Racing Towards The Breeders' Cup
This weekend was Opening Weekend at Keeneland and the "Fall Stars Weekend" featured multiple graded stakes on all three days! I handicapped the full card for each day and here's the results.....
Friday October 7
I had five races where I had a selection from the ten race card on Opening Day. I passed the first two races and it was a good thing as both winners ($16.60 and $8.20) were not even mentioned in my analysis of the top contenders. In the third I liked Scarly Charly who was sent off at 5/2 in a seven furlong, third level allowance. Trailed from the get-go and showed nothing. In the fourth I passed, writing it was a "wild and wide-open maiden claimer for two-year-olds." The winner was a $26.00 upset runner. Good decisions on the races I've passed so far! In the fourth we were sprinting six furlongs in a non-winner of two-lifetime claiming event. It's rare that top North American trainer Todd Pletcher has a claiming horse, much less one entered in a 2-lifetime event. But that was the case with Sir Alfred. The Beyer figures he'd earned in his last four were easily, EASILY the best of these and he'd never seen a tag or a 2-lifetime event. But after a dominant win at Gulfstream to break his maiden at odds-on by fifteen lengths he'd faded in each subsequent try and today would be his sixth consecutive different rider. No problems today however as he tracked the leaders four wide into the lane, engaged the leader and dueled to the wire, forging ahead narrowly in the shadow of the wire!
My first win of the Fall Keeneland meet! Right back into the winner's circle in the sixth - a MSW race going 8 1/2 furlongs with a "first finish line" in the short stretch. Valadorna looked much the best to me. When I handicapped the race and typed up my selection sheet I had indicated I would triple the bet. But when I printed it out I missed that - for some reason my printer when I print a word doc of my selections, it cuts off 1/2 of the icon I use to indicate an increased wager. This isn't a problem for double investments because the icon is still visible. But when I add an asterisk, which is my sign for a triple bet, the asterisk is often so close to the icon that I miss it - such was the case here. Valadorna was wide throughout, but when swung out five wide off the far turn she accelerated to the wire and won going away under a hand ride by at least half a dozen lengths.
Cashed for nearly $20 (should have been nearly $30, but what are you going to do?). I passed on the 7th where I had no clue on anyone to even mention with a chance - the winner was a Ramsey horse on the turf which had caught my eye, but the 1-for-17 record was really hard to swallow, especially at a short price. The 8th was the Grade 2 Phoenix and the prohibitive favorite was AP Indian who was working on a five race win streak, including back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Saratoga most recently. I had never been a fan and I was eager to go against him. I liked Ami's Flatter who was a nice 9/2 price. In all five of his one-turn events he'd won or been close and his biggest speed figure had come in a Grade 3 win, HERE. AP Indian was being hammered early at 1/9 and I considered switching my bet. But as I came close to doing that I was reminded that he'd been pointed for the Grade 1 Vosburgh last weekend but had passed due to the off-going. I never like to bet horses who have last minute changes in planned outings. My pick came flying late, without being a serious threat to be third at a nice 9/2 price while AP Indian was life-and-death at 2/5 in an oh-so-close photo finish, but he won. Definitely one to bet against in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I had a minimum bet on Diadurda in the 9th, the Grade 1 Alcibiades for two-year-old fillies but she was a distant 10th at 7/2 while a $26.60 upsetter scored. In the finale I had no inkling, so I passed. Two-for-five on the day, I'll take it.
Saturday October 8
Today was a big day of racing and I had picks from not only Keeneland but a few from both Belmont and Santa Anita. As I went through my analysis I wrote very detailed descriptions of not only my choices, but why and a little about the race conditions because my nephew Eric, who lives in Cincinnati, had messaged me that he and some friends were headed to Keeneland for a day at the races. I was hopeful that I could provide him some winners. I was at home watching online while I watched college football all day as I would not get to see any games for the next two weeks due to my upcoming river cruise in western France.....ooooh la la! I lost the first bet when Data Room was a fading eighth in the 2nd at Belmont. But I bounced back with Bella Bailar in the opener at Keeneland. This was a non-winners of two lifetime and she was the only one who had never seen a tag or a 2L condition. She went wire to wire handily.
