July 14 - 18: A BIG Week Of Racing
So much happening this week! Let's start with the drive to score some big hits at the boutique meets at Saratoga & Del Mar. Long the highlight of any horseplayer's summer, both of these highly anticipated meets opened this week. It's been my experience that I just don't win as often at either of these AND I really didn't want to invest in the day-to-day handicapping like I do for Gulfstream. But then an idea occurred to me. In the past I've made some good money by using local handicapper Jim Mazur's books where he does meet-specific statistics. Specifically I have found some really good prices with his "40% Club" angles and his "Blue Chip Trainer" angles. So I went online to his sight where I have an account and bought them in a package deal. It doesn't take more than a half hour to 45 minutes to run through a card limiting my play to these angles, or if I see something that stands out on my own without analyzing each horse in each race. And so now I've launched my "KEY PLAYS" on my web site for each day at those tracks. The week began, as has become my practice with Wednesday night at Canterbury as I continue to try and become familiar with that venue in anticipation of Kim and I visiting there in August for their Minnesota Derby card. I was delighted to discover that this week was "Hall of Fame Night" there with multiple stakes events. I lost some of my good selections when the weather was rainy, but still won two stakes including the BET of the Night in the Frances Genter Stakes, when Star of the North cruised around the oval.
Thursday July 15: Opening Day at Saratoga
For today's card I found six races I was interested in. Four of them had Jim Mazur angles and two were my own selections. My angle pick in the first scratched out, but my second selection got in when the 4th was the only grass event moved to the main track. MTO: Kerik was a "Saratoga 40% Club" angle for trainer Orlando Nona - in fact FIVE key angles applied. Left the gate at a huge 10/1 price and was a sharp second. Little did I realize that this would be a common theme throughout the five days. In the fifth, a Maiden Special for 2yo nearly all of the runners were first time starters which would make it difficult to handicap. But not for this guy because Echo Zulu was debuting for Steve Asmussen and his 2yo FTS are a "Saratoga Blue Chip Trainer" angle. The filly pressed the pace to the stretch and took off. Ultra-impressive and the next day she was being touted as a future star and graded stakes runner.
Was a dull 7th in the seventh race with another Blue Chip angle and then in the featured Grade 3 Quick Call I selected the odds-on choice, Wesley Ward's 2yo Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint champion Golden Pal as my "BEST of the Day." I was very confident, and even more so while watching the telecast on Fox Sports hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney noted how high Ward was on the colt. But as they approached the gate they flashed a statistic that Ward was 0-for-69 in graded stakes at the Spa. Uh oh. But no problem, Golden Pal ran away as tons, TONS the best. And so I finished the day 2-for-4 with a good second and made a solid profit for the day.
Friday July 16: Opening Day at Del Mar
Today the highlight was not just the opening day card at Del Mar "where the surf meets the turf," but today one of the horses I OWN was running - Going To Vegas. She would be a short priced favorite, but by all indications, not only in looking at the Racing Form, but from the information shared to me and all the other owners, she was coming into this money allowance in sharp form, as well as racing out of graded stakes company for the first time in several months. I made her the "BEST of the Day." It just had not occurred to me before preparing for today, that for the duration of the Saratoga & Del Mar racing seasons the three-day weekend would be quite busy as I would have KEY SPOT Plays from these two tracks AND my daily full card selections from Monmouth. With the late start on Friday's at the Jersey Shore and Del Mar obviously being on west coast time, the first set of plays came in upstate New York. Missed with four in a row, all angles from the Mazur book - sandwiched around a win in the Monmouth opener when somehow the crowd let a Todd Pletcher/Paco Lopez runner get away at $7.00 allowing me to collect well over $30. Then I almost getting almost back to even at Saratoga with the last "Saratoga Blue Chip" trainer angle play. I only got 2/1 at post time on Rinaldi in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple Stakes after he was listed at a big 8/1 in the program. I really liked my chances as I thought he'd be the lone speed and I did NOT like the probable favorite. But the other speed horse scratched out so everyone could see that Rinaldi would be loose on the lead. The fact that I DID get better than 2/1 was a handicapping gift, and just before post time I upped the wager to a triple investment. Never looked back under Luis Saez and paid $6.70 so I collected over $50.
