The "Off Week"
After the great extended racing weekend adventure last weekend in Louisville you could excuse me for thinking maybe I'd take the weekend off from racing. And you'd be even more certain that would be a distinct possibility when noting that all the "big horses" were off this weekend and that there were not any "big races" on the national calendar. But, if you know me you wouldn't be surprised that I decided to play anyway. And one of the reasons for doing so, which I honestly did think to myself, is that I often say or write that it doesn't have to be a Grade 1 $1 Million Breeders' Cup Championship race to get a good bet or have an exciting race. This week proved that axiom once again. I was supposed to fly home on Tuesday evening but my flight was so delayed that I would have missed my connection in Orlando so they rebooked me to fly home early Wednesday morning. So I took the opportunity to handicap the "Twilight Thursday" card at Churchill Downs before leaving Ohio. I originally had five selections from the eight race card with the first being in the opener, a two-year-old maiden claiming event. I noted than none of the fillies with experience looked promising so I thought perhaps trainer Brett Calhoun's Why Behave was interesting. I planned to invest if she took money and stay if she was cold on the board. Two other fillies took most of the money but despite that she was still a good 2/1 price by the time they got into the gate. She broke sharply, went right to the front and never looked back! WHOOO HOOO, here we go I thought.
Then I ran a disappointing fourth with the 9/5 favorite - a horse one of the Churchill Analysts used as his key single in multi-race wagers; had a runner scratch and then ran second twice....first as the 6/5 favorite and then as the 2/1 second choice. Both came from too far back over surfaces that have seemed to be playing to speed.
Because Monmouth's Friday card is only six races and doesn't start until 5 pm I decided to take a look at the Woodbine card which had a 4:50 first post. After having won five times there last weekend I had renewed my fondness for the Toronto track. I had a combined eight selections from the two tracks and it was today that proved the "you never know when the next exciting race / great bet is coming" axiom. After running 8th and second with my first two selections it was time for the second at Woodbine, a pretty non-descript non-winners of two lifetime event for a modest $25K price tag. Here's what I had to say in my analysis......
As is almost always the case, I figured most handicappers would see what I saw and that Takota would probably go off at odds of 2/1 or if I was lucky maybe 5/2. The field of ten broke from the gate and Takota was tracking the two front runners on the rail. Despite sitting clearly third the "chicklets" showing the numbers, names and final odds did not show her in the top four, but when they hit the far turn the #2 popped up in the window and the odds were shown at 7/1. That CANNOT be right I thought, and I glanced down at my sheet.....was Takota my bet, was she #2, and was the second race right? ALL yes. The filly waited patiently and when the leaders hit the top of the lane, the outside filly drifted and a seam opened. Takota darted through and quickly took control. Driving to the wire no one made up any ground on here and I had an exciting win!
And because of the double investment I was a clear winner for the two days of racing heading into the weekend. Missed on the next two - both ran third at 5/2 odds before getting my final winner of the evening. Chubilicious was the pick in this AOC for entry level runners with an optional $15,000 tag. The ten-year-old veteran was running for that price tag. A full and overflow field of fourteen were slated to face the starter here so weaving through traffic was NOT something I was looking for. If you had wanted to look elsewhere I would not have blamed you as this veteran had been beaten a combined fifty lengths - that's right, 50 - in his last five. Uh oh. BUT, upon closer examination, when running at any other tracks he was a combined 2-for-19. In the sixteen races run on the Jersey Shore he was 16/9-5-1....obviously qualifying for "Horse for the Course" status. And to confirm that he was coming into this race with a best-of-63 bullet work. Right to the front, under pressure but would not let anyone by to score at 8/5 odds and I'll taken another near $30 thank you very much!
