Back From Egypt: BC Preview Part 1

 September 30/October 1

After an EPIC adventure to ancient Egypt, having our own "Death On The Nile" river cruise experience (sans the death part) and visiting Jordan to explore the Lost City of Petra, I was back in time to play the Breeders' Cup Preview weekend races where I had selections at Belmont at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Laurel Park, and Santa Anita.  The racing turned out to me NEARLY as epic as the cruise adventure!  When I handicapped for the weekend I intended to just play on Saturday and had several bets in New York.  But Friday the area had torrential rains that flooded the city and so racing was called off for Saturday with the card moved to Sunday.  This pushed back my first bets until after 2pm, giving me time to watch some college football before the racing began.  I ran third and then second twice in my first three selections before hitting the winners' circle.  In the sixth at Laurel it was the first of their multiple stakes, this one the Selima for juveniles going two turns on the turf.  All of them were lightly raced with but a maiden win.  Brocknardini had been outrun in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine last time out off of a maiden debut win at Saratoga.  I was willing to toss that try as he dropped in against listed foes.  A run back to the initial start would easily score.  But as they moved through the far turn and he was at the back of the pack it seemed like he was not running that race.  Then the rider moved his hands and the colt circled the field, moved five wide into the lane, STILL at the back, but cleared all of his rivals by the time they hit the 16th pole and widened the margin to nearly two lengths under the wire.  Impressive for the first winner of the day.

The next race, nearly 45 minutes later, came from Louisville, a second level allowance sprint.  No one in the field looked like they had a clear advantage but if you were willing to toss the last for Your So Sillea, which came off the layoff AND in the mud at Ellis Park, then his previous tries were all good enough to beat these.  I was concerned about his 12/2-5-0 lifetime record so I only bet the minimum.  Burst out of the gate and quickly was clear.  Never threatened, never looked back.  Two in a row!

The next selection saw me back in Maryland for the Japan Turf Cup, a marathon race going a mile and a half.  Trainer Mike Maker seems to ALWAYS have the top contender in any turf marathon race around the country, and his Yamato looked best to me.  Two back and three back he ran very competitively against graded foes so on the drop today I expected a sharp effort.  Mid-pack to the far turn he began his move but was shut off and checked sharply.  Sigh, there goes his chances I thought.  But within a few strides he was back in full flight pursuit of the leaders.  Swept up three wide into the lane and drew off to score handily!  THREE in a row :)

The eighth race under the Twin Spires in Louisville was the first of four straight stakes events in Kentucky.  This was the Jefferson Cup for 3yo on the turf.  There were three rivals who had speed figures that said they would be competitive with Cherie Devaux's More Than Looks, but he CLEARLY was the class of the field.  In four starts on the grass he had two wins, a photo finish 2nd and a third.  The photo came in his first try vs. winners and going long; the 3rd came in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga where he was beaten by talented Carl Spackler, and only by three lengths.  The two wins included a score in the Grade 3 Manilla in New York.  Much like the first winner today he was well, WELL back heading into the turn and announcer Trevor Stone even called at the top of the stretch he was "hopelessly out of it" turning for home.  Then he accelerated and just blew by his rivals to win going away.  AND I'd tripled the bet on this one!  WHOOOO HOOOO - four in a row :)

The 9th at Laurel was the Twixt Stakes and as you scanned the past performances about the ONLY reason you'd have to NOT bet on Brad Cox's Interstatedaydreams was that she seemingly was TOO GOOD to be running in this listed event.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner with a decided edge in speed figures.  Hard to imagine she would not score and she was hammered at the windows as if she would run to her advantage.  Like earlier winners I found the odds-on favorite at the back into the far turn.  Began weaving through traffic, swung five wide into the lane and blew by handily to justify the very short price and provided me with the FIFTH WIN in a row.  Oh I'm having a good day in my return to racing!

The ninth at Churchill was the Grade 3 Ack Ack going a one-turn mile.  I'd scored with Brad Cox's Zozos before and knew he was talented.  You might wonder about his fading fourth last time at a short price but for me I tossed it.  This one-turn configuration seemed ideal for him and best of all he looked like the lone speed.  Right to the front and if you were not used to watching races you might have thought he was being pressured by two longshots all the way to the turn.  But though the margin of his lead was small, the rider seemed very confident.  When he asked him to open up he easily widened on the field.  Got a little tired nearing the wire, but was never threatened as I rattled off my SIXTH winner in a row.

