Preakness Weekend

 May 14 - 15

It was a "good" weekend overall as I hit for better than 30% of my selections, but much like Derby weekend, the "Ladies' Day" on Friday was much better than the Saturday results.  The extended weekend started on Wednesday when Kim and I drove to Cape Coral.  Thursday night was Jeff's high school football inter-squad game and we were going.  We drove separately so Kim could continue on up to Englewood to visit her family while I returned home for the racing.  Got to eat at our most favorite spot in Cape Coral, Ford's Garage on Wednesday.  Then on Thursday right as the players were about to finish warming up the lightning warning sounded so the players and all fans had to go inside for 30 min.  After about 25 minutes it sounded again, then it POURED down rain.  Game called, sigh.  Went out to eat with the coaches and that was a great time.  Friday morning we left for our separate destinations and I was home by 10 am for an 11:30 am post time.

Black Eyed Susan Day
The opener was a nine furlong turf event for a $12.5K tag and I didn't have much confidence in anyone so I passed.....won by a 7/1 deep closer I would not have considered, wise decision.  The second was a two-turn allowance and I had a play who went off as the second choice at 2/1 but was never a threat, finishing a well beaten sixth.  Third was a maiden event that I couldn't even find anyone to write about; how the winner was sent off at only 3/1 is beyond me.  As I wrote in my analysis of the fourth, I'm a big believer in the human element while acknowledging that the horse runs the race.  So for me, while Prodigious Bay looked like a solid win bet, I was unwilling to go in for more than the minimum as the barn held a woeful 0-for-15 mark with runners making their second start off a layoff like he was.  Sent off as the 8/5 favorite, jockey Joel Rosario sent him right to the field and was never threatened.  Had my first winner of the weekend.

The fifth was a turf sprint under allowance conditions.  The ONLY thing that prevented Beantown Baby from being a "big bet" was that all his wins had come for a tag.  BUT, since moving to the grass every one of his five starts had earned numbers that would win today.  Three wins for a tag when CLEARLY the class of the field, and two allowance tries where he was a best-of-the-rest second in both.  Tracked the pace in third, swept to the front and opened up, then was ridden out to a comfortable win with my triple investment on boar - WHOOO HOOO.

The sixth looked like a good betting race, and while I recognized that the DRF morning line is far from accurate, I still thought I'd get a "fair" price on Wonderwherecraigis.  The colt debuted with a win at Laurel, then came back off a short break to win in allowance company.  Shipped to Belmont and just missed in a listed event before concluding his sophomore season with a solid fourth in the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga.  So the issue was the layoff.  The top three from that graded event ALL came back to win and 'Craig had fired off the bench both times, so I thought he was the one to beat.  Doubled the bet.  He went right to the front, pressured into the far turn, then opened up willingly and once he hit the stretch he accelerated in a very impressive performance that probably sends him to stakes company next time out.

Was just delighted that he paid a very generous $7.20 allowing me to cash for nearly $40, and suddenly I'm three for four and having a wonderful day!  The seventh was an allowance event on the turf, and again I couldn't find anyone to even comment on.  As I did write, you COULD make a case for several, but all the better numbers were earned on the dirt.  Just watched as the winner held on in a three-way photo at 13/1....with the runner-up at 5/2 and the show at 14/1.  Many years ago as part of my "undergraduate studies" I read in a handicapping book that sometimes, "the best bet is a NO BET when you recognize that what YOU KNOW is that you DON'T KNOW" - good advice that has served me well on many occasions, like this one :)  The eighth was the first of the stakes events and it was the Grade 3 Allaire DuPont Distaff going nine furlongs.  In my analysis here I commented that the pick here was more about the PROMISE on Spice Is Nice than on what she'd accomplished to date.  Her debut as a 3yo at Gulfstream was ultra-impressive.  So much so that trainer Todd Pletcher sent her to the Grade 2 Davona Dale in her second start, first time winners.  I thought she could have won, but she was defeated by a more experienced, multiple stakes winner.  Note she was the favorite that day.  So when she came back in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.  Disappointed again.  Came back off the bench to win a Belmont allowance, then tried the Grade 1 Alabama where she was defeated by multiple stakes winner Swiss Skydiver - who subsequently beat the boys in the Gr 1 Preakness last October.  She returned off the shelf to win at Keeneland despite the short stretch of that 8 1/2 furlong event, and I thought she was ready for a breakout performance.  The one to beat, and the post time favorite was Bill Mott's Horologist who was 2-for-3 at the distance.  And, since moving into Mott's care she won three times and lost twice, but those were in the Grade 1 La Troienne and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, both times to champion Monomoy Girl.  Spice Is Nice pressed the leader to the turn, edged to the front and drove home to win by daylight.  Horologist was the favorite and was an even fourth.  The generous $6.60 payoff allowed me to cash AGAIN - this time for over $30.  I'm having a VERY good day!

