Memorial Day Weekend: May 28 - 31
For me, the opening of Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore marks the real start of the summer racing season, and I'm always glad to get back to more than just weekend racing. I enjoy handicapping nearly every day during the winter for the Gulfstream Meet, but I don't think I could do that year round, even with breaks. So for the first two months after the Florida Derby I handicap largely just on the weekend. But once Monmouth opens, I handicap every one of their live programs. What I like about the summer schedule is that Monmouth only runs on Friday-through-Sunday, so it's regular play but not like the nearly-every day handicapping "job" that Gulfstream presents. This year however, instead of a buzz of excitement for the opening of the meet, there was a dark cloud of controversy caused by the management at Monmouth enacting a new rule that basically bans the use whips by the riders. Not only has this led to a lot of public conflict but most the leading riders have opted NOT to ride here. So I was very interested to see what kind of racing we'd get, and how the races would unfold. As I write this the first four days of racing have gone by and I honestly can't say that any of my horses would not have finished differently had they used a whip. And while maybe, just maybe a few of the runners might have perservered a little better, I don't believe the results would have been different. It didn't help matters, in terms of public perception and/or acceptance of this that the weather was terrible. It rained all weekend long diminishing fields with scratches, and obviously washing all the turf races off the grass. Still, I had an excellent four day weekend. Here's how it all unfolded......
Friday May 28
Today was also Penn Mile Day, THE big day at Penn National where the early part of the twilight card features multiple stakes races....all on the turf. Unfortunately, the same weather system that dumped all the moisture on the Jersey Shore also washed the races off the grass at Penn. So instead of having a full evening of racing I was left with seven races, including the off-the-turf Jersey Derby. I ran 2nd once (in the Monmouth opener) and third twice with a fourth. But I did collect my first win of the Monmouth season when Kosciuszko drew off through the lane in the fourth as an easy winner.
Saturday May 29: Stephen Foster Preview Day at Churchill Downs
Especially with the rain-impacted card on the Jersey Shore I was glad to have handicapped the card in Louisville where there were SIX stakes races serving as preps for the end-of-spring-meet signature day. After running fifth in the Monmouth opener I ran 2nd at 9/5 in the second half of the Jersey Shore early double and then was second at Churchill Downs with the prohibitive favorite, Vodka and Water who looked on paper to be a near certain winner. Finally cashed the first winning ticket in the 2nd at Churchill, an entry level allowance where I liked a horse by the name of "NOPE." The very first thing I thought of when I saw the name was my wife....why? Because when we were on the American Cruise Lines sailing of the Columbia River we went to Multnomah Falls. But we were not allowed to go close to the falls because of work being done due to a recent fire. Well, that was the ENTIRE POINT of the excursion, duh. So she had on the appropriate shirt and bought a hat that asked, "WTF are the Falls?" as you can see at left. Nope, the horse, was patiently handled while running fourth to the bottom of the turn. When asked for run he flew by and drew off impressively. Cashed for nearly $15 and the winning ways had begun!
Scratched choice in the fourth at Monmouth (off the turf) before running fourth at 1-2 with what looked like a very likely winner. Sigh....then in the fifth at Monmouth it was a six furlong allowance and Target Tales looked the part of a deserving favorite. He was sent off as the 3/2 favorite and came rolling with all the momentum from near the back into the stretch. If you'd stopped the race at the furlong pole I'd have predicted he'd blow by and win by daylight, but instead the top two kept on going......PHOTO FINISH.
I'd doubled the bet, so collected the "full" fifteen dollars on that one as I turned the page to continue the racing afternoon. Passed in Louisville, off-the-turf scratch at Monmouth, and ran 3rd at 7/2 in the first of the stakes events under the Twin Spries. The seventh at Monmouth was originally a PASS for me. But I'd written in my analysis, "....it's Chad Brown again with 3-Bottle Rocket Man (5/1) making just his second start......take note, especially if the first two Brown selections don't win you SHOULD bet here because I won't be...." Well, to be fair, the first two Chad Brown runners I'd picked DID NOT win, but then, they were both turf runners that scratched. Was I prophetic when I wrote my analysis? Decided to jump in. He came surging between horses in deep stretch to be up in time! Third winner and second on the Jersey Shore card.
