Breeders' Cup Preview Day
A Day at the Downs
When Keith and I were at the Breeders' Cup last fall in Lexington at Keeneland, Keith remarked to me that he had never been to Churchill Downs. He asked how close we were and I explained that he had passed Churchill on the way to Keeneland, so we agreed we'd have a racing adventure this fall. After going through a variety of dates we finally came up with this weekend. As part of my visit to Ohio this fall, we would meet for a quick adventure in the middle of my family visit. Three quick stories, which you can read more details on my travel journal for this adventure (click here) were.....(a) when I booked the hotel I got it for free through my Expedia rewards! (b) the car rental for the week was going to be $250 but I was able to get a car for just the three days and got it down to less than $75! And, (c) the night before the day at the races we went out to eat at what used to be the original Galt House (very famous and expensive hotel/restaurant in Louisville) in the Troll Pub Under the Bridge.....
Saturday morning we got up and went to the Derby Museum and by 11:30 we were at Churchill Downs for a day of racing.......After getting reserved seats right on the finish line, under cover (in anticipation of in-climate weather during the afternoon) I had Keith take a photo of me to post on my Facebook page and then we went down to the rail for a photo of the two of us......
When Keith had sat down with the Daily Racing Form last night at the hotel he remarked how much the card seemed like a "Calder card" with very few solid plays. One of the things which was certainly an amazing thing to see, live, because I'd obviously seen it on broadcasts of the races, but it was new since I'd last been here, was the GIGANTIC jumbotron. It's mounted over 90 feet in the air and you can fit not one, not two, but THREE NBA basketball courts on the screen. Now THAT is big! And it is such a high quality high definition picture, amazing.
I had selections in seven of the eleven races, but with the recent weather two of those scratched out when the races came off the turf. The opener at Churchill was a mile and a sixteenth claiming event and I liked Compass Stone who left the gate as a tepid 2/1 favorite. He was in an excellent stalking position three wide into the far turn and stopped once the sprint to the wire started, sixth. I passed the second. At Belmont in their third Todd Pletcher's debuting colt Gotta Curlin was 20/1 in the DRF morning program - I wrote in my analysis, "...show of hands, who thinks a Pletcher FTS for Stonestreet Stables with John Velazquez on board will be 20/1...." Sure enough, 5/2 at post time. Pressed the pace to the stretch and stopped, fifth. The third at Churchill was a maiden special on the turf. Now it was off and my horse was scratched. I made an initial second choice, but then decided against it. Good thing as he did set the pace as the lone speed, as I thought. But then stopped like he was shot and was last under the wire at 6/1. The fourth was an interesting race - it was a maiden special weight going a one-turn mile, and I liked Ma Can Do It - see if you can see my concern:
She obviously has talent, as is obvious from her third place finish in the Grade 1 Alcibiades as a 2yo followed by a fifth in the Breeders' Cup; then a sharp second in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan this year. But she was odds-on in the June 18th Churchill race, I know I bet her and she was a badly beaten fourth; then in the turf event she again faded as the favorite. But, as I said to Kim, today I thought she might be a fair price BECAUSE of the nine losses (track psychology that she'd win today) and I thought that going a one-turn mile might be the ideal trip for her. She was 8/5 as they approached the gate but was hammered late to be 3/5 as they hit the far turn. She swooped by on the turn, opened up and won as much the best.
I upped the bet on her and Keith pounded her - winner, winner, chicken dinner! I didn't like anyone in the fifth - we took advantage of the break and had lunch. Next up, another maiden event, this time 8 1/2 furlongs for two-year-olds and I liked Silent Degree who had improved in each of her three starts. She also stalked the pace to the stretch, opened up and looked long gone. But if you watch the highlight video you'll see how in mid-stretch she ran erratically and I thought she had lost the race. But she found her best stride in deep stretch and held on! There was an objection and Keith and I were concerned. But without a steward's inquiry I felt pretty comfortable.
