July 8 - 12
One of my most favorite tracks is Keeneland in Lexington. In fact, when I retired the very, VERY first trip I took following my long-planned "I'm going to be at Saratoga on the first day of school" retirement trip was to Keeneland. That trip I flew up early in the morning, went to lunch, the track, right across the street to the airport and flew home arriving around midnight! I've since been back for a Breeders' Cup in 2015 and a fall track day in 2019 when I met Keith there. And now we're looking forward to the 2020 Breeders' Cup weekend there this coming November. Keeneland runs two meets each year, both for about three weeks - one in the spring, one in the fall. But with the pandemic the spring meet was cancelled. Because of the importance of racing in Lexington the powers that be in Kentucky negotiated to have a special, five-day boutique summer meet this past week with racing from Wednesday through Sunday. The highlight being graded stakes on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Originally my plan had been to only handicap the races for Friday-Sunday since Monmouth opened a week ago, but this special meet caused me to add on the two earlier days of the week to my racing week. Here's how it played out.....
Wednesday July 8: Opening Day at Keeneland
Not only was it a big day for racing, but for the TVG hosts they actually got to be on the grounds at Keeneland and you could tell they were all thrilled to be AT the races. I looked through the nine race card and after handicapping the races I had some surprising thoughts. First, the build up to this special summer meet had been that they were literally jamming the best of the spring meet into five days. So, my first "Hmmm" moment came when I saw there were only nine races. Seems to me like we'd have at least ten to twelve if we're trying to fit the best of three weeks into five days. Then second, as I went through the card, at the half way point of five races I'd looked at FOUR maiden events and one starter optional claiming sprint. Hardly "the best of" racing. But, I found six horses that I liked. Missed in the opener when my horse just didn't run. In the second EVERYONE liked Heaven's Whisper. As I noted, it would be really REALLY hard to look elsewhere. She'd won three of four at today's six furlong distance and two of those came against far richer than this starter called for. And she'd already beaten three of the five she was lining up against here (the other two were obvious toss outs). Went off as the prohibitive 1/5 chalk. Was behind horses into the lane, but found a seam around the furlong pole....burst through and ran away as much the best.
Missed in a 2yo MSW and in the first turf event when my 3/1 second choice just didn't have any punch as they turned for home. Passed the fifth and then in the sixth I noted it would be all about the trip in this entry level allowance. In this spot I thought Chad Brown's $850K son of Pioneerof The Nile looked the most talented. He'd begun with three dirt tries, although after the debut in a dirt sprint, the next two had been originally carded for the turf. After a sixteen month layoff he came back and ran a new career top in his first turf try at Gulfstream. He shipped to Churchill and topped that figure when he closed down that MSW event in a dominant performance. It was a better effort than it looked as he was wide AND had to close into a soft pace. With a legitimate set-up he looked good under Tyler Gaffalione. He got a good inside trip to the top of the lane but had no where to go. Gaffalione urged him to muscle his way out and he did, now some half dozen off the leader and at least four wide with time running out. But with a big acceleration he burst to the front in the shadow of the wire for the highlight of the day.
Missed with a 9/1 longshot in my final play who ran a credible third.
Thursday July 9
Another nine race card with four maiden events, a nw2L claiming event, a straight claimer and two allowance races. Passed the 2yo opener, was 2nd at 2/1 after dueling three wide in the second. Belated fifth in the third at 5/2 and passed the fourth. The fifth I was too far back and finished fourth at 5/2. The sixth was a MSW event and I noted I wouldn't be surprised if any of these won the race, but I liked the chances of debut runner Palio Flag sent out by Steve Asmussen. The $350K daughter of champion Curlin had blistered a June 9th bullet move HERE at Keeneland in a swift :59.4. Nicely drawn on the outside I thought she could be any kind. She broke sharply and pressed the pace three-wide to the stretch, then accelerated to the front and held my second choice safe (who was the 3/2 post time favorite). Best of all 'Flag went off at a nice 4/1 so I cashed for over $50 on my first win of the day!
