July 21 - 25

 Coaching Club American Oaks Weekend

Saratoga kicked off the week of racing on Wednesday and I had picks all the way through Sunday evening.  This week was NOT the kind of week to brag about, but I felt better when I turned on the TVG broadcast on Sunday and both analysts remarked how they had suffered through a "tough day" on Saturday.  Yeah...me too, and that was true for most of the week.  But hey, you keep on firing and I KNOW that at some point the numbers will even out.  The racing began on Wednesday when I was visiting the grandsons in Cape Coral.  Began the day by running a distant 7th at even money then thought I had a chance on the far turn at 8/1 before fading to 8th.  In the 9th, a nine furlong event I went with Forza di Oro who was trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott.  Pressed the issue to the far turn then took over and ran away impressively, so much so that talk afterwards was we might see him next in one of the big graded stakes at the Spa.

From the posting of prices after this victory I went the next twenty-seven selections in a row without a single ticket to cash.  And that included two favorites at 1/5 odds, two at 1/2 odds, one at 3/5, two at 1/2 and one at even money.  NADA, couldn't get into the winner's circle until the Saturday feature at Monmouth.  But about a half hour before that was one of the best races of the day, and the most disappointing result.  Todd Pletcher's unbeaten filly Malathaat - who had drawn a $1 million sales bid - had won the Grade 1 Ashland and then the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  Today she scared away all but three rivals in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks.  EVERYONE said she was the clear winner unless something very unusual happened.  At 1/5, it did.  Her hand was forced from the rail early by the longshot, when she edged clear of that one on the backstretch the Steve Asmussen filly came to her quickly.  When she put that one away at the top of the lane, the initial challenger came to her in the lane.  A sensational stretch duel, and she JUST missed.  Gallant effort, but the Bet of the Weekend had gone down to defeat.

The first winner, ironically after that long string of losses, came with a minimum bet in a turf race where next to none of these had any turf form at all.  And that was the reason I landed on He'spuregold, in that he HAD turf form.  Always reminded in situations like this of the handicapping adage, "turf winners win turf races."  As the leaders swung into the stretch the rail opened and jockey Nik Juarez shot through to gain the advantage and inch clear late.  Just to get a winning ticket, of any kind, I was happy that the skid was finally over.  

And as is typically the case, for the remainder of the weekend I went 12-for-25 and had a whole lot better feeling about my handicapping by the end of racing on Sunday than I did late afternoon Saturday!  Minutes after scoring in the Monmouth feature I got my lone tally on the Pimlico card, and it was in THEIR premier stakes event, the Grade 3 Baltimore-Washington Invitational going a mile on the turf.  I thought that he was a big time win candidate.  Others COULD win but in the twelve races showing on the page, he'd won four of them, three in Gr 3 company like this.  But more impressive was that in the other eight stakes he'd faced FAR better and had been competitive with rivals that would be 1-9 in here.  He drew the 1-hole and was saving ground into the backstretch.  That's when I saw the problem coming.....no one was going to let him get into the clear!  Patiently handled, he waited for a seam and when they turned for home the narrowest of holes opened and the rider shot into it.  Immediately the front runner tried to ease closer to the rail to intimidate his rival but Field Pass and the jockey were having none of it!  Inside the final 16th he got his head in front and edged clear late.  I'd gone prime time and stuck with it - whoooo hooooo.

Missed in three in a row before the horses were in the gate for the 9th at Saratoga.  It was a first level allowance and those are always difficult to predict.  BUT, Caramel Swirl from the Bill Mott barn looked really solid to me.  She'd run second on debut to Malathaat - see above, the top 3yo filly.  And she'd then faced a filly who came right back to win a stakes.  When finally getting back to one turn at Keeneland she romped in her maiden win.  Tried the Grade 2 Eight Belles on Kentucky Derby Day and had a horrible start.  Now with multiple bullet works she faced allowance foes.  Dueled to the top of the stretch and took off as much the best.