She stayed up - but only paid $4.80, and I only got $12 back on the minimum play. We headed down to the paddock to check out the horses before the 7th, but I had no bet because it was an off-the-turf event. I wanted to bet because it was a stakes race, but in the end I couldn't find anyone I liked. Again a good decision as the horse I liked was a beaten nearly a dozen lengths when fourth at 9/2. The biggest setback of the day came in the 6th at Belmont when Flintshire was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch going 12 furlongs on the turf. He was the overwhelming favorite for next month's Breeders' Cup Turf and has been so impressive in three straight wins here in North America. Today he faced only three rivals and it looked like a foregone conclusion. Instead a Todd Pletcher runner, who had moved into his barn this year and was WINLESS since 2014 went wire to wire and paid $20 IN A FOUR HORSE FIELD no less, while Flintshire was a dull second. He will probably not get my vote in the BC Turf after that effort. The $50 BEST BET investment lost here ended up costing me a profitable day when all the numbers were counted despite some good scores still to come. I was fifth in Belmont's Grade 2 Gallant Bloom after Wonder Gal made a middle move at 2/1 and then hung; I was a badly beaten 7th with Scurry in Churchill's eighth at 2/1. Then in the "best" of the day at Churchill Downs Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion came back for his first race since December and stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Grade 3 Ack Ack. I questioned the trainer who'd only started two horses in all of 2016 - does she know what she's doing? - and the stretch out. But even if he ran five or six clicks behind his last several Beyers he would win. He was 1/9 until right before post time when he went up to 1/5. I thought that was fair. He pressed the pace but looked from the beginning like he wasn't comfortable. No response through the lane as we watched from the rail, fourth. He is another that won't get a dollar of my money on BC weekend. In the Grade 1 Vosburgh, a six furlong sprint at Belmont I liked AP Indian, but with the wet conditions he scratched. My first indication was to pass the race - but I'd had many of these already! My second thought was to go with the horse that initially had been my pick, XY Jet who was shipping up from South Florida. But like Runhappy he had not run since the spring and was coming off an injury. As I told Keith, if it was a Gr 3 maybe - but at this level, on the sloppy Belmont track? As the favorite to boot? No way. So I thought I'd pass. Then I noticed that Joking was on a two race win streak, with numbers good enough to win. AND best of all, if XY Jet faded after setting fast fractions, which I thought was a very likely scenario, Joking would be running late. And the VERY BEST of all, on off tracks he was 4/3-1-0. Well, XY Jet set a rapid :44 flat pace to the stretch and like I thought, stopped as the 6/5 favorite. But if you'd offered to buy my ticket at this point I'd have sold it to you as Joking was next to last and coming VERY wide. But through the lane he was F-L-Y-I-N-G and was up in time! WHOOO HOOO! And best of all was his price -
Yes, that's right he was 4/1 and I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for $50! The third stakes of the day at Churchill Downs was the Lucas Classic and I thought that Breaking Lucky would be closing into a contested pace at a nice price. I told Keith as they were approaching the gate that my pick was overbet as the mild 2/1 favorite and that if either Noble Bird - who'd wired the Grade 1 Clark two years ago or Bradester, who'd wired the Grade 1 Clark this past year, got loose on the lead it was all over. Noble Bird wired the field at 9/2 while Breaking Lucky showed little. As they left the gate in Louisville they were running the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont where Forever Unbridled was my top choice as a prime-time play. As we walked into the simulcast area we could see on the far wall the slo-mo replay of the winner crossing the wire in New York and Keith said, "....it looks like a white saddle cloth...." (which would me it was #2, which was our number).
Sure enough, she'd been TONS the best and I'd be cashing for over $30! TWO big wins at Belmont, so that's a photo op! In the finale my pick was Missile Bomb and Keith took the vast majority of his profits for the day and put it on him - he was 16/1 with ten minutes to go, then dropped to 8/1 and finally 4/1. As they turned for home and he made his move for the lead I really thought Keith was about to cash for nearly $1000, but Missile Bomb could not get by - third. We headed to the car and I dropped Keith off at his auto at the hotel and we headed out. I was home by 9:30 - it was a great drive with it staying light until after 7:30 as I drove through the northern Kentucky hills. First thing once I got home was I watched the replays from Santa Anita. In the 2yo race, the Grade 1 Forerunner my pick Klimt was grossly overbet to 1/5 and trailed to the far turn. FLYING late, but way too late, second. In the Grade 1 Awesome Again, the prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic, the best horse in the world currently, California Chrome, romped under a hand ride. You know if a 2yo was 1/5 he had to be 1/9, right?