Missed when blocked through the far turn with the 9/5 choice in the 7th in a turf allowance and then we came to what I thought was a strong second level allowance race. I knew/thought Dos Vinos would go favored, but despite the balance in the race I thought she had a lot of upside. She had two wins, a second, and a third in four starts. She had been sharp in her debut then improved significantly in her next start. Today - like then - she was second off the bench. She had worked sharply for today and indeed she was bet down to 4/5. Pressed into the stretch, took the lead and held on for the win to close out my Thursday.
Friday July 10
Nothing - not a single win. 2nd at 6/5....8th at 4/5 (wow) ....4th at 9/5...5th at 6/1...and fifth at 2/1. A long day. And adding to the down side of the day, a tropical storm swept up the east coast and New Jersey got slammed with rain and wind, so Monmouth canceled for the day. Oh well....
Saturday July 11: Super Stakes Saturday
I knew going into today I had several star runners on my sheet who were VERY likely winners. But they wouldn't pay much. Almost put it on my selection sheet for my "followers" that I knew and anticipated this. In the first pick of the day, I dueled as the 3/2 favorite and just missed to be second. Missed with a price play and then had my first very legitimate pick. At Monmouth in their second, it was a six furlong sprint for non-winners of three lifetime. Morgantown was the ONLY runner in the field who had never been in a conditioned event AND had Paco Lopez on board. Listed at a hugely overinflated 7/2 in the program I rhetorically asked, could we really get anything but odds-on at post time? AND he'd had two blistering bullets at Belmont while dropping in for a first time tag (and first time conditioned tag) today. Chased a 20/1 longshot to the top of the lane, then couldn't get by! Grinding away, heads up and heads down.....PHOTO FINISH.
Whew, not the way you'd expect an even money shot to run, but I cashed for $30 on my triple investment. Thought I had a "Day-Maker" in the second at Keeneland with Directional at 8/1 in the program. Bet down to 4/1 he was 7th when tiring badly into the far turn. Picked up my second win of the day back on the Jersey Shore when Never Enough Time went wire to wire as the 3/2 favorite in a second level allowance. Interestingly Paco was NOT up, but one of the other top riders, Antonio Gallardo.
Third at 6/5, 8th at 2/1 (wow), 2nd at 4/5 and 3rd at 1/2 followed before it was time for the first of the BIG bets in one of the big graded events. In November of 2019 we were at the Breeders' Cup in Louisville at Churchill Downs and one of my two big wins came on Monomoy Girl in the Distaff. She was out all of last year and returned with a sharp allowance win to kick off her 5yo season about a month ago. She was entered today in Belmont's Grade 2 Ruffian going a one-turn mile. She laid over the four rivals and if even 80% she'd win today. I made her the "Belmont Best" and she lived up to the hype. Pressed the leader into the turn, took over willingly and opened up in the stretch. Ran evenly to the wire - just hard enough to get something out of the race, not too taxing that it would set back her progression to the next race as she points towards the Breeders' Cup.
After a miss in a 2yo MSW at Delaware it was time for the next big bet, the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland going seven furlongs. One of the best races of the year that I've seen and wagered on! The way the race appeared to set up was with the lightning quick Amy's Challenge on the outside and my pick, Chad Brown's ultra-talented Guarana on the rail. I thought jockey Jose Ortiz would let 'Amy get to the front, ease to her hip and then have to fend off the closing Mia Mischief. And let me say at this point, Mia Mischief is one of my favorite fillies...it was hard to pick against her, but I think Guarana is really something special. The gates opened and Guarana - who often is in front - easily made the front. About one hundred yards out it was obvious that going today's seven furlong trip, the connections - or at least the rider of Amy's Challenge - had decided to take back as she was under a strangle hold. Immediately the dynamics of the race flow changed. Mia Mischief came to prompt Guarana and when the opening quarter went in :23 and change I thought I was home free. The half mile was a quick :45 and change with Guarana still a half length in front. But as they swung out of the turn Mia Mischief accelerated and was half a length in front with Guarana pinned on the rail. I thought "good for her," but was disappointed that I would lose my bet. Then Guarana showed why she truly is so special. She dug in, fought back and surged to the front in the shadow of the wire. Watch the video highlights - much more exciting than I can put into words. Just a "WOW" race for the day.
