November 4 - 5
In 2020 the Breeders' Cup was scheduled to be at Keeneland. We had tickets, and had set up an Air B&B home to share with our great friends Melissa & Ben, and Keith. Then the pandemic led to no fans being allowed to attend. The Breeders' Cup promised to return to Keeneland and did so this fall. Unfortunately for us - as racing fans, we were in Antarctica! WOW. So I played the races from the bottom of the planet, unreal the wonders of technology. And a big shout-out of thanks to my son Brad for making sure my bets got in with the spotty WiFi, as you can imagine. Here's how the weekend played out......
On Future Stars Friday we were crossing the Drake Passage and the waters were rough.....no, you think you know rough, this was ROUGH. Kim didn't get out of bed all day and when I left the stateroom I was weaving back and forth from one wall to another like everyone else who wasn't knocked out by the rocking and rolling of the boat. But in spite of being in the middle of nowhere at the bottom of the globe I had a pretty good connection and actually watched all the races online. Mixed results for the day. I had six selections on the card and only won with one of them. BUT, TwinSpires ran a VIP $20 Bet Back promotion which I opted in for.
And so I ran third in the opener as the 8/5 favorite. My next bet was in the third, an entry level allowance going six and a half furlongs. Marsalis pressed the pace three-wide to the top of the lane, took the lead and drove home to win for my first score of the weekend with a double investment on him.
Bob Baffert's highly talented 2yo Arabian Lion was the 3/5 choice in the fourth but ran second. Passed two races and ran out of the money in the BC Juvenile Fillies at 6/1 with the Gulfstream shipper. Passed on the Juv Filly Turf then had the prohibitive 2/5 favorite in the BC Juvenile, Bob Baffert's unbeaten Cave Rock who looked to be the shortest price of the weekend at post time. Opened up in the stretch but was run down by Todd Pletcher's talented 2yo Forte - who we will probably see this winter at Gulfstream! And in the finale, the Juvenile Turf Silver Knott burst through on the rail to grab the lead, but was nailed in the tightest of photos - still not sure he lost to be honest - and was second. So if you're counting, that's three seconds and a third - ALL getting my money back!
And the final totals on the day showed I bet six races, "cashed" tickets on five of them and made a profit of a little under ten dollars even though I only actually won a single race.
Saturday we had arrived in Antarctica and during the middle of the racing day Kim and I first went on deck to get our first view of the Lost Continent, and have our picture taken, then later boarded a zodiac and floated through an ice field of magical ice bergs. Just WOW. The Internet was much slower and I never got any live video feed. The only video I was able to see all day was sometimes the stretch run or maybe a replay posted on either Facebook or Twitter. BUT the results for each race were able to be accessed. I'd get an alert on my phone that it was ten minutes to post and then about twenty minutes later an announcement that someone had won the race. So I followed along that way - old school, much like the first few years when I would have to call a 1-800 number for the results. Man we've come a long way! In the opener I took another "Arabian" from the Bob Baffert barn, this one - Arabian Knight - was a $2.3 Million sales purchase making his debut in a 7f MSW sprint. Was just a big leery since the short-priced Baffert colt had run 2nd at short odds yesterday, but this guy blew the doors off the field at 3/5 and I had my first winner on the day.
Missed in the second (with another Baffert runner) and then it was time for the Breeders' Cup Championship races to start. In the BC Filly & Mare Sprint I liked Goodnight Olive who had won five straight by a combined 25 and change lengths. The last, an impressive runaway win in the Grade 1 Ballernia at Saratoga. I also liked that she looked to sit an ideal pressing trip. Exactly as I saw it as she swooped up entering the lane and ran away impressively. Cashed for over $40 on my triple investment!
Ran off the board in the BC Turf Sprint where Golden Pal was shuffling around and unprepared for the start - just deadly for a front runner. Missed again when Cyberknife was second in the BC Dirt Mile (but I "cashed" thanks to the promotion). In the BC Filly & Mare Turf I did not bet on "MY horse" Going To Vegas who I thought was overmatched and probably wouldn't make the lead - which she didn't. I took the European Nashwa who was 4th at 5/2. In the BC Sprint I had my doubts about the sensational Jackie's Warrior. His two previous losses in Breeders' Cup company were worrisome as was his disappointing second last time out. But I thought there was a CHANCE he'd run big. Made a bid at 3/5 but flattened out to finish third (but again, I "cashed" thanks to the promotion). The Breeders' Cup Mile was next and I really liked Modern Games. First, he'd won the BC Juvenile Turf last year, but I'd not cashed on him because he was mistakenly "scratched" at the gate, then allowed to run but for purse money only. I had him in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile and trainer Charlie Appleby was scoring at an insane 50% plus with his Godolphin shippers. Made a sweeping run to the front and scored as my first "prime time" bet of the weekend as I collected nearly $50!