Somehow he got away at 2/5 and my BET of the DAY investment got me back $140! I had told Keith that the day's profit would be determined by Beholder's performance in the Grade 1 Zenyatta where she looked to get revenge on Stellar Wind who upset her in their last meeting. I was certain she'd win because today she would NOT be forced to be on the front end and I think she's much more effective from off the pace. Instead she went right to the front - Stellar Wind came to her at the top of the lane and they dueled to deep stretch before Stellar Wind edged clear, again. For the day a solid 5-for-15, but lost a little money on the day.
It was a great racing adventure and yet another great trip to add to my collection of retirement trips! Next up in two weeks, the solo cruise in France!
When Keith had sat down with the Daily Racing Form last night at the hotel he remarked how much the card seemed like a "Calder card" with very few solid plays. One of the things which was certainly an amazing thing to see, live, because I'd obviously seen it on broadcasts of the races, but it was new since I'd last been here, was the GIGANTIC jumbotron. It's mounted over 90 feet in the air and you can fit not one, not two, but THREE NBA basketball courts on the screen. Now THAT is big! And it is such a high quality high definition picture, amazing.
I had selections in seven of the eleven races, but with the recent weather two of those scratched out when the races came off the turf. The opener at Churchill was a mile and a sixteenth claiming event and I liked Compass Stone who left the gate as a tepid 2/1 favorite. He was in an excellent stalking position three wide into the far turn and stopped once the sprint to the wire started, sixth. I passed the second. At Belmont in their third Todd Pletcher's debuting colt Gotta Curlin was 20/1 in the DRF morning program - I wrote in my analysis, "...show of hands, who thinks a Pletcher FTS for Stonestreet Stables with John Velazquez on board will be 20/1...." Sure enough, 5/2 at post time. Pressed the pace to the stretch and stopped, fifth. The third at Churchill was a maiden special on the turf. Now it was off and my horse was scratched. I made an initial second choice, but then decided against it. Good thing as he did set the pace as the lone speed, as I thought. But then stopped like he was shot and was last under the wire at 6/1. The fourth was an interesting race - it was a maiden special weight going a one-turn mile, and I liked Ma Can Do It - see if you can see my concern:
She obviously has talent, as is obvious from her third place finish in the Grade 1 Alcibiades as a 2yo followed by a fifth in the Breeders' Cup; then a sharp second in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan this year. But she was odds-on in the June 18th Churchill race, I know I bet her and she was a badly beaten fourth; then in the turf event she again faded as the favorite. But, as I said to Kim, today I thought she might be a fair price BECAUSE of the nine losses (track psychology that she'd win today) and I thought that going a one-turn mile might be the ideal trip for her. She was 8/5 as they approached the gate but was hammered late to be 3/5 as they hit the far turn. She swooped by on the turn, opened up and won as much the best.
I upped the bet on her and Keith pounded her - winner, winner, chicken dinner! I didn't like anyone in the fifth - we took advantage of the break and had lunch. Next up, another maiden event, this time 8 1/2 furlongs for two-year-olds and I liked Silent Degree who had improved in each of her three starts. She also stalked the pace to the stretch, opened up and looked long gone. But if you watch the highlight video you'll see how in mid-stretch she ran erratically and I thought she had lost the race. But she found her best stride in deep stretch and held on! There was an objection and Keith and I were concerned. But without a steward's inquiry I felt pretty comfortable.