I was happy to get 1-2 odds on her as I thought she looked MUCH the best. Ran 2nd in a Delaware sprint stake at 7/5 and then missed in easily the most competitive race of the day, the 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint in the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland. Following a third at 6/5 on the Jersey Shore I had to make a decision on my next graded stakes. At Delaware Park the highlight came in the eighth in their signature race, the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap. But preceding that was the Grade 3 RG Dick Memorial going 11 furlongs on the grass. I had a pick, but with the storm yesterday we were off the turf. My second choice was still in and was being well bet so I pulled up the past performances. I saw that (a) Gentle Ruler had won this race last year, on the turf, and (b) she'd run well on the dirt previously. I tagged along and kept my bet at the same triple investment level. Into the backstretch the second choice was all and I mean ALL alone on the front setting a very slow pace. I kept wondering when my rider would move from fifth, well back. As they began the run to the far turn he let her go. Quickly she moved with the fourth choice and came to the front runner. I blew right on by on the inside, the rival on the outside and the race was on! They dueled for about a furlong before Gentle Ruler edged clear to give me my fifth win on the afternoon, and third in a graded stakes.
I was really surprised when Venetian Harbor when right to the front and set a measured pace in the Grade 1 Ashland but could not hold off the second choice, runner-up but well clear of the rest. The feature at Monmouth was the Blue Sparkler set for 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. But we were off the inner course, yet my top pick, Shippy was still in the race. I decided to wait until the betting began to make a choice on playing or not. She looked to be taking a lot of money in all the pools so I decided to play, and because she was being well played, with Paco Lopez up, I doubled the bet. She wired the field while being well held through the stretch. I was so proud of myself for doubling the bet. THEN I looked at what I'd written, ".....UP the investment if this is off the turf....." If only I'd looked :) But I was glad I had scored and actually HAD upped the bet.
Minutes later it was time for THE Bet of the Day. Chad Brown's very talented filly, Dunbar Road was the star attraction in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap. I wrote in my analysis that after her comeback win in a listed event at Churchill Downs you HAD to believe she'd move forward today. And a sharp bullet work for this seemed to confirm this. Jockey Irad Ortiz had her saving ground approaching the far turn and appeared pinned in. But a seam opened between rivals and he moved three wide into the lane. He as immediately challenged by a longshot, but she easily disposed of that one and opened up in hand to win as tons the best. My third straight BIG BET winner.
Less than ten minutes later it was time for the last graded stakes on this big afternoon of racing. I honestly WOULD have made Chad Brown's Rushing Fall as big a bet as any of the first three wins, but I was reluctant to bet on how jockey Javier Castellano would ride her. She'd gone right to the front in her comeback race in the Grade 3 Beaugay, and while she had shown she didn't need to lead, I was afraid Castellano might try to steal it, be faced with pressure and not yield. So I only tripled the bet. I've often written about Castellano and my poor opinion of many of his rides in recent years after being THE best jockey in the country for several years. But today, he truly gave a Hall of Fame ride to his filly. Sat just off the pace setter so she couldn't get away, made his move at exactly the right moment so the closers were quickly distanced and had too much ground to make up. It was a piece of artistry how he rode today. And it was a very significant win for the filly....she now has won a Grade 1 race at two, three, four, and age five. Only two others can make that statement. Looks like SHE is headed to the Hall of Fame. Great fun.
From that point, about 5 pm, until 8:30 pm I had only a couple of minor bets so Kim and I had dinner and watched TV, then I watched the replays. Missed on all four. But the day was exactly as I thought - star attractions winning with big bets on them, but difficult to make money that way.
Sunday July 12: Closing Day at Keeneland
I had picks at both Monmouth and Keeneland on this Sunday. I thought after the winless Friday and then the "ok" day overall on Saturday I might have a big day today. Missed on the first two then seemed hopelessly out of it in the third at Monmouth when Noble Hope was shut off and then trapped behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch. Inside the 16th pole I probably still would have sold you my ticket by she suddenly found multiple other gears and blew by to win going away. Another race WELL worth watching the highlights for.
From that point at 1:45 until past 4:30 I got nothing. So Kim and I went out to dinner in Coral Springs at one of our favorite Italian places.