And best of all she paid a generous $7.20. I only had the minimum because I'd been very conscious of trying to structure my bets around my BET of the Day on Tepin in the Grade 1 First Lady later in the day. I didn't know how Eric was planning to make his bets, but it had to be a positive that we'd won the opener, and I was hoping he'd would impress his new girlfriend. I texted him but he replied that they had arrived too late and he'd missed making the bet. Bummer. I passed the 2nd at Keeneland and ran 5th at 7/2 in the Grade 1 Frizette for two-year-old fillies at Belmont. I liked Whateverybodywants in the third at Keeneland and he was 7/2 in the early program. But everyone saw what I did and hammered him down to 7/5 due to him being lightly raced and with a big upside. He bobbled at the break and then was in traffic throughout the entire race. A non-eventful fourth. Boooo. In the fifth at Belmont Todd Pletcher had two runners and I liked Tommy Macho who was 6/1 in the early program but a tepid favorite at 2/1 at post time. His stablemate went wire to wire to give Pletcher the win (as the "other 2/1" favorite) while Tommy was a non-threatening fifth. No bet in Keeneland's fourth and then it was time for my BEST of the day at Belmont, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl for older fillies & mares going a mile and a quarter on the turf. Lady Eli had been a sensational juvenile and Breeders' Cup Champ and then had a great start to her sophomore season before coming down with what is almost always a fatal disease. But after a year off she was remarkably back on the track and just missed in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa last time out. With one under her belt I thought she'd be really hard to beat today. She made her winning move on the far turn and while it was as sensational as her first six wins had been, the fact that she'd won a Grade 1 event after being off a year with an ailment that many anticipated would not only end her career but take her life made this a remarkable fairy-tale ending.
On to the Breeders' Cup for Lady Eli! My pick in the Grade 3 Woodford at Keeneland, a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint was Front Pocket Money who was 30/1 in the DRF program. I knew he would not be those odds but I did think he'd be a big price. He was a huge 19/1 at post time and he was a close third - have to be happy with the pick even though he didn't win. But it was a big disappointment when Stonetastic looked to be the lone speed in the Grade 2 TCA Stakes in Keeneland's 6th and was sent off at even money, but gave way in the final 16th after being loose on the lead throughout. Just not good enough. I was second again, and again at a short price when Fantasy Luck was 2nd best at 4/5 in the 2nd at Santa ANita. At Belmont Favorable Outcome- who had been one of the most impressive 2yo maiden winners of the Saratoga meet - was my pick in the Grade 1 Champagne. I'd been smart enough to make Favorable Outcome a prime-time play in his debut and he'd paid a huge $9.40 so I cashed for nearly $100 that day. He was a good 5/2 price and tracked a sizzling pace into the lane before weakening to be third. Now it was time for the Tepin race. I KNEW she'd win - after beating the best European males at Royal Ascot two back and then a sharp group of North American males in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last time out, today she faced fellow fillies and mares. Of the 135 combined races run by her rivals today ONE number could match her last FIVE numbers. Even if not at her best I KNEW she'd win. But when 30/1 Photo Call, a Todd Pletcher mare bolted to front. No worries because Tepin likes to have a target. But despite average pace splits Photo Call was eight lengths ahead and I was concerned. She would have to have a complete collapse to not hold on, even if Tepin were at her best. Tepin made "a move" on the turn but it was far too late. Easily best of the rest but there was no catching Photo Call who paid over $60 to win on a $2 ticket. Eric texted me his surprise and I was equally so. This probably will cost me any chance of a profitable weekend I thought. Some of the sting was taken out when less than a half hour later Lord Nelson won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint but the 1/2 price did little for the bottom line. The eighth at Keeneland was the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity for 2yo colts with a ticket to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the line. I liked Classic Empire who had been the favorite in his most recent when he tossed his rider out of the gate. The crowd wasn't fooled nor dissuaded by the eleven post. He made a bold move on the turn and ran away as much the best - impressive as the 8/5 favorite.
