pressed the pace in third to the far turn and stopped to finish ninth at 6/1.  In the second, a 2yo MSW sprint I was torn between a Steve Asmussen first timer and a Brad Cox second time starter.  That one, Kaely's Brother had finished a nondescript 6th beaten a little more than nine lengths as the tepid 3/1 choice in an Ellis Park debut.  None of that is material worth recommendation my friend.  But hang on a tic.....he was "bounced around at the start" and ran evenly during the race.  Second, the top two in the field finished SEVEN clear of everyone else so Kaely was only two lengths out of hitting the board, with trouble.  And finally, since then he'd worked a bullet over the Keeneland strip.  With second start improvement I thought he looked best and wanted to see how the crowd played the Asmussen runner.  BUT, we were in the car heading back home with the race went off so I had to go with the initial bet.  He was stalking in fourth around the far turn, made a 4-wide bid to the front, cleared and then held off the closers to score as the 3/2 choice.

Ran third in back-to-back races at 9/2 and then 7/1 before the stakes action started.  The 6th at Keeneland was the Grade 2 Woodford Stakes, a five and a half furlong turf sprint.  Golden Pal was the 4/5 morning line favorite and I'd tabbed him at Saratoga.  While watching the pre-race analysis on America's Day At The Races they had interviewed trainer Wesley Ward and he commented that this guy was "the best horse" he'd ever trained.  WOW.  And he looked the part that day.  Off of that win in a Gr 3 he'd been sent to Europe for a Group race and finished close, but out of the money.  IF that trip did not take too much out of him he looked much the best in here.  The bullet work over the turf here last week eased any qualms about readiness and I made him the BET of the Day.  Right to the front, and appeared to be in hand under Johnny Velazquez to the far turn, but entering the stretch he was collared by the third choice and I had that "Uh oh" moment.  But Velazquez had saved something and when asked, Golden Pal spurted away to draw off handily.

The $3 payoff was generous I thought and I cashed for $30.  Next up was the Grade 2 TCA Stakes for older female sprinters.  Belle's The One is a Churchill Downs sprint specialist, though to be fair, she's also won a couple of races outside of Louisville.  But last time out I'd bet her and she'd just missed there while closing quickly.  I noted that at this six furlong trip, she was at her best.  And with the open-air outside box draw I thought she'd have a clean trip.  The field broke away and quickly three of them went to the front setting the table for my top choice.  She was quickly multiple lengths behind, more so than I expected, but as the field neared the far turn she noticeably quickened.  She glided up to challenge for the lead into the lane and got her head in front with a furlong to go.  It had seemed to me that she moved too early and with a sixteenth to go the 14/1 longshot began to gobble up ground.  But the wire came first and I had my third winner on the day.

Missed on the last two, both Grade 1 events, but both minimum investments.  In the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity for 2yo going a mile and a sixteenth my pick, Todd Pletcher's Double Thunder was a sharp second at a big 7/1 - oh that would have been nice.  And then Order of Australia - who'd upset the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile last fall here at a big price, ran like a big price instead of the 6/5 favorite he was today when 12th of 12 in the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile.  Sunday there was more racing action from Keeneland but I didn't want to handicap for the day and honestly didn't have time.  But I had read that current Breeders' Cup Distaff favorite Latruska was running in the Grade 1 Spinster on this day.  I read hottie handicapper Gabby Gaudet's analysis of the race and Latruska seemed even more formidable when Gabby noted she was the lone speed.  I have NEVER felt like she was nearly as good as she is given credit for.  I bet with her in a win at Churchill this summer and that race, like this one seemed light for the level of competition.  As she skipped away to the easiest of leads while watching the race I said to my buddy Keith (who's staying with us now for a while), "She's going to win today but the best part is she'll be way too short a price in the Breeders' Cup and we'll get good value on someone else because I WON'T be betting her that day."   She won by four lengths officially but if you watch the replay that was an awfully "close" four lengths and she seemed to be working hard to hold the lead over these overmatched foes.  Still, got the win and finished a nice 4-for-9 for the weekend.

This week's other news and photos.....

Ready for our ELEVENTH Viking cruise in Eastern Europe in a month!

While in SW Florida, after the game Keith and I joined Jeff to re-hash the game at the local bar which we'd frequented many times last fall, the Big 10 Tavern.  We caught up with "our girl" Morgan who always remembered us (and still does to this day) and met a new cutie - Bailey - as we stayed up way too late for our age :)

Hottie Bailey (blonde) on left, "our girl" Morgan (brunette) on the far right

During the week I had several "conversations" with my Twitter gal-pal, CBS weekend anchor Karli Barnett.  The most fun of which was when Texas A&M kicked a field goal as time expired to knock Alabama out of the top spot and make room for her alma mater, the Georgia Bulldogs to assume the top spot.  Note that I messaged her as the ball sailed through the uprights at 11:49 and she immediately replied from the anchor desk at 11:50 :)

Karli on the anchor desk early in the week

Karli's Dawgs win as she preps for the Saturday late night sting

The upset was on - somebody's a happy Georgia Bulldog fan

And on Sunday, Karli posted regarding mental health, and I commented and she responded.  An important issue to be sure.