Scratched out of a Churchill pick and a PASS at Monmouth led to the BET of the Weekend in the Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs. On paper this looked to be the "Free Bingo Square" in the Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-5 sequences....and it was the "SINGLE" for the America's Day At The Races analyst. Bill Mott's Envoutante had won big at first asking then tried the turf in a GP stakes. Evenly. Came back and impressed in an allowance, then ran third in the Grade 1 Ashland and fourth in the Grade 1 Alabama. Finished out her sophomore campaign with a win in the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks and here in the Grade 2 Falls City - at today's distance. First off the bench this season she was third behind Shesadaredevil - last year's Kentucky Oaks winner - in the Grade 2 Azeri; then last time out she was a close second in the Grade 1 La Toienne behind Shesadaredevil again. Down into listed company she laid over the field. Pressed the longshot leader to the far turn, glided by and kissed the field a pleasant good afternoon to score handily. WHOOOO HOOOOO.
The next race on the sheet was the second of three BIG Bets and I was amazed and thankful here. It was the featured Mr. Prospector from Monmouth going six furlongs. And after looking over the field I was willing to concede some skepticism about Wind of Change since he'd not won since March of 2020. But on the rail, with the best early speed in the field. Add in he was dropping out of seven stakes tries in his last eight starts while most of the rest of the field had never been in a stakes. I had to double and triple check my number and the analysis as he was 5/1 when the horses were approaching the starting gate and then dropped down but wasn't the post time favorite as the gates opened. I guess a lot of people were surprised, except me because he went right to the front and when asked to run turning for home, he opened up and ran away. YOWZA - he paid $6.60 so I was cashing for nearly $70 on my "prime time" investment. In the span of less than two minutes my two wagers had caused my Xpressbet bankroll to inflate by over $100 :)
Missed in the opener at Santa Anita when the 4/5 favorite was caught in deep stretch. Had the "obvious" winner of the Grade 3 Regret on the turf at Churchill and the 7/5 Spanish Loveaffair took the lead in the lane but was caught late, second. And ran second in an off-the-turf allowance at Monmouth with a main-track-only selection. Now it was time for the second at Santa Anita. And I'll be the first to admit that one of the reasons for the selection was the horse's name and the images it stirred in my fantasy world.....
Sharapova went right to the front, dug in when challenged in the lane and dueled to the wire, holding on to score at a generous 2/1 price. While waiting for it to be official I watched my next pick at Monmouth go off at even money and run near the back all the way around the track. Then the prices came up and I cashed for OVER $15 on the minimum bet. Thank you Maria!!
Next up was the Grade 3 Matt Winn for three-year-olds at Churchill Downs. I have to say that maybe, just maybe some of the Churchill Downs bettors had access to my column because the 5/2 Fulsome was bet down to 9/5 favoritism in a pretty well-matched field. I liked that after taking an off-the-turf event at Keeneland, trainer Brad Cox entered him in the $300K Oaklawn Invitational and he won again. The bet wasn't looking so good when the field hit the far turn and he was lagging at the back. But jockey Florent Geroux gave him the "GO" signal and he immediately began passing horses, struck the front and galloped away as a most impressive winner.
Collected nearly $30 on winner #7 on the day. Passed the third at Santa Anita and another scratch in the Monmouth finale. The tenth at Churchill Downs was the Aristides, a six furlong sprint which looked WIDE WIDE open to me. But I did like the fact that Bango was the epitome of a "Horse-for-the-Course" with four wins in seven tries locally. Last out he ran in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on the Derby undercard. The pace was hot and Bango lay smartly towards the back. BLitzed by horses on the turn, got to the front and held off the late closers to win at a generous 4/1 price.
Cashed for nearly $30 on a minimum play, that doesn't happen very often. Missed out west before it was time for the final stakes event in Louisville. I've already hit three of the four, could I make it a superfecta with Set Piece in the Douglas Park stakes on the turf. Exiting a win HERE in the Opening Verse during Derby Week I just thought this horse was a perfect fit. Success on the turf, and on THIS turf; going for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux; AND his finishing style would be set up by the pace flow. Sure enough, near the back to the far turn, he was let go without really being asked and in a blink of an eye, he'd gone from the back to the front. Quickly clear he lengthened the margin with each stride to draw off impressively. WOW.
