Fall Stars Weekend: BC Preview Part 2

 October 7

We were in Orlando for a birthday celebration for our youngest son Brad and to see some hockey as our grandson had a hockey practice and Brad had a game Sunday evening.  The drive up was "an adventure" as we twice were stopped dead in our tracks on the turnpike.  What should have been about a 3 hour and 15 minute trip was nearly five hours long.  But we made it.  Saturday morning we went to the rink to watch our seven-year-old grandson Oliver go through hockey drills - so impressed with how much he's progressed and improved.  And on Sunday we watched our youngest play in his adult league.  Prior to the game his wife, Lauren, made us all sweatshirts sporting his team logo.  It's really difficult for me as a Florida Panther fan to wear the blue & white "Bolts" colors & logo since that team from Tampa is our most hated rival.  But for our son, I will.  They quickly fell behind and rallied to tie the score when Brad fired a shot from the slot and the rebound was punched in.  Got a chance to win with a minute and a half to go on the power play but quickly gave up a short handed goal.  Oh no.  But with just :19 on the clock Brad scored to tie the game.  SO very excited and proud.  No one scored in overtime.  Went to a shootout where the first team to outscore the other would be the winner.  The other team went first and converted.  Brad had to score as the first shoot out player for the Bolts or the game was over.  He skated in, made his move and buried it between the goalie's pads.  SO proud.  Even though they eventually lost the shootout it was a good game to watch and to see our boy net two goals and get an assist was very cool.  During the day on Saturday I played the races from Keeneland - where it was opening weekend of their Fall Meet - Gulfstream, and the late races from Santa Anita.

The third from Gulfstream was a five furlong, synthetic dash for two-year-olds under Maiden Special conditions.  Even though Great Venezuelan had debuted for a $25K tag, his sharp effort and big BSF made him the logical choice and a very likely winner to me.  Early in the betting he was 10/1 and I was just amazed.  I took great pleasure when the two GP analysts - neither of whom I think are particularly adept at picking winners - BOTH said they were not buying into Great Venezuelan as a viable win candidate.  I'm sure their skepticism played into the fact that he went off at an inflated price.  He pressed the pace through the turn while in the clear three wide, made his move into the lane while four wide and drew off and paid over $6.  WINNER numero uno!

The fourth at Keeneland was a second level allowance on the turf.  I could see how you might be skeptical of Chad Brown's returnee Saffron Moon, but Brown does very good work with horses coming off a layoff.  Also, she was the ONLY runner in the field who'd EVER met par for this level of competition.  Add in that the first time she'd tried turf last season came HERE and she WON!  Came right back to win an entry level Tampa event over the winter.  Her come back at Saratoga was s sharp effort and I was convinced she'd run big second off the bench.  Rated under a firm hold through the far turn she was cut loose in the lane and ran off as easily best.

The fifth at Gulfstream was another two-year-old MSW dash, this one on the main track.  For me, especially with lightly raced 2yo or 3yo I look for two things.  Either someone who had a dazzling debut and looks to be sitting on a win, or conversely if all the runners with experience were not that impressive, I look for a firster from a barn that can win with such.  The latter was the case here as Catalytic came from the Saffie Joseph barn with some sharp works.  Tracked the pace in the clear while four wide through the turn.  Asked to run turning for home and kicked away as the betting choice was way to late to threaten.

The second of the big stakes at Keeneland came in Race 7, a "Win & You're In" Breeders' Cup event, the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes - a sprint for fillies & mares that would punch the winner's ticket to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  The first thing that caught my eye was that for a Grade 2 with BC implications, the field was pretty light.  All of the runners with past credentials did not look intimidating to me.  The lightly raced and improving Yuugiri caught my eye as a potential win bet.  She was exiting a score in the listed Open Mind Stakes at Churchill Downs where she'd run away from the prohibitive favorite Wicked Halo who'd been 2/5 that day.  Prior to that effort, Wicked Halo had six straight 90+ Beyer figures and had won six of ten, including the Grade 2 Raven Run here.  What had happened?  No troubled trip or comments and following the race she had a 32nd best of 32 works.  On her past efforts she would be a threat, but I didn't like her chances.  Yuugiri dueled with a 6/1 front runner into the turn and turning into the lane got her head in front.  But Wicked Halo was on the move and she collared my top choice.  Got HER head in front and looked poised to inch clear, but Yuugiri - along the rail - was not done.  She battled back and inside the sixteenth pole they were on even terms, bobbing heads for the lead.  The wire came up and I THOUGHT MAYBE I'd won but was from from confident, even when they showed the slow-motion replay on the wire.  But when the numbers were posted I was indeed the official winner!