Party on Pirate-Karli :)

Puget Sound Cruising Race Report

September 24 - October 2 

Check out our online cruise page to see all the photos and read the stories of our trip HERE

On Friday September 24 Kim and I flew out of Fort Lauderdale International bound for Seattle to meet our great friends Mary Pat & Tom and Pam & Bob for an American Cruise Lines sailing adventure through the Pacific Northwest in the Puget Sound.  While we were on our trip two big racing Saturdays came and went.  The day we were in Seattle and boarded our ship it was Pennsylvania Derby Day.  Prior to our departure from home I'd handicapped the card and had selections all day at Parx and one "gimme" pick from Belmont.  The winning action started off in the third in Philadelphia in a starter allowance where Sevier was the 4/5 choice in the program.  Left the gate as a deserving 2/5 favorite and waltzed home for victory number one on the afternoon.

The only race NOT from Parx I played was the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap going a one-turn mile at Belmont.  Here Life Is Good was the prohibitive 1/5 program choice in a short field of four and he went off at 1/9.  The Bob Baffert 3yo had suffered his first defeat last time out going 7f at Saratoga in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens to current 3yo sprint champion Jackie's Warrior in an epic stretch duel.  He went right to the front under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith and was easily, EASILY the best.

Race 6 from Parx was the Plum Pretty Stakes around two turns and Chub Wagon was trying a two turn route for the first time today.  IF she could handle the trip she would be the winner.  It was close but she held on to score.

Silver State looked clear and gone in the stretch in the Parx Dirt Mile only to be caught on the line.  Missed in the next two stakes at Parx before it was time for my BET of the Day in the Grade 2 Gallant Bob, a six furlong sprint for sophomores.  And here the aforementioned Jackie's Warrior was the deserving short priced favorite.  He made very short work of the field and scored without taking a deep breath.

Closed out the first racing Saturday of the cruise adventure when You Must Chill surged through the final furlong over the Parx turf to capture the Alphabet Soup Stakes.  On Saturday October 2 we were scheduled to depart the ship at 8 am and our flight was at 12:50 pm.  Of course these were Pacific Standard Time, so it was only an hour from first post on the east coast.  I'd looked over the entries for all the major stakes races that would serve as final preps for many Breeders' Cup races and at first glance came up with eight horses I thought were very likely winners.  Because I anticipated being in the air and unable to watch and wager at the time of the races I made the decision to only play the horses I was CONVINCED would win.  I made the three bets before we left for the airport in Seattle and I was pretty certain - because we had a narrow time window between flights in Dallas - that I'd watch the three replays once we returned home late that night.  We landed in Dallas about twenty minutes early so as we taxied towards the gate I opened up my Xpressbet.com app and watched the replay of the Grade 3 Lucas Classic from Churchill Downs.  Multiple Grade 1 winning Knicks Go was EASILY the best horse on paper, but unfortunately for everyone else he was also the LONE SPEED.  Right to the front and went wire-to-wire without breaking a sweat.  

By now the plane SHOULD have been at the gate but we were told there was another plane at our gate and we'd have to wait on the tarmac for "less than ten minutes."  OK - I've heard this before!!!  When we landed in Seattle they'd said that and we waited nearly an hour.  Good thing we were early because with each passing moment it became more and more anxious for us to catch our connecting flight home.  But from a racing perspective I now had time to open up Race 3 from Santa Anita, the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile where Mo Forza looked to earn a trip to the Breeders' Cup Mile on the grass.  As they hit the far turn he was still towards the back, but I know he's a late runner and NEVER wins by a big margin.  In a perfectly timed ride he struck the front less than 50 yards out and edged to victory on the wire.  Whoooo hoooo, two for two.

Had we moved towards the gate yet?  NOPE.  It was nine minutes to post time for Race 9 at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive going a mile and a quarter on the grass.  This was a KEY race for MY horse Going To Vegas.  When she'd won the Grade 2 John Mabee a month ago I - and my fellow owners - were told that the target next was this Grade 1 which was a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" event with the hopes of getting Going To Vegas into the World Championships.  If she didn't win or the managers felt it wasn't a good fit, they'd disburse the winnings from both races to the shareholders.  BUT if she won both, the plan was to utilize the winnings to get into the field.

The day before, on Friday, I'd received an email from MyRacehorse.com with a video analysis of the race and both of the analysts agreed, with her natural speed Going To Vegas - who liked to be up front and pressing the leader - probably would be loose on the lead.  That made me up the bet from a double to a triple investment.  Sure enough, jockey Umberto Rispoli sent the mare right to the front and she settled into an easy gait with a daylight lead.  She was clear into the lane when her stablemate, a Euro import making her second North American start with top So Cal rider Flavian Prat on board began to make her move.  Going to Vegas had enough to hold on, and now we're Breeders' Cup bound!  While on the cruising adventure I'd bet fifteen races and won EIGHT of them :)  That's 53% for those of you without a calculator handy!

Puget Sound Cruise Racing Highlights

When we returned from the trip, it was about 10 pm and I reached out to normal CBS-4 weekend anchor Karli Barnett and asked if she'd be on tonight, I'd missed seeing her while away on a trip.  As it turns out she too had been away.  This marked the first time one of my "anchor girls" and I had had an online "conversation" that was NOT based off of a posting they had sent out.  It made me happy :)