May 14 - 15
It was a "good" weekend overall as I hit for better than 30% of my selections, but much like Derby weekend, the "Ladies' Day" on Friday was much better than the Saturday results. The extended weekend started on Wednesday when Kim and I drove to Cape Coral. Thursday night was Jeff's high school football inter-squad game and we were going. We drove separately so Kim could continue on up to Englewood to visit her family while I returned home for the racing. Got to eat at our most favorite spot in Cape Coral, Ford's Garage on Wednesday. Then on Thursday right as the players were about to finish warming up the lightning warning sounded so the players and all fans had to go inside for 30 min. After about 25 minutes it sounded again, then it POURED down rain. Game called, sigh. Went out to eat with the coaches and that was a great time. Friday morning we left for our separate destinations and I was home by 10 am for an 11:30 am post time.
Black Eyed Susan Day
The opener was a nine furlong turf event for a $12.5K tag and I didn't have much confidence in anyone so I passed.....won by a 7/1 deep closer I would not have considered, wise decision. The second was a two-turn allowance and I had a play who went off as the second choice at 2/1 but was never a threat, finishing a well beaten sixth. Third was a maiden event that I couldn't even find anyone to write about; how the winner was sent off at only 3/1 is beyond me. As I wrote in my analysis of the fourth, I'm a big believer in the human element while acknowledging that the horse runs the race. So for me, while Prodigious Bay looked like a solid win bet, I was unwilling to go in for more than the minimum as the barn held a woeful 0-for-15 mark with runners making their second start off a layoff like he was. Sent off as the 8/5 favorite, jockey Joel Rosario sent him right to the field and was never threatened. Had my first winner of the weekend.
The fifth was a turf sprint under allowance conditions. The ONLY thing that prevented Beantown Baby from being a "big bet" was that all his wins had come for a tag. BUT, since moving to the grass every one of his five starts had earned numbers that would win today. Three wins for a tag when CLEARLY the class of the field, and two allowance tries where he was a best-of-the-rest second in both. Tracked the pace in third, swept to the front and opened up, then was ridden out to a comfortable win with my triple investment on boar - WHOOO HOOO.
The sixth looked like a good betting race, and while I recognized that the DRF morning line is far from accurate, I still thought I'd get a "fair" price on Wonderwherecraigis. The colt debuted with a win at Laurel, then came back off a short break to win in allowance company. Shipped to Belmont and just missed in a listed event before concluding his sophomore season with a solid fourth in the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga. So the issue was the layoff. The top three from that graded event ALL came back to win and 'Craig had fired off the bench both times, so I thought he was the one to beat. Doubled the bet. He went right to the front, pressured into the far turn, then opened up willingly and once he hit the stretch he accelerated in a very impressive performance that probably sends him to stakes company next time out.
Was just delighted that he paid a very generous $7.20 allowing me to cash for nearly $40, and suddenly I'm three for four and having a wonderful day! The seventh was an allowance event on the turf, and again I couldn't find anyone to even comment on. As I did write, you COULD make a case for several, but all the better numbers were earned on the dirt. Just watched as the winner held on in a three-way photo at 13/1....with the runner-up at 5/2 and the show at 14/1. Many years ago as part of my "undergraduate studies" I read in a handicapping book that sometimes, "the best bet is a NO BET when you recognize that what YOU KNOW is that you DON'T KNOW" - good advice that has served me well on many occasions, like this one :) The eighth was the first of the stakes events and it was the Grade 3 Allaire DuPont Distaff going nine furlongs. In my analysis here I commented that the pick here was more about the PROMISE on Spice Is Nice than on what she'd accomplished to date. Her debut as a 3yo at Gulfstream was ultra-impressive. So much so that trainer Todd Pletcher sent her to the Grade 2 Davona Dale in her second start, first time winners. I thought she could have won, but she was defeated by a more experienced, multiple stakes winner. Note she was the favorite that day. So when she came back in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. Disappointed again. Came back off the bench to win a Belmont allowance, then tried the Grade 1 Alabama where she was defeated by multiple stakes winner Swiss Skydiver - who subsequently beat the boys in the Gr 1 Preakness last October. She returned off the shelf to win at Keeneland despite the short stretch of that 8 1/2 furlong event, and I thought she was ready for a breakout performance. The one to beat, and the post time favorite was Bill Mott's Horologist who was 2-for-3 at the distance. And, since moving into Mott's care she won three times and lost twice, but those were in the Grade 1 La Troienne and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, both times to champion Monomoy Girl. Spice Is Nice pressed the leader to the turn, edged to the front and drove home to win by daylight. Horologist was the favorite and was an even fourth. The generous $6.60 payoff allowed me to cash AGAIN - this time for over $30. I'm having a VERY good day!
