Breeders' Cup Weekend

 November 3 - 4:  Breeders' Cup 2023

I'm In Ohio!

On Monday prior to the big Breeders' Cup weekend I flew into Ohio to visit my family (while Kim flew to Pennsylvania to visit hers).  I was able to complete the handicapping by the end of the day Wednesday so that on Thursday when I drove to Cincinnati to see our great friends Mary Pat and Tom I was finished with my "work."  Had a great day as we went to a winery, sat out on their deck before dinner and spent the evening together.  Got up the next morning around 7am, had a cup of coffee together and then headed back to Columbus.  Arrived at my Mom's house about 10 am, in plenty of time for the start of the racing from Santa Anita.

Future Stars Friday

Especially because I was visiting my Mom I decided that for the Breeders' Cup weekend I'd only play the races from Santa Anita.  Today I had selections on a card that featured eight two-year-old races including all five Breeders' Cup events.  I had the short priced favorite in the 2nd, the Golden State Juvenile Fillies and was a little wary when the trainer of the second choice was interviewed minutes before the race and he was extremely confident.  He won and I was a fading third.  Then in the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes down the unique hillside turf course I had the lead in mid-stretch but was caught late to finish second.  Initially I was "ok" with both results because I had opted in on a promotion to get your money back if you ran 2nd or 3rd, but then later saw it was ONLY for the Breeders' Cup events.  Finally in the first BC event, the Juvenile Turf Sprint I had the winner.  Big Evs was a Euro import who reportedly was exceptionally quick.  I knew he had to overcome running the "wrong way" and around a turn for the first time, but I still thought he looked best.  He pressed the 6/1 front runner into the lane and edged clear in the final furlong to get me the win at a very fair $8.40 price.

In the Juvenile Fillies nearly everyone thought lightly raced Tamara, the 4/5 favorite was the second coming of her momma Beholder.  She looked sharp turning for home.  But in her 2-turn debut she weakened to be a disappointing 7th.  In the Juvenile Fillies Turf I was third and in the Juvenile - which I thought was completely wide open, only to see a Todd Pletcher - John Velazquez colt runaway by a pole at double digit odds (what was I thinking!) and I was 2nd with my pick.  BUT with the promotion I got my money back on both of those.  In the finale, an allowance sprint my pick, a Bob Baffert colt was easily best.  Closed out the day with two wins but "cashed" on four of the seven with a minimal loss.

Championship Saturday

The BIG DAY kicked off in grand style for me.  The opener was what used to be the BC Marathon and there's just no figuring a thirteen furlong dirt race, so I passed.  The second was the Grade 2 Twilight Derby for 3yo on the turf.  I thought IF the favorite ran his "best" he'd win easily - and I'd won with him earlier in the year - but I was skeptical he'd do that.  I went with a lightly raced runner making his stakes debut.  His last two starts earned Beyers of 88 and 90 which were both better than anything on the page and if he continued to improve he'd be very dangerous.  The rider gave him a perfect ride....sat mid-pack while saving all the ground to the turn.  Moved up between runners approaching the top of the lane....found a seam to get clear and came flying on the outside.  Even though the final margin was narrow I was never in doubt once they reached the furlong pole.  And the pest part....he went off at 7/1 allowing me to start the day by cashing a $40 plus ticket!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

The "feel good" story of thoroughbred racing all year, dating back to last year's Breeders' Cup has been Cody's Wish.  Named for a teenager with a debilitating disease he'd won the BC Dirt Mile last year and his only loss came when stretched out to nine furlongs at Saratoga in the Gr 1 Whitney (3rd).  I thought he'd prove best today but was concerned with his come from behind style on the speed-favoring So Cal track.  There was lots of speed, I thought and turning for home he was rallying strongly.  Looked like he'd go right on by but the Bob Baffert Preakness winner, National Treasure wasn't done.  Battled to the wire, PHOTO FINISH.  I thought we were the winner but then there was an INQUIRY for bumping in the final furlong.  Disallowed and I'm the winner! 