I was happy that Eric should have that one, even if it was a short price. In the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont I thought Effinex looked much the best and he was the 6/5 favorite. But he was caught in the shadow of the wire by Bob Baffert's Hoppertunity. Second for me, again. The 9th at Keeneland was the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. I had thought this was where Tepin would run today and she would have been a prohibitive favorite, as this was not a strong field of milers. But with her in the First Lady, trainer Graham Motion sent his filly, Miss Temple City here to take on the boys rather than face Tepin. Ironically, he'd done the same thing in the spring when Tepin ran in, and won, the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, and Miss Temple City had upset the boys in the Grade 1 Makers' Mark Mile. In fact that race had earned her a lifetime best speed figure. She was coming in her off of back to back troubled trips and with the field being far from formidable I thought she had a good chance to upset the field. She immediately was in a good stalking position and as they went down the backside I could tell that the rider had plenty of horse under him. I began to get excited because I knew I had a very real chance of getting the upset. Out of the turn she was let loose and she opened up by four lengths. She seemed home free when here came a late running closer just FLYING on the outside. Too little, too late - Miss Temple City had sprung the upset! And check out the price!
Even better, I'd doubled the bet so I would be cashing for $87 - that took a lot of the sting out of the Tepin loss and I was excited to think that Eric would have the upset winner. In the finale at Keeneland Commandeering was second as the 9/5 favorite end my day at Keeneland with a record of three for eight and a two dollar bet on them would have cost $16 and returned nearly $30. I texted Eric and told him I hoped he had stuck with the picks and was rewarded. He texted back how disappointed he was because he had planned to bet $40 and $60 on those two winners but his friends had wanted to leave early so he didn't get to make the bets - cost him over $500 and he'd missed the earlier winner on the day. What a disappointment, but a great track story! My day ended late that evening when Om was second best in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile on the turf.
Sunday October 9
The final day of the weekend and I was at first undecided about playing just the single race I was interested in or the entire card. And then it was decided when I recalled that the deal with my new online account, Xpressbet.com is that any DRF card of past performances I download is FREE if I make at least one $2 investment. Well, I knew that was going to happen so I got the past performances Saturday morning prior to the start of GameDay on ESPN and handicapped the card. Nothing in either the first or the third and my pick in the 2nd, Winkadatdawat was fourth at 3/1. In the fourth we were traveling seven furlongs on the main track in a Maiden Special for two-year-olds. I liked both of the two runners who formed a powerful entry for Mark Casse, but it appeared that only one would run with one stuck on the also eligible list. And fortunately for me I liked Speedmeister the best of the two He had been purchased by owner John Oxley for a huge $650K at the Fasig-Tipton sales and had a sizzling work over the Churchill Downs main track going a wicked :59.3 in a best-of-26 move. With Julian Leparoux riding, who seems to always do his best work here (except for the Tepin ride yesterday, grrrrrrr) I thought I had a good chance to score. He tracked the pace four wide (being an entry he was NOT in the 1-slot, but instead posted in gate #9) into the turn and when Leparoux let him loose he took off as TONS the best!
And at a generous $6.40 price I was cashing for over $30 on my first winner of this Sunday afternoon. I was disappointed in the fifth when Imperia looked easily best on paper and was the DRF Byron King's Best Bet of the afternoon. This was an entry level allowance going 9 1/2 furlongs on the turf. His last two figures were better than any of the 59 numbers run by his rivals. But the rider kept him inside in a bulky field and he was trapped behind horses through the turn, but found room into the stretch; then when given a chance he took off, only to have to slam on the brakes, and then check sharply a second time in deep stretch. Remarkable he was third as the 3/2 favorite considering all the traffic issues. In the sixth I couldn't find any 2yo in this 2-lifetime allowance that caught my fancy. The 7th was a third level allowance-optional claiming and I liked Kathballu who appeared to be a sister or daughter to multiple graded stakes winning Kathmandu who had been a favorite filly of mine several years ago. She had experience over the track and though she'd not won, both were sharp efforts including a near-miss in the Grade 2 Raven's Run last fall. She was sent off as the 8/5 favorite and stalked the pace in fourth to the turn. She glided up easily three wide, and then despite being fanned five wide into the lane she accelerated past her rivals and drew off with authority! WHOOO HOOOO - two wins and again, at a fair price.