In the Breeders' Cup Distaff trainer Todd Pletcher had two entered, Nest and Malathaat. Nest had been oh so impressive in her races this year, but for me, even though Malathaat had some losses since winning the Kentucky Oaks last year, her wins were more than good enough to win this. I also liked that she was unbeaten here. And as I mentioned in my analysis, you can't explain it but it is almost always true when you see a pattern like I did with her speed figures. Going back over her last seven starts she earned numbers of: 95 - 102 - 92 - 106 - 99 - 105 - 98. Today should be the "big figure day!" Nest made a bid on the turn but flattened out as Malathaat came calling for the lead with a long shot and her long time nemesis Clairiere rallied up the rail. PHOTO FINISH! Oh my sooooo close, but Malathaat got the bob by a whisker and with the 5/2 post time odds I cashed for nearly $40.
Next up was the Breeders' Cup Turf. An angle I learned many years ago that has led to multiple nice payoffs came from local handicapper Jim Mazur. And that is in the Turf, go with the "other" European. Not the favorite but one that looks good enough to win at a fair price. Converting 'Rebel's last three efforts - all Group 1 wins in Europe - from TimeForm speed figures to Beyer numbers, those would beat 143 of the combined 144 figures on the page. Yet somehow he left the gate at 5/1 and came flying down the outside to win edging away late. The $13.20 payoff led to a collection of nearly $70 on my third straight win.
Now it was time for the BIG ONE......the Breeders' Cup Classic. The once-in-a-generation Flightline has been just in another world in comparison to some REALLY good runners. He was unbeaten and looked prime to fire. IF he ran back to any of his previous races, especially his 19+ length romp in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time out (with an unworldly 126 Beyer) he would be a runaway winner. But like all top notch runners, the question was - will he do it again? I was betting (literally) YES and invested heavily to make him the BET of the Weekend . Pressed his most likely win rival, the exceptionally talented Life Is Good to the top of the stretch then ran by effortlessly. Drew off as he pleased again without really being asked. Considering how good he is, the $2.88 payout was a generous one. And with my big wager I cashed for nearly $75.
Lost the finale, but for the day I had twelve bets, cashed tickets on eight of them (six outright winners) and collected a profit of over $120. So for the weekend I made eighteen wagers and cashed on an astounding thirteen of them. My win percentage was my "usual" big 38% and my profit was over $135. A great Breeders' Cup weekend - all the while sailing through Antarctica.
Breeders' Cup 2022 Highlights
Social Media While In Antarctica
Shortly before leaving for Antarctica I reached out to Lauren Pastrana as she anchored the evening news (note the tie stamp of 5:50) about leaving for Antarctica. While on the air (time stamp 6:04) she replied back AND asked if we were able to watch her on air from Antarctica to send a photo.
I also reached out to weekend anchor Karli Barnett and wondered if I'd be her first viewer to tune in from Antarctica. She "loved" the message.
Right before we left Lauren posted that there was a Lauren & Mike on a Denver CBS and wondered if anyone would notice if they switched. I replied that I would notice and asked her not to go. She immediately liked that reply :)
While we were gone I heard several times from Kathryn. When we toyed with the idea of buying a home in the Orlando area she and her then-husband Chris had shown us several places. We hooked up as Facebook friends. She followed our trip and commented several times.
While we were exploring Antarctica I was surprised that mostly I had a strong Internet signal and was able to upload my photos each day. Getting streaming video was another matter. I frequently could watch short video "reels" on Facebook & Twitter, but watching more than a few seconds of live video was difficult. Still, I was determined to watch Lauren on the news - as she'd asked and get a photo for her, as she'd asked. On November 9th while in Portal Point (the day of the Continental Landing) I was able to send her a photo of a screen shot I'd taken the previous evening while she was on air. She replied back in spite of it being early in the morning her appreciation :)
And I got to log into Karli Barnett's weekend chat from Antarctica. Because it was a live stream I was only able to catch bits & pieces of her chatting, but I was able to send my comments. I could tell she was reacting but it was until the next day when I could watch the video replay online that I got to hear her wonder and awe with the pics I'd been sending her :) I added her comments as part of my highlight video!
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