She stayed up - but only paid $4.80, and I only got $12 back on the minimum play. We headed down to the paddock to check out the horses before the 7th, but I had no bet because it was an off-the-turf event. I wanted to bet because it was a stakes race, but in the end I couldn't find anyone I liked. Again a good decision as the horse I liked was a beaten nearly a dozen lengths when fourth at 9/2. The biggest setback of the day came in the 6th at Belmont when Flintshire was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch going 12 furlongs on the turf. He was the overwhelming favorite for next month's Breeders' Cup Turf and has been so impressive in three straight wins here in North America. Today he faced only three rivals and it looked like a foregone conclusion. Instead a Todd Pletcher runner, who had moved into his barn this year and was WINLESS since 2014 went wire to wire and paid $20 IN A FOUR HORSE FIELD no less, while Flintshire was a dull second. He will probably not get my vote in the BC Turf after that effort. The $50 BEST BET investment lost here ended up costing me a profitable day when all the numbers were counted despite some good scores still to come. I was fifth in Belmont's Grade 2 Gallant Bloom after Wonder Gal made a middle move at 2/1 and then hung; I was a badly beaten 7th with Scurry in Churchill's eighth at 2/1. Then in the "best" of the day at Churchill Downs Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion came back for his first race since December and stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Grade 3 Ack Ack. I questioned the trainer who'd only started two horses in all of 2016 - does she know what she's doing? - and the stretch out. But even if he ran five or six clicks behind his last several Beyers he would win. He was 1/9 until right before post time when he went up to 1/5. I thought that was fair. He pressed the pace but looked from the beginning like he wasn't comfortable. No response through the lane as we watched from the rail, fourth. He is another that won't get a dollar of my money on BC weekend. In the Grade 1 Vosburgh, a six furlong sprint at Belmont I liked AP Indian, but with the wet conditions he scratched. My first indication was to pass the race - but I'd had many of these already! My second thought was to go with the horse that initially had been my pick, XY Jet who was shipping up from South Florida. But like Runhappy he had not run since the spring and was coming off an injury. As I told Keith, if it was a Gr 3 maybe - but at this level, on the sloppy Belmont track? As the favorite to boot? No way. So I thought I'd pass. Then I noticed that Joking was on a two race win streak, with numbers good enough to win. AND best of all, if XY Jet faded after setting fast fractions, which I thought was a very likely scenario, Joking would be running late. And the VERY BEST of all, on off tracks he was 4/3-1-0. Well, XY Jet set a rapid :44 flat pace to the stretch and like I thought, stopped as the 6/5 favorite. But if you'd offered to buy my ticket at this point I'd have sold it to you as Joking was next to last and coming VERY wide. But through the lane he was F-L-Y-I-N-G and was up in time! WHOOO HOOO! And best of all was his price -
Yes, that's right he was 4/1 and I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for $50! The third stakes of the day at Churchill Downs was the Lucas Classic and I thought that Breaking Lucky would be closing into a contested pace at a nice price. I told Keith as they were approaching the gate that my pick was overbet as the mild 2/1 favorite and that if either Noble Bird - who'd wired the Grade 1 Clark two years ago or Bradester, who'd wired the Grade 1 Clark this past year, got loose on the lead it was all over. Noble Bird wired the field at 9/2 while Breaking Lucky showed little. As they left the gate in Louisville they were running the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont where Forever Unbridled was my top choice as a prime-time play. As we walked into the simulcast area we could see on the far wall the slo-mo replay of the winner crossing the wire in New York and Keith said, "....it looks like a white saddle cloth...." (which would me it was #2, which was our number).
Sure enough, she'd been TONS the best and I'd be cashing for over $30! TWO big wins at Belmont, so that's a photo op! In the finale my pick was Missile Bomb and Keith took the vast majority of his profits for the day and put it on him - he was 16/1 with ten minutes to go, then dropped to 8/1 and finally 4/1. As they turned for home and he made his move for the lead I really thought Keith was about to cash for nearly $1000, but Missile Bomb could not get by - third. We headed to the car and I dropped Keith off at his auto at the hotel and we headed out. I was home by 9:30 - it was a great drive with it staying light until after 7:30 as I drove through the northern Kentucky hills. First thing once I got home was I watched the replays from Santa Anita. In the 2yo race, the Grade 1 Forerunner my pick Klimt was grossly overbet to 1/5 and trailed to the far turn. FLYING late, but way too late, second. In the Grade 1 Awesome Again, the prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic, the best horse in the world currently, California Chrome, romped under a hand ride. You know if a 2yo was 1/5 he had to be 1/9, right?
Somehow he got away at 2/5 and my BET of the DAY investment got me back $140! I had told Keith that the day's profit would be determined by Beholder's performance in the Grade 1 Zenyatta where she looked to get revenge on Stellar Wind who upset her in their last meeting. I was certain she'd win because today she would NOT be forced to be on the front end and I think she's much more effective from off the pace. Instead she went right to the front - Stellar Wind came to her at the top of the lane and they dueled to deep stretch before Stellar Wind edged clear, again. For the day a solid 5-for-15, but lost a little money on the day.
It was a great racing adventure and yet another great trip to add to my collection of retirement trips! Next up in two weeks, the solo cruise in France!
A Day at the Downs
October 1, 2016
No comments:
Post a Comment