I had doubled the bet, so the $5.20 payoff generated a return to me of nearly $30! The eighth was the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf for juvenile colts. Ticonderoga was my pick and he was the 4/5 favorite for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. But while making what looked like a winning move into the stretch he began weaving around and was gawking at the grandstand. Castellano tried to straighten the colt out but he continued to run greenly the length of the stretch and it cost him the race as he was a fast closing second when he finally got into gear. The final play of the day was the BET of the Day - in the featured Grade 1 Spinster. This race is typically a big prep for the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but this year while the winner would have to be considered, it's clear that undefeated three-year-old sensation Songbird WILL be the odds-on favorite in the Distaff and either Beholder or Stellar Wind will be the second choice with the other most likely being the third choice. But today belonged to I'm A Chatterbox. I did not want to see her on the lead and as they hit the first turn she was trying to make the lead, but jockey Florent Geroux smartly kept her outside, letting her drift into the three path so the speed horse on the rail would get to the front. Chatterbox tracked her while full of run to the far turn and when allowed to run she sprinted clear under a hand ride as T-O-N-S the best. Easy-peasy-pie!
I cashed for over $40 on my final win of the day. For the day I finished an outstanding 6/3-1-1 and a nice profit. For the weekend I was 10-for-28, an excellent 38% on the weekend.
And now it's off to France and my solo Viking River Cruise! See ya' later!
Click here to follow my river cruise adventure
And at a generous $6.40 price I was cashing for over $30 on my first winner of this Sunday afternoon. I was disappointed in the fifth when Imperia looked easily best on paper and was the DRF Byron King's Best Bet of the afternoon. This was an entry level allowance going 9 1/2 furlongs on the turf. His last two figures were better than any of the 59 numbers run by his rivals. But the rider kept him inside in a bulky field and he was trapped behind horses through the turn, but found room into the stretch; then when given a chance he took off, only to have to slam on the brakes, and then check sharply a second time in deep stretch. Remarkable he was third as the 3/2 favorite considering all the traffic issues. In the sixth I couldn't find any 2yo in this 2-lifetime allowance that caught my fancy. The 7th was a third level allowance-optional claiming and I liked Kathballu who appeared to be a sister or daughter to multiple graded stakes winning Kathmandu who had been a favorite filly of mine several years ago. She had experience over the track and though she'd not won, both were sharp efforts including a near-miss in the Grade 2 Raven's Run last fall. She was sent off as the 8/5 favorite and stalked the pace in fourth to the turn. She glided up easily three wide, and then despite being fanned five wide into the lane she accelerated past her rivals and drew off with authority! WHOOO HOOOO - two wins and again, at a fair price.
I had doubled the bet, so the $5.20 payoff generated a return to me of nearly $30! The eighth was the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf for juvenile colts. Ticonderoga was my pick and he was the 4/5 favorite for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. But while making what looked like a winning move into the stretch he began weaving around and was gawking at the grandstand. Castellano tried to straighten the colt out but he continued to run greenly the length of the stretch and it cost him the race as he was a fast closing second when he finally got into gear. The final play of the day was the BET of the Day - in the featured Grade 1 Spinster. This race is typically a big prep for the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but this year while the winner would have to be considered, it's clear that undefeated three-year-old sensation Songbird WILL be the odds-on favorite in the Distaff and either Beholder or Stellar Wind will be the second choice with the other most likely being the third choice. But today belonged to I'm A Chatterbox. I did not want to see her on the lead and as they hit the first turn she was trying to make the lead, but jockey Florent Geroux smartly kept her outside, letting her drift into the three path so the speed horse on the rail would get to the front. Chatterbox tracked her while full of run to the far turn and when allowed to run she sprinted clear under a hand ride as T-O-N-S the best. Easy-peasy-pie!
I cashed for over $40 on my final win of the day. For the day I finished an outstanding 6/3-1-1 and a nice profit. For the weekend I was 10-for-28, an excellent 38% on the weekend.
And now it's off to France and my solo Viking River Cruise! See ya' later!
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