Whitney Handicap Weekend

 August 4 - 8

WHAT A Weekend :)  After totaling all my numbers for the summer last week before racing began, I was ready to tackle another five days of handicapping.  I must say that the most impressive thing, TO ME, about my four month numbers were how good the numbers were in spite of a week ago suffering through a 27-race losing streak.  I MUST be doing something right :)  AND I will add that I would have even better numbers were I not playing the Jim Mazur Progressive Handicapping angles which are designed to make money, not high win percentages.

The week began Wednesday and when I looked at the Canterbury entries they were all cheap claimers and maiden affairs so I opted out.  That left me with just four KEY PLAYS from Saratoga.  In the opener, a seven furlong maiden claimer, I had a Saratoga 40% Club play with Cousin Andrew.  The Chad Brown runner was dropping in class so he was a qualifier.  Unfortunately he was an obvious choice and 4/5 in the program.  Felt lucky to get 3/5 with the runaway winner.  Was 2nd at 2/5 in the 4th with a Todd Pletcher horse who ran evenly.  Then 2nd AGAIN at 4/5 odds in the featured Shine Again Stakes to my second choice.  But the day became a wonder racing memory when in the 9th, a third level optional allowance event carrying a $100K claiming tag option saw yet another Saratoga 40% Club play with Chad Browns L'Imperator.  This one was a class dropper, like in the opener but was listed at 5/1 in the program.  The crowd foolishly let him get away at better than 6/1 odds as he blew by them all in the stretch and I cashed for over $70 on that one alone to have a nearly double-my-money day to kick off the week, whooooo hoooooo.

Thursday I had three plays from Saratoga and one from Del Mar.  For what it's worth, it seems like I have fewer and fewer plays (and wins) from So Cal in the last week and change.  In the 3rd at Saratoga I didn't have an "angle" but made Mystery Messenger the play based on what I saw and he was the DRF Best of the Day.  2nd at 2/1.  In the fifth Danny Gargan sent out Wartime Hero who was 4/5 in the program but was a Saratoga 40% Club play as Gargan hits big numbers in ALL claiming events below $40K.  The favorite romped impressively wire-to-wire with my triple investment on board.  In the featured fourteen furlong - that's a mile and 3/4 for those of you unable to decipher the numbers - Birdstone Stakes I went with the obvious choice, Lone Rock.  As I noted in the analysis, something would have to go REALLY wrong and in an unforeseen manner for him to to lose.  He tracked the second choice through the opening mile and a quarter, then at the quarter pole the rider shook the reins and it was all, ALL over as I won for fun at 4/5 odds.  Closed the day out when 2nd in a photo at 6/1 in the So Cal race with a Del Mar 40% Club play for trainer Phil D'Amato.....THAT would have been really nice :(

Friday I had Saratoga, Monmouth and Del Mar.  But, with no plays until the 7th at the Spa and the 5:00 pm first post at Monmouth I had nothing until late afternoon.  Today was Hall of Fame Day in Saratoga and notable of the inductees were trainers Mark Casse (who I talked to last winter at GP), the main man Todd Pletcher, and Triple Crown hero American Pharoah.  Because of the ceremony, today's featured event was the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes on the turf for 3yo runners.  And THAT was the first play on the Friday selection sheet.  Public Sector was a generous 4/1 in the program but I thought he stood a MUCH better chance today because when defeated by one of today's rivals last time, he'd had to try and close into glacial splits.  Today looked like a whole better pace flow for him.  Unfortunately not only did apparently a lot of other handicappers see this, but the Fox Sports analysts talked endlessly about what a great set-up he was getting today.  WOW guys, really?  The Klaravich owned colt saved ground all the way around and when the rail opened at the top of the stretch he burst through and held off his main rival safely as that one took the overland route.  Give full credit to jockey Irad Ortiz for this win!

Came right back to take the co-featured Alydar Stakes for older when Art Collector went wire to wire.  He went of a more "fair" 9/5 price, but considering he was the LONE speed, I thought price was too high for his actual chances.  But I was happy to cash for the nearly $30 payoff.  And I closed the day with two wins from four picks at Monmouth.  Late in the evening, about a 10 pm post time, my pick in the Del Mar feature ran 3rd at 7/5 odds.