The four race win streak came to an end when Catch A Bid was off slowly and rallied belatedly for fifth in the The Very One Stakes going five furlongs on the turf.  The tenth was the Grade 3 Miss Preakness for three-year-old fillies, sprinting six furlongs.  And the concern for me here was that, as is the case at all the Stronach tracks (and most major venues), in stakes company the anti-bleeding medication Lasix is prohibited now.  So which of these fillies would run their race without being treated.  Although it was a question for all of them, including my top choice, at least Red Ghost had won at first asking at Saratoga - both big plus marks - without the medication.  Toss the next when trying longer, on the turf, against winners, and over the undulating Kentucky Downs course.  Last out she scored again, but WITH Lasix and in a non-winners of two lifetime allowance.  She'd wired the field in her debut but came from off it last out.  I thought she was a legitimate contender here.  Went right to the front, but turning for home she lost the lead as not one but two passed her and with a sixteenth to go she was about half a length behind.  But then jockey John Velazquez continued to urge her and she found another gear.....surging....PHOTO FINISH........

OH SO CLOSE On The Wire In The Grade 3 Miss Preakness - Red Ghost (#2) On Inside

OH MY that was desperately close - even with the slow-mo replays I wasn't sure until the numbers went up.  Her $6.20 payoff led to another $15 and change into the bankroll on my FIFTH win of the afternoon.  Closed out the day with a fifth at 8/5 in the Hilltop Stakes where Javier Castellano gave the favorite one of his now-patented terrible rides, just awful; couldn't run down the front runner with favored Fearless in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special; and finally, Beautiful Gift showed little in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan when 6th at 2/1.  But those defeats did not dim the brightness of a 5-for-10 day and a clear profit.  Whoooo hoooo.

Preakness Saturday
I decided, like Derby Day two weeks ago to play two other tracks to make it a full day.  And I did try to actually go to Gulfstream.  I had looked at tickets on Wednesday and they were only $10 to sit in the grandstand, but you had to buy a minimum of two.  Wasn't sold that I was going and there were several spots open.  So Friday evening I decided since Kim wasn't home it was worth the money for TWO tickets to go out for a while.  Got online and all that were left were the tables on the apron....at $15 per seat.  OK, went to get them and for these tables the minimum purchase was four.  $60 to go out, on my own, for a couple hours?  I don't think so.  Instead I booked myself a seat in the Clubhouse at the Sunrise Simulcast Center :)  One of the "best" bets of the day was in the Pimlico opener, the Sir Barton Stakes for 3yo colts.  Bob Baffert sent out Hozier who had run 2nd in the Grade 2 Rebel behind then 3yo star Concert Tour.  But he'd failed to fire in the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby.  All the hosts on the TVG broadcast liked the lone speed horse, but to me, class outweighs cheap speed.  Jockey Joel Rosario sharply put Hozier into a pressing spot and approaching the turn moved through on the rail to take command.  THAT is why you go with the best horse and the best jockey, I thought.  But the other runner would not give in and got his nose down first to outfinish the 3/5 favorite.  WOW.  Missed again in the Grade 3 Chick Lang, Race 3 on the card when Steve Asmussen's "other" colt out sprinted the even money favorite, and my choice, Jaxon Traveler.  Back to back second place finishes.  In the fifth it was an entry level sprint for 3 and up.  Wesley Ward's Fire Sword was 8/1 in the DRF line, which was bound to be "off," but I liked how he'd beaten Keeneland maidens and then rich optional claimers at Aqueduct.  Tossed the bad effort on the Turfway synthetic, and with John Velazquez I thought he was worth the wager.  Took control early and was gone.

Went off at a more than "fair" price, and paid $9.20 enabling me to collect almost $25 on a minimum play.  And just like that I'm almost back to even on the day.  About fifteen minutes later a non-winners of two lifetime turf event at Gulfstream saw Paco Lopez take command immediately with the 8/5 favorite and never look back as Templet wired the field.

Then I hit the first "skid" of the day as I lost two at Pimlico, one at Gulfstream and three at Churchill.....the one most noteworthy loss was a race I "SHOULD" have had.  In Gulfstream's Roar Stakes, three year-olds were racing without Lasix and it was a big question mark.  Three of the six were Saffie Joseph runners and one of them had run and run well without the "juice."  But I went with the favorite who was no better than third at 2/5 while the horse I'd singled out as a "price play" for having proven to have run well under these "medical conditions" scored at 7/1.  Man, missed that one and should have had it.  I made what turned out to be a "wise decision" in the sixth at Pimlico, the James Murphy Stakes for 3yo on the turf.  Originally my BEST of the Day was Outadore in this race.  But on Friday I read that the trainer had not even shipped him to Pimlico.  Oh.  Play with the second choice or no?  Re-read my analysis before posting my picks and while T D Dance looked like a winner, that he had Javier Castellano was a real concern.  Especially after the ride he gave me yesterday.  But I decided to go in on it.  He was taking all the money so I upped the bet to a triple investment.  Sat a great trip saving ground through the turn and then there was wide-open green grass to swing into the clear.....but oh, no, NOT Castellano.  He elected to try and split horses, but there wasn't a seam.  He veered out a path but now the outside was shut off, back inside, but the rail was closed.  Briefly steadied and I'm thinking instantaneously, "YOU'VE GOT to be kidding me," but then the field opened like the Red Sea, fortunately for the Hall of Fame now questionable rider and his mount burst through to run away through the final 16th of a mile.  Whew.  Anxious moments, but I'll take the nearly $30 I collected.