Came back to watch my last two races on the day, the two featured races. In the 9th at Monmouth I liked Another Miracle in the 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint, the My Frenchman. Here was my analysis....
Sat in mid-pack to the top of the lane, made a bold move down the middle of the course and ran right by the leaders. As I watched the replay on the TVG broadcast I'd recorded while we were out, the odds were not displayed. When I fast forwarded to when they posted the results I was amazed he'd gone off at a generous 9/2 price and I collected nearly $25. WHOOO HOOOO.
The final pick of the day was the closing day feature at Keeneland and the last race of the shortened meeting, the Grade 2 Elkhorn going a mile and a half on the turf. I thought that Zulu Alpha was clearly, and I mean CLEARLY the horse to beat IF he ran back to his first two wins of the year in Gulfstream graded events. He'd been a bit dull in his most recent. I thought there was enough reason to overlook that and believed he would run big. But in the pre-race analysis before the day began when hottie Gabby Gaudet and TVG analyst Scott Hazelton reviewed the race they talked about a "key scratch" in the race that would probably make the pace a lot slower. That would make Zulu Alpha's task more difficult. But I stuck with him. Heading towards the far turn it was indeed a pedestrian pace and he WAS well back. But he began to make his move and pick off horses. Four wide into the lane he had dead aim on the longshot front runner, but that one had something left. But inside the final sixteenth Zulu Alpha nailed him and blew by. He was my "BEST" of the day and closed down the day, the week, and the Keeneland meet in style.
Missed with a 9/1 longshot in my final play who ran a credible third.
Thursday July 9
Another nine race card with four maiden events, a nw2L claiming event, a straight claimer and two allowance races. Passed the 2yo opener, was 2nd at 2/1 after dueling three wide in the second. Belated fifth in the third at 5/2 and passed the fourth. The fifth I was too far back and finished fourth at 5/2. The sixth was a MSW event and I noted I wouldn't be surprised if any of these won the race, but I liked the chances of debut runner Palio Flag sent out by Steve Asmussen. The $350K daughter of champion Curlin had blistered a June 9th bullet move HERE at Keeneland in a swift :59.4. Nicely drawn on the outside I thought she could be any kind. She broke sharply and pressed the pace three-wide to the stretch, then accelerated to the front and held my second choice safe (who was the 3/2 post time favorite). Best of all 'Flag went off at a nice 4/1 so I cashed for over $50 on my first win of the day!
Missed when blocked through the far turn with the 9/5 choice in the 7th in a turf allowance and then we came to what I thought was a strong second level allowance race. I knew/thought Dos Vinos would go favored, but despite the balance in the race I thought she had a lot of upside. She had two wins, a second, and a third in four starts. She had been sharp in her debut then improved significantly in her next start. Today - like then - she was second off the bench. She had worked sharply for today and indeed she was bet down to 4/5. Pressed into the stretch, took the lead and held on for the win to close out my Thursday.
Friday July 10
Nothing - not a single win. 2nd at 6/5....8th at 4/5 (wow) ....4th at 9/5...5th at 6/1...and fifth at 2/1. A long day. And adding to the down side of the day, a tropical storm swept up the east coast and New Jersey got slammed with rain and wind, so Monmouth canceled for the day. Oh well....
Saturday July 11: Super Stakes Saturday
I knew going into today I had several star runners on my sheet who were VERY likely winners. But they wouldn't pay much. Almost put it on my selection sheet for my "followers" that I knew and anticipated this. In the first pick of the day, I dueled as the 3/2 favorite and just missed to be second. Missed with a price play and then had my first very legitimate pick. At Monmouth in their second, it was a six furlong sprint for non-winners of three lifetime. Morgantown was the ONLY runner in the field who had never been in a conditioned event AND had Paco Lopez on board. Listed at a hugely overinflated 7/2 in the program I rhetorically asked, could we really get anything but odds-on at post time? AND he'd had two blistering bullets at Belmont while dropping in for a first time tag (and first time conditioned tag) today. Chased a 20/1 longshot to the top of the lane, then couldn't get by! Grinding away, heads up and heads down.....PHOTO FINISH.