Right back with a MSW event at Del Mar.  Sea Dreamer had been a BEST-of-the-rest 2nd while earning a whopping 89 Beyer and finishing eight plus clear of the show filly, who returned right away to win.  She was a multiple Del Mar 40% Club play for trainer Simon Callaghan and EVERYONE on the TVG broadcast talked about her as a single in the Early Pick-5.  Right to the front, confidently handled despite facing pressure then opened up.  After widening through the first 16th of a mile of the stretch, jockey Flavian Prat eased back and let her lope home.  This one is special and stakes bound my friends.

As you can see I went "PRIME TIME" on the investment I was so confident.  And good for me to do so at this point of the day after all the results I'd had.....well played Mr. Mark!  Less than fifteen minutes they were into the gate for the Saratoga co-feature, the Grade 3 Caress Stakes, a 5 1/2 furlong turf dash.  I'd seen Caravel win last time out at Monmouth in a listed event and she could not have been any more impressive while keeping her record unblemished.  Today her main rival was the speedy Robin Sparkles who was exiting back-to-back front running scores - as my top choice!  But I was confident that Caravel would be able to run her down.  Robin Sparkles set sail on a clear lead into the lane but jockey Irad Ortiz was never concerned and when asked, Caravel accelerated by and won handily, lengthening the margin of victory with every stride.  Trainer Tom Amoss who's doing double duty by analyzing on Fox Sports' "Saratoga Live" broadcasts remarked it was THE most impressive win of the day.  I second that!!

Missed the next three but then I got a HUGE WIN and nice payout in Del Mar's co-featured Grade 2 Eddie Read going nine furlongs on the turf.  Veteran United was a multiple graded stakes winner and had won THIS RACE last year.  He'd been a dull 4th as the 1/5 favorite, and my top choice last time out.  But DRF analyst Brad Free commented he had an excuse with a foot problem.  His 2nd best of 78 workers in a sizzling :58.4 told me that this guy was sitting on a big bounce-back race.  I was surprised that the public, and Free loved the main rival Smooth Like Strait.  True, he'd run well at this 9f trip but it seemed oh-so-obvious to me that a mile was his best distance.  That one took command heading for home with United bearing down on the outside.  They dueled before United inched clear late.  WHOOO HOOO.  As I was watching on TVG I had no idea what the odds were, probably 9/5 since he'd hovered around 2/1 and 5/2 and certainly the late money would have come in.  NO WAY JOSE!  He was better than 3/1 at post time and paid an unbelievable $8.60 allowing me to cash for nearly $65.  WOW.

The finale at Del Mar looked to be another single with Global Campaign looking to extend his winning streak to five in a row since coming to North America.  Trapped on the rail he could not get unleashed until inside the final 16th and he looked like a winner, but on the outside a closer who'd built up a full head of steam got to him and out-bobbed him on the wire.  TWICE in big races, sooooo close.

Sunday I had several picks, and I was curious how the day would play out.  Should the results go the way I THOUGHT they'd go, I believed I would have multiple winners.  But I'd thought that last Sunday after a sub-par Saturday and struggled.  As the horses headed for the gate in the Monmouth opener I considered playing a $5 Pick-3 by singling all three of my choices, who I liked a lot.  Was going to pay me $40 for the investment.  But before hitting the "submit" button I considered....what are the chances that all three probable short priced favorites would win?  Not good enough to wage the additional five bucks.  Kratos romped in the opener - even though it looked like they were getting to him late I don't think Paco Lopez ever asked him to run; Tayler's Chrome was a close 2nd choice and won by multiple lengths in the second race; then Frosted Blue overcame trouble and was JUST up in time to score in the third!  WOW, would have had it.  Oh well, with the way the week had gone I was just delighted to be 3-for-3 to start the day.