Another skid followed with two at Pimlico, two at Churchill and one at Gulfstream.  Sigh.....The eleventh at Pimlico was the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint which looked pretty wide open to me.  My preference went to Special Reserve who had won back-to-back sprint events going today's six furlongs, then last time out was entered in the Grade 3 Commonwealth.  He set the pace that day and finished second.  But two very important notes about that race.....first, it was at seven furlongs and second, the winner Flagstaff exited that race to come back and win the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard (as my top choice thank you very much!).  Cutting back and the KEY race angle was good enough for a wager.  Pressed the favorite into the turn, took over and then took off as clearly the best of this field.  And best of all....paid a handsome $9.80, so I cashed for almost $25.  The second "should have" decision of the day as it would have been nice to have doubled the bet on this price play.

Missed three more before the featured Grade 3 Louisville, my "best" of the day.  This gets the notation even though it wasn't a "prime time" play because.....early this morning my youngest son Brad texted and wanted to play today.  He wanted to send me $100 and I only had $85 in bets on the Pimlico stakes.  He asked if I had any other horses I liked NOT in stakes and I answered that if he wanted to round out the money, I'd say take my top choice at Churchill Downs, and so he did.  Arklow was clearly the best horse in here.  Of the combined two-hundred-and-fifty-two races run by his competitors today, NONE of them had run as fast as he had IN HIS LAST THREE - uh oh.  The "issue" was two-fold.  First, he was coming off the layoff and second, obviously he had bigger targets down the road.  And thus, he was not a "prime time" play.  The mile and a half journey saw him take a spot near the back through the stretch for the first time, then through the turn and on the backstretch.  But about midway down the backside under the Twin Spires he began picking off horses, and picking them off quickly.  By the time they'd entered the turn he had gone from tenth to fourth.  Five wide into the lane he was now on even terms with the leaders as jockey Florent Geroux asked him for his best.  He sprinted for home holding the rest of the field safe.  Despite the OBVIOUS class advantage he still went off at 6/5 so Brad and I cashed out for nearly $35. 

Missed on the Powder Break at Gulfstream before it was time for the Preakness.  As I told several people and wrote in my analysis....first, the field was a "stakes field," but far from a Grade 1 caliber of runners.  Second, you had to start with how you felt about the Derby winner and the "other" Baffert runner Concert Tour.  I didn't like either.  So, I felt it was a pretty wide-open race.  I went with Steve Asmussen's Midnight Bourbon who until approaching post time was the betting favorite.  He left the gate at 3/1 and had the Derby winner in his sights turning for home.  Asked for run he took command with a furlong to go and I thought I had the winner.  But then out of the blue....... several people who follow my picks, especially on the big days want to know if I have a longshot.  So in my analysis I make it a practice to include them.  For the Derby I had tabbed Mandaloun as such and he'd run second at a big 26/1 keying a nice payout for several of my "fans" who bet across the board.  With just ten minutes to post time hottie Oasis MILF Mindy's husband Nathan - a big horse racing fan and now Facebook pal, messaged me to ask first who I liked in the Preakness, and then followed that up by saying, "you know I like longshots, do you have one here" and I told him who.  So, you can guess what happened.  With a furlong to go and I'm sailing for home with the winner of the Preakness when out of the blue comes Rombauer at 11/1 who roared by to win going away.  WOW.  Two Triple Crown races in a row and I'd NAMED the longshot play.  Lots of what if I'd done....thoughts ran through my mind as he cruised by the finish line by daylight.  So for the day I had caahed on five winners, including two stakes on the Pimlico card and the "best of the day," and had enjoyed the day's worth of racing action.  But I missed out on having a day nearly as good on Saturday as I'd had on Friday.  Fortunately, Xpressbet was running the same promotion for the Preakness weekend that they'd run for the Derby weekend - any WIN bet on the Pimlico card, ALL races Friday and Saturday, up to $10, you get your money back if your selection runs second or third.  And for me I'd had that happen once on Friday and three times on Saturday so I collected a refund of $40 to boost my ROI for the weekend.

Finally, it was a nice boost to the weekend's ROI that Xpressbet offered (as did TwinSpires and TVG) that any horse you bet to win at Pimlico, ALL WEEKEND.....if they finished second or third you got your money back up to $10.  That's right in my betting wheelhouse and so I got a nice refund at the end of the weekend.  Thank you Xpressbet!