The 8th at Keeneland was the Grade 1 First Lady going a mile on the turf and I thought Chad Brown's In Italian was a loose-on-the-lead winner.  Made her a prime time bet and she was clear into the lane, looked home free only to be nailed by her 11/1 stablemate in a photo finish as tight as the winning one I'd had with Yuugiri.  Sigh.....you win some, you lose some.  In the 9th, it was the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity for 2yo colts looking to head to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and become an early leader on the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail.  The first thing worth noting when I began analyzing the race was that only ONE of these colts had ever gone two turns.  And he was 20/1 on the morning line.  So the question was who could get the trip?  Todd Pletcher's 2yo Locked was a son of Gunrunner so he should appreciate the added ground, and as a $425K sales grade there were obviously high expectations.  He was checked to last in his Saratoga sprint debut but showed courage to rally for third.  Then last time out he went the unique mile trip at the Spa.  Was sent off at 3/5 and dazzled with a daylight score and monstrous 96 Beyer.  Was five wide through the first turn and seventh of eight entering the backstretch.  With the finish line being at the first wire of a short stretch I was concerned.  At the top of the far turn he began his sweeping move and while wide into the lane hit the front and drew clear.  Impressive!  That made for my third win on the day in Lexington which would play into the final outcome of the day for me!

I had five late bets at Santa Anita on their Breeders' Cup Preview Day and scored with three of them.  Slider was way too good for his overmatched rivals in the Speakeasy Stakes going five furlongs on the grass.  Then in the "Best Bet" on the card, Didia drew off impressively in the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive - a ten furlong turf test - to stamp her ticket to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  And finally, Bob Baffert's $2 Million colt Muth was ultra impressive winning the Grade 1 American Pharoah to head into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as one of the top betting choices.

It was ironic - to me at least - that as the final race went official and I totaled my numbers on the day that I had a big winning percentage, much like last week.  But I chuckled as I shared my stats with Kim telling her I had wagered a grand total of $200 on the day and had collected $200.70.  BUT as I noted to her....I'd had three BIG bets on the day and lost two of them, and the one I won with brought me a profit of merely $2.  So to come out "ahead" was more than acceptable to me.

I'd mentioned earlier that the wins at Keeneland would be a key.  Well, TwinSpires ran a promotion that was NOT a money-back for finishing 2nd or third, but that you would get a bonus payout depending on how many races you won at Keeneland.  With my three wins in Lexington I upped the total profit from just under a dollar to just over TEN dollars.  Again, I will gladly take that for a day's worth of fun!

Social Media this week.....

One of the biggest adjustments for me upon our return from our amazing trip to Egypt was going from having every day social interaction with real people, all day every day, to spending the majority of my days alone and without any human interaction except for a little with my wife.  So the interaction online for me this week was again of importance.  The first came when Oasis student-athlete Emma celebrated her 20th birthday.  Her older brother played on our football team; he Mom Mindy and I were good friends as she was always on the sideline helping out as a quasi-trainer; and Emma's dad Nathan and I became friends with a common interest in horse racing.  I saw her birthday posted on Mindy's page and when I wished Emma a happy birthday she reacted to it.

Over the weekend while in Orlando I had a long text-chat with my "Disney girl," Amanda.  Among other things was we continued our discussion about needing to meet in person over a glass or two of wine to catch up on her things were going.

Twice I had "conversations" with former local news anchor and now gal-pal Karli Barnett.  I had been disappointed last weekend when there wasn't a Saturday Facebook Live chat as I was hoping to "talk" with Karli about our trip.  And so by mid-week when I still had not "seen" Karli online I sent her a message expressing "concern" that I hoped everything was all good and she was happy.  I was rewarded with a personal message back.  Then this Saturday as we were headed out to the roller rink I saw a notice that the Live Chat was on.  I checked in quickly and thanked her for following our trip (you can see her multiple posts in reaction to the pics & videos in last week's journal).  She immediately reacted to my comment and as Kim said when I showed her Karli's live comments, ".....she went on and on about our trip didn't she?....."  I snagged the clip and added it to the end of the highlight videos on the trip!