Kratos EASILY In The Monmouth Opener

Tayler's Chrome By Daylight In The Second

Frosted Blue JUST UP In The 3rd

Missed with a 2/5 shot (part of an entry) at Saratoga.  And then won AGAIN at Monmouth with my fourth pick of the day on the Jersey Shore.  In retrospect I probably should have unloaded here as Nothing Better was a big price play bet.  In this guys first three turf sprints he'd earned Beyer figures of 80, 79, and 81.  Those win by a pole here today.  Then two back the jockey lost the irons, toss that line.  And last time out in a money allowance he was at the back all the way around at Delaware Park.  Back home today, for the leading trainer Jose Delgado, and most importantly....in for a first time claiming tag.  I saw this as a big-time bounce back effort.  He was around 7/2 as they loaded into the gate but as he dueled into the far turn his odds had been hammered down to 9/5 second choice.  That was when rider Tomas Mejia shook the reins and he took off like a shot, winning - as I expected - by a pole.  Cashed for nearly $30 on my fourth in a row on the Shore.  Missed at Saratoga at a solid 5/1, but fortunately I scaled back the bet a notch.  The 7th at the Spa was a runaway win by the odds-on choice, Kaely's Sister - but hey, as we saw all weekend, being an "obvious pick" wasn't going to get you into the winner's circle unless you actually DID cross the wire first!

Nothing Better ROMPS in the 7th - my FOURTH win in a row on the Jersey Shore

Less than twenty minutes later the Monmouth finale went to post.  Mr. Briggs was listed as even money in the program for this mile and a sixteenth MSW try.  Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Paco Lopez you KNEW he'd be bet.  Every race he'd improved and he looked to have a big time speed figure advantage.  Paco had a strangle hold on him all the way down the back stretch pressing the leader.  When let go he rocketed to the front and won by a pole.  WOW - an amazing 5-for-5 at Monmouth.  WHOOO HOOOO.  And good for me for sticking to the plan and following my own selections there.

Got the final winner of the day at Del Mar when Bob Baffert's Del Mar 40% Club play - a 2yo FTS - won stylishly.  As they loaded into the gate Murray was 7/2 and the announcers were remarking that even jockey Mike Smith who was NOT riding had commented that the colt looked awfully fast.  Tracked the favorite into the turn, blew by and ran away in a WOW like performance.

Missed the last three plays of the day but finished 7-for-12 on Sunday with a nice profit.  I'm ready to head back to it next week!

Racing Highlights For July 21-25

Opening Weekend: Saratoga & Del Mar / Haskell Day

July 14 - 18:  A BIG Week Of Racing

So much happening this week!  Let's start with the drive to score some big hits at the boutique meets at Saratoga & Del Mar.  Long the highlight of any horseplayer's summer, both of these highly anticipated meets opened this week.  It's been my experience that I just don't win as often at either of these AND I really didn't want to invest in the day-to-day handicapping like I do for Gulfstream.  But then an idea occurred to me.  In the past I've made some good money by using local handicapper Jim Mazur's books where he does meet-specific statistics.  Specifically I have found some really good prices with his "40% Club" angles and his "Blue Chip Trainer" angles.  So I went online to his sight where I have an account and bought them in a package deal.  It doesn't take more than a half hour to 45 minutes to run through a card limiting my play to these angles, or if I see something that stands out on my own without analyzing each horse in each race.  And so now I've launched my "KEY PLAYS" on my web site for each day at those tracks.  The week began, as has become my practice with Wednesday night at Canterbury as I continue to try and become familiar with that venue in anticipation of Kim and I visiting there in August for their Minnesota Derby card.  I was delighted to discover that this week was "Hall of Fame Night" there with multiple stakes events.  I lost some of my good selections when the weather was rainy, but still won two stakes including the BET of the Night in the Frances Genter Stakes, when Star of the North cruised around the oval.

Thursday July 15:  Opening Day at Saratoga
For today's card I found six races I was interested in.  Four of them had Jim Mazur angles and two were my own selections.  My angle pick in the first scratched out, but my second selection got in when the 4th was the only grass event moved to the main track.  MTO: Kerik was a "Saratoga 40% Club" angle for trainer Orlando Nona - in fact FIVE key angles applied.  Left the gate at a huge 10/1 price and was a sharp second.  Little did I realize that this would be a common theme throughout the five days.  In the fifth, a Maiden Special for 2yo nearly all of the runners were first time starters which would make it difficult to handicap.  But not for this guy because Echo Zulu was debuting for Steve Asmussen and his 2yo FTS are a "Saratoga Blue Chip Trainer" angle.  The filly pressed the pace to the stretch and took off.  Ultra-impressive and the next day she was being touted as a future star and graded stakes runner.