As the adage goes, "you can't win them all," and in spite of the fact that when I make a selection I fully EXPECT to win, I know that winning at a 35% clip - which is my average over 30,000 races - is a very big winning percent.  So sitting at six-for-nine at this point you knew it had to end at some point.  I was off the board in three straight before getting back into the WIN column in back-to-back picks at Santa Anita.  The fourth out west was a MSW dash and was DRF analyst Brad Free's BEST Bet of the Day.  Those picks win at a high rate and Trejon Pass was no exception.  Followed that up by a thrilling win when Dr. Schivel made the front turning for home in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship.  But his best win alternative rival came to him strongly with all the momentum at the furlong pole but the good Doctor would NOT let him by!

Ran second twice and third in the final three picks from Santa Anita to finish 8-for-17 with more than $50 in profit for the day.

Originally when I saw that the Belmont card was cancelled I told Kim I'd be playing the races on Sunday since I'd already handicapped them.  But after having such a great day on Saturday I did not want to see a good weekend turned into an average to "ok" one and so I thought I'd just pass the day.  But Sunday morning I re-changed my mind and decided to bet the two best bets of the day.  The first had been the BET of the Weekend - Cody's Wish in the Grade 2 Vosburgh at Belmont, a seven furlong test.  He'd rattled off six wins in a row, all ultra impressive (including the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last fall) before having the win streak snapped trying nine furlongs in the Grade 1 Woodward last time.  A mile or less seems to be ideal for this superstar and I had little doubt he'd win, even with a less than stellar effort.  Tracked the leaders into the lane and collared the front runner.  That one would not give up easily but in deep stretch he was no match for the best bet of the weekend.

Several hours later the "mortal lock" out west was Bob Baffert's Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Zenyatta.  Only a four horse field and much like Zozos on Saturday, not only was she the "best" on paper in terms of class and figures but she was the lone speed.  Handily.  This led to a weekend final total of 10-for-19 and a generous profit for my efforts.  More big Breeders' Cup prep races next weekend as Keeneland opens!

To see all the photos and read the stories from our Nile River Cruise, click HERE.

Social Media While On The Trip......

First, many thanks to the 1,894 people who contributed to that "record number of social media hits while we were gone.  But, I must say I was so very happy that so many of "my girls" (and interestingly none of my male friends) were so active in their comments and messages.

Our adopted daughter Jillian wished us well early on the adventure, on she and my "Friend-versary" on Facebook.

When we rented in Cape Coral to help my son Jeff with his high school football job I became good friends with Jessica Jordan who was our favorite waitress at our favorite restaurant, Ford's Garage.  We've since remained friends and she was a follower as well.

CBS-4 anchor Lauren Pastrana also was following along, which I was happy that she was.  And right after we returned she had a BIG smile when talking about the change in the weather on the 11 pm news so I snapped a pic and sent it to which she reacted :)

Former CBS-4 Weekend anchor Karli Barnett not only followed along but several times took time to write me private messages.

CBS-4 Morning Weekend anchor Teri Hornstein and her partner in crime, weather girl KC Sherman also followed our trip.

I was very happy that long-time gal-pal Kimmy and I texted every day of the trip and she followed along enthusiastically.

And finally, while on the trip we became good friends with our favorite Viking staff girl, Petra.  She joined me for a video clip for the highlight video and we became Facebook friends leading to messaging throughout the remainder of the trip once we'd left the ship and continuing after we returned home.  Hopeful she can visit us in the future here in So Fla.

Pacific Classic Weekend

 Closing Weekend For Summer 2023
September 2-4

With Monday being the Labor Day Holiday there was not Monmouth racing on Friday, so the closing weekend of the summer for me was a Saturday-Sunday-Monday schedule with the highlight race being the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on Saturday from Del Mar for a $1 Million and a berth in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic.  The day started out like most days for me....after running fourth in the Monmouth opener and second in the Saratoga opener I scored in two of the next three.  At Gulfstream Mad Madame Mim tracked the pace into the lane, swept up four wide and was ready to power past when the front runner drifted out suddenly and my horse checked back to fourth some three lengths off the lead with a furlong to go.  I immediately thought "he'll be DQ'd but it won't do me any good because I'll be off the board."  But 'Mim rallied and won the photo for finishing second.  After the stewards reviewed the video I was awarded the win :)  Missed in Monmouth's second but then scored at Saratoga to start the day a solid 2-for-5, 40%.  That's more like it.