I continue to have nearly every day "conversations" with our girl Petra from the Viking Osiris.  She continues to lead me to believe she wants to visit us and I do enjoy looking forward to a comment or two each day from her.

Finally, on the mid-week evening news gal-pal and evening anchor Lauren Pastrana was airing a story about the growing jackpot of over $1 BILLION for the national lottery.  I messaged her that we should share the big prize to which she reacted :)

Back From Egypt: BC Preview Part 1

 September 30/October 1

After an EPIC adventure to ancient Egypt, having our own "Death On The Nile" river cruise experience (sans the death part) and visiting Jordan to explore the Lost City of Petra, I was back in time to play the Breeders' Cup Preview weekend races where I had selections at Belmont at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Laurel Park, and Santa Anita.  The racing turned out to me NEARLY as epic as the cruise adventure!  When I handicapped for the weekend I intended to just play on Saturday and had several bets in New York.  But Friday the area had torrential rains that flooded the city and so racing was called off for Saturday with the card moved to Sunday.  This pushed back my first bets until after 2pm, giving me time to watch some college football before the racing began.  I ran third and then second twice in my first three selections before hitting the winners' circle.  In the sixth at Laurel it was the first of their multiple stakes, this one the Selima for juveniles going two turns on the turf.  All of them were lightly raced with but a maiden win.  Brocknardini had been outrun in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine last time out off of a maiden debut win at Saratoga.  I was willing to toss that try as he dropped in against listed foes.  A run back to the initial start would easily score.  But as they moved through the far turn and he was at the back of the pack it seemed like he was not running that race.  Then the rider moved his hands and the colt circled the field, moved five wide into the lane, STILL at the back, but cleared all of his rivals by the time they hit the 16th pole and widened the margin to nearly two lengths under the wire.  Impressive for the first winner of the day.

The next race, nearly 45 minutes later, came from Louisville, a second level allowance sprint.  No one in the field looked like they had a clear advantage but if you were willing to toss the last for Your So Sillea, which came off the layoff AND in the mud at Ellis Park, then his previous tries were all good enough to beat these.  I was concerned about his 12/2-5-0 lifetime record so I only bet the minimum.  Burst out of the gate and quickly was clear.  Never threatened, never looked back.  Two in a row!

The next selection saw me back in Maryland for the Japan Turf Cup, a marathon race going a mile and a half.  Trainer Mike Maker seems to ALWAYS have the top contender in any turf marathon race around the country, and his Yamato looked best to me.  Two back and three back he ran very competitively against graded foes so on the drop today I expected a sharp effort.  Mid-pack to the far turn he began his move but was shut off and checked sharply.  Sigh, there goes his chances I thought.  But within a few strides he was back in full flight pursuit of the leaders.  Swept up three wide into the lane and drew off to score handily!  THREE in a row :)

The eighth race under the Twin Spires in Louisville was the first of four straight stakes events in Kentucky.  This was the Jefferson Cup for 3yo on the turf.  There were three rivals who had speed figures that said they would be competitive with Cherie Devaux's More Than Looks, but he CLEARLY was the class of the field.  In four starts on the grass he had two wins, a photo finish 2nd and a third.  The photo came in his first try vs. winners and going long; the 3rd came in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga where he was beaten by talented Carl Spackler, and only by three lengths.  The two wins included a score in the Grade 3 Manilla in New York.  Much like the first winner today he was well, WELL back heading into the turn and announcer Trevor Stone even called at the top of the stretch he was "hopelessly out of it" turning for home.  Then he accelerated and just blew by his rivals to win going away.  AND I'd tripled the bet on this one!  WHOOOO HOOOO - four in a row :)

The 9th at Laurel was the Twixt Stakes and as you scanned the past performances about the ONLY reason you'd have to NOT bet on Brad Cox's Interstatedaydreams was that she seemingly was TOO GOOD to be running in this listed event.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner with a decided edge in speed figures.  Hard to imagine she would not score and she was hammered at the windows as if she would run to her advantage.  Like earlier winners I found the odds-on favorite at the back into the far turn.  Began weaving through traffic, swung five wide into the lane and blew by handily to justify the very short price and provided me with the FIFTH WIN in a row.  Oh I'm having a good day in my return to racing!

