It is the most anticipated weekend in thoroughbred racing - I WOULD put it ahead of the Breeders' Cup because of the uniqueness of the Kentucky Oaks and Derby. And after the pandemic postponed last year's traditional first weekend in May to the first weekend in September AND both days were run without fans in the stands, it was really REALLY highly anticipated to have the big weekend back where it belonged on the calendar and with fans - albeit a limited number - back on track. I handicapped the Friday Oaks card and played just Churchill Downs, then I handicapped the Saturday card, but added in a small set of picks from both Belmont and Gulfstream. Here's how the weekend unfolded......
Friday April 30: Oaks Day
Racing kicked off in Louisville with a 10:30 am first post. The opener was an entry level allowance and I didn't like anyone enough to wager on them. The two horses I mentioned in my analysis were in the mix but didn't factor in the finish. The second was a Maiden Special going a one-turn mile and it was for three-and-up. Seaside Retreat looked best to me and she rallied from the back while five wide, but was only second best to a 30/1 upset winner. However, prior to the racing beginning Xpressbet had offered a "Money Back" program on ALL Churchill races for the weekend. If you bet to win, up to $10 and your horse ran second or third, you got your money back. And so I "cashed" out for the same $5 I'd invested! WHOOO HOOO - what a way to "win without winning!" The third was a 6 1/2 furlong spring for three-year-olds under non-winners of one conditions. Australasia was listed at 4/1 in the program and I was hopeful that handicappers would look at her and think her La-bred efforts didn't measure up to this OPEN allowance level of competition. But because I play the Fair Grounds and had played Delta Downs Premier Day, I was very familiar with this unbeaten Brad Cox filly. She had yet to be truly tested, winning all four starts by a combined 25 lengths. Today she turned back from two races around two turns against stakes fillies. Jockey Florent Geroux sat chilly on the rail through the far turn and when the rail opened turning for home he accelerated through and opened
In the fourth, an entry level allowance going two turns on the main track my 5/2 choice was in contention to the turn and came up empty, seventh. In the fifth we were on the turf and our 5/2 choice was near the back into the turn. Came rolling from far back but was only a best-of-the-rest 2nd as the winner coasted loose on the lead through a :50 opening half mile. Now it was time for the graded stakes action. In the first two I liked the short priced favorite in both and I just had this sense that ONE of them would not fire. Do I try to guess which one and manage my money accordingly, or do I play them individually .... that was the choice. The first of the two was on the main track, the Grade 2 Alysheba. The obvious choice in here was Maxfield who was 4/5 in the program for this mile and a sixteenth test. This 4yo had lost for the first time last time out in Santa Anita's mile and a quarter Big 'Cap. The trip and most especially the distance were the culprits in my opinion. The only concern for me was the "bounce" off the trip, effort and loss. Otherwise he was 4-for-4 at today's trip, 2-for-2 in Louisville and his last THREE Beyers beat the combined 73 figures earned by the rest of the field. Did have a bit of a concern that Bob Baffert's once-very-good Roadster could steal it. Maxfield tracked the field into the far turn while third, moved three wide into the clear. Easily glided to the front and drew off as much the best.
