August 11 - 15 - The FINAL Arlington Million Weekend
Always one of the highlights of the summer racing season, Arlington Million Day at my favorite race track I've ever visited Arlington Park, this weekend was bitter-sweet. Just as they've done with Hollywood Park and Bay Meadows ownership of Arlington, Churchill Downs, Inc. is selling off the property for it's real estate value. As the TVG analysts pointed out on the Saturday broadcast, the closing down of a historic sporting venue isn't new in our current sports society, but what is unique about this in the racing world is that when our venues are torn down, they are NOT being replaced with new ones. For me this was a particularly sad end of the racing in Illinois as I've had many great memories at Arlington. It was the site of my first ever racing adventure. Kim was going out of town and I decided I would fly up and back all on the same day. I booked the flight, got a rental car and then reached out to the public relations department to see if there was ANY chance that I might get to meet my favorite track announcer John G. Dooley, and my favorite racing analyst, hottie handicapper Lauren Masserella. When I arrived I was met at the front desk and they had arranged for me to have a box seat right on the finish line. I was escorted up to the announcer's booth where I got to meet and chat with Dooley and pose for the picture. He was great. Then they took me downstairs where I met Lauren and she had me walk around with her, then took me out to the paddock while she did her pre-race show. Then she showed me around, took me back to meet the other gals in the handicapping department and right before the racing began she took me to my seats. It was a fabulous day. Returned for an Arlington Million on my first trip of my retirement - ten years ago by the way - and I hit all three of the big Gr 1 races. Then I took off for upstate New York and spent the first day of school at Saratoga. Finally, I met my buddy Keith there in August of 2014 for my second Million Day. Great memories. Here's how the week played out.......
Wednesday I did not play the Canterbury Park races as they all looked like cheap events which could go any which way. But note NEXT Wednesday night Kim and I will be in Shakopee, Minnesota and be in the Clubhouse for the Minnesota Derby Evening card. And because of that I was a little more lenient with my selections at Saratoga rather than limiting it to the Progressive Handicapping angles. As it turned out that wasn't the best of ideas as I ran 2nd twice, 3rd twice, and 5th twice in the first six races before finally hitting the winner in the finale. But what helped salvage the day was that Clever Fellow was my BEST Bet of the Day. He was a Saratoga 40% Club play for me, and it marked the third time in the last week that the final race on the card was a Chad Brown class dropping maiden. As the hosts on the Fox Sports Saratoga Live broadcasts have pointed out many times, it's very important to all the human connections - owners, trainers, and jockeys - to win at Saratoga and if you're one of the leaders in the standings, to be the leading owner / trainer / jockey is a big deal. So it's not uncommon for the owners and trainers to drop horses in and risk losing them to get the "W." Brown makes "The Club" with his class droppers (and probably for this reason) and Clever Fellow was again much the best like the previous two Brown droppers.
The "prime time" wager allowed me to get back nearly $40 of my money from the day. From a statistic and money point of view, Thursday turned out to be the best day of the five day racing week. Started right off the bat when Candy Flower won the 2nd at Saratoga in my first bet of the day. She was a Saratoga Blue Chip Trainer play for leading trainer Mike Maker. He makes this group with all turf runners in for less than a $40K tag when coming back in fourteen days and at odds of less than 11/1. Met all these criteria as he went off at a generous 2/1 price. Tracked the leaders to the top of the stretch, got outside into the clear and rand down his stable mate to score and let me cash for $30.
Missed in the Saratoga Dew Stakes where 2yo star Simply Ravishing didn't fire again and was subsequently retired. Missed in the fourth when 2nd at 9/5 and in the 7th when third at 7/2 odds. When I handicapped the Thursday card I found it "interesting" that the finale had a nearly identical and Saratoga 40% Club play as on Wednesday. Chad Brown, dropping a Klaravich runner into a maiden claimer. I almost went "prime time" again, but where as yesterday the horse was going MSW to a $40K NY-bred maiden claiming event, today Amano was going from MSW to an OPEN $75K claimer. So the drop was not nearly as drastic and so the chances of winning - in my opinion - not quite as solid. Still the class drop is "the angle" and because of it was Brown/Klaravich I upped it to a triple investment play. Amano tracked a quick pace while saving ground, moved outside into the clear in the lane, dueled and edged clear late. Paid a HUGE $7.90 - which is highway robbery on a Brown-Klaravich turf runner at Saratoga, and on the drop. Thank you "value players!" Cashed for almost $60 to close out the afternoon's racing....but wait there's racing from Del Mar today!
The opener was another Progressive Handicapping play as Grit and Curiosity was a Del Mar 40% Club angle for trainer Peter Miller. The barn a whopping 67% off a 61-to-90 day layoff like this. And despite 'Grit never having scored on the turf he was the DRF's Brad Free's BEST Bet of the day. Top rider Flavian Prat scoring at a 27% clip for the barn - I mean come on. Tripled the bet. Was at the back of the pack into the turn, moved up into contention but turning for home there was no where to go. Prat looked to his right and saw the narrowest of margins and urged Grit to bully his way through, which he did, then he was clear. Enough time? FLYING through the stretch, JUST UP in the nick of time! Cashed over well over $30!