I was second at a nice 4/1 price in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf with a European but got my third win of the day in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  Goodnight Olive was the defending champion and I thought you could make excuses for the two losses she'd suffered during this year's campaign.  Especially with the speedy rival Echo Zulu out with an injury she looked to have a clear path to the winner's circle.  But like Cody's Wish the off-the-pace style was a concern.  She sat a little closer than usual and blew by into the lane and ran away as easily best.

The most satisfying race of the day turned out to come with my Best Bet of the Day in the Distaff.  Idiomatic had the best numbers and had three wins in a row.  Her last two had seen her dominate in front running fashion, but with relatively soft fractions.  ALL - and I mean A-L-L - the "experts" on the NBC telecast commented that she'd caught up in a speed duel and would "never win" today.  As the horses came on the track I remarked to my Mom, sister and niece who were watching with me that I was betting they were all wrong.  And I did so because her three back win came from off the pace.  Now granted she'd broken poorly and had been FORCED to rally, but to me that showed she did not have to have the lead.  Pressed the other front runner, got to the front through swift fractions and here came the closers.  But through the final furlong she would not let anyone pass her and I WON!

I was off the board in the final five races but the Seal Team win had virtually guaranteed a winning day and a winning weekend.  Here's how the numbers added up:

18 / 6 -3 - 2      33% WINS     PROFIT:  $37.00

With the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup World Championships I closed out the "Fall Championship Racing Season" and ran all my numbers.  It was a good fall with the abbreviated schedule I followed.  We're now just a few weeks away from Opening Day of the Gulfstream Championship Meet so I'll be recharging and gearing up for the daily handicapping schedule of the "home-town" meet!

116 / 43 - 24 - 13

WIN:  37.1%     ITM:  69.0%
Avg Pay:  $5.42     ROI:  $2.01

Social Media This Week.......

The first and one of the coolest things about the week came when my long-awaited hosting of an episode of Viking TV aired on the Monday following the Breeders' Cup.  The build up led to a lot of my social media pals reacting to the exciting event, including a series of emails from "my Viking TV girl" Ciara.

Maybe it's just me, but gal-pal and CBS-Miami anchor Lauren Pastrana and I seem to have "a thing" that she almost "expects" me to reach out several times a week.  And unlike what's gone on in the past, I almost always get not only a reaction but often a comment.  This happened multiple times this week.

I thought it was so very sweet of my "other" gal-pal, news anchor Karli Barnett to reply to a post I'd sent her and Lauren separately.  I'd posted about the upcoming episode on Viking TV and then sent it just to the two of them.  Karli took the time to remark I'd be a good host.  Then on her weekly FB chat I thanked her for that and again she complimented me :)

My new friend Petra and I chatted a couple times and the most recent was more gratifying because she reached out to me first as she returned from a two week holiday to work on the Nile River cruise ships for Viking.

Kimmy, my most favorite former student replied to my text sharing the big TV episode as did another of my former students, former news anchor Erica.

Our "adopted daughter" Jillian also messaged me about how cool this was and she was one of the first to react to the episode.  Very appreciative :)

Amber

Finally got a reaction from the very first student I mentored in the WISE program, Amber on Halloween :)

Pre-BC Weekend

 October 28-29:  Empire Showcase Weekend

It was an "interesting" weekend of racing as I didn't watch a single race live despite being home for the weekend.  On Saturday my picks from closing day at Keeneland and Belmont at the Big A went off as I was at the birthday party for our grandson Anthony and when we were at the early puck drop from the Florida Panthers vs. Seattle Kracken game.  Then on Saturday as the races went off from opening day at Churchill and for the Empire Showcase races in New York, Kim and I were watching the Miami Dolphins play on TV.  I leave Monday for a week and change visit to Ohio where I'll be during the big Breeders' Cup World Championships!  Here's how the weekend played out..... despite there being several stakes races on my sheet from both Keeneland and Belmont (at Aqueduct) I was only able to win three races, none of which were in stakes events.

On Sunday I had five picks from Churchill including two stakes events and I had EIGHT selections at Belmont where it was "Empire Showcase Day" - all in stakes events.  Didn't cash a ticket in Louisville and only three in New York.  I won't use it as an excuse BUT the track was sloppy at both places and that MAY have impacted my results.....though I did hit the board with ELEVEN of the thirteen races I bet on!