Del Mar and Monmouth began almost simultaneously and the first bet came at Del Mar where I faded to 7th with a 40% Club play at a short 8/5 in their second race. I won the third at Monmouth when Ty Ran A Homer scored at a big 3/1 just minutes before the Going To Vegas race began. Watched the TVG crew interview our trainer Richie Baltas and he said he expected her to run big today. She broke sharply from the outside post, went right to the front runner in the 9f turf affair and pressed the leader while relaxed and under a firm hold. When let loose she ran away as I cheered loudly! Even though I've collected winning shares from two other horses I own, both of those purse shares came - don't ask me how - well after I'd purchased them in races they won BEFORE I was a part owner. So this was the very first time a horse I was a part owner of won, live in front of me. I was wishing I could have taken advantage of the ticket opportunity to be there and pose with the huge crowd in the winners' circle, but to cash the ticket and know I had a "check" coming for my share of the winnings was good enough for me!
Won the Monmouth finale - after upping the bet as Free To Fly was hammered at the windows and won for fun as Paco's third win of the evening. Then got my first "Del Mar 40% Club" winner in the 7th race, a first level allowance turf sprint. Little Juanito was going for trainer Victor Garcia who was a club member with any runner coming off a 90+ day layoff. Pressed the pace to mid-stretch then set sail for the wire as much the best. Had been 6/1 in the program but was bet down to 2/1. Still, cashed for $30 and that was a good payout.
In the finale, the traditional opening day feature - the Oceanside Stakes for 3yo going a mile on the turf - I had to choose between TWO "Del Mar Spot Plays" as Crew Dragon was a "40% Club" angle and Flashiest was a "Blue Chip Trainer" angle. I honestly went back and forth, but in the end I opted to go with the former who was trained by John Sadler. His angle is in ALL Del Mar stakes where he's entered he wins at a big 43% clip. Flashiest was sent out by Leonard Powell. At the time I made the selection they both qualified because the Blue Chip angle with Powell is a turf allowance or stakes runner going off at odds of 5/1 to 10/1. Listed at 6/1 in the program he qualified. With the best turf rider at Del Mar, Umberto Rispoli on the former I opted for him. As it turned out Flashiest would NOT have technically been a play. With a furlong to go Crew Dragon split horses and had dead aim on the leader while Flashiest was a couple lengths farther back and about six wide. With 50 yards to go Crew Dragon hit the front with Flashiest gaining....PHOTO FINISH....
So close - like soooo many races this weekend.....had I decided to play an exacta it would have netted over $150. Sigh......
Saturday July 17
The signature day at Monmouth Park featured SIX big stakes with five of them graded. In addition I handicapped the Saratoga & Del Mar cards, AFTER I'd gone through the "KEY PLAYS" and put them on the selections sheet. When I came to those races while handicapping my usual way I just went right on by....didn't want to have "a better idea!" I decided to also play Woodbine and Arlington to give me a super-full day of racing - from noon to 10 pm - especially with Kim being gone for the weekend. It was a L-O-N-G day at the Sunrise Simulcast Center. On the upside, I picked the winner in FOUR of the six stakes at Monmouth, including my BET of the Weekend in the Wolf Hill Stakes where The Critical Way romped as much the best at a short price early in the card. I had upset picks in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup and Grade 1 United Nations where they were respectfully 4/1 and 8/1 in the program but only paid off at 5/2 and 8/5 - still felt good about being right. And I had the winner of the $1 Million Grade 1 Haskell as Hot Rod Charlie just nipped my second choice Mandaloun on the wire. But in mid-stretch Midnight Bourbon tried to split the two of them and took a bad step tossing leading rider Paco Lopez. There was an INQUIRY and after having let an OBVIOUS DQ winner stand earlier in the day - when I had the runner-up who SHOULD have been elevated - I was pretty confident there would be no change; especially after watching the replays and knowing how stewards really dislike getting involved in these high level stakes outcomes. But they took 'Charlie down, wow.