The ninth at Churchill was the Grade 3 Ack Ack going a one-turn mile.  I'd scored with Brad Cox's Zozos before and knew he was talented.  You might wonder about his fading fourth last time at a short price but for me I tossed it.  This one-turn configuration seemed ideal for him and best of all he looked like the lone speed.  Right to the front and if you were not used to watching races you might have thought he was being pressured by two longshots all the way to the turn.  But though the margin of his lead was small, the rider seemed very confident.  When he asked him to open up he easily widened on the field.  Got a little tired nearing the wire, but was never threatened as I rattled off my SIXTH winner in a row.

As the adage goes, "you can't win them all," and in spite of the fact that when I make a selection I fully EXPECT to win, I know that winning at a 35% clip - which is my average over 30,000 races - is a very big winning percent.  So sitting at six-for-nine at this point you knew it had to end at some point.  I was off the board in three straight before getting back into the WIN column in back-to-back picks at Santa Anita.  The fourth out west was a MSW dash and was DRF analyst Brad Free's BEST Bet of the Day.  Those picks win at a high rate and Trejon Pass was no exception.  Followed that up by a thrilling win when Dr. Schivel made the front turning for home in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship.  But his best win alternative rival came to him strongly with all the momentum at the furlong pole but the good Doctor would NOT let him by!

Ran second twice and third in the final three picks from Santa Anita to finish 8-for-17 with more than $50 in profit for the day.

Originally when I saw that the Belmont card was cancelled I told Kim I'd be playing the races on Sunday since I'd already handicapped them.  But after having such a great day on Saturday I did not want to see a good weekend turned into an average to "ok" one and so I thought I'd just pass the day.  But Sunday morning I re-changed my mind and decided to bet the two best bets of the day.  The first had been the BET of the Weekend - Cody's Wish in the Grade 2 Vosburgh at Belmont, a seven furlong test.  He'd rattled off six wins in a row, all ultra impressive (including the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last fall) before having the win streak snapped trying nine furlongs in the Grade 1 Woodward last time.  A mile or less seems to be ideal for this superstar and I had little doubt he'd win, even with a less than stellar effort.  Tracked the leaders into the lane and collared the front runner.  That one would not give up easily but in deep stretch he was no match for the best bet of the weekend.

Several hours later the "mortal lock" out west was Bob Baffert's Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Zenyatta.  Only a four horse field and much like Zozos on Saturday, not only was she the "best" on paper in terms of class and figures but she was the lone speed.  Handily.  This led to a weekend final total of 10-for-19 and a generous profit for my efforts.  More big Breeders' Cup prep races next weekend as Keeneland opens!

To see all the photos and read the stories from our Nile River Cruise, click HERE.

Social Media While On The Trip......

First, many thanks to the 1,894 people who contributed to that "record number of social media hits while we were gone.  But, I must say I was so very happy that so many of "my girls" (and interestingly none of my male friends) were so active in their comments and messages.

Our adopted daughter Jillian wished us well early on the adventure, on she and my "Friend-versary" on Facebook.

When we rented in Cape Coral to help my son Jeff with his high school football job I became good friends with Jessica Jordan who was our favorite waitress at our favorite restaurant, Ford's Garage.  We've since remained friends and she was a follower as well.

CBS-4 anchor Lauren Pastrana also was following along, which I was happy that she was.  And right after we returned she had a BIG smile when talking about the change in the weather on the 11 pm news so I snapped a pic and sent it to which she reacted :)

Former CBS-4 Weekend anchor Karli Barnett not only followed along but several times took time to write me private messages.

CBS-4 Morning Weekend anchor Teri Hornstein and her partner in crime, weather girl KC Sherman also followed our trip.

I was very happy that long-time gal-pal Kimmy and I texted every day of the trip and she followed along enthusiastically.

And finally, while on the trip we became good friends with our favorite Viking staff girl, Petra.  She joined me for a video clip for the highlight video and we became Facebook friends leading to messaging throughout the remainder of the trip once we'd left the ship and continuing after we returned home.  Hopeful she can visit us in the future here in So Fla.