The Grade 2 Edgewood for 3yo fillies on the turf was next. I had mixed feelings about 4/5 morning line favorite Aunt Pearl. On the one hand, she was the unbeaten 2yo champ. Her maiden debut number would beat 26 of the 27 numbers combined by the rest of the field and her last two figures beat them all. Add in she is was the LONE speed. Hard to envision her NOT winning. But I was reminded of 2018 juvenile filly turf champ Newspaperofrecord who was nearly the same kind of resume and running style and in THIS race she failed to win. Who knows what the good 2yo will run like at three until they do? Still she was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and when she coasted through an unopposed opening half mile in :49 and change I "knew" we were home free. But when asked to sprint to the wire she faded like an old pair of jeans....fifth, wow. In the Grade 1 La Troienne, next up I narrowed it to Shesadaredevil who upset the Kentucky Oaks field here last fall at 18/1 and Chan Brown's talented Dunbar Road. I'd had 'Devil in her 3yo debut and the filly she beat had come back to upset the best mare in the country, Monomoy Girl in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. Still, I thought Dunbar Road was more talented. Shesadaredevil went unopposed on the front end and wired the field while Dunbar made a bid and faded to fifth. Today's NOT going according to plan :) The Grade 2 Eight Belles was next and after scanning the field I came to these conclusions..... (1) this looked like the most wide open race on the card and (2) the pace looked to be very hot and contested. Obligatory fit both these conditions and then some. She was trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and had last been seen running fourth in the two-turn, mile and a sixteenth Gr 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Mott 21% with turnbacks, and in that FG race she'd had to try to rally into moderate fractions. Faster pace, good barn numbers on the route to sprint angle. Also, the fact that she'd posted back-to-back bullet works lit up my eyes, including a recent best of 29 five furlong move in a wicked :59.3. All this said "PICK ME" for the upset. Listed at 10/1 in the program I was going to make her a minimum bet but then I thought - all of this adds up to a very real, legitimate upset pick. Let's double the bet! As the field approached the far turn she was last, then she moved outside of runners and began to pick off runners one by one but was wide. The NBC camera angle switched from overhead to side view as they hit the top of the lane and she was six wide near the back while the favorite had spurted clear. But Obligatory was still gaining. Keith said, ".....she's going to run well and hit the board, but she's not catching the front runner...." but I wasn't so sure. Then at the furlong pole her closing stride seemed to shift into overdrive and Keith called out, "OH MY Dude, she's going to win....you've got this" and she blew by to score. I was up dancing a jig because her post time odds had floated up to 16-1 .... that's right my friends, SIXTEEN TO ONE! WHOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOO!
The payoff was a whopping $175 and not only would I be a winner for today but I was destined to win for the weekend now. Bingo - Bango - Bongo Webby! Next, the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint and this was not only wide open but it was difficult to really find anyone who had an advantage. I did think that Fiya COULD wire the field. Right to the front, but was dueling at 3/1 then stopped to finish dead last. Now it was time for the BIG ONE - the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. I thought there were at least five in here who COULD win, but I was convinced the best horse was Todd Pletcher's million dollar filly, Malathaat. She'd won two in a row when I first "met" her as she entered the gate in the Grade 2 Demoiselle as the short-priced favorite and probable lone speed. But she didn't break well and was out sprinted to the first turn. "OK, going to learn to rate today" I thought on that December afternoon. But on the far turn she was spinning her wheels and actually lost a spot. But Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez kept coaxing her and when she got into the clear she accelerated and was up in time in one of the most impressive finishes I'd seen all year. She didn't come back until the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland in April Long break, but as I said THAT day, I thought the connections thought they had the Oaks winner and this was just a tune-up for the big dance. With the short stretch at Keeneland and only going a mile and a sixteenth (the Demoiselle was 9f) it would be a challenge. And into the lane she was chasing a lone speedster, but she bore down and got up in time. So today, with the perfect prep, the longer distance, and completely rested and ready to run her top effort I thought she was clearly best. You just don't know how they will run at the longer trip especially here was my main concern. Johnny V had her fourth while five-wide into the turn, surged turning for home, collared the leader....stretch duel between her and Chad Brown's unbeaten filly to the final fifty yards when Malathaat edged clear to WIN!
My FOURTH winner on the day, I'm having a good day. And....Malathaat paid $7 so my triple investment returned over $50! But wait, we're not done yet! The finale was a one mile turf event for second level allowance runners. Irad Ortiz was aboard Mintd who was a Euro import - immediate class edge. She'd won her North American debut by rallying from the back half of the field, but in her last two had been compromised by a slow pace. I thought she got the right set-up today. As the field approached the far turn she was near the back. Ortiz came off the hedge, but then instead of going to the far outside he split horses through the turn four off the hedge. Into the lane there wasn't a seam outside or between, but there was an opening to dive down INSIDE back to the hedge. Clear run from the 16th pole home and she drew off by daylight! WHOOO HOOO - my fifth win from eleven picks and best of all, Mintd paid $9.00 - AND I'd tripled the investment so I cashed out for nearly $70! WHAT a day.