Was a dull 7th in the seventh race with another Blue Chip angle and then in the featured Grade 3 Quick Call I selected the odds-on choice, Wesley Ward's 2yo Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint champion Golden Pal as my "BEST of the Day."  I was very confident, and even more so while watching the telecast on Fox Sports hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney noted how high Ward was on the colt.  But as they approached the gate they flashed a statistic that Ward was 0-for-69 in graded stakes at the Spa.  Uh oh.  But no problem, Golden Pal ran away as tons, TONS the best.  And so I finished the day 2-for-4 with a good second and made a solid profit for the day.

Friday July 16:  Opening Day at Del Mar 
Today the highlight was not just the opening day card at Del Mar "where the surf meets the turf," but today one of the horses I OWN was running - Going To Vegas.  She would be a short priced favorite, but by all indications, not only in looking at the Racing Form, but from the information shared to me and all the other owners, she was coming into this money allowance in sharp form, as well as racing out of graded stakes company for the first time in several months.  I made her the "BEST of the Day."  It just had not occurred to me before preparing for today, that for the duration of the Saratoga & Del Mar racing seasons the three-day weekend would be quite busy as I would have KEY SPOT Plays from these two tracks AND my daily full card selections from Monmouth.  With the late start on Friday's at the Jersey Shore and Del Mar obviously being on west coast time, the first set of plays came in upstate New York.  Missed with four in a row, all angles from the Mazur book - sandwiched around a win in the Monmouth opener when somehow the crowd let a Todd Pletcher/Paco Lopez runner get away at $7.00 allowing me to collect well over $30.  Then I almost getting almost back to even at Saratoga with the last "Saratoga Blue Chip" trainer angle play.  I only got 2/1 at post time on Rinaldi in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple Stakes after he was listed at a big 8/1 in the program.  I really liked my chances as I thought he'd be the lone speed and I did NOT like the probable favorite.  But the other speed horse scratched out so everyone could see that Rinaldi would be loose on the lead.  The fact that I DID get better than 2/1 was a handicapping gift, and just before post time I upped the wager to a triple investment.  Never looked back under Luis Saez and paid $6.70 so I collected over $50.

Del Mar and Monmouth began almost simultaneously and the first bet came at Del Mar where I faded to 7th with a 40% Club play at a short 8/5 in their second race.  I won the third at Monmouth when Ty Ran A Homer scored at a big 3/1 just minutes before the Going To Vegas race began.  Watched the TVG crew interview our trainer Richie Baltas and he said he expected her to run big today.  She broke sharply from the outside post, went right to the front runner in the 9f turf affair and pressed the leader while relaxed and under a firm hold.  When let loose she ran away as I cheered loudly!  Even though I've collected winning shares from two other horses I own, both of those purse shares came - don't ask me how - well after I'd purchased them in races they won BEFORE I was a part owner.  So this was the very first time a horse I was a part owner of won, live in front of me.  I was wishing I could have taken advantage of the ticket opportunity to be there and pose with the huge crowd in the winners' circle, but to cash the ticket and know I had a "check" coming for my share of the winnings was good enough for me!

Won the Monmouth finale - after upping the bet as Free To Fly was hammered at the windows and won for fun as Paco's third win of the evening.  Then got my first "Del Mar 40% Club" winner in the 7th race, a first level allowance turf sprint.  Little Juanito was going for trainer Victor Garcia who was a club member with any runner coming off a 90+ day layoff.  Pressed the pace to mid-stretch then set sail for the wire as much the best.  Had been 6/1 in the program but was bet down to 2/1.  Still, cashed for $30 and that was a good payout.