At Saratoga I hit one "Saratoga 40% Club" winner when Steve Asmussen's 2yo first timer Chattalot won at 9/5 - I upped the bet right before post time! And I had the winner of the Grade 3 Sanford, the first graded stakes for 2yo in the country. I had picked Todd Pletcher's Wit in his debut on Belmont Day and he was left at the gate but circled the field and won going away. Ultra impressive and he was even more so today.
From the Woodbine and Arlington cards I went winless in ten tries - that was NOT good. Late in the day I won with two "Del Mar 40% Club" plays and a third that I picked on my own. The third win, and the final winner of the day came when Express Train won for trainer John Sheriffs who wins with a club level percentage with horses off a 90+ day layoff.
The real story of the day however was the unbelievable amount of second place runners I had - and not only that but nine of the eleven were so close....and I had all kinds - clear on the lead, just caught on the wire; closing late, JUST missed; the non-DQ; the DQ; troubled trips. The odds of all these scenarios happening on one day (and then again on Sunday) was just hard to imagine. But as I texted with Keith who was playing along - you just have to go with it because our day will come where we WIN a bunch of these.
The losses in these, and then adding in another from the Sunday finale cost me nearly $500 in winnings. Oh what a weekend it COULD have been.
Sunday July 18
We were off the turf at Monmouth which cost me some selections and I thought today was the "bounce back" day as I won with two of the first three bets. But that was it for the Jersey Shore - and both of them were odds-on payouts. Had only two "KEY PLAYS" from Saratoga, both 2yo maiden events and ran 4th and 7th. Del Mar looked to be more of the same when I was a dismal 8th at 6/1 with the first pick. But I closed with a rush......won the 6th with Miss Algeria who was a "Del Mar 40% Club" play for trainer Victor Garcia (remember he won for me on Friday) coming off a 90+ day layoff. She cruised up and finished to job at a $6 payout, getting me back $30. Then in the two feature races I tripled the bet on my OWN Key Play selections. In the Wicker Stakes Neptune's Storm was allowed to go off at a generous 6/5 despite being the "OBVIOUS" - at least to me - lone speed. Jockey Flavian Prat back down the fractions masterfully and the other riders just watched him circle the track unopposed. Cashed for over $30.
Then in the featured Grade 3 Cougar II stakes going a mile and a half on the main track, Tizamagician, also ridden by Prat, looked to be the lone speed but when another price horse insisted on the lead Prat sat just off of the leader through the first mile and a quarter, then midway on the turn joined the fight, dueled for a furlong and then drew off. He'd been 4/5 leading up to the post but got absolutely pounded at the windows late to leave the gate at 1/5, costing me some money.
Keith texted me "wouldn't it be nice to finish with four in a row" and I said yes, and thought this would be the "Weekend Maker" if Burgoo Alley could score as he left the gate at 10/1 odds. Sat the perfect trip in fourth, tipped off the rail and had dead aim on the co-favorite through the final 16th of a mile - PHOTO FINISH....
Yes, like all, ALL the other photos and close finishes, second, again. I guess I'm just used to hitting at the 40% clip, which has been the case for over a month and with making a profit each week so I felt like I had an "off week." But in the end, from an expanded menu of 76 selections of the five days, I had the winner in 27 of them for over 35%....cannot argue with those numbers. But so many short prices on the winners, and several added money bets didn't score; then toss in the nearly $500 in "could have been" winnings and it's easy to understand why I came out below even for the week.
Haskell Week Highlights
How about those "KEY PLAYS" for the week? The good news, hit on 36% and made a flat bet profit. The bad news, I had seven seconds to go with the eleven winners....and those seven WOULD have paid a combined $370 (part of the nearly $500 in seconds overall). But I was upbeat because as I texted Keith after we just missed in the Sunday finale, we only need one or two of those to make the next three months a big profitable adventure. And oh so clearly remember the Del Mar Handicapping Project of 2012 when I first used the "Del Mar Handicapper" by Jim Mazur. The highlighted races in the video below: Candy Waltz $20.80 / Grumpy Small Mouth $15.20 / Arabian Storm $21.20 / Wink and Wish $17.20 / Racing Aptitude $17.00 / And THE TWO BIG ONES: Ponchatrain at 17/1 when I had $15 to WIN and Evening Twilight at a whopping 42/1 when I had $10 to WIN.
Del Mar Handicapping Project Highlights - 2012
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