Preakness Weekend Highlights

Some fashion shots and social media hits......

The Week Between

 May 8

With the Derby weekend in the rear view mirror, and so, SO many of the "big horses" having run in the multiple stakes over the weekend there wasn't much left for this weekend as we take a brief pause before another big two days of stakes at Pimlico for the Preakness weekend.  Still, at Belmont in New York there were five graded stakes on the Saturday card.  Kim and I were driving to Orlando on Thursday to visit our grandson (and his parents) and with the lack of quality races on the calendar I only played those races on Saturday.  I was content to do that because we would be on the road most of the day Saturday when I would have been playing the races.  The first of those was the Grade 3 Runhappy Stakes for older sprinters going six furlongs.  The race looked very straight forward to me....the speed of the race would be Chateau who had won back-to-back races, including the Grade 3 Tom Fool two back before fading in the Grade 1 Carter last time out.  He COULD win, but it looked to me like Belmont Horse-for-the-Course Firenze Fire would keep him within his sights to the top of the lane then run by.  'Fire loves Belmont with a 5-for-8 resume locally and this trip is HIS distance as he's won 6-of-12 starts going three quarters of a mile.  At first I made him a triple investment, but after I'd moved on to the next race I kept thinking, "I KNOW he will win," so I went back and upped him to a "prime time" / BEST of the Day bet.  The race went exactly, EXACTLY as I'd forseen it.  Chateau, sent off at 7/5 was clear on the lead and Firenze Fire was clear in second into the far turn.  Moving into the stretch Firenze Fire caught the leader, briefly dueled with him and then ran on free and clear to the wire.  WHOOOO HOOOO.  Wishing he'd paid more than $3.80, but he was the best and I felt doubly rewarded by making him MY BEST Bet.

The sixth was the Grade 3 Beaugay going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and three of the older females exited the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  I thought any of the three, and most likely third place finisher Harvey's Little Goil COULD win, but the fact that it was a blanket finish and that the three of them were closely grouped in the top half dozen finishers that day, I was looking elsewhere.  I liked instead Chad Brown's Euro import for owner Peter Brant, Lemista.  As soon as the opening quarter was posted in a glacial :26 and change, followed by a half in :50 and three quarters in 1:15 I knew that Lemista would have to be tons the best.  She was sitting fifth of six, only four lengths back but at that pace, a couple of lengths with only a quarter of a mile to sprint is a lot of ground to make up.  Harvey's Little Goil was close up and sure enough, got the jump.  In the final 16th Lemista was making up ground but too little, too late.  THAT would have been the "Day-Maker" as it turned out because she went off at nearly 4/1 and I'd have cashed for nearly $40.  That would have turned the small profit for the weekend into a near-$50 winning weekend despite just playing six races over the two days.  Next up was the Grade 3 Vagrancy going six and a half furlongs for older fillies and mares.  Pacific Gale had won on the Pegasus World Cup undercard and provided hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney a BIG score when let go at 16/1.  But, to be fair she was working on a fifteen race losing skid at the time.  When she came back in Gulfstream's Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie and won at 4/5 I had her.  This wasn't the deepest of fields and she was on a roll so she was the bet.  The gate latch sprung and five of the six burst out....Pacific Gale jumped straight up at the start and was last, spotting the field at least three lengths.  She closed ground but could get no closer than third.  Sigh....  Next up was the Grade 3 Peter Pan going a one-turn nine furlongs at the massive Belmont oval.  I had liked Chad Brown's Risk Taking, but he scratched out to point for next weekend's Preakness.  At first glance I thought I'd pass the race, but I had liked Todd Pletcher's Promise Keeper as an alternative.  I checked the DRF analysis and handicapper Mike Beer, who rarely goes with the favorite also liked him.  A good back-up plan.  Promise Keeper tracked the leader into the lane then he and the second choice moved together, separated by less than half a length.  In the final sixteenth he edged clear to win by daylight and I had my second winner on the day.

The final Saturday bet was in the Grade 1 Man O'War.  Gufo had been one of the best 3yo in the country on turf last year and he was making his 2021 debut today.  The race was a mile and 3/8th but that was right up his alley.  Longshot (8/1) Channel Cat took control early with Gufo sitting in sixth.  As they turned for home Channel Cat was desperate for the wire.....PHOTO finish!  OHHHH so close, but he held on and I was denied a third winner.

On Sunday it's become a practice, in this "off-season" where I'm only playing on Saturday's most weeks, to look at the entries across the country to see if there is anyone I like just because I know the horse and/or they look like an "obvious" winner.  There wasn't a lot to choose from, but when I opened up the Gulfstream entries I saw Going For Gold entered in the second, a turf sprint for non-winners of three lifetime, and she was listed as 7/5 favorite.  I opened up several handicapper's selections/analysis for the Sunday card and found everyone thought she was a likely winner.  She'd missed as the 4/5 favorite for a $20K tag last time and was dropping into this $12.5K tag today.  AND as an added bonus, one of my most favorite riders, Chantal Sutherland was on board.  Pressed the pace into the turn, opened up and ran away!  Gave me a 3-for-6 weekend and a flat bet profit.  Atta boy Mark :)

Chantal had been one of my most favorite riders when she moved from Woodbine to the west coast and rode many big stakes horses for Bob Baffert.  She's an excellent rider, but she is also very pretty.  That's a big plus :)  AND she's so attractive that she's also a model.  Oh my.....and her photos, as you can see in the collage below, show off her very nice body.  Just made for a doubly rewarding win on Sunday!