In the finale, the traditional opening day feature - the Oceanside Stakes for 3yo going a mile on the turf - I had to choose between TWO "Del Mar Spot Plays" as Crew Dragon was a "40% Club" angle and Flashiest was a "Blue Chip Trainer" angle.  I honestly went back and forth, but in the end I opted to go with the former who was trained by John Sadler.  His angle is in ALL Del Mar stakes where he's entered he wins at a big 43% clip.  Flashiest was sent out by Leonard Powell.  At the time I made the selection they both qualified because the Blue Chip angle with Powell is a turf allowance or stakes runner going off at odds of 5/1 to 10/1.  Listed at 6/1 in the program he qualified.  With the best turf rider at Del Mar, Umberto Rispoli on the former I opted for him.  As it turned out Flashiest would NOT have technically been a play.  With a furlong to go Crew Dragon split horses and had dead aim on the leader while Flashiest was a couple lengths farther back and about six wide.  With 50 yards to go Crew Dragon hit the front with Flashiest gaining....PHOTO FINISH....

So close - like soooo many races this weekend.....had I decided to play an exacta it would have netted over $150.  Sigh......

Saturday July 17

The signature day at Monmouth Park featured SIX big stakes with five of them graded.  In addition I handicapped the Saratoga & Del Mar cards, AFTER I'd gone through the "KEY PLAYS" and put them on the selections sheet.  When I came to those races while handicapping my usual way I just went right on by....didn't want to have "a better idea!"  I decided to also play Woodbine and Arlington to give me a super-full day of racing - from noon to 10 pm - especially with Kim being gone for the weekend.  It was a L-O-N-G day at the Sunrise Simulcast Center.  On the upside, I picked the winner in FOUR of the six stakes at Monmouth, including my BET of the Weekend in the Wolf Hill Stakes where The Critical Way romped as much the best at a short price early in the card.  I had upset picks in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup and Grade 1 United Nations where they were respectfully 4/1 and 8/1 in the program but only paid off at 5/2 and 8/5 - still felt good about being right.  And I had the winner of the $1 Million Grade 1 Haskell as Hot Rod Charlie just nipped my second choice Mandaloun on the wire.  But in mid-stretch Midnight Bourbon tried to split the two of them and took a bad step tossing leading rider Paco Lopez.  There was an INQUIRY and after having let an OBVIOUS DQ winner stand earlier in the day - when I had the runner-up who SHOULD have been elevated - I was pretty confident there would be no change; especially after watching the replays and knowing how stewards really dislike getting involved in these high level stakes outcomes.  But they took 'Charlie down, wow.

At Saratoga I hit one "Saratoga 40% Club" winner when Steve Asmussen's 2yo first timer Chattalot won at 9/5 - I upped the bet right before post time!  And I had the winner of the Grade 3 Sanford, the first graded stakes for 2yo in the country.  I had picked Todd Pletcher's Wit in his debut on Belmont Day and he was left at the gate but circled the field and won going away.  Ultra impressive and he was even more so today.

From the Woodbine and Arlington cards I went winless in ten tries - that was NOT good.  Late in the day I won with two "Del Mar 40% Club" plays and a third that I picked on my own.  The third win, and the final winner of the day came when Express Train won for trainer John Sheriffs who wins with a club level percentage with horses off a 90+ day layoff.

The real story of the day however was the unbelievable amount of second place runners I had - and not only that but nine of the eleven were so close....and I had all kinds - clear on the lead, just caught on the wire; closing late, JUST missed; the non-DQ; the DQ; troubled trips.  The odds of all these scenarios happening on one day (and then again on Sunday) was just hard to imagine.  But as I texted with Keith who was playing along - you just have to go with it because our day will come where we WIN a bunch of these.

The losses in these, and then adding in another from the Sunday finale cost me nearly $500 in winnings.  Oh what a weekend it COULD have been.