Whew, not the way you'd expect an even money shot to run, but I cashed for $30 on my triple investment. Thought I had a "Day-Maker" in the second at Keeneland with Directional at 8/1 in the program. Bet down to 4/1 he was 7th when tiring badly into the far turn. Picked up my second win of the day back on the Jersey Shore when Never Enough Time went wire to wire as the 3/2 favorite in a second level allowance. Interestingly Paco was NOT up, but one of the other top riders, Antonio Gallardo.
Third at 6/5, 8th at 2/1 (wow), 2nd at 4/5 and 3rd at 1/2 followed before it was time for the first of the BIG bets in one of the big graded events. In November of 2019 we were at the Breeders' Cup in Louisville at Churchill Downs and one of my two big wins came on Monomoy Girl in the Distaff. She was out all of last year and returned with a sharp allowance win to kick off her 5yo season about a month ago. She was entered today in Belmont's Grade 2 Ruffian going a one-turn mile. She laid over the four rivals and if even 80% she'd win today. I made her the "Belmont Best" and she lived up to the hype. Pressed the leader into the turn, took over willingly and opened up in the stretch. Ran evenly to the wire - just hard enough to get something out of the race, not too taxing that it would set back her progression to the next race as she points towards the Breeders' Cup.
After a miss in a 2yo MSW at Delaware it was time for the next big bet, the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland going seven furlongs. One of the best races of the year that I've seen and wagered on! The way the race appeared to set up was with the lightning quick Amy's Challenge on the outside and my pick, Chad Brown's ultra-talented Guarana on the rail. I thought jockey Jose Ortiz would let 'Amy get to the front, ease to her hip and then have to fend off the closing Mia Mischief. And let me say at this point, Mia Mischief is one of my favorite fillies...it was hard to pick against her, but I think Guarana is really something special. The gates opened and Guarana - who often is in front - easily made the front. About one hundred yards out it was obvious that going today's seven furlong trip, the connections - or at least the rider of Amy's Challenge - had decided to take back as she was under a strangle hold. Immediately the dynamics of the race flow changed. Mia Mischief came to prompt Guarana and when the opening quarter went in :23 and change I thought I was home free. The half mile was a quick :45 and change with Guarana still a half length in front. But as they swung out of the turn Mia Mischief accelerated and was half a length in front with Guarana pinned on the rail. I thought "good for her," but was disappointed that I would lose my bet. Then Guarana showed why she truly is so special. She dug in, fought back and surged to the front in the shadow of the wire. Watch the video highlights - much more exciting than I can put into words. Just a "WOW" race for the day.
I was happy to get 1-2 odds on her as I thought she looked MUCH the best. Ran 2nd in a Delaware sprint stake at 7/5 and then missed in easily the most competitive race of the day, the 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint in the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland. Following a third at 6/5 on the Jersey Shore I had to make a decision on my next graded stakes. At Delaware Park the highlight came in the eighth in their signature race, the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap. But preceding that was the Grade 3 RG Dick Memorial going 11 furlongs on the grass. I had a pick, but with the storm yesterday we were off the turf. My second choice was still in and was being well bet so I pulled up the past performances. I saw that (a) Gentle Ruler had won this race last year, on the turf, and (b) she'd run well on the dirt previously. I tagged along and kept my bet at the same triple investment level. Into the backstretch the second choice was all and I mean ALL alone on the front setting a very slow pace. I kept wondering when my rider would move from fifth, well back. As they began the run to the far turn he let her go. Quickly she moved with the fourth choice and came to the front runner. I blew right on by on the inside, the rival on the outside and the race was on! They dueled for about a furlong before Gentle Ruler edged clear to give me my fifth win on the afternoon, and third in a graded stakes.
I was really surprised when Venetian Harbor when right to the front and set a measured pace in the Grade 1 Ashland but could not hold off the second choice, runner-up but well clear of the rest. The feature at Monmouth was the Blue Sparkler set for 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. But we were off the inner course, yet my top pick, Shippy was still in the race. I decided to wait until the betting began to make a choice on playing or not. She looked to be taking a lot of money in all the pools so I decided to play, and because she was being well played, with Paco Lopez up, I doubled the bet. She wired the field while being well held through the stretch. I was so proud of myself for doubling the bet. THEN I looked at what I'd written, ".....UP the investment if this is off the turf....." If only I'd looked :) But I was glad I had scored and actually HAD upped the bet.
