July 7 - 11
Another great week of racing over a five day span, and I continued to win at an above average clip. This makes five consecutive weeks I've hit over 40% of my selections. WHOOO HOOOO. And this week kicks off the Del Mar and Saratoga meets. More on that later. Here's how the five days played out. Wednesday's Canterbury card had seven thoroughbred events and then three quarter horse races to close the card - obvious non plays. In the opener Clickbait looked the obvious "single" of the evening, but ran second at 1/5. Scored in the fourth with my second pick when Henry O'Henry wired the field. Then my final pick scratched, so....1-for-2 with a small loss. Nothing on Thursday, and on Friday at Monmouth the remnants of Tropical Storm Elsa had dumped multiple inches of rain on the course so all turf races were off and the six race card was filled with scratches. In the opener I stuck with my pick and ran third in an off-the-turf event. Scratches took us all the way to the 6th race finale and even there my top choice scratched. BUT in that event I was looking for an upset of the obvious winner, Misty Tate. When my pick was taken out I went with the favorite and she jogged around to win by daylight. So, 1-for-two again, and again for a minimal loss.
Saturday: Belmont Oaks & Derby Day
For today's slate I played Belmont - with their trio of graded stakes; Delaware - where it was Del 'Cap Day and had some minor stakes to support the feature; Woodbine; and of course Monmouth. On the Jersey Shore I had two decisive winners at short prices early in the card and ran 2nd and 3rd in three of the other five picks. At Woodbine I had a short-priced winner, but could not get the money in any of the other five (running 2nd and 3rd in two of those). The big results came at Delaware and Belmont. In New Castle, Delaware I was JUST up in time at a nice $6.80 price with Sneer in the opener as Florent Geroux skimmed the rail to be a head in front under the wire. An then in the Dashing Beauty Stakes I'd looked to go against unbeaten Chub Wagon. But I just wasn't convinced anyone was good enough to upset the favorite. Right to the front and just waltzed home without being asked for her best as the prohibitive favorite.
In the Battery Park Stakes I found Gulfstream runner Phat Man had shipped up to run for Kent Sweezy. This horse showed four graded stakes in his last five starts and had run well. Under the new rules at Gulfstream he'd had to run without the anti-bleeding medication Lasix in those. In the only non-stakes, where he COULD use the juice he'd drilled his opponents with a triple digit Beyer. I thought it would be more of the same today with Lasix and in listed company. Sat mid-pack to the far turn then swooped up effortlessly five wide to circle the field and run away. That the crowd let him drift up to 6/5 was a handicapper's gift - thank you "value players!"
In the big Grade 2 Delaware Handicap everyone "knew" that Brad Cox's Bonny South was a foregone conclusion and she was being hammered at the windows. But right away you could tell she simply wasn't interested in running. Never close, never threatened and ran a dull fifth at 1-2 odds. Belmont was where I had my best luck on the day. From six selections I hit on four of them including the two BIG ONES of the day. In the fourth Water's Edge ran away after dueling into the lane and I cashed a double investment on the 6/5 favorite. In the 7th it was the first of the featured events, the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks for three-year-old fillies going a mile and a quarter on the turf. European superstar rider Ryan Moore was in town to ride internationally acclaimed trainer Aiden O'Brien's star filly Santa Barbara. She looked so obvious on paper, but the one stat that worried several - including me - was that over the last several years O'Brien shippers were a mere 1-for-69. OUCH. Moore had the filly along the hedge through the turn and she was ready to run but was trapped between rivals and behind a wall of runners. They arrived at mid-stretch with only a 16th of a mile to go and STILL no where to go. Moore saw a seam, shifted out and asked. Like a lightning bolt Santa Barbara hit overdrive and blew by to win going away. It was an exciting burst of talent and I happily cashed my triple investment for more than $30.
The next win, also at Belmont was THE feature, the Grade 1 $1 Million Belmont Derby for 3yo colts also going a mile and a quarter. O'Brien & Moore were teaming up with Bolshoi Ballet and everyone seemed to agree that IF he ran his race - and the O'Brien "curse" didn't strike - he would be the winner. For what ever reason a LOT of handicappers decided to go for more value. But Moore was having none of that. He saved ground to the far turn, then knew he had THE horse so he swung out five wide, circled the field and blew by to win for fun. Cashed for well over $40 on the BET of the Day!