Cashed for nearly $25 on the NINTH winner of the day. I am having a good day. What turned out to be the final winner, number ten on the day came in the Grade 3 Daytona at Santa Anita, a six and one-half furlong turf dash. DRF analyst Brad Free is the lone public handicapper still around who's opinion can influence me. So when I read his comment that, "...Bombard should win this Gr 3 sprint...." I recognized that as a pretty strong endorsement. I liked that he was the inside speed and looked long gone to me. Exactly on point....right to the front and never challenged.
Missed on the last two out west, including my "best" bet when United just didn't run as the 1/5 favorite in a five horse field in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham. But for the day, I closed it out with ten wins from twenty-two selections and a clear profit on the day!
Sunday May 30
Today the rains played havoc with my selections as by the end of the day I had three picks on the Monmouth Sunday card. Two of the first three were turf picks, lost to the weather and a PASS in between. In Race 4 we were going a mile-70 and Brice looked to be the clear speed. He was, and he opened up into the stretch with a multiple length lead. But at the furlong pole he was obviously tiring, can he last.......just barely.
But hey, a win is a win :) In the seventh it was another mile-70 event, this one an entry level allowance. Todd Pletcher sent out $650K Sales Grad Ashaar who was the 3/2 favorite. Evenly behind the leaders, and when asked to run into the lane, no response....fourth. The next, and final pick of the day was in the featured Politely Stakes scheduled to go five furlongs on the turf. Here's what I wrote in my analysis, "..... Wet or dry the feature goes through 6-Miss Aurmet (3/1) who is quick enough to be on the lead and wire this field, or she has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and track the leaders before making the winning move. Not a fan that she was odds on in BOTH her last two and failed to deliver, but I would argue that her best effort, three back winning Tampa’s Lightning City Stakes came with a stalking trip as opposed to the pressing style into exceptionally hot fractions in the last two...." Much like the Saturday feature I was so amazed that she was getting no attention and was listed between 5/1 and 6/1 as I watched the broadcast on TVG. Hottie handicapper Gabby Gaudet was AT Monmouth this weekend and as the horses were walking towards the gate she was asked about her thoughts on the race. Gabby mentioned the favorite, but then she said, "...but the horse I've been looking to is Miss Aurmet. I saw her run over the sloppy going at Gulfstream in a stakes against a very good and very quick front runner, Lady's Island, and she nearly caught that one. I think she should be favored here so at this price I think she's the right play." I was hoping not too many people were tuned in to Gabby's comments. The gates sprung open and Miss Aurmet secured a good spot on the rail, just a couple lengths off the leaders in fourth. As the field spun out of the turn the rail opened up wide enough to drive an 18-wheeler through and she shot through, quickly assumed command and drew off. I was clapping out loud and my sister, visiting from Ohio, said, "I take it you have that one?" And I replied, "Not only do I have her, but I'm about to cash for nearly $50!"
Sure enough, the pay out was $47 to me and I finished 2-for-3 on the day with another healthy profit.
Monday, May 31: Memorial Day
There were multiple stakes races at Lone Star, and nothing really at Churchill that caught my eye, nor at Gulfstream. Then I saw that today was Big Apple / New York Bred Showcase Day at Belmont with a number of state-bred stakes. So I handicapped Belmont, Monmouth (of course), and Santa Anita where they had three Grade 1 events at the end of the card. Again, even with the sun shining in New Jersey, the three days of rain took all the turf races off yet again. I stuck with my first bet in the 2nd and ran third at 2/1. And then I went on a nice run. The opener at Belmont was a Maiden Special going six and a half furlongs. My top choice was Big Bobby who had earned a huge 80 Beyer when running 2nd behind a colt who was entered in one of the NY-bred stakes later today. Add in that it was a Bill Mott colt, and those next to never run well at first asking like Big Bobby did. AND that he had trouble at the break and was quickly tenth of eleven before rallying. Finally, toss in Irad Ortiz up today. Swooped up five wide into the lane and had to work harder than I would have imagined, but he won by daylight with my triple investment on board.