Saturday June 19
Even after I'd handicapped the Thursday and Friday cards I still considered NOT playing today. But when I committed to playing I decided to try and have a full day. Then I noted Santa Anita was running several lower level stakes so I added them to make it a nearly twelve hour event. Once I was done and made up my betting sheet I had several gaps between races with only a couple hours in the noon to 9:30 pm extravaganza being back-to-back-to-back with multiple tracks going off very close to one another. The opener at Monmouth looked like one of "those" races where, while it IS horse racing, it would be pretty hard to believe that anyone but Plato, the prohibitive even money morning line choice, would win. He'd beaten five of the six in here soundly last time and the one new shooter was just plain slower. But instead an 18/1 longshot, who'd lost by nearly 40 lengths to Plato the last time wired the field and he ran second. This can't be good for how the day will go. But I came right back to score in the Churchill Downs opener, an unusual Maiden Special going a mile and three-sixteenths on the main track. The question here was, would Full Charge run back to his last race 83 Beyer or not. If so, he would win decisively, if not he was just another horse. I thought since he had been three clear of the show runner who'd been seven clear of the field that the figure was legitimate. He was fourth and wide early, and then - not good news - the rider went to the whip on the far turn. Maybe, I thought, just maybe he's the kind of horse who needs "encouragement" to know "HEY, time to run pal!" And as surprising as it seemed, that WAS the case. Full Charge found another gear, swooped by and ran away as easily the best. The first winner on the day.
I ran second in back to back races, first at 3/1 over the Monmouth turf then at 2/1 over the Woodbine all-weather main track. The fourth at Monmouth was a Maiden Special for three and up and Newbomb seemed pretty obvious to me. He'd debuted for Todd Pletcher at Saratoga last summer - where only the very highly regarded 2yo runners show up. AND he'd been the favorite. Didn't get it done, but faced a future talented Chad Brown stakes winner that day. Came back as the 4/5 favorite at Belmont and JUST missed. That was it until today....and he went from the Pletcher barn to Monmouth regular Kelly Breen. Seemed to be the speed of the race on paper and that was certainly the case as he burst out of the gate on top, opened up and won for fun in a dazzling score.
Next on the sheet was the fifth at Monmouth, an entry level allowance on the turf. I "knew" that Junkanoo would almost certainly go favored with Paco Lopez riding for Chad Brown. And that he'd faced the likes of graded stakes winners Doswell and Colonel Liam said he had the class. BUT, I also figured he'd come from off the pace and still, you just don't know what the impact on the horses is that the riders on the Jersey Shore do not get to carry whips, or at least use them. Well he WAS the favorite and he was near the back. But then he had traffic, was steadied, AND had to go five wide into the lane. But still, considering all that he was much the best as he scored at 3/5 odds carrying my double investment for my third winner of the day.
Missed on two more before getting what turned out to be my lone winner at Woodbine today. I considered upping the investment from a double to triple on Marten River in a Starter Optional Claiming Turf sprint as he looked like the lone speed and was the Woodbine on-air analyst's BEST of the Day. But I was concerned about him carrying his speed the entire seven furlongs over a course that traditionally is kind to closers. Right to the front, set sizzling fractions while on a daylight lead and never was threatened :)
Missed at Monmouth before winning my second race in Louisville. And again, much like Marten River I considered making Cazadero a "prime time" play, but I just wasn't willing to make him the "BEST" of the Day, or co-best as it turned out. I'd seen the Steve Asumussen colt run in his first two tries as a 2yo and he looked to be something special. I had him both days, and bet him back when he went favored in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in August. But he gave it up that day, then wasn't seen again until this spring in Oaklawn's Gazebo Stakes. Again, disappointed when 4th. BUT I was willing to give him a pass after he immediately fell well off the pace. Ran sharply in the Bachelor Stakes and then just missed in a 3-lifetim spot like this. Those two races earned big Beyers and were "paired" figures so I thought he was sitting on a big effort. I was interested when the on-air analysts for Fox Sports "America's Day At The Races" were divided about supporting the favorite and I had such a strong opinion. Left the gate as a fair 4/5 priced favorite (at least I thought it was fair based on MY interpretation of his chances to win). Pressed the pace to the turn, reached the leader and widened the margin through the final furlong!