The four race win streak came to an end when Catch A Bid was off slowly and rallied belatedly for fifth in the The Very One Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. The tenth was the Grade 3 Miss Preakness for three-year-old fillies, sprinting six furlongs. And the concern for me here was that, as is the case at all the Stronach tracks (and most major venues), in stakes company the anti-bleeding medication Lasix is prohibited now. So which of these fillies would run their race without being treated. Although it was a question for all of them, including my top choice, at least Red Ghost had won at first asking at Saratoga - both big plus marks - without the medication. Toss the next when trying longer, on the turf, against winners, and over the undulating Kentucky Downs course. Last out she scored again, but WITH Lasix and in a non-winners of two lifetime allowance. She'd wired the field in her debut but came from off it last out. I thought she was a legitimate contender here. Went right to the front, but turning for home she lost the lead as not one but two passed her and with a sixteenth to go she was about half a length behind. But then jockey John Velazquez continued to urge her and she found another gear.....surging....PHOTO FINISH........
OH MY that was desperately close - even with the slow-mo replays I wasn't sure until the numbers went up. Her $6.20 payoff led to another $15 and change into the bankroll on my FIFTH win of the afternoon. Closed out the day with a fifth at 8/5 in the Hilltop Stakes where Javier Castellano gave the favorite one of his now-patented terrible rides, just awful; couldn't run down the front runner with favored Fearless in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special; and finally, Beautiful Gift showed little in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan when 6th at 2/1. But those defeats did not dim the brightness of a 5-for-10 day and a clear profit. Whoooo hoooo.
Preakness Saturday
I decided, like Derby Day two weeks ago to play two other tracks to make it a full day. And I did try to actually go to Gulfstream. I had looked at tickets on Wednesday and they were only $10 to sit in the grandstand, but you had to buy a minimum of two. Wasn't sold that I was going and there were several spots open. So Friday evening I decided since Kim wasn't home it was worth the money for TWO tickets to go out for a while. Got online and all that were left were the tables on the apron....at $15 per seat. OK, went to get them and for these tables the minimum purchase was four. $60 to go out, on my own, for a couple hours? I don't think so. Instead I booked myself a seat in the Clubhouse at the Sunrise Simulcast Center :) One of the "best" bets of the day was in the Pimlico opener, the Sir Barton Stakes for 3yo colts. Bob Baffert sent out Hozier who had run 2nd in the Grade 2 Rebel behind then 3yo star Concert Tour. But he'd failed to fire in the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby. All the hosts on the TVG broadcast liked the lone speed horse, but to me, class outweighs cheap speed. Jockey Joel Rosario sharply put Hozier into a pressing spot and approaching the turn moved through on the rail to take command. THAT is why you go with the best horse and the best jockey, I thought. But the other runner would not give in and got his nose down first to outfinish the 3/5 favorite. WOW. Missed again in the Grade 3 Chick Lang, Race 3 on the card when Steve Asmussen's "other" colt out sprinted the even money favorite, and my choice, Jaxon Traveler. Back to back second place finishes. In the fifth it was an entry level sprint for 3 and up. Wesley Ward's Fire Sword was 8/1 in the DRF line, which was bound to be "off," but I liked how he'd beaten Keeneland maidens and then rich optional claimers at Aqueduct. Tossed the bad effort on the Turfway synthetic, and with John Velazquez I thought he was worth the wager. Took control early and was gone.
Went off at a more than "fair" price, and paid $9.20 enabling me to collect almost $25 on a minimum play. And just like that I'm almost back to even on the day. About fifteen minutes later a non-winners of two lifetime turf event at Gulfstream saw Paco Lopez take command immediately with the 8/5 favorite and never look back as Templet wired the field.
Then I hit the first "skid" of the day as I lost two at Pimlico, one at Gulfstream and three at Churchill.....the one most noteworthy loss was a race I "SHOULD" have had. In Gulfstream's Roar Stakes, three year-olds were racing without Lasix and it was a big question mark. Three of the six were Saffie Joseph runners and one of them had run and run well without the "juice." But I went with the favorite who was no better than third at 2/5 while the horse I'd singled out as a "price play" for having proven to have run well under these "medical conditions" scored at 7/1. Man, missed that one and should have had it. I made what turned out to be a "wise decision" in the sixth at Pimlico, the James Murphy Stakes for 3yo on the turf. Originally my BEST of the Day was Outadore in this race. But on Friday I read that the trainer had not even shipped him to Pimlico. Oh. Play with the second choice or no? Re-read my analysis before posting my picks and while T D Dance looked like a winner, that he had Javier Castellano was a real concern. Especially after the ride he gave me yesterday. But I decided to go in on it. He was taking all the money so I upped the bet to a triple investment. Sat a great trip saving ground through the turn and then there was wide-open green grass to swing into the clear.....but oh, no, NOT Castellano. He elected to try and split horses, but there wasn't a seam. He veered out a path but now the outside was shut off, back inside, but the rail was closed. Briefly steadied and I'm thinking instantaneously, "YOU'VE GOT to be kidding me," but then the field opened like the Red Sea, fortunately for the Hall of Fame now questionable rider and his mount burst through to run away through the final 16th of a mile. Whew. Anxious moments, but I'll take the nearly $30 I collected.