Social Media this week.....

The "most fun" I had this week online was when the Panthers game Thursday was set for a 7:45 pm faceoff.  So I messaged gal-pal Lauren Pastrana - as you can see, at 5:11 pm just after she went on the air - that with the late puck drop I could watch her on the news and go to the game.  She wrote back, while on the air less than ten minutes later that it seemed like a "perfect" plan - news, snack, game, and news.  So when we got home, a little before the 11 pm news I messaged her back that the plan had "worked" to perfection.....and she reacted to that.  Also exchanged two other messages with her this week.  :)

This week Kim and I received our luggage tags and initial information for our Disney Christmas cruise.  Our "adopted daughter" Jillian commented how jealous she was and I told her I would take her if she could fit in the suitcase....to which she replied she'd begin stretching to make that happen.  If only :)

My Slovakian gal-pal Petra and I had a long "conversation" of about 15-20 minutes on FB messenger this week.  Always fun to keep up with her.

Hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney celebrated her birthday this week and so I reached out to her....and got a heartfelt thank you minutes later :)

Sunday morning I noticed gal-pal Teri was NOT on the anchor desk for the CBS Miami news.  Then later in the day she posted she had been in the hospital.  I happened to catch that post just two minutes after she put it on FB.  I immediately wrote to her and she wrote back her appreciation moments later.

Opening Night - FSS Stakes Day

 Week of October 21

Thursday night was Opening Night for our Florida Panthers and the night could not have been more exciting as Kim and I joined nearly 20,000 fans in the sold out arena to watch our 'Cats take down the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1.  Note that the final goal came with 0:01 second left in the game so the intensity was out of control until the final horn sounded.  As we left the arena we both remarked how playoff-like the atmosphere had been tonight.  Cool to be back into hockey!

I had initially looked at the stakes calendar for Saturday and there really wasn't anything big going on and I didn't know any of the horses by name.  Seemed like a pretty nondescript weekend of racing so I thought I'd just enjoy college football and going to the hockey game Saturday night.  But by Friday morning I had really run out of things to keep me occupied, so I looked again.  I noted that it was a "big day" at Gulfstream with two Florida Sire Stakes on the card and a third stakes as well.  I thought to myself that during the Championship Season from December through the end of March I play many days where I've handicapped a card of "just races" and have three or four bets....and that's entertaining enough for me.  So I downloaded the Gulfstream card and began handicapping.  But the time I was through with the eleven races I'd found EIGHT runners I was interested in enough to bet.  One scratched before racing began so I had seven races to play.  I passed both the first two races and in the third, a MSW for two-year-olds, the question was simply were you willing to take the short price on Kozem who was listed at even money in the program.  As I noted in the analysis - it's not just about how your horse has run/will run but it's also about who they are running against.  It was a cheap $12.5K maiden claimer with a par value of only 45 on the Beyer scale.  And Kozem had posted figures of 44-46-46-and 43.  MORE than good enough to win.  But she'd missed four times.  Hmmmm.  Then you looked down the page - the "BEST" Beyers of her rivals were 13, 0, 0, 29, and 23.  And the two first time starters came from barns that were a combined 1-for-9 with those.  One of them COULD surprise but it seemed unlikely.  Kozem went right to the front, held a narrow advantage through the opening quarter and when let loose lengthened the margin with each and every stride scoring by a geared down nearly double digit distance.

The fourth was an all-weather route under starter-optional claiming conditions carrying a $30K option.  I thought there were several different ways to go, but I liked the chances with a bit of a price on the lightly raced Bedtime Story.  Only been out five times and was a perfect 4-for-4 on the synthetic here.  AND she had wins over an entry level group with a $75K optional tag and against older, $50K conditional runners.  Listed at 6/1 I thought it was fair value.  Left the gate at nearly 3/1 and dueled to the far turn between runners.  Cleared off in the late and held off the late runners as the wire came just in time.