But then things began to unravel again, slowly but I had "that feeling" that today was NOT going to be a "big day" to balance out the numbers.  In a four horse field in the $500K Grade 2 Flower Bowl at Saratoga I had the 2/5 favorite - second; then third at Gulfstream at 4/5.  Picked up a win that was good for statistical purposes only when Riding Pretty was a handy winner at Monmouth at a paltry 1/9.  Then the skids really began.  Fifth, fourth, had the 3/5 favorite in the Grade 2 Prioress at the Spa, 3rd; the even money favorite at Gulfstream, 3rd.  Picked another cheap payoff win at Saratoga when Agate Road came FLYING from last at the top of the lane to be up in time - at even money at around 3:30 pm.  

Then the wheels came COMPLETELY off as fifteen in a row went down in flames.  Second at Monmouth at 3/1 when caught on the wire; led at the 16th pole at Gulfstream, caught in the shadow of the wire at 6/5, second.  Two more seconds in the next four and then didn't hit the board until running second at about 7:45 pm in the 7th at Del Mar.  I did salvage a little bit of "pride" when I won two of the last three picks on the day, both graded stakes at Del Mar including the national feature when Bob Baffert's Arabian Knight went wire-to-wire to win the Grade 1 $1 Million Pacific Classic and paid a nice $6.20.

Sunday I only had Monmouth selections - and only five plays total.  Again, got my hopes up when Paco Lopez blew by in the stretch on board Starstruck Notion at a generous 7/2 and paid $9.80.  But the final four selections didn't even hit the board.

Monday, Labor Day was "Closing Day" of the Summer Racing Season as I play Monmouth from their opening day card through Labor Day, and traditionally both Saratoga & Del Mar close on this day.  I had picks from all three of those venues and then to add some "action" I decided to play Canterbury one last time for the summer.  And that was the best decision of the day as it turned out.  Off the board with my first three picks (Monmouth and two from Saratoga) before picking up my first winner at Canterbury where Burning Leaves rallied from last to first and won going away in an entry level allowance event on the main track in the Minnesota opener.  Second at Monmouth and then Optimal Courage went wire-to-wire, lasting to the finish in a turf sprint under starter conditions to give me my second win in Minnesota, dontchaknow!

Off the board in two more Monmouth events before my "best" of the day at Canterbury went wire to wire on the turf as Bigfoot City burst out of the gate, went clear by half a dozen and was never threatened in a conditional allowance event going a mile on the grass.

A third and a fourth before my final bet of the summer at Saratoga saw American Know How rally to win a Maiden Special turf sprint.  Ran second in the CBY finale then 2nd, 3rd, and 9th at Del Mar before in the final wager of the summer, Crazy Hot won the General Portion Stakes at Del Mar.

With the summer season coming to a close I ran through all my numbers.  The first thing worth noting was how Monmouth played out.  I always play every Monmouth live card from May through Labor Day for two reasons.  First, I like having a track to play consistently through the summer, like Gulfstream in the winter.  And Monmouth is ideal because (a) it doesn't start until May so I get at least a month "off" from daily handicapping at Gulfstream, and (b) because they only run three days a week it's not as "demanding."  I also have come to enjoy playing Monmouth because for many years now the races almost always are either oh-so-obvious or a "go figure" kind of race.  And with the way I manage my money I have always done well at Monmouth.  But throughout this summer, nearly every day the cards on the Jersey Shore were filled with runners that just were hard to figure.  I knew I wasn't doing as well for the summer in general, especially during the month of August, but I also felt like the Monmouth selections really were pulling down my numbers.  Sure enough - look at the comparison between Monmouth 2023 and Monmouth 2021:

That's a SIGNIFICANT difference my friends!  But despite this I was very surprised with my overall numbers.  I first went through and totaled the stats for April through July.  Then the month of September separately.  Heading into the final month I was clicking at a big 38% win average - better than I thought I'd done.  But August, no surprise was a bid drop off as I won only 26%.  But most remarkable of all - for the total Spring/Summer season:

