June 3 - 5
Oh the highs are so high and the lows are so low in this game. To be fair, my share of lows have been few and far between, so in a way Saturday's "come back to reality" results were a good thing to remind me to never take it for granted that this game is an easy one to beat. The week started off in an excellent fashion as I contacted "my guy" at Twin Spires who'd coaxed me into switching back to that betting platform. He'd told me that if I hit a certain wagering level in a month I'd receive a $50 bonus, and I had in May. He wrote back and said it had been added to my account. WHOOO HOOO free money!
After a slow day on the Jersey Shore where I won just one-of-five races, it was time for the big Penn Mile card to begin. One thing I've learned over the last several years is that (a) there's always tomorrow with more racing to handicap and wager on, and (b) with that in mind, avoid the cheap races where the rule of thumb is inconsistency! So when I opened the form to find the first race at Penn National was a cheap $6.25K sprint for restricted non-winners of a race in six months I initially thought it would be an immediate "PASS" for me. Not so fast my friend! Bigmanican was the ONLY runner in the field who had run to the Beyer par for this level of racing. In addition he fit the nw1Y conditions by being out only four times in 2022. OK.....he was a perfect 6-for-6 in the money in 2021 with half of those starts resulting in wins, and finally, he loved this track with a local record of 8/4-1-1. Looked to sit the ideal trip before running by to score. EXACTLY what happened as he crossed the wire first as the 6/5 favorite.
Ran 4th and 2nd in the next two - the latter, the first of six consecutive stakes, with the 3/5 favorite who could not run down a 10/1 front runner....wow. The fourth was the With Anticipation Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I could understand if you wanted to try and beat the favorite, but way WAY too many angles in favor of Buy Land and Sea for me to pass him by. First, he had national big time rider Flavian Prat. Second, he was third off the bench - typically a break-out effort and had "paired" figures in his last two - also typically a harbinger of a big step forward. On the page there were several numbers from rivals that were competitive with his figures, BUT if you filtered out all but the turf races on the page, 'Buy's last two turf numbers beat the combined 72 turf Beyers of his rivals today. Oh. AND he was a stakes winner already. OH. To be fair he'd not won since July 2020, oh wait, that's not good. Still.....tripled the bet. Right to the front, got a challenge on the far turn, looked at that rival and said, "not today my friend" and kicked clear to win by daylight :)
The fifth was the BET of the Night for me in the Penn Oaks for 3yo fillies. Last Saturday in Belmont's Grade 3 Soaring Softly I'd made Chad Brown's Haughty my top picks but she scratched out and was in this apparently softer spot. She crossed the wire first in both of her two initial starts then rallied from post 11 in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf to be third beaten less than a length to close out her 2yo season. The winner of that BC race was Pizza Bianca, who - if you read my posts - was my BEST BET on Black Eyed Susan Friday two weeks ago, and she'd won for fun. Flavian Prat was looking for his second stakes score here. Tracked on the rail in fourth behind a 60/1 front runner to the far turn, edged off the rail and split rivals to come after the leader turning for home. Floated some eight or more wide into the lane but had all the momentum and ran by to win by daylight under a hand ride!
Two-for-two in the stakes races! The Grade 2 Penn Mile for 3yo colts was next and though Todd Pletcher's Annapolis was undefeated I wasn't as confident in him as I'd been in Haughty. Tracked the 80-1 front runner into the lane and then "everyone knew" he would drive on by....until he didn't! Lost by about a quarter of a length in a massive upset. WOW. But in my final bet of the day I came back with Bazinga C in the 6 furlong New Start Stakes for three-year-olds. I thought it was a pretty wide open affair and I did wonder about my choice running six furlongs here after running in two route races around two turns and an elongated 7 furlong dash in his last three. BUT....he'd won all three of those, had won sprinting six furlongs before, had won HERE before, and had the best figures. Tracked the three leaders through the far turn then swung five wide to draw on even terms and edged clear in the final sixteenth to give me my fourth winner on the night, three in stakes company.