Collected my final win of the day, also at Belmont when Ranger Fox drew off handily in the finale. That gave me a final day's total of 10-for-28 and I was content, especially knowing I'd hit the BIG ONES at Belmont.
Sunday July 11
Despite a good winning percentage, I'd lost just a little money on Saturday. I told Kim that I was "ok" with that because I always consider it a good day if I'm one win away from a profitable day. Had either Bonny South, or one of two price play horses (3/1 and 4/1) who'd run second come in I'd been looking at a "big day." So I was hopeful that today I'd get back into the black for the weekend. I had a "prime time play" later in the card and what I thought was a solid play in two other races. But the left over effects of the rain led to several of the races coming off the turf and more scratches at Monmouth. One of my better plays scratched out of the opener and in the second race I questioned my choice. In the second, an entry level allowance I did NOT like the favorite, who'd won for me last time out at a short price. First, he was stepping up in class, second his figures were going in the wrong direction, and third he was stretching out an extra 16th as a front runner. All negatives. The ONLY horse in the field who had NOT run for a tag AND who's numbers were going UP was the second choice, Dalton who was listed at 2/1 in the program. AND....to begin his career he'd run three very similar races on the Beyer speed figure scale then exploded with a big number in the fourth start. Today, he was coming fourth off a layoff and the first three were all similar numbers. UH OH. Today was "explosion day!" The class play, with the only ascending numbers, AND a pattern, hello....duh. But he was a cold 5/1 on the board as the horses went on the track. Am I wrong? I re-examined the past performances, checked the multi race payoffs and considered changing. Then I thought, "You know, here's a case where I'M THE ONLY ONE who apparently gets it." So I doubled the bet. He came roaring down the outside to catch the favorite and paid a very generous $9 to net me a return of $45 as my "Day-Maker" of the afternoon!
Missed with the "most obvious" winner when Lady Normandy was an even third in the fourth. Nothing until the 8th where I just didn't like the favorite who liked to run 2nd or 3rd. The alternative was "Horse for the Course" Chublicious who'd won for me last time. BUT that had been the 10yo's first win in a long while. What were the odds he'd win again, on a class rise? So I bet just the minimum. These two came into the stretch together and surged by the pricey front runner. But just as they did the favorite veered in. While he didn't really slam into Chublicious, my rider had to duck inside and that made the tiring front runner take up. Uh oh. Not really all that bad, but..... The favorite won and I was a hard trying 2nd. The horses jogged back and nothing, but then, "Ladies and Gentlemen, hold all tickets there is a rider's objection....." After several minutes of looking at all angles I thought it was less about what happened to me - though I WOULD argue I MIGHT have won if I had not had to avoid the other horse behind me - but it was more about how badly THAT horse was forced to take up. HE was cost a better position so the winner was placed FIFTH behind him after being DQ'd and I was elevated to first place! WHOOO HOOO. The $14.50 wasn't a major score, BUT a PLUS nearly $15 was a $20 swing from a loss of $5!
The 11th and finale of the day was the featured My Frenchman Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf....and this one stayed on the grass. Top Monmouth handicapper Brad Free argued against the likely favorite because Chasing Artie was posted inside and had a history of breaking slowly. But to me, any kind of break other than a bad one and he'd win. I told Kim as they walked up to the gate that I'd know right away if my chances were good or not. He broke fine and was pinned inside behind two front runners. All the credit in the world goes to jockey Albert Jiminez as he didn't swing wide for clear running, but held his horse while waiting for the turn for home and a seam to open on the rail. Leaders into the lane almost always drift out on that final turn and sure enough the door opened. He asked 'Artie and the response was immediate as he bolted through and took command!
The win in the feature paid me nearly $25 and I finished 3-for-4 on the afternoon to close out a big week of handicapping with over 40% scores AGAIN.
Belmont Oaks & Derby Weekend Highlights
For the week I hit on nearly 43% of the selections to bring my last five weeks' totals to 81 for 182 which is a 44.8% winning mark! GO ME. On Monday I purchased Jim Mazur's handicapping books for both Del Mar and Saratoga and will utilize the "Trainer Blue Chip Angles" and the "40% Club" plays to make spot plays for these two featured meets!
Lastly while watching "America's Day At The Races," hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney - whom I'm Twitter friends with (and we've exchanged multiple messages as well as had a selfie together on Pegasus World Cup Day) - was hosting and looking beautiful as ever. So I reached out to her with a photo of her on the TV and told her I was watching her. She replied minutes later to "make my day" :)
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