Sunday July 18
We were off the turf at Monmouth which cost me some selections and I thought today was the "bounce back" day as I won with two of the first three bets.  But that was it for the Jersey Shore - and both of them were odds-on payouts.  Had only two "KEY PLAYS" from Saratoga, both 2yo maiden events and ran 4th and 7th.  Del Mar looked to be more of the same when I was a dismal 8th at 6/1 with the first pick.  But I closed with a rush......won the 6th with Miss Algeria who was a "Del Mar 40% Club" play for trainer Victor Garcia (remember he won for me on Friday) coming off a 90+ day layoff.  She cruised up and finished to job at a $6 payout, getting me back $30.  Then in the two feature races I tripled the bet on my OWN Key Play selections.  In the Wicker Stakes Neptune's Storm was allowed to go off at a generous 6/5 despite being the "OBVIOUS" - at least to me - lone speed.  Jockey Flavian Prat back down the fractions masterfully and the other riders just watched him circle the track unopposed.  Cashed for over $30.

Then in the featured Grade 3 Cougar II stakes going a mile and a half on the main track, Tizamagician, also ridden by Prat, looked to be the lone speed but when another price horse insisted on the lead Prat sat just off of the leader through the first mile and a quarter, then midway on the turn joined the fight, dueled for a furlong and then drew off.  He'd been 4/5 leading up to the post but got absolutely pounded at the windows late to leave the gate at 1/5, costing me some money.

Keith texted me "wouldn't it be nice to finish with four in a row" and I said yes, and thought this would be the "Weekend Maker" if Burgoo Alley could score as he left the gate at 10/1 odds.  Sat the perfect trip in fourth, tipped off the rail and had dead aim on the co-favorite through the final 16th of a mile - PHOTO FINISH....

Yes, like all, ALL the other photos and close finishes, second, again.  I guess I'm just used to hitting at the 40% clip, which has been the case for over a month and with making a profit each week so I felt like I had an "off week."  But in the end, from an expanded menu of 76 selections of the five days, I had the winner in 27 of them for over 35%....cannot argue with those numbers.  But so many short prices on the winners, and several added money bets didn't score; then toss in the nearly $500 in "could have been" winnings and it's easy to understand why I came out below even for the week.

Haskell Week Highlights

How about those "KEY PLAYS" for the week?  The good news, hit on 36% and made a flat bet profit.  The bad news, I had seven seconds to go with the eleven winners....and those seven WOULD have paid a combined  $370 (part of the nearly $500 in seconds overall).  But I was upbeat because as I texted Keith after we just missed in the Sunday finale, we only need one or two of those to make the next three months a big profitable adventure.  And oh so clearly remember the Del Mar Handicapping Project of 2012 when I first used the "Del Mar Handicapper" by Jim Mazur.  The highlighted races in the video below:  Candy Waltz $20.80 / Grumpy Small Mouth $15.20 / Arabian Storm $21.20 / Wink and Wish $17.20 / Racing Aptitude $17.00 / And THE TWO BIG ONES:  Ponchatrain at 17/1 when I had $15 to WIN and Evening Twilight at a whopping 42/1 when I had $10 to WIN.

Del Mar Handicapping Project Highlights - 2012

One last note.  Our "little girl" Jilly Willy was "in the news" on Facebook as her latest book was published and arrived for distribution.  Always like to see our grown-up version of the little girl that lived around the corner for so many years.

Belmont Oaks & Derby Weekend

 July 7 - 11

Another great week of racing over a five day span, and I continued to win at an above average clip.  This makes five consecutive weeks I've hit over 40% of my selections.  WHOOO HOOOO.  And this week kicks off the Del Mar and Saratoga meets.  More on that later.  Here's how the five days played out.  Wednesday's Canterbury card had seven thoroughbred events and then three quarter horse races to close the card - obvious non plays.  In the opener Clickbait looked the obvious "single" of the evening, but ran second at 1/5.  Scored in the fourth with my second pick when Henry O'Henry wired the field.  Then my final pick scratched, so....1-for-2 with a small loss.  Nothing on Thursday, and on Friday at Monmouth the remnants of Tropical Storm Elsa had dumped multiple inches of rain on the course so all turf races were off and the six race card was filled with scratches.  In the opener I stuck with my pick and ran third in an off-the-turf event.  Scratches took us all the way to the 6th race finale and even there my top choice scratched.  BUT in that event I was looking for an upset of the obvious winner, Misty Tate.  When my pick was taken out I went with the favorite and she jogged around to win by daylight.  So, 1-for-two again, and again for a minimal loss.