I also had a "conversation" with my news girl anchor Lauren Pastrana.  LOVED the fact that she posted a picture of herself - she's such a hottie - and when I commented, while she was on the air, she replied WHILE she was on the air.  I just get the biggest kick out of that.  So here's pretty Lauren, doing the news....glances at her phone, sees "Mark Love" has commented to her, and then WHILE ON AIR she picks up her phone and says, "Mark......"  SWEET.

Derby Weekend

 Kentucky Oaks / Kentucky Derby Weekend

April 30 - May 1, 2021

It is the most anticipated weekend in thoroughbred racing - I WOULD put it ahead of the Breeders' Cup because of the uniqueness of the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.  And after the pandemic postponed last year's traditional first weekend in May to the first weekend in September AND both days were run without fans in the stands, it was really REALLY highly anticipated to have the big weekend back where it belonged on the calendar and with fans - albeit a limited number - back on track.  I handicapped the Friday Oaks card and played just Churchill Downs, then I handicapped the Saturday card, but added in a small set of picks from both Belmont and Gulfstream.  Here's how the weekend unfolded......

Friday April 30: Oaks Day
Racing kicked off in Louisville with a 10:30 am first post.  The opener was an entry level allowance and I didn't like anyone enough to wager on them.  The two horses I mentioned in my analysis were in the mix but didn't factor in the finish.  The second was a Maiden Special going a one-turn mile and it was for three-and-up.  Seaside Retreat looked best to me and she rallied from the back while five wide, but was only second best to a 30/1 upset winner.  However, prior to the racing beginning Xpressbet had offered a "Money Back" program on ALL Churchill races for the weekend.  If you bet to win, up to $10 and your horse ran second or third, you got your money back.  And so I "cashed" out for the same $5 I'd invested!  WHOOO HOOO - what a way to "win without winning!"  The third was a 6 1/2 furlong spring for three-year-olds under non-winners of one conditions.  Australasia was listed at 4/1 in the program and I was hopeful that handicappers would look at her and think her La-bred efforts didn't measure up to this OPEN allowance level of competition.  But because I play the Fair Grounds and had played Delta Downs Premier Day, I was very familiar with this unbeaten Brad Cox filly.  She had yet to be truly tested, winning all four starts by a combined 25 lengths.  Today she turned back from two races around two turns against stakes fillies.  Jockey Florent Geroux sat chilly on the rail through the far turn and when the rail opened turning for home he accelerated through and opened 

In the fourth, an entry level allowance going two turns on the main track my 5/2 choice was in contention to the turn and came up empty, seventh.  In the fifth we were on the turf and our 5/2 choice was near the back into the turn.  Came rolling from far back but was only a best-of-the-rest 2nd as the winner coasted loose on the lead through a :50 opening half mile.  Now it was time for the graded stakes action.  In the first two I liked the short priced favorite in both and I just had this sense that ONE of them would not fire.  Do I try to guess which one and manage my money accordingly, or do I play them individually .... that was the choice.  The first of the two was on the main track, the Grade 2 Alysheba.  The obvious choice in here was Maxfield who was 4/5 in the program for this mile and a sixteenth test.  This 4yo had lost for the first time last time out in Santa Anita's mile and a quarter Big 'Cap.  The trip and most especially the distance were the culprits in my opinion.  The only concern for me was the "bounce" off the trip, effort and loss.  Otherwise he was 4-for-4 at today's trip, 2-for-2 in Louisville and his last THREE Beyers beat the combined 73 figures earned by the rest of the field.  Did have a bit of a concern that Bob Baffert's once-very-good Roadster could steal it.  Maxfield tracked the field into the far turn while third, moved three wide into the clear.  Easily glided to the front and drew off as much the best.