Right back in the fourth with Dendera who was NOT an angle play, but I liked her anyway. This was a MSW for juveniles going a mile on the turf. She'd debuted in a dirt sprint and was an even fifth. In spite of the less than inspiring first start, and the stretch out in distance she was the morning line favorite; she was Brad Free's top pick; sent out by top trainer John Sadler who had more combined wins with first time turfers than the other trainers in the race combined. AND he was a big $3.43 ROI with second time maidens. Finally, add in top rider Flavian Prat. Oh my. Because it wasn't an "angle" play I only went in for the minimum. Tracked the leaders and held confidently by Prat 2nd into the far turn. Took off and ran away very impressively. Paid a generous $6.20 so I collected over $15 on the minimum play.
Next up was the fifth, a nw3L two-turn mile event with another Del Mar 40% Club play for trainer Simon Callaghan. In fact two angles applied. American Dancer was making the first start of the meet, a 43% win angle and was dropping in class which was a whopping 75% winning angle. Stalked to the turn, swept by as the 3/2 favorite and was clear into the stretch. But then a closer dove down to the rail and blew by to win by daylight. Sigh......With it being Thursday, that's "Big Brother" night on CBS, so I figured I'd watch the eight race with an 8:30 post time after the show. During one of the commercials I was scrolling through Twitter when I saw this post....
Wait, what? So....I won? YES I did! Turned a $10 loss into a $25 WIN! WHOOO HOOO. When I watched the replay of the finale I just had "that feeling." I'd had a difficult time separating the two "Club" plays. Crew Dragon had been 2nd in the Opening Day feature for me at 6/1, in a photo finish to the "other" Club play at 12/1. But Numbero Dix had better numbers and record. Yes, Crew Drago won as the favorite while I ran fourth. Still for the day I went five-for-nine and profited over $60. HORRAY!
Friday The 13th :O With plays from Saratoga, Del Mar and Monmouth I had a dozen plays today. The second at Saratoga was not a Progressive Angle play but Jorge Abreau's 3yo Price Talk had the advantage of being a multiple winner facing older horses with but a maiden win. My only concern was jockey Javier Castellano who can give some pretty questionable rides sometimes. Today the colt was handled confidently behind the dueling leaders, swept up three wide and drove home to win at a 9/5 price allowing me to start the day with an additional near-$30 in the bank.
Missed on the next three before hitting a minimum play at Monmouth. But when Karen's Gem was allowed to go off at 2/1 I still got back $15 for the bet. Missed on the next two, including with Shashashakemeup in the Tale of the Cat Stakes. Would loved to have posted another photo of my girl Shasha whom I worked with at Cypress Bay and this horse always makes me think fondly of her. The finale from Saratoga was another Saratoga 40% Club play for trainer Danny Gargan with his lone angle - horses entered for less than $40K. Already hit with a couple of those and Well Done West was a runaway winner as the 4/5 favorite in the 7f nw2L event.
Missed at Monmouth twice before it was time for what I labeled as the "Day-Maker" play of the day at Del Mar, and it was NOT a "Club" or "Blue Chip" trainer play. In the third at Del Mar the first thing that leaped off the page for me was that Wrong Turn Cupid had fired a huge, best-of-110 bullet work for her debut today. Oh my. This was a MSW turf sprint and no one looked to be a dominant player to me, though the favorite went off at as a prohibitive 3/5 favorite. I read Brad Free's analysis and he added to my confidence - check out what I wrote:
Pressed the 3/5 favorite into the turn and all the while I was thinking, "I'm going to run right by this shot priced favorite!" And I did. Paid $9 and I cashed for $5. But wait, I wasn't done!
Brad Free is the only public handicapper left that his opinion can truly change my mind. I didn't have a play here so I decided to play my top two choices, both first timers in the third, in a $5 daily double with his BEST Bet....
WHOOOO HOOOOO. Cashed for almost $40 on the $15.20 payout! While my profit on the day was only $6, truly what "made the day" was these two combined payouts on the "Day-Maker!"
The big day was here! But as it turned out, it was a l-o-n-g day without many winners until late in the day. And too late to turn the day around. Still, didn't come without some stories. I started the day 0-for-6 before hitting a Saratoga 40% Club winner that paid $9 and allowed me to get some of my money back by collecting $45 on Baby Blythe.
Missed on four more before hitting the first two Arlington Park undercard stakes, including Bramble Queen as a "prime time" play.