In Woodbine's sixth I agreed with several handicappers in picking 15/1 morning line maiden Emmeline. Bet down to 5/1 he made a late run but was just short when second. THAT would have been nice. And then I missed in Santa Anita's opener before scoring back-to-back winners, first at Monmouth and then Churchill Downs. The feature at Monmouth was the Get Serious Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. I remember Get Serious, and he was one quick and serious race horse! The problem in handicapping this race was that the most logical and obvious winner, The Critical Way, was one of a multitude of "I WANT THE LEAD" kind of runners. But drawn in post seven and with top rider Paco Lopez up I thought he'd try to settle just off the pace. He'd never really shown the ability to do that, so it wasn't "good handicapping" strategy to ask a short priced horse to do something he'd never done. But FOR ME, the fact that he was SUCH the best horse in the field trumped all other angles. Sure enough, sat three wide to the opening turn off two longer shots. One dropped out as they hit the turn and then Paco glided the favorite to the front and he put them all away in a comfortable victory. Cashed for another near $20 payoff.
Right back under the Twin Spires where I liked Aasr who was probably going to be the favorite. And as I wrote in my analysis, he was JUST the kind of horse that after he won, you'd say, "I'd never have bet him" EXCEPT today I thought he WAS the bet. It was a non-winners of two lifetime and Aasr had already been out nine times. Oh...ouch. BUT - stay with me here - if you were willing to toss the two back experiment on the turf AND the four back effort over sloppy going in Arkansas, granted two very big IF's, but if you were then he had not one but FIVE very strong numbers that made him a very likely winner. Again, much like the Cazadero race I found the debate among the analysts on TV interesting because they all recognized his potential but none of them picked him. Exactly as I predicted! He was near the back approaching the far turn then began picking off horses as they approach the top of the lane. Five wide into the stretch and blew by late. AND at a generous 2/1 price - I'll take that on a horse that "I'd never bet him," BUT DID!
Then I hit the wall, handicapping wise. From about 4:30, when the Aasr race went official, until they loaded into the gate at about 5:30 for Churchill Downs' featured Roxelana Stakes - over a series of six races I had nothing. 5th, 6th, 7th - twice; then 2nd and third....and three of those were with triple investments that I thought I had a pretty good thing. My comments: "led, faded," "in position, tired," "away slowly, pressed, stopped," "stretch duel, JUST missed," and "rallied without ever being a threat." Sigh....so what was a pretty good day has gone very far south. But, if you play as often as I do you know that maybe not today, maybe not right now, but the wins WILL come. Just keep going with what you believe to be the winning picks. As the horses were walking up to the gate for the featured Roxelana, a six furlong sprint for older runners I said to Kim, "Either I'm going to get rich because everyone else is wrong, or I'm just way off here." The top two betting choices both were legitimate stakes contenders, and like my choice, were graded stakes winners in this listed event. Four Graces looked to be loose on the lead and went off as the slight second choice at 8/5 while the favorite was last out Grade 3 Winning Colors victor Sconsin. That day I'd had Frank's Rockette who is a talented and speedy filly. But Sconsin just blew by her like she was standing still in a very visually impressive win. But, I also thought that had been an awfully good set-up for Sconsin. Second, on Thursday one of my "better" bets had been the runner-up from that Gr 3 event and she had not fired at all. And third, I thought.....I just had the feeling that jockey Tyler Gaffalione on Sconsin would look in the Racing Form and see that Four Graces looked loose on the lead and that he would put his filly closer to the pace than she'd been in the Winning Colors. To ME, her thing was coming from off the pace, so that - plus the negative "KEY" race fact with the runner-up coming back to lose - just solidified my choice in Belle's The One. She sported a 5/2-2-0 record locally and was exiting FIVE straight Grade 1 tries to run in this Gr 3 sprint. Six back she'd run in a Gr 3 and ran away with it. Four back she'd won the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff, HERE. Last time out she'd been in the May 1st Gr 1 Derby City Distaff (the previous was run in the postponed fall version of the Kentucky Derby/Oaks) and she'd been outrun by the exceptionally talented Gamine. Sconsin had been second that day, but again, she'd closed into a wicked pace AND Bell's The One had been away slowly. She was 7/5 in the program and I thought that was a fair price, but as they walked up to the gate she was sitting at 9/2. OH I WAS SALIVATING. Off they went and it couldn't have been more like what I'd foresaw as Four Graces burst to the front and Sconsin pressed her from the outside. Bell's The One was between runners through the opening quarter and closer than I thought she'd be, but jockey Corey Lanerie let her settle off the pace to the turn. He moved her into the clear and mid-turn I knew, I KNEW I was going to win. She blew by everyone one and while Sconsin would not give in, Bell's The One edged clear as easily best. I was delighted! My spirits were tempered when the final odds of 2/1 flashed on the screen, but hey...still, not only right but cashing for over $60!