Saturday May 1: Kentucky Derby Day
Normally, on Kentucky Derby Day Kim and I would go to Gulfstream to watch a race live and have lunch before returning home to watch all the big stakes races on the big screen TV. Keith was visiting so we decided this would be the plan but tickets to get into Gulfstream were sold out by Wednesday morning. So instead we went out for lunch at a steak place in Cape Coral. For the day I'd decided to play not only the Churchill card but also some races from both Belmont and Gulfstream. When we got back I'd missed the first two bets of the day, but had recorded the NBCSN broadcast. Ran 8th at 6/1 in the fourth (after passing the first two and having the third race pick scratch). In the the fifth I ran 2nd at 6/5 but, like Friday's card, any time you finished second or third you were going to be reimbursed up to $10 so for running second I "cashed" for the $10 :) I missed in Gulfstream's 2nd before it was time for the first of the stakes events. That would be the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile which featured Got Stormy - who'd been my Best of the Day in February when she won the Grade 3 Honey Fox. Since then she'd been acquired by MyRacehorse.com and now I was a two-share owner in her! She was sent off as the 5/2 second choice and was right there into the far turn. I'd read an alert from my "ownership group" that if the course was soft she would scratch. And earlier on the NBCSN broadcast they said that there was some "give" to the ground. When Got Stormy ran evenly home I thought that might have been the case, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione later sent out a video to all of us that "it just wasn't our day" and that the course had been a little soft for her. Next on my selection sheet was the Grade 3 Westchester from Belmont going a one-turn mile. This often serves as a prep for the Grade 1 Met Mile. Last year I'd seen Todd Pletcher's Dr. Post break his maiden at Gulfstream...come right back to win the Unbridled Stakes; and then he was entered in the Grade 1 Belmont. He was a best-of-the-rest second behind the division leader Tiz The Law that day. Next he was a sharp second behind next out Kentucky Derby and then Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic. Finally he ended his 2020 season with a fourth in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy behind Mystic Guide who won the Grade 3 Razorback to kick off HIS 2021 year and then most recently he won the $10 Million Dubai World Cup. So for me, Dr. Post was the clear horse to beat. Veteran Mr. Buff looked to be loose on the lead but all his damage had always been in NY-bred races. Anytime he went to open company he just wasn't the same. Dr. Post chased him into the stretch then surged by and drew off. WHOOOO HOOOO, the first win on Derby Day!
The seventh at Churchill Downs was my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff sprinting seven furlongs for older fillies and mares. I had been a BIG fan of Bob Baffert's ultra talented filly Gamine since she debuted as a prohibitive 1/5 MORNING LINE favorite in her debut. She had been exceptional in all of her races, with one exception. Included in her resume was a win in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont where she'd shattered a 75 year track record. Her lone loss came when trying 9f in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks here at Churchill last fall. She'd cut back to sprinting and was a handy winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at this same 7f and she'd been a handy winner in her 2021 debut in the Grade 1 Las Flores. Six of her seven lifetime Beyers beat nearly every lifetime figure earned by the rest of the field and her last two DID beat them all. Second off the shelf I thought she'd show improvement AND she looked like the lone speed. Way, WAY too good for these, unless..... what about her lone loss coming over the Louisville oval? I chalked that up to being the distance. Right to the front and cruising into the lane, challenged - causing an anxious moment until jockey John Velazquez asked her to run and then she drew clear nearly breaking the track record. Even more remarkable was after the race when asked about how he felt when the field closed in at the top of the stretch, Baffert said he was still confident but he knew they didn't "have her cranked up all the way!" That's NOTHING but bad news for filly & mare sprinters this summer!