Whitney Day At Saratoga

During the day on Friday Keith, who was playing along, texted I was having "one of those days," which of course the winning stopped right after he sent that message.  WOW.  But I remarked back that I was hopeful to have a BIG day on Saturday.  Right off the bat I scored with my first pick on the sheet when Union Gables ran home as an easy winner in the Monmouth opener at 8/5.  Then the wheels came off as I went 0-for-7 over the next hour and forty-five minutes.  Ran second three times, third twice and fourth once in the streak before we got to Race 5 at Saratoga.  While I watched the races yesterday afternoon trainer Steve Asmussen (who I met several years ago on my first trip to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans) had tied the all-time wins record for a thoroughbred trainer when his horse won at Ellis Park.  The next one would make him THE winningest trainer of all time.  That would be pretty impressive.  In this fifth race, a MSW for 2yo his Stellar Tap was a Saratoga 40% Club Play as a first time starting 2yo.  Unfortunately, he also had another firster and so you had to make a choice.  While no one could make a case against top national rider Irad Ortiz, for ME the deciding factor between the two was that Ortiz had just 25 mounts for Asmussen over the last two years while go-to rider Ricardo Santana had been given a leg up 986 times over the same time period.  AND he'd been on all of the previous 2yo winners so.  When he was sitting on the board at a chilly 5/1 I hesitated, then told myself "NO, that's why we play these angles."  Right away Santana had him in position and at the top of the stretch he opened up and was so well clear that it enabled NYRA announcer John Imbrialle to shout out that this would be a "Saratoga memory" as the colt cruised home.  

It was pretty cool to watch the trainer and his family's reaction and everyone who congratulated him.  Well done, kudos!  Right back moments later with my second winner at Monmouth at a nice 5/2 price.  Wish I'd gone in for more than the minimum on Jumeriah, but so it goes.  I had decided to play Gulfstream for just the second time since being there for the conclusion of the Championship Meet on Florida Derby Day.  I'd thought about this, randomly during the week when I had run my four month totals and found it "interesting" that I'd made over 600 hundred, yes SIX HUNDRED bets since I was last live at the races at Gulfstream.  Oh the wonders of the Internet :)  Missed on Ron Nicoletti's Best Bet which is rare when Jack and Noah was a dismal fifth at 8/5.  Got back into the winner's circle with my lone winner at Ellis Park - where I had a few picks on their Kentucky Downs Preview Day card - when Shared Sense won the Tri State Stakes.  

It was interesting to me that when the field approached the gate for Saratoga's Lure Stakes and I had a "prime time" bet on Chad Brown's Value Proposition, that the field kept circling around and my jockey, Irad Ortiz was quite animated with the gate crew.  Come to find out the colt had tossed a shoe when warming up.  But instead of fixing it, the connections decided to run WITHOUT the shoe and for purse money only.  I didn't change the bet and I got my $20 back.  He ran third without an excuse, unless the shoe was a problem....who will ever know?  In the next race, more bad luck as Knight's Key broke out of the gate at Monmouth and within the first two jumps was pulled up.  Sigh....oh the highs and lows of this game.  But in the seventh at Saratoga I tripled the bet in the Grade 2 Glen Falls boing a mile and a half on the turf, on Bill Mott's War Like Goddess.  She was four-for-five lifetime, and had improved with each and every start.  The only thing that made me not go deeper on the investment was she was a deep closer.  Sure enough as the field ran through the far turn she was dead last.  Then jockey Julian Leparoux guided her outside into the clear and despite being five or six wide she blew by the field without taking a deep breath and was a runaway winner in a WOW performance.

Missed on the next two stakes picks before going on a five-for-six run to close out the day.  The feature on tap today was the 94th running of the $1 Million Grade 1 Whitney Handicap going nine furlongs.  A small group of five were entered but they were all class as combined they'd won 17 of their 35 starts.  But it was all about Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go for me.  I'd had him when he lost in the Met Mile but afterwards trainer Brad Cox was quoted as saying the horse LOVED two turns and that was the problem.  Hmmmm.  He bounced back in the Grade 3 $300K Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows, but it was a long way from that wire-to-wire romp over inferior foes to today's test.  Yet, as a handicapper - and a guy who'd had him in the Pegasus - he looked like THE lone speed.  And if he got out there and slowed down the fractions he'd be L-O-N-G gone.  He had to hustle to get to the front as the filly Swiss Skydiver was quick early.  And when the internal fractions were posted in a sharp :46.3 for the opening half mile I was a big concerned.  As the field narrowed the margin into the far turn jockey Joel Rosario let him roll and the big horse took off like a rocket.  Widening with every stride he buried the field at a generous even money price as I cashed on the BET of the Weekend!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