The race had hardly gone official when they were in the gate at Monmouth for their finale - a one mile and seventy-yards claiming event. There are typically more than one angle that leads you to a horse for the top choice, but here the gaudy number that leaped off the page for Purimeter was that trainer Jose Delgado was winning at a big 33% (from a 66 horse sample) with second-off-the-shelf runners. And jockey Jose Ferrer - who had a career weekend last weekend - was winning at a 40% clip for the barn. The pace was torrid as Purimeter was handled patiently to the turn. Ferrer asked and he took off. As they'd gone into the gate Purimeter was hovering around 5/2 odds. But as he blew by and his number hit the bottom of the screen I jumped out of my chair as said, "I'm about to win $50!" as his odds sat now at 4/1. Sure enough - paid $10.40 and I cashed for OVER $50.
Missed at Woodbine, but in the fifth at Santa Anita Lincoln Hawk looked hopelessly beaten into the turn going a mile on the turf, but came ROARING down the lane, just, JUST up in time. Doubled the bet and cashed for another $25 plus. And then to top off the amazing five race run, at Santa Anita in their seventh race I liked Ready Soul to win this entry level allowance. It was a mile on the turf and this one was making his first start in Southern California. I liked that the barn was 24% with new runners to the barn like him, but even more so I liked that top rider Flavian Prat was lured on board AND he was winning at a 30% clip for this barn. Tracked the pace through the turn, was clear into the stretch and ran by them all late. And like Purimeter, Ready Soul was also 4/1 at post time. Paid an even bigger $10.80 allowing me to cash for $54.
So after missing on those six races I cashed four of the next five and collected nearly $200. WHOOO HOOOOO. I missed on the next two Santa Anita picks. The first was a popular pick but he didn't run a lick, then in the ninth, in the Snow Chief Stakes None Above The Law was a prohibitive even money favorite and was FLYING through the lane, but just missed. An hour later the feature for the day was the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano. This was an unusual race for a couple of reasons....first, the distance of the race was a marathon mile and three-quarters, on the dirt. And second, the winners of the 2020 San Juan (Red King), the 2019 San Juan (Acclimate) were both in here. Despite the marathon distance - where most people think that favors late runners - Acclimate looked awfully solid to me because he was the one and only front runner. The fact he'd gone wire to wire at this distance before, HERE, made him even more appealing. He got some late betting action - I'm sure in part because the TVG handicappers were saying several times, "Is there ANYONE who will go with Acclimate? I think he's going to be all alone on the front end." I was thinking, "Would you guys just shut up and not give away the keys to the kingdom?" WOW. Right to the front and L-O-N-G gone. When the field began to make up ground on the far turn the rider asked and he spurted away to win convincingly.
Prior to the race I'd told Kim that IF I didn't win it was a good day with over 30% winners and a $50+ profit. But with this final score I finished 12-for-29 (41.2% WINS) and with a profit of $85.
Saturday June 19 Highlights
Sunday rolled around and the one thing I always fear about Sundays - but rarely happens - did. After the big day on Saturday I couldn't find the winner's circle from eight picks. STILL for the extended weekend I finished 15-for-49, a good 31% AND made a profit IN SPITE of the winless conclusion to the racing weekend.
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