Another skid followed with two at Pimlico, two at Churchill and one at Gulfstream. Sigh.....The eleventh at Pimlico was the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint which looked pretty wide open to me. My preference went to Special Reserve who had won back-to-back sprint events going today's six furlongs, then last time out was entered in the Grade 3 Commonwealth. He set the pace that day and finished second. But two very important notes about that race.....first, it was at seven furlongs and second, the winner Flagstaff exited that race to come back and win the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard (as my top choice thank you very much!). Cutting back and the KEY race angle was good enough for a wager. Pressed the favorite into the turn, took over and then took off as clearly the best of this field. And best of all....paid a handsome $9.80, so I cashed for almost $25. The second "should have" decision of the day as it would have been nice to have doubled the bet on this price play.
Missed three more before the featured Grade 3 Louisville, my "best" of the day. This gets the notation even though it wasn't a "prime time" play because.....early this morning my youngest son Brad texted and wanted to play today. He wanted to send me $100 and I only had $85 in bets on the Pimlico stakes. He asked if I had any other horses I liked NOT in stakes and I answered that if he wanted to round out the money, I'd say take my top choice at Churchill Downs, and so he did. Arklow was clearly the best horse in here. Of the combined two-hundred-and-fifty-two races run by his competitors today, NONE of them had run as fast as he had IN HIS LAST THREE - uh oh. The "issue" was two-fold. First, he was coming off the layoff and second, obviously he had bigger targets down the road. And thus, he was not a "prime time" play. The mile and a half journey saw him take a spot near the back through the stretch for the first time, then through the turn and on the backstretch. But about midway down the backside under the Twin Spires he began picking off horses, and picking them off quickly. By the time they'd entered the turn he had gone from tenth to fourth. Five wide into the lane he was now on even terms with the leaders as jockey Florent Geroux asked him for his best. He sprinted for home holding the rest of the field safe. Despite the OBVIOUS class advantage he still went off at 6/5 so Brad and I cashed out for nearly $35.
Missed on the Powder Break at Gulfstream before it was time for the Preakness. As I told several people and wrote in my analysis....first, the field was a "stakes field," but far from a Grade 1 caliber of runners. Second, you had to start with how you felt about the Derby winner and the "other" Baffert runner Concert Tour. I didn't like either. So, I felt it was a pretty wide-open race. I went with Steve Asmussen's Midnight Bourbon who until approaching post time was the betting favorite. He left the gate at 3/1 and had the Derby winner in his sights turning for home. Asked for run he took command with a furlong to go and I thought I had the winner. But then out of the blue....... several people who follow my picks, especially on the big days want to know if I have a longshot. So in my analysis I make it a practice to include them. For the Derby I had tabbed Mandaloun as such and he'd run second at a big 26/1 keying a nice payout for several of my "fans" who bet across the board. With just ten minutes to post time hottie Oasis MILF Mindy's husband Nathan - a big horse racing fan and now Facebook pal, messaged me to ask first who I liked in the Preakness, and then followed that up by saying, "you know I like longshots, do you have one here" and I told him who. So, you can guess what happened. With a furlong to go and I'm sailing for home with the winner of the Preakness when out of the blue comes Rombauer at 11/1 who roared by to win going away. WOW. Two Triple Crown races in a row and I'd NAMED the longshot play. Lots of what if I'd done....thoughts ran through my mind as he cruised by the finish line by daylight. So for the day I had caahed on five winners, including two stakes on the Pimlico card and the "best of the day," and had enjoyed the day's worth of racing action. But I missed out on having a day nearly as good on Saturday as I'd had on Friday. Fortunately, Xpressbet was running the same promotion for the Preakness weekend that they'd run for the Derby weekend - any WIN bet on the Pimlico card, ALL races Friday and Saturday, up to $10, you get your money back if your selection runs second or third. And for me I'd had that happen once on Friday and three times on Saturday so I collected a refund of $40 to boost my ROI for the weekend.
Preakness Weekend Highlights
Some fashion shots and social media hits......
No comments:
Post a Comment