Came right back with a win at Monmouth and then came the feature at Gulfstream.  When I taught at Cypress Bay one of my all-time favorite students was Christy Shade.  She'd been a feisty, but funny sophomore and we'd kept in touch through her junior year.  Then she was back with me for two courses as a senior.  After graduation we stayed close and we're still friends, but don't stay in nearly as close contact as I'd like.  But anyway, her Facebook handle has always been Sea Shady.  There's a horse that I've had several times that's come into it's own by the name of Shea D Summer which always reminds me of her.  And honestly, when I saw she was in the entries for the GP feature today, the Azalea Stakes it was one of the reasons I wanted to play locally.  Last time out she'd blown the break then rallied courageously to be a close third.  In her previous she'd run a number that would beat all her rivals today.  Only a clean break was needed today in my opinion.  She was away smoothly and dueled to the far turn then ran away.  I added a photo of Christy, me and her gal-pal / partner in crime and my MOST favorite girl Kimmy to the winning photo.  Double enjoyment cashing this ticket.

Had the final winner of the day when Mr. Who was tons the best in the Monmouth finale.

Sunday brought tons of rain to the Jersey Shore and that changed a lot of the races including several selections I had.  I did a quick run-through of the past performances when I saw all the scratches to look for dirt form but only found one race which was off-the-turf that I liked a runner still in the field on the main track, and that was in the finale and featured Oceanport Stakes.  Prior to that my first pick was in the second which was a starter allowance with the creative conditions that required for all runners to have raced for a $25K tag or lower AND be a non-winners of two lifetime.  So basically it was for runners who'd broken their maiden for $25K or less.  But there was a sneaky class play in She Dazzle who had just missed in her $25K debut then came back to beat $40K runners.  OH.  She had hit the board in three allowance tries and last time out was in a $40K starter where she missed the break.  I thought for sure she'd be the odds-on choice but instead she vied for favoritism and then all the late money went to the "other" favorite.  When she drew clear she paid a big $6.80 and I'd tripled the bet, allowing me to cash for over $50 with the first pick of the day!  I had three picks at Saratoga and cashed on the first one where the Chad Brown / Klaravich Stables entry ran one-two at 4/5 odds.  In the Monmouth tenth it looked wide-open to me, but I went with Brother Chub who was 17-for-36 on the Jersey Shore, had a bullet work AND got Paco Lopez.  His somewhat darkened recent form made me think he might be a bit of a price....was he!  Went off at 9/2 and scored to give me my second win on the Shore that led to collecting over $50!  YOWZA.

Finally time for the featured Oceanport Stakes and it looked like Raased would be the lone speed.  And she was bet down as a short priced favorite.  BUT she was outsprinted to the lead early.  The rider smartly led the price horse go, eased outside to track her and then on the far turn blew by and drew off by more than a dozen lengths to cap a three-win day at Monmouth.

For the week, a whopping 40% winners and a substantial profit.  Good times at the race track!

Whitney Handicap Weekend Highlights

Sidelight stories......In following Saratoga I get to see hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney every day.  She truly is an excellent handicapper and reporter.  So Sunday as she appeared on the screen in the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" I reached out to her while she was on the air, and sure enough, in between stories she responded to my message :)

And one last story from the week.  At the end of the day Saturday Keith reached out to me to ask, didn't I have a summary sheet for Sunday instead of the three individual sheets from Saratoga, Monmouth, and Del Mar.  I responded that I was a one-man operation, and then it occurred to me about my "assistant."  So I wrote back to Keith and said I was hopeful that some day in the not to distant future I'd be adding an assistant to my operation.  What?  One of my best gal-pals from my teaching days at Cypress Bay High was Jennifer Cook.  And we've become even better friends since I retired.  Five years ago I finally got Jen to come out to the races for an afternoon and she so enjoyed it that I "offered her the position" of assistant to the handicapper.  Ever since then she has brought it up numerous times and I have as well.  So I explained this all to Keith and shared her photo and then later she and I went back and forth again on Facebook about it.  I truly WOULD enjoy having her along at the races each day :)