Henry O'Henry hangs on at Canterbury

Misty Tate SO MUCH THE BEST in the Monmouth finale

Saturday:  Belmont Oaks & Derby Day
For today's slate I played Belmont - with their trio of graded stakes; Delaware - where it was Del 'Cap Day and had some minor stakes to support the feature; Woodbine; and of course Monmouth.  On the Jersey Shore I had two decisive winners at short prices early in the card and ran 2nd and 3rd in three of the other five picks.  At Woodbine I had a short-priced winner, but could not get the money in any of the other five (running 2nd and 3rd in two of those).  The big results came at Delaware and Belmont.  In New Castle, Delaware I was JUST up in time at a nice $6.80 price with Sneer in the opener as Florent Geroux skimmed the rail to be a head in front under the wire.  An then in the Dashing Beauty Stakes I'd looked to go against unbeaten Chub Wagon.  But I just wasn't convinced anyone was good enough to upset the favorite.  Right to the front and just waltzed home without being asked for her best as the prohibitive favorite.

In the Battery Park Stakes I found Gulfstream runner Phat Man had shipped up to run for Kent Sweezy.  This horse showed four graded stakes in his last five starts and had run well.  Under the new rules at Gulfstream he'd had to run without the anti-bleeding medication Lasix in those.  In the only non-stakes, where he COULD use the juice he'd drilled his opponents with a triple digit Beyer.  I thought it would be more of the same today with Lasix and in listed company.  Sat mid-pack to the far turn then swooped up effortlessly five wide to circle the field and run away.  That the crowd let him drift up to 6/5 was a handicapper's gift - thank you "value players!"

In the big Grade 2 Delaware Handicap everyone "knew" that Brad Cox's Bonny South was a foregone conclusion and she was being hammered at the windows.  But right away you could tell she simply wasn't interested in running.  Never close, never threatened and ran a dull fifth at 1-2 odds.  Belmont was where I had my best luck on the day.  From six selections I hit on four of them including the two BIG ONES of the day.  In the fourth Water's Edge ran away after dueling into the lane and I cashed a double investment on the 6/5 favorite.  In the 7th it was the first of the featured events, the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks for three-year-old fillies going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  European superstar rider Ryan Moore was in town to ride internationally acclaimed trainer Aiden O'Brien's star filly Santa Barbara.  She looked so obvious on paper, but the one stat that worried several - including me - was that over the last several years O'Brien shippers were a mere 1-for-69.  OUCH.  Moore had the filly along the hedge through the turn and she was ready to run but was trapped between rivals and behind a wall of runners.  They arrived at mid-stretch with only a 16th of a mile to go and STILL no where to go.  Moore saw a seam, shifted out and asked.  Like a lightning bolt Santa Barbara hit overdrive and blew by to win going away.  It was an exciting burst of talent and I happily cashed my triple investment for more than $30.  

The next win, also at Belmont was THE feature, the Grade 1 $1 Million Belmont Derby for 3yo colts also going a mile and a quarter.  O'Brien & Moore were teaming up with Bolshoi Ballet and everyone seemed to agree that IF he ran his race - and the O'Brien "curse" didn't strike - he would be the winner.  For what ever reason a LOT of handicappers decided to go for more value.  But Moore was having none of that.  He saved ground to the far turn, then knew he had THE horse so he swung out five wide, circled the field and blew by to win for fun.  Cashed for well over $40 on the BET of the Day!

Collected my final win of the day, also at Belmont when Ranger Fox drew off handily in the finale.  That gave me a final day's total of 10-for-28 and I was content, especially knowing I'd hit the BIG ONES at Belmont.