To set the stage for the big story, in the two biggest races at Arlington I had my two biggest bets. In the Grade 1 Beverly D I thought Mean Mary not only was the best horse, but as the LONE SPEED she'd be long gone. But I was uneasy seeing that the Euro 3yo filly star Santa Barbara was here. She'd been a big winner for me a month ago in Belmont's Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, but had passed on the Grade 1 Saratoga Oaks last weekend to run here against older. Hmmmm, what did the connections know that I did not? Still, I thought that might help my price. Then when Santa Barbara was being bet as the co-favored even money choice with Mean Mary I was still more anxious. Sure enough, a long shot made 'Mary work on the front end and Santa Barbara blew by to win handily. That hurt. And now it was time for the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. For a couple weeks I'd known that MY HORSE, Got Stormy was running here. And I gave her an upset chance before seeing the field because she'd won this race two years ago and was 2nd last year. And I did NOT like the probable favorite. When the past performances came out I was edgy about betting her, especially when listed as a 10/1 outsider. Her last several races would not win this. And even when she'd won as my BEST Bet at Gulfstream this winter she'd been life and death to hang on in a Gr 3 against lesser. Still....why would trainer Mark Casse enter her in a Grade 1 if she wasn't ready? And her works had been good. As of Saturday morning I still was unsure about how to play the race. I thought that Brad Cox's rising star Set Piece, as my top handicapping choice, was a rising star. But the price was tempting on Got Stormy. When the betting opened and she was bet down to 7/1 I was still more anxious about NOT betting her. I'd thought that maybe I'd bet both my top pick AND Got Stormy. And that thought again crossed my mind. I honestly believe I'd have done that except - as I said early when setting the stage - it had not been a good day so far. In fact as they headed to the post, I'd won 3-of-20 races so far. I was tempted and even put in a 5-horse exacta box, but the $40 cost was too expensive. Sitting on the losing day I reasoned that if somehow she did win, I'd "cash" as an owner. Right out of the gate I knew she was going to run BIG. Sat the perfect trip and when asked blew by to win with authority. AND at a HUGE 12/1 price. The $10 I'd decided to "save" would have returned $135 and made a winner for the day and the week. But no. And the exacta where I'd "saved" $40, I'd have cashed for $172 when my top pick ran 2nd. For $50 I'd have cashed out for over $200. But no..... still, excited MY HORSE won the big one.
Then came the Arlington Million with my BET of the Day. Domestic Spending was 2/5 and could not catch the 25/1 longshot that went wire to wire while walking through slow fractions. Sigh.... Somewhat salvaged the day by winning three of the last six races including the final stakes at Arlington. But all in all, a disappointing day.
Sunday
When I looked at the entries for Sunday I discovered it was Ellis Park Derby Day and decided to add selections for that card to my Monmouth, Saratoga, and Del Mar Selections. The day started slowly as I collected one win from the first seven selections. First post had been a little after noon on the Jersey Shore, and it wasn't until nearly 3pm that I got my second win of the day. But it started a 3-for-4 winning streak, including two in stakes company at Ellis Park! In the Runhappy Debutante for 2yo fillies Verylittlecents went right to the front and wired the field. But entering the stretch she ducked inside and back out leading to a rider's objection. The stewards looked at it several times and then ruled, "DENIED!" and I was the winner. Came right back with the easiest of wire-to-wire wins at Monmouth with Mid Day Image who was my BEST on the Shore today. And capped the sequence with a win in the Runhappy Audobon Oaks at Ellis Park with Caribbean Caper. She looked like the lone speed but she broke a step slowly and was squeezed back. Made her way to a pressing second before they entered the far turn, engaged the leader in the lane and outfinished her in deep stretch. Tripled the bet and cashed for $30 more.
Missed a minimum play at Monmouth before scoring in the Runhappy Ellis Park Derby with Steve Asmussen's Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock. Pressed the leader into the far turn and then was much, MUCH the best in an impressive performance.
Closed the afternoon's racing with three misses but had two later events at Del Mar. Neither of the two late plays were Progressive Handicapping angles but I liked both horses enough to add them as KEY Plays for the day. In the fourth Bob Baffert was dropping Paint Me Lucky into a maiden claiming event and he typically doesn't have horses of "this caliber." But he looked much the best with the 31% sprint-to-route move and it was Brad Free's BEST Bet. Tracked the four long shots into the far turn, swooped by and ran away handily. Then in the 9th Vantastic looked sharp in a starter allowance going a mile on the turf. He was making his third start off a layoff, drew Flavian Prat - who'd ridden him to victory previously in a $50K optional claiming event - and I liked the move from post eleven last time to the rail today. He was behind horses to the turn, split rivals at the top of the lane to collar the leader. Dueled to the final 50 yards and edged clear for my SEVENTH win on the day.
For the weekend, my stats were....
In social media news.....
On Friday I turned on the CBS Local News and my two favorite gal-anchors Lauren Pastrana and Karli Barnett were teamed up today. I took a pic, and tweeted it to them which drew nearly immediate responses WHILE ON THE AIR :)
We have visitors this week - Kim's middle school friend from Iran Yvonne and her 16yo cutie daughter Brianne who is handling leaving her home and friends in Chicago with great maturity. Asking a lot of a high school teen to do that AND live with two strangers while looking for a home.
And finally, my girl Kimmy who I've often met and posted about as a real gal-pal adult friend after being in my class as a high schooler, had her first baby this week. After 36 hours of being induced and then 15 hours of labor she went through a C Section for delivery. Mother and daughter both beautiful and doing well :)
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