The Grade 2 Edgewood for 3yo fillies on the turf was next.  I had mixed feelings about 4/5 morning line favorite Aunt Pearl.  On the one hand, she was the unbeaten 2yo champ.  Her maiden debut number would beat 26 of the 27 numbers combined by the rest of the field and her last two figures beat them all.  Add in she is was the LONE speed.  Hard to envision her NOT winning.  But I was reminded of 2018 juvenile filly turf champ Newspaperofrecord who was nearly the same kind of resume and running style and in THIS race she failed to win.  Who knows what the good 2yo will run like at three until they do?  Still she was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and when she coasted through an unopposed opening half mile in :49 and change I "knew" we were home free.  But when asked to sprint to the wire she faded like an old pair of jeans....fifth, wow.  In the Grade 1 La Troienne, next up I narrowed it to Shesadaredevil who upset the Kentucky Oaks field here last fall at 18/1 and Chan Brown's talented Dunbar Road.  I'd had 'Devil in her 3yo debut and the filly she beat had come back to upset the best mare in the country, Monomoy Girl in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom.  Still, I thought Dunbar Road was more talented.  Shesadaredevil went unopposed on the front end and wired the field while Dunbar made a bid and faded to fifth.  Today's NOT going according to plan :)  The Grade 2 Eight Belles was next and after scanning the field I came to these conclusions..... (1) this looked like the most wide open race on the card and (2) the pace looked to be very hot and contested.  Obligatory fit both these conditions and then some.  She was trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and had last been seen running fourth in the two-turn, mile and a sixteenth Gr 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  Mott 21% with turnbacks, and in that FG race she'd had to try to rally into moderate fractions.  Faster pace, good barn numbers on the route to sprint angle.  Also, the fact that she'd posted back-to-back bullet works lit up my eyes, including a recent best of 29 five furlong move in a wicked :59.3.  All this said "PICK ME" for the upset.  Listed at 10/1 in the program I was going to make her a minimum bet but then I thought - all of this adds up to a very real, legitimate upset pick.  Let's double the bet!  As the field approached the far turn she was last, then she moved outside of runners and began to pick off runners one by one but was wide.  The NBC camera angle switched from overhead to side view as they hit the top of the lane and she was six wide near the back while the favorite had spurted clear.  But Obligatory was still gaining.  Keith said, ".....she's going to run well and hit the board, but she's not catching the front runner...." but I wasn't so sure.  Then at the furlong pole her closing stride seemed to shift into overdrive and Keith called out, "OH MY Dude, she's going to win....you've got this" and she blew by to score.  I was up dancing a jig because her post time odds had floated up to 16-1 .... that's right my friends, SIXTEEN TO ONE!   WHOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOO!

The "Day-Maker" / "Upset Special" WINS

The payoff was a whopping $175 and not only would I be a winner for today but I was destined to win for the weekend now.  Bingo - Bango - Bongo Webby!  Next, the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint and this was not only wide open but it was difficult to really find anyone who had an advantage.  I did think that Fiya COULD wire the field.  Right to the front, but was dueling at 3/1 then stopped to finish dead last.  Now it was time for the BIG ONE - the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  I thought there were at least five in here who COULD win, but I was convinced the best horse was Todd Pletcher's million dollar filly, Malathaat.  She'd won two in a row when I first "met" her as she entered the gate in the Grade 2 Demoiselle as the short-priced favorite and probable lone speed.  But she didn't break well and was out sprinted to the first turn.  "OK, going to learn to rate today" I thought on that December afternoon.  But on the far turn she was spinning her wheels and actually lost a spot.  But Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez kept coaxing her and when she got into the clear she accelerated and was up in time in one of the most impressive finishes I'd seen all year.  She didn't come back until the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland in April  Long break, but as I said THAT day, I thought the connections thought they had the Oaks winner and this was just a tune-up for the big dance.  With the short stretch at Keeneland and only going a mile and a sixteenth (the Demoiselle was 9f) it would be a challenge.  And into the lane she was chasing a lone speedster, but she bore down and got up in time.  So today, with the perfect prep, the longer distance, and completely rested and ready to run her top effort I thought she was clearly best.  You just don't know how they will run at the longer trip especially here was my main concern.  Johnny V had her fourth while five-wide into the turn, surged turning for home, collared the leader....stretch duel between her and Chad Brown's unbeaten filly to the final fifty yards when Malathaat edged clear to WIN!

My FOURTH winner on the day, I'm having a good day.  And....Malathaat paid $7 so my triple investment returned over $50!  But wait, we're not done yet!  The finale was a one mile turf event for second level allowance runners.  Irad Ortiz was aboard Mintd who was a Euro import - immediate class edge.  She'd won her North American debut by rallying from the back half of the field, but in her last two had been compromised by a slow pace.  I thought she got the right set-up today.  As the field approached the far turn she was near the back.  Ortiz came off the hedge, but then instead of going to the far outside he split horses through the turn four off the hedge.  Into the lane there wasn't a seam outside or between, but there was an opening to dive down INSIDE back to the hedge.  Clear run from the 16th pole home and she drew off by daylight!  WHOOO HOOO - my fifth win from eleven picks and best of all, Mintd paid $9.00 - AND I'd tripled the investment so I cashed out for nearly $70!  WHAT a day.