Saturday, I thought, would be a great day. I had what I thought were some good picks from both Laurel and Belmont; Churchill had SIX stakes races on "Stephen Foster Preview Day;" and at Monmouth, it looked like Paco Lopez was going to have a banner day. Then after all that we'd have Louisiana Legends Night at Evangeline Park under the lights. Well, as I said in the intro, I got a rude reminder that picking winners in thoroughbred racing is difficult, much more so than you'd think if you simply followed my Facebook postings. From a little after noon until 5pm I had two, count them...TWO wins and BOTH with the minimum bet I play. WOW. Two of the stakes events at Churchill were typical of the skid. Chad Brown's McKullick had won at first asking at Saratoga on the turf and then was a just miss second in a pair of graded stakes. Faced a small field which all looked a cut below. Rallied on the turn but the 5/2 winner skipped through on the rail and McKullick could not catch her with my prime time bet going down the drain. Later in the Shawnee Stakes my BEST of the Day was Pauline's Pearl. She'd beaten my top choice in the Grade 1 La Trionne on the Derby undercard. So here she was dropping out of a $400K Grade 1 into a listed $100K. EASY.....I could tell as they hit the far turn and she was asked to accelerate that this was not going to be easy. She was slowly gaining but at the furlong pole she hung and faded to fourth while a big longshot rolled home. Even the trainer in the post race interview was so surprised. Sigh....and so it went. Finally a little after 5 pm I scored in Belmont's feature, the Pennine Ridge for 3yo on the turf with Todd Pletcher's Emmanuel. He'd never been on the turf but he'd run very strongly in stakes events, so much so he was at one time considered a Derby colt. The field was mediocre at best and if Mr. Todd said he could grass, good enough for me. Right to the front and never looked back.
The tenth at Churchill Downs was the Blame Stakes and I took Pletcher's Grade 1 winner American Revolution. Flattened out in mid-stretch when his 7/1 stablemate blew by to win, and to add insult to injury this was the only race of the day with a "Bet Back" promotion if you didn't win but ran 2nd or 3rd. Faded to fourth. Figures. Moving on to Evangeline Downs and the Louisiana Legends card, let's get something going here. The third was the La Legends Soiree for 3yo fillies. Free Like A Girl looked to be odds on and deservedly so. She was dropping out of a good 4th in Oaklawn's Gr 3 Honey Bee, which was won by Secret Oath who won the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks - oh. Prior to that she'd won five of seven, all in stakes. Two-for-two here in St. Landry Parish and also unbeaten at this two-turn mile trip. Pressed the leader into the turn, took over and opened up. Seemed to tire late but the wire came before the fast closing runner-up could get closer than a length from her. Tripled the bet - and good for me to NOT back off but keep firing!!
After third as the 6/5 favorite in the 3yo version of that race - with a minimum bet - it was time for the La Legends Turf Distaff. My first inclination was to look to beat the likely favorite Net A Bear. But upon closer examination, that would be an unlikely thing to do. In her last nine tries she won six times, all in stakes. But here's the thing, on the turf she won all four starts. And in fact you had to maybe wonder what the connections were thinking because on dirt she was only 4-for-21, ouch...but on turf she was an excellent 7-for-12. I can tell you if I were the owner I'd be saying we'll run on grass thank you very much. Net A Bear had trouble on the turn and got shuffled back to last, that's not good, but came running outside in the clear, still last at the top of the lane. At the furlong pole it looked doubtful but they she shifted into a whole other gear and blew by drawing off in the end. IMPRESSIVE - and with another triple investment on board.
My BET of the Night scratched out of the Mademoiselle and so next up was the La Legends Sprint. Bertie's Galaxy looked like a wire-to-wire candidate but if others insisted on the front he could rate. He'd won five of his last seven starts with excuses in the two losses. Got to the front without a lot of trouble, was challenged at the top of the stretch but spurted clear again determinedly and was open lengths in front in the end.
So after the miserable afternoon I'd won four of my last eight and three of five at Evangeline. I'm ok with that, and lesson learned to appreciate every "good day" I have from here on out! So many times Sunday racing is a let down from Saturday and I had to wonder if today would be a continuation of the way things had gone on Saturday. Especially of concern was that typically the main man at Monmouth, Paco Lopez didn't seem to have the same "magic" this summer. I wrote in my analysis that today he looked to be on many "obvious" winners and I'd give him one more chance to show his old stuff. Good thing - what a day! In the opener he was on Free To Fly who if patiently handled without dueling on the lead had numbers that with rare exception would beat this group handily. Paco stalked the leaders in third to the far turn, saw a VERY narrow opening on the rail and slid through. Three across the track turning for home before he opened her up and she drew off in hand by daylight.