The third at Monmouth was an entry level allowance and I like Momos who was last seen in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I thought if ready he'd be best. But I also noted there were several likely win candidates. Top of the stretch it was a three way duel, but despite being on the inside he would NOT let anyone pass, WINNER number two.
Right back to Belmont in an allowance event where Time Limit was a ridiculous 15/1 on the early DRF morning line. Sent off at a juicy 7/2 he dueled with the favorite to the top of the lane then took off as easily best. THREE in a row!
A maiden event at Monmouth was next. Karen's Way leaped off the page in this $16K maiden turf sprint. But what about on the main track. Looked back at the pp's and she'd run well on the dirt as well. Hustled to the front and LONG gone as easy as they come.....FOUR in a row.
The first of the added money events in New York was next, the Bouwerie Stakes and I particularly enjoyed this one. The "grumpy old man," Andy Serling told everyone listening on America's Day at the Races how good his pick, the favorite was and how he couldn't understand why everyone wasn't making him the short priced favorite. Everyone else was just so wrong to be missing this slam dunk winner. Well, he was not MY pick either Andy-dandy-sugar-candy Mr. Grumpster. Serling's horse held the lead turning for home, but then Irad Ortiz, on my pick, Betsy Blue, flicked his wrists. The filly switched outside the favorite and took off like a rocket putting more than half a dozen lengths between her and the losing chalk. OHHHH YESSSS Mr. Serling - $8.10 on the winner you did NOT have.
Missed on four in a row before arriving at the sixth, the off-the-turf Mt. Vernon Stakes at Belmont. My BEST BET of the Day had been in here, but on the turf. Only four runners left so I didn't think I'd be interested, but following along online I saw that Robin Sparkles was being hammered. Listened in on the analysis and everyone seemed to agree she was CLEARLY not a miler, but today, as the lone speed under Jose Ortiz she'd control the speed and take these fillies wire to wire in hand. Well, almost right as she was clear into the lane before beginning to shorten stride late, but the wire came first and I had another stakes winner in New York!
Missed at Monmouth and in the opener at Santa Anita before it was time for Belmont's Mike Lee Stakes. Here I liked River Dog, and I now liked him even more because the colt he'd beaten in his maiden debut, Big Bobby, won the opener. Even though he'd only been out once, you just couldn't look past the gaudy 96 Beyer he'd earned. Even a regression of double digits should still win. He pressed the leader under Irad to the lane, opened up by daylight and was driving to the wire as a decisive winner. WHOOOO HOOOO.
Missed at Santa Anita and Belmont before cashing the first of two tickets out west. In the third at Santa Anita, going six furlongs on the turf, Perfectionistic would be flying from the back. But there looked to be plenty of pace for him to run at. I almost changed the bet when another hottie handicapper, Christina Blacker talked on air about the big stats her husband Dan Blacker had with the horse he had entered. Wavered, but then NO. Stuck with the bet. Perfectionistic was rolling from the back and oh, this is going to be close......PHOTO FINISH!
WHEW that was oh-so-close :) From 5 pm until nearly 7:30 pm I had one bet, and I ran a dismal 9th. But the late bet was the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. As I wrote in my analysis, I tried, I really did, to find someone other than the favorite. But in the end Smooth Like Strait looked to be THE CONTROLLING speed and he just looked way too fast, loose on the lead. The public ignored all the "value play" options that the TVG crew were tossing out and made 'Strait the 3/5 pick. The gates opened, he quickly cleared the field and was long, LONG gone earning a spot in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile in November.
I owned a horse in the Grade 1 Gamely, my last pick of the day but didn't think she was a legitimate wagering option. She ran sixth. My pick was right there in mid-stretch at 8/1 before fading to fourth. BUT, for the day an outstanding 9-for-19 with a nice profit, AGAIN. And for the weekend, I was stellar, if I do say so myself :) Back at it next week when it's Belmont Week!
Memorial Day Weekend Highlights
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