Saturday May 1:  Kentucky Derby Day
Normally, on Kentucky Derby Day Kim and I would go to Gulfstream to watch a race live and have lunch before returning home to watch all the big stakes races on the big screen TV.  Keith was visiting so we decided this would be the plan but tickets to get into Gulfstream were sold out by Wednesday morning.  So instead we went out for lunch at a steak place in Cape Coral.  For the day I'd decided to play not only the Churchill card but also some races from both Belmont and Gulfstream.  When we got back I'd missed the first two bets of the day, but had recorded the NBCSN broadcast.  Ran 8th at 6/1 in the fourth (after passing the first two and having the third race pick scratch).  In the the fifth I ran 2nd at 6/5 but, like Friday's card, any time you finished second or third you were going to be reimbursed up to $10 so for running second I "cashed" for the $10 :)  I missed in Gulfstream's 2nd before it was time for the first of the stakes events.  That would be the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile which featured Got Stormy - who'd been my Best of the Day in February when she won the Grade 3 Honey Fox.  Since then she'd been acquired by MyRacehorse.com and now I was a two-share owner in her!  She was sent off as the 5/2 second choice and was right there into the far turn.  I'd read an alert from my "ownership group" that if the course was soft she would scratch.  And earlier on the NBCSN broadcast they said that there was some "give" to the ground.  When Got Stormy ran evenly home I thought that might have been the case, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione later sent out a video to all of us that "it just wasn't our day" and that the course had been a little soft for her.  Next on my selection sheet was the Grade 3 Westchester from Belmont going a one-turn mile.  This often serves as a prep for the Grade 1 Met Mile.  Last year I'd seen Todd Pletcher's Dr. Post break his maiden at Gulfstream...come right back to win the Unbridled Stakes; and then he was entered in the Grade 1 Belmont.  He was a best-of-the-rest second behind the division leader Tiz The Law that day.  Next he was a sharp second behind next out Kentucky Derby and then Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic.  Finally he ended his 2020 season with a fourth in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy behind Mystic Guide who won the Grade 3 Razorback to kick off HIS 2021 year and then most recently he won the $10 Million Dubai World Cup.  So for me, Dr. Post was the clear horse to beat.  Veteran Mr. Buff looked to be loose on the lead but all his damage had always been in NY-bred races.  Anytime he went to open company he just wasn't the same.  Dr. Post chased him into the stretch then surged by and drew off.  WHOOOO HOOOO, the first win on Derby Day!

The seventh at Churchill Downs was my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff sprinting seven furlongs for older fillies and mares.  I had been a BIG fan of Bob Baffert's ultra talented filly Gamine since she debuted as a prohibitive 1/5 MORNING LINE favorite in her debut.  She had been exceptional in all of her races, with one exception.  Included in her resume was a win in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont where she'd shattered a 75 year track record.  Her lone loss came when trying 9f in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks here at Churchill last fall.  She'd cut back to sprinting and was a handy winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at this same 7f and she'd been a handy winner in her 2021 debut in the Grade 1 Las Flores.  Six of her seven lifetime Beyers beat nearly every lifetime figure earned by the rest of the field and her last two DID beat them all.  Second off the shelf I thought she'd show improvement AND she looked like the lone speed.  Way, WAY too good for these, unless..... what about her lone loss coming over the Louisville oval?  I chalked that up to being the distance.  Right to the front and cruising into the lane, challenged - causing an anxious moment until jockey John Velazquez asked her to run and then she drew clear nearly breaking the track record.  Even more remarkable was after the race when asked about how he felt when the field closed in at the top of the stretch, Baffert said he was still confident but he knew they didn't "have her cranked up all the way!"  That's NOTHING but bad news for filly & mare sprinters this summer!

The BET of the Weekend, Gamine SCORES In The Gr 1 Derby City Distaff

Even though I cashed for $60 on my BIG TIME bet it was all about being right and putting my money where my confidence lie.  Missed twice at Belmont, once at Gulfstream and was a head bob from winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill - but got my money back (Whooo hoooo) for running second!  Missed in the Grade 2 American Turf for 3yo at Churchill when Annex suffered his first loss when an even fifth late.  But I got back to the winner's circle in back-to-back thriller races.  The first came at Gulfstream in a six furlong entry level allowance.  Paco Lopez was on Speargun and that gave him the edge for me over a very close 2nd choice Vinnie Van Go - why?  Because Lopez had been on both and he rode Speargun.  Liked that in his last four dirt tries Speargun had won twice and was a best of the rest second twice.  Claimed away two back he'd posted a new lifetime best last time out.  The two hit the top of the stretch together and they dueled into the final fifty yards before my pick edged clear to give me my third winner of the afternoon.