Even though I cashed for $60 on my BIG TIME bet it was all about being right and putting my money where my confidence lie. Missed twice at Belmont, once at Gulfstream and was a head bob from winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill - but got my money back (Whooo hoooo) for running second! Missed in the Grade 2 American Turf for 3yo at Churchill when Annex suffered his first loss when an even fifth late. But I got back to the winner's circle in back-to-back thriller races. The first came at Gulfstream in a six furlong entry level allowance. Paco Lopez was on Speargun and that gave him the edge for me over a very close 2nd choice Vinnie Van Go - why? Because Lopez had been on both and he rode Speargun. Liked that in his last four dirt tries Speargun had won twice and was a best of the rest second twice. Claimed away two back he'd posted a new lifetime best last time out. The two hit the top of the stretch together and they dueled into the final fifty yards before my pick edged clear to give me my third winner of the afternoon.
WOW! Now THAT was a great race my friends, but little did I realize that it would NOT be the most exciting race of the day! After missing at Gulfstream it was time for the Grade 1 Turf Classic going nine furlongs on the inner grass course for older. Ever since Todd Pletcher's Colonel Liam had won the Tropical Park Derby in December at Gulfstream his path had mirrored the one taken by Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar.....won the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf, then the Gr 2 Muniz at the Fair Grounds and now here. I thought he was the best turf horse in the country. Sat comfortably third under Irad Ortiz into the stretch, eased out to engage the leader and at the furlong pole took command by daylight. But at the sixteenth pole Chad Brown's Domestic Spending was absolutely flying between horses.....oh this is going to be close....and they hit the wire together - PHOTO FINISH. Several minutes and slow-motion replays went by and to me it was all about where was the official wire. There was a small cut in the hedges for the finish line mirror/line and at the front edge of the bushes, we won.....at the far edge, some six inches or so farther down, it looked like we were a loser. In between, too hard to separate. Then came the announcement.......
I'll gladly take the "win" and cash for nearly $30 on my "prime time" play instead of tossing the losing ticket, but the dead heat cost me $20 in profit. My youngest son Brad had said Friday night he wanted to play along today so I had bet all the stakes races for him in the same amounts as my bets. He texted how exciting and close that was, but better to win something than lose outright. So right my son! Less than ten minutes later Todd Pletcher's Con Lima, a 3yo stakes winning filly this winter, went into the gate at Gulfstream as the favorite in the Honey Ryder, the featured event in So Fla. Pressed the pace to the top of the stretch under Paco then took off as much the best.
Finally it was time for the Derby. I really liked Essential Quality, the unbeaten two-year-old champion and thought he'd run big today. But as I told everyone who asked who I liked, I thought that it was a very good group of three-year-olds and there were many who I thought COULD win. I did not like the winner of the Santa Anita Derby or the Bluegrass and both were a"toss" for me. Several friends had not only asked who I liked but who I thought was a good longshot. I named, publicly online that my "longshot play" was Bill Mott's Mandaloun who had won the Grade 2 Risen Star and then ran very dully in the Grade 2 La Derby, but had been working sensationally here under the Twin Spires. In the final minutes leading up to the Derby my oldest, Jeff called to discuss his bets and the field and we both agreed that even though Medina Spirits had lost the Santa Anita Derby - as my top pick - how could you let a Bob Baffert 3yo - he's won the Kentucky Derby SIX times - with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez - go off at a 12/1 price? I told Jeff that a week or so ago I had read a So Cal handicapper predicted he would wire the field. It was a great race and Essential Quality had a wide trip from post 15, was coming late but no better than fourth. Mandaloun was a just-miss 2nd and at least two of my pals made big money by betting him across the board. The winner - you guessed it, Medina Spirits, wow. Right after the race Jeff texted me. For his birthday, last weekend, Kim had suggested we give him a $100 bet for the Derby. As they loaded into the gate after we talked he used that money to bet $25 across the board on Medina Spirts! Cashed for nearly $600 to save his day! You're welcome my son! Closed out a fabulous weekend of racing......the oldest son broke even (later moved into the black on Sunday), the youngest son scored a profit and enjoyed a rare day of horse racing for him, and I had an excellent two days at Churchill Downs and over all! Scroll down to see the highlights and some great photos of the MANY fans (over 50,000 on Derby Day) who were back at the races at Churchill Downs over the weekend!
Kentucky Derby Weekend Highlights
Kentucky Oaks Images
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