If you look my statistics over the last EIGHTEEN YEARS with over 30,000 selections, I win at a 34.9% clip.  So as has nearly always been the case, my numbers ARE my numbers!  And on a side note.....take out the Monmouth numbers and for the summer I went 228-for-590 which is 38.6% WINS.  Next week begins the Fall Championship Season for me and always in the past I back off my selections dramatically as I typically play only on the weekends, and not every weekend.  It's the start of the college football season and I'm trying to "recharge" myself in preparation for the Gulfstream Championship Season which kicks off the first weekend in December.  This Fall Season will particularly abbreviated as this coming Saturday Kim and I will be spending the day at Florida Atlantic University for the home game with Ohio University - this is where our oldest, Jeff, now is part of the football staff.  Then the following Tuesday (September 12) we fly from Fort Lauderdale to Cairo, Egypt to begin our epic Nile river cruise adventure through Viking River Cruises.  Since the 8th grade I've wanted to visit the pyramids and tombs of ancient Egypt and since seeing the original and most recent Agatha Christie feature film, "Death On The Nile" I've wanted this trip to include a Nile River Cruise.  Dreams CAN come true my friends!  So as a result it appears that I'll have but four racing dates on the calendar before Gulfstream and the winter season begins!

Follow Our Egypt Adventure HERE

Social Media this week......

Clearly the highlight of the week came Monday morning when I taped my episode for Viking TV via video link with their London studios.  The preliminary discussion with James went especially well and the presentation itself went smooth and I filled it with personal stories.  As I ended he came back on and said, "That was REALLY engaging, and to do it in a 'one off' without any re-dos was surprisingly good!"  We chatted for a couple more minutes and then he said, "We have a special guest who'd like to pop in and say Hi....." and the video screen flashed on from Switzerland where Karine Hagen - the Executive Vice President of Viking and daughter of the owner & founder came on.  I was just blown away first that she came on; then second when she said they'd been talking about me and she wanted to meet me.  Even more so when she said she was looking forward to hearing all my stories.  We talked for a good ten minutes and I was just so impressed with how down to earth she was and how much she genuinely wanted to know about me and my adventures.  So much so that she offered when we come to London for the British Isles itinerary next August, maybe we could set up a meeting.  WOW.  If this is the only episode I do for them I'll be oh-so-grateful for the experience, but I AM hopeful that I'll get the opportunity to do more presentations!

Maybe it's just me, but typically over the last year or so I almost always get a reaction if not a comment in return from CBS-Miami anchor Lauren Pastrana.  But over the last few weeks my posts have gone without any reaction.  So I was "pleased" when I commented on her posting that she reacted to it.

I changed my profile banner to reflect our Egypt trip and got several reactions, including an exchange with Kati who was our realtor briefly when we were contemplating buying in the Orlando area.

Gal-pal Karli Barnett wasn't able to host the typical Facebook LIVE chat this week but she did respond to my comment regarding the "no chat" post.

I became friends with Danielle through her Mom who is a dear friend and former work colleague at Cypress Bay.  Danielle and I have exchanged comments somewhat frequently and she appreciated my birthday wishes :)

But clearly the most interaction for the week came from new CBS-Miami gal-pal Teri Hornstein.  Since Teri assumed the anchor desk on the weekend the broadcasts (and the visuals/eye candy) have clearly improved by leaps and bounds.  And I've been delighted that she and I have connected through social media.  When I reached out to note how much we enjoyed her on the weekends she replied to me, twice!  I woke up on Monday morning and when I turned on the morning news much to my delight there was Teri again.  I sent her a pic of me watching while enjoying my morning coffee and again got a reply.  But the interaction I most appreciated came late Monday.  In the past I've shared things about my travel and life on occasion with Karli Barnett via FB messenger and we've "talked" privately.  And to some extent on Twitter this has happened with Lauren Pastrana.  I decided it was time to reach out to Teri and see if she too would engage in a private conversation.  So I sent her the story about the Viking TV episode and she replied back.  Very gratifying.  Hoping that all three news gals will interact with me regarding our upcoming Egypt trip.