Less than half an hour later they were lining up for the Grade 1 Churchill Downs, a seven furlong sprint for half a million dollars.  I wrote in my analysis and remarked to Keith prior to the race that this HAD to be the WORST Grade 1 race ever run based on the full field of runners.  None of these guys, all quality horses for sure, but NONE were legitimate Grade 1 types.  The one you COULD make an argument for was Whitmore, the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint champion from last fall.  But ALL of his wins had come at six furlongs and most of them at Oaklawn.  And today he was exiting back-to-back losses at Oaklawn, at his preferred six furlongs.  I thought he'd be close but the distance would get in the end.  I considered passing the race, but decided that Flagstaff was worth a minimum play.  I was hesitant because my top choice had one win, count them ONE in the last thirteen months - oh my.  BUT he was proven at the distance with three wins in five trips.  The gates opened and he sprung to the front.  Four others lined up across the track with him and jockey Luis Saez wisely let them go on with it.  As they came out of the turn he had no choice but to rally some five wide and he seemed to strike the front for a sixteenth of a mile.  They hit the furlong pole and SEVEN of them were across the track!  WHAT A RACE!  Whitmore was charging on the outside and with less than a 16th to go we'd lost the lead as the champ put his head in front.  I focused on him since we'd "lost" and there were still three of them separated by a nose at best.  Then as they hit the wire a fourth head burst through inside of Whitmore and Keith said, "HE WON!"  And I said, "Who did?" And he said "THE 4!"  WHAT?????  Yes, led, took back, five wide rally to the front, gave way and RE-rallied between horses....my top choice, Flagstaff had won!  And paid a very generous $11.80 allowing me to cash for nearly $30!

WOW!  Now THAT was a great race my friends, but little did I realize that it would NOT be the most exciting race of the day!  After missing at Gulfstream it was time for the Grade 1 Turf Classic going nine furlongs on the inner grass course for older.  Ever since Todd Pletcher's  Colonel Liam had won the Tropical Park Derby in December at Gulfstream his path had mirrored the one taken by Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar.....won the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf, then the Gr 2 Muniz at the Fair Grounds and now here.  I thought he was the best turf horse in the country.  Sat comfortably third under Irad Ortiz into the stretch, eased out to engage the leader and at the furlong pole took command by daylight.  But at the sixteenth pole Chad Brown's Domestic Spending was absolutely flying between horses.....oh this is going to be close....and they hit the wire together - PHOTO FINISH.  Several minutes and slow-motion replays went by and to me it was all about where was the official wire.  There was a small cut in the hedges for the finish line mirror/line and at the front edge of the bushes, we won.....at the far edge, some six inches or so farther down, it looked like we were a loser.  In between, too hard to separate.  Then came the announcement.......

WOW That was C-L-O-S-E!

I'll gladly take the "win" and cash for nearly $30 on my "prime time" play instead of tossing the losing ticket, but the dead heat cost me $20 in profit.  My youngest son Brad had said Friday night he wanted to play along today so I had bet all the stakes races for him in the same amounts as my bets.  He texted how exciting and close that was, but better to win something than lose outright.  So right my son!  Less than ten minutes later Todd Pletcher's Con Lima, a 3yo stakes winning filly this winter, went into the gate at Gulfstream as the favorite in the Honey Ryder, the featured event in So Fla.  Pressed the pace to the top of the stretch under Paco then took off as much the best.

Finally it was time for the Derby.  I really liked Essential Quality, the unbeaten two-year-old champion and thought he'd run big today.  But as I told everyone who asked who I liked, I thought that it was a very good group of three-year-olds and there were many who I thought COULD win.  I did not like the winner of the Santa Anita Derby or the Bluegrass and both were  a"toss" for me.  Several friends had not only asked who I liked but who I thought was a good longshot.  I named, publicly online that my "longshot play" was Bill Mott's Mandaloun who had won the Grade 2 Risen Star and then ran very dully in the Grade 2 La Derby, but had been working sensationally here under the Twin Spires.  In the final minutes leading up to the Derby my oldest, Jeff called to discuss his bets and the field and we both agreed that even though Medina Spirits had lost the Santa Anita Derby - as my top pick - how could you let a Bob Baffert 3yo -  he's won the Kentucky Derby SIX times - with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez - go off at a 12/1 price?  I told Jeff that a week or so ago I had read a So Cal handicapper predicted he would wire the field.  It was a great race and Essential Quality had a wide trip from post 15, was coming late but no better than fourth.  Mandaloun was a just-miss 2nd and at least two of my pals made big money by betting him across the board.  The winner - you guessed it, Medina Spirits, wow.  Right after the race Jeff texted me.  For his birthday, last weekend, Kim had suggested we give him a $100 bet for the Derby.  As they loaded into the gate after we talked he used that money to bet $25 across the board on Medina Spirts!  Cashed for nearly $600 to save his day!  You're welcome my son!  Closed out a fabulous weekend of racing......the oldest son broke even (later moved into the black on Sunday), the youngest son scored a profit and enjoyed a rare day of horse racing for him, and I had an excellent two days at Churchill Downs and over all!  Scroll down to see the highlights and some great photos of the MANY fans (over 50,000  on Derby Day) who were back at the races at Churchill Downs over the weekend!

Thanks to Xpressbet for padding my ROI by refunding any selection that ran 2nd or 3rd at Churchill Downs!

Kentucky Derby Weekend Highlights

Kentucky Oaks Images

Kentucky Derby Day Images