Minutes later it was time for THE Bet of the Day. Chad Brown's very talented filly, Dunbar Road was the star attraction in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap. I wrote in my analysis that after her comeback win in a listed event at Churchill Downs you HAD to believe she'd move forward today. And a sharp bullet work for this seemed to confirm this. Jockey Irad Ortiz had her saving ground approaching the far turn and appeared pinned in. But a seam opened between rivals and he moved three wide into the lane. He as immediately challenged by a longshot, but she easily disposed of that one and opened up in hand to win as tons the best. My third straight BIG BET winner.
Less than ten minutes later it was time for the last graded stakes on this big afternoon of racing. I honestly WOULD have made Chad Brown's Rushing Fall as big a bet as any of the first three wins, but I was reluctant to bet on how jockey Javier Castellano would ride her. She'd gone right to the front in her comeback race in the Grade 3 Beaugay, and while she had shown she didn't need to lead, I was afraid Castellano might try to steal it, be faced with pressure and not yield. So I only tripled the bet. I've often written about Castellano and my poor opinion of many of his rides in recent years after being THE best jockey in the country for several years. But today, he truly gave a Hall of Fame ride to his filly. Sat just off the pace setter so she couldn't get away, made his move at exactly the right moment so the closers were quickly distanced and had too much ground to make up. It was a piece of artistry how he rode today. And it was a very significant win for the filly....she now has won a Grade 1 race at two, three, four, and age five. Only two others can make that statement. Looks like SHE is headed to the Hall of Fame. Great fun.
From that point, about 5 pm, until 8:30 pm I had only a couple of minor bets so Kim and I had dinner and watched TV, then I watched the replays. Missed on all four. But the day was exactly as I thought - star attractions winning with big bets on them, but difficult to make money that way.
Sunday July 12: Closing Day at Keeneland
I had picks at both Monmouth and Keeneland on this Sunday. I thought after the winless Friday and then the "ok" day overall on Saturday I might have a big day today. Missed on the first two then seemed hopelessly out of it in the third at Monmouth when Noble Hope was shut off and then trapped behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch. Inside the 16th pole I probably still would have sold you my ticket by she suddenly found multiple other gears and blew by to win going away. Another race WELL worth watching the highlights for.
From that point at 1:45 until past 4:30 I got nothing. So Kim and I went out to dinner in Coral Springs at one of our favorite Italian places.
Came back to watch my last two races on the day, the two featured races. In the 9th at Monmouth I liked Another Miracle in the 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint, the My Frenchman. Here was my analysis....
Sat in mid-pack to the top of the lane, made a bold move down the middle of the course and ran right by the leaders. As I watched the replay on the TVG broadcast I'd recorded while we were out, the odds were not displayed. When I fast forwarded to when they posted the results I was amazed he'd gone off at a generous 9/2 price and I collected nearly $25. WHOOO HOOOO.
The final pick of the day was the closing day feature at Keeneland and the last race of the shortened meeting, the Grade 2 Elkhorn going a mile and a half on the turf. I thought that Zulu Alpha was clearly, and I mean CLEARLY the horse to beat IF he ran back to his first two wins of the year in Gulfstream graded events. He'd been a bit dull in his most recent. I thought there was enough reason to overlook that and believed he would run big. But in the pre-race analysis before the day began when hottie Gabby Gaudet and TVG analyst Scott Hazelton reviewed the race they talked about a "key scratch" in the race that would probably make the pace a lot slower. That would make Zulu Alpha's task more difficult. But I stuck with him. Heading towards the far turn it was indeed a pedestrian pace and he WAS well back. But he began to make his move and pick off horses. Four wide into the lane he had dead aim on the longshot front runner, but that one had something left. But inside the final sixteenth Zulu Alpha nailed him and blew by. He was my "BEST" of the day and closed down the day, the week, and the Keeneland meet in style.
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