The fifth was the race where my pick scratched and in the sixth I went with Mish who was a multiple graded stakes placed runner.  The nearly white runner had two wins locally that both earned big figures and six of his twelve running lines were in stakes races.  He clearly was the "best and fastest horse."  But as the adage goes, "pace makes the race" and Mish appeared to be a "need to lead" front runner in a field with several of those.  I truly did NOT believe he'd be able to clear off and wire the field so my bet was he was simply the best horse and if he had to press/stalk a longshot, he'd be able to do so.  I nailed it.  Pressed the pace into the far turn, took command and drew off willingly..... THREE FOR THREE!

The seventh was an obvious "this or that" race between the top two rivals.  I went against the morning line and post time favorite off the layoff.  He won, I faded to fifth.  The eighth was the first of three consecutive stakes races, the Florida Sire Stakes Susan's Girl Stakes.  R Harper Rose was the morning line favorite and both the on-air handicappers made her a single in their Pick-6 sequence.  The "issue" was, as it always is in these FSS events, getting the added ground.  CLEARLY 'Rose is one fast filly who had romped in her debut as the favorite and then was the easiest of winners in a two-lifetime allowance.  BUT both of those were at 5 1/2 furlongs and today's stakes event was at seven panels.  Still she looked awfully tough and she was being pounded in the WIN pool and all the multi-race pools so I upped the bet to a triple investment.  Pressed the leader through the opening quarter then took over willingly.  Edged to a daylight lead turning for home and widened the margin through the final sixteenth.  The final time, especially the "come home fraction" wasn't all that dazzling so it will be interesting to see where she lands this winter when the out of town good fillies show up.

The ninth, the Gil Campbell Memorial was my "Best Bet" even though Dean Delivers had never won at the one-turn mile.  But of the combined 103 running lines on the page his LAST FIVE Beyers beat 100 of them.  AND he was dropping out of a third in a Saratoga Grade 1 to this listed event.  Seemed obvious and he was another single on the one GP analyst's ticket.  Pressed the pace into the turn and faded through the lane.  Go figure.....that's why they run the races!  In my final bet, the second of the two FSS stakes, this one the Affirmed for 2yo colts, Bentornato looked even more formidable than did R Harper Rose.  His two Beyers were a pole faster than anyone else had earned and were "paired" which would often indicate a move forward.  Adding to the confidence level, the DRF's Mike Welsch is a "price play" kind of handicapper and he picked Bentornato saying he seems to be "the real deal."  I'm not sure I've ever heard him "say" that.  Was just a head off the leader from his outside post through the opening half mile.  Took over and finished strongly - his time translated into almost ten lengths faster than the winning race by R Harper Rose in the filly race.

And so for the day I finished a big time 70% and change with five wins from seven picks and a flat bet profit - made even more "impressive" by the fact that my "Best Bet" had lost!  I guess it was a pretty good idea to go ahead and play Gulfstream today :)

FSS Sire Stakes Day Highlights

Social Media this week......

Clearly the highlight of my interactions with my "friends" came on Monday with my gal-pal Lauren Pastrana of CBS-Miami.  We've had a "thing" about morning coffee and she's told me before that she enjoys her hot morning coffee, on her porch, in a hoodie.  So last week when the forecast was for chilly temps I reached out to her and she responded she was looking forward to this weather change.  So when it WAS very chilly I sat on the porch with MY hoodie on I took a pic and sent it her.  She replied back to me.....cool (to me) that we can "chat" about things other than what's on the news.  We also had interactions about the start of the Panthers season and opening night.

I have probably three girls who would rate as "all time favorite" former students, one of them I do not hear from often is Tatiana.  And with the weather turn I reached out to her and we had a "conversation."  I do wish she were local so we could hang out on occasion.  

Last week I wondered, and entered this in my journal, if my friendship with Osiris gal-pal Petra might have run it's course.  And just when I was thinking that might be the case she reached out to me.  And I was so happy for her that she was starting her vacation.

The second of the two "favorites" is Mandy.  And she does get a bonus point because she and I have been close for much longer than any other former students.  She reached out to me - which in and out of itself was very cool - to show me her Disney holiday scrubs.  And we had, as we frequently do, a long "conversation" via text.

Gal-pal Karli and I also had interactions and like with the top one with Lauren Pastrana, the fact that Karli took the time to respond to me personally meant a lot.

And finally, heard from weekend anchor Teri Hornstein as well.