In Race 2 top North American trainer Todd Pletcher had two in the gate. Paco was on second time starter Be Better, a son of champion Uncle Mo. Here's the thing for those who do NOT know....Pletcher is excellent with first timers (especially at GP in the winter and with 2yo at Saratoga). But did you know he's even better with second time maiden starters! Yes, 26% to 18%. The 69 Beyer that Be Better had earned in his debut would beat everything on the page and he had bullet works at Saratoga in his holster for today. Was third spinning out of the turn, split horses and began to wear down the leader. Was a half length back at the furlong pole, on even terms at the 16th pole and edged clear in the shadow of the wire with my double investment on board!
In the third, truth be told I did NOT like Paco's mount R Love On The Run. But here was my logic, I DID like the first two Paco favorites and I knew that if I didn't bet this one he'd win. I was surprised that Monmouth analyst Brad Free, who rarely likes the favorite, thought this one was tons the best. Right to the front as the 4/5 favorite and was never threatened.
Didn't like anyone in the fourth - and wouldn't you know it, Paco won his fourth in a row at 6/5. OK, the "old Paco" is back! The fifth was my "Best" of the Day, again with Paco on the likely favorite, Edie Meeny Miny Moe - props to the connections on the name, clever. I could see why you'd want to try to beat this one. She'd won her debut then ran competitively in back-to-back graded stakes before a layoff. Came back at odds on and didn't get it done. Uh oh. But today, if right she'd dominate. Sent right to the front she took pressure into the turn. Paco let out a notch and she spurted clear with a burst. Then the second choice began to rally and I wondered how much we had in the tank, would she falter yet again. But then, what you love to see at Monmouth......the "Paco condescending look back." He has this "way" of looking back with a "like you really think you can catch me?" demeanor. Gave it the look and I thought, oh we're home free! Held an open length margin under a hand ride all the way to the wire!
WOW! In the sixth, despite Lopez having won every race on the card so far, it was a mortal lock that Paco would not win - THIS was the time to NOT go with Paco......because he didn't have a mount :) Quackity Quack along the railroad track LOL. I did like Bikini Babe. She debuted in a turf sprint then went to the shelf for EIGHT MONTHS. Came back to run on the dirt last time. And broke slowly. Despite all that she was flying at the finish to be beaten a head while four clear of the rest of the field. Normally I do not like this situation but today the fact that the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th place finishers from that race were back made her look awfully good. The other two did not look legitimate threats to me. She was third but about five off the leaders turning for home. She was gaining, but was still two lengths back at the furlong pole.....gaining but still a half length back with a sixteenth to go.....on even terms with 100 yards to go....UP IN TIME!
What a day, five-for-five and even though I was second with Paco up beaten a head in the final strides of the last bet on the day I was thrilled with the bounce-back day. AND if you looked at my records sheet, after the miserable start to the day Saturday I'd now won seven of my last eleven selections!
Penn Mile Weekend Highlights
My social media friends.....
On Wednesday when I turned on the evening news I was delighted to find "my weekend gal-pal anchor" Karli Barnett sharing the desk with my "regular gal-pal anchor" Lauren Pastrana. Reached out to them and Karli answered me back (as she always does, by name, while on the air!)
One of my most favorite former students, and now Delta Airlines flight attendant, Michelle posted she was in Paris. I asked her to take notes for our next July trip there....
On Thursday Channel 10 morning news anchor Jacey Birch had on a simple outfit that I thought really suited her well....
With the end of the school year here it's graduation time and teachers & admin - like the kids - are anxious for summer vacation. From my days at Oasis High I reached out to principal Christy Britton who has to be THE most attractive administrator I ever worked for....
Also from the Oasis days, our manager/resident drone pilot Maddie McKenna graduated this spring. I reached out to her and invited her, again, to come over to see us.
Lastly, the weekly Facebook "LIVE" chat with Karli Barnett was moved to Sunday this week. I hopped on and had three exchanges with her. I appreciated that she'd said "good night" to everyone and then I saw her look down and saw my post/question and she stayed on the air to answer. I asked her in that final exchange if she'd be sharing the anchor desk with Lauren this week. The next morning I reached out to Karli through personal message and wanted to make sure that it was HER that I was anxious to see on the news desk (though we love our Lauren) - and, as always, Karli responded to me in a personal message for soon after I'd reached out to her :)