Sunday July 11
Despite a good winning percentage, I'd lost just a little money on Saturday.  I told Kim that I was "ok" with that because I always consider it a good day if I'm one win away from a profitable day.  Had either Bonny South, or one of two price play horses (3/1 and 4/1) who'd run second come in I'd been looking at a "big day."  So I was hopeful that today I'd get back into the black for the weekend.  I had a "prime time play" later in the card and what I thought was a solid play in two other races.  But the left over effects of the rain led to several of the races coming off the turf and more scratches at Monmouth.  One of my better plays scratched out of the opener and in the second race I questioned my choice.  In the second, an entry level allowance I did NOT like the favorite, who'd won for me last time out at a short price.  First, he was stepping up in class, second his figures were going in the wrong direction, and third he was stretching out an extra 16th as a front runner.  All negatives.  The ONLY horse in the field who had NOT run for a tag AND who's numbers were going UP was the second choice, Dalton who was listed at 2/1 in the program.  AND....to begin his career he'd run three very similar races on the Beyer speed figure scale then exploded with a big number in the fourth start.  Today, he was coming fourth off a layoff and the first three were all similar numbers.  UH OH.  Today was "explosion day!"  The class play, with the only ascending numbers, AND a pattern, hello....duh.  But he was a cold 5/1 on the board as the horses went on the track.  Am I wrong?  I re-examined the past performances, checked the multi race payoffs and considered changing.  Then I thought, "You know, here's a case where I'M THE ONLY ONE who apparently gets it."  So I doubled the bet.  He came roaring down the outside to catch the favorite and paid a very generous $9 to net me a return of $45 as my "Day-Maker" of the afternoon!

Missed with the "most obvious" winner when Lady Normandy was an even third in the fourth.  Nothing until the 8th where I just didn't like the favorite who liked to run 2nd or 3rd.  The alternative was "Horse for the Course" Chublicious who'd won for me last time.  BUT that had been the 10yo's first win in a long while.  What were the odds he'd win again, on a class rise?  So I bet just the minimum.  These two came into the stretch together and surged by the pricey front runner.  But just as they did the favorite veered in.  While he didn't really slam into Chublicious, my rider had to duck inside and that made the tiring front runner take up.  Uh oh.  Not really all that bad, but.....  The favorite won and I was a hard trying 2nd.  The horses jogged back and nothing, but then, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there is a rider's objection....."  After several minutes of looking at all angles I thought it was less about what happened to me - though I WOULD argue I MIGHT have won if I had not had to avoid the other horse behind me - but it was more about how badly THAT horse was forced to take up.  HE was cost a better position so the winner was placed FIFTH behind him after being DQ'd and I was elevated to first place!  WHOOO HOOO.  The $14.50 wasn't a major score, BUT a PLUS nearly $15 was a $20 swing from a loss of $5!

The 11th and finale of the day was the featured My Frenchman Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf....and this one stayed on the grass.  Top Monmouth handicapper Brad Free argued against the likely favorite because Chasing Artie was posted inside and had a history of breaking slowly.  But to me, any kind of break other than a bad one and he'd win.  I told Kim as they walked up to the gate that I'd know right away if my chances were good or not.  He broke fine and was pinned inside behind two front runners.  All the credit in the world goes to jockey Albert Jiminez as he didn't swing wide for clear running, but held his horse while waiting for the turn for home and a seam to open on the rail.  Leaders into the lane almost always drift out on that final turn and sure enough the door opened.  He asked 'Artie and the response was immediate as he bolted through and took command!

The win in the feature paid me nearly $25 and I finished 3-for-4 on the afternoon to close out a big week of handicapping with over 40% scores AGAIN.

Belmont Oaks & Derby Weekend Highlights

For the week I hit on nearly 43% of the selections to bring my last five weeks' totals to 81 for 182 which is a 44.8% winning mark!  GO ME.  On Monday I purchased Jim Mazur's handicapping books for both Del Mar and Saratoga and will utilize the "Trainer Blue Chip Angles" and the "40% Club" plays to make spot plays for these two featured meets!

Lastly while watching "America's Day At The Races," hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney - whom I'm Twitter friends with (and we've exchanged multiple messages as well as had a selfie together on Pegasus World Cup Day) - was hosting and looking beautiful as ever.  So I reached out to her with a photo of her on the TV and told her I was watching her.  She replied minutes later to "make my day" :)