Week of October 21
Thursday night was Opening Night for our Florida Panthers and the night could not have been more exciting as Kim and I joined nearly 20,000 fans in the sold out arena to watch our 'Cats take down the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. Note that the final goal came with 0:01 second left in the game so the intensity was out of control until the final horn sounded. As we left the arena we both remarked how playoff-like the atmosphere had been tonight. Cool to be back into hockey!
I had initially looked at the stakes calendar for Saturday and there really wasn't anything big going on and I didn't know any of the horses by name. Seemed like a pretty nondescript weekend of racing so I thought I'd just enjoy college football and going to the hockey game Saturday night. But by Friday morning I had really run out of things to keep me occupied, so I looked again. I noted that it was a "big day" at Gulfstream with two Florida Sire Stakes on the card and a third stakes as well. I thought to myself that during the Championship Season from December through the end of March I play many days where I've handicapped a card of "just races" and have three or four bets....and that's entertaining enough for me. So I downloaded the Gulfstream card and began handicapping. But the time I was through with the eleven races I'd found EIGHT runners I was interested in enough to bet. One scratched before racing began so I had seven races to play. I passed both the first two races and in the third, a MSW for two-year-olds, the question was simply were you willing to take the short price on Kozem who was listed at even money in the program. As I noted in the analysis - it's not just about how your horse has run/will run but it's also about who they are running against. It was a cheap $12.5K maiden claimer with a par value of only 45 on the Beyer scale. And Kozem had posted figures of 44-46-46-and 43. MORE than good enough to win. But she'd missed four times. Hmmmm. Then you looked down the page - the "BEST" Beyers of her rivals were 13, 0, 0, 29, and 23. And the two first time starters came from barns that were a combined 1-for-9 with those. One of them COULD surprise but it seemed unlikely. Kozem went right to the front, held a narrow advantage through the opening quarter and when let loose lengthened the margin with each and every stride scoring by a geared down nearly double digit distance.
The fourth was an all-weather route under starter-optional claiming conditions carrying a $30K option. I thought there were several different ways to go, but I liked the chances with a bit of a price on the lightly raced Bedtime Story. Only been out five times and was a perfect 4-for-4 on the synthetic here. AND she had wins over an entry level group with a $75K optional tag and against older, $50K conditional runners. Listed at 6/1 I thought it was fair value. Left the gate at nearly 3/1 and dueled to the far turn between runners. Cleared off in the late and held off the late runners as the wire came just in time.
The fifth was the race where my pick scratched and in the sixth I went with Mish who was a multiple graded stakes placed runner. The nearly white runner had two wins locally that both earned big figures and six of his twelve running lines were in stakes races. He clearly was the "best and fastest horse." But as the adage goes, "pace makes the race" and Mish appeared to be a "need to lead" front runner in a field with several of those. I truly did NOT believe he'd be able to clear off and wire the field so my bet was he was simply the best horse and if he had to press/stalk a longshot, he'd be able to do so. I nailed it. Pressed the pace into the far turn, took command and drew off willingly..... THREE FOR THREE!
The seventh was an obvious "this or that" race between the top two rivals. I went against the morning line and post time favorite off the layoff. He won, I faded to fifth. The eighth was the first of three consecutive stakes races, the Florida Sire Stakes Susan's Girl Stakes. R Harper Rose was the morning line favorite and both the on-air handicappers made her a single in their Pick-6 sequence. The "issue" was, as it always is in these FSS events, getting the added ground. CLEARLY 'Rose is one fast filly who had romped in her debut as the favorite and then was the easiest of winners in a two-lifetime allowance. BUT both of those were at 5 1/2 furlongs and today's stakes event was at seven panels. Still she looked awfully tough and she was being pounded in the WIN pool and all the multi-race pools so I upped the bet to a triple investment. Pressed the leader through the opening quarter then took over willingly. Edged to a daylight lead turning for home and widened the margin through the final sixteenth. The final time, especially the "come home fraction" wasn't all that dazzling so it will be interesting to see where she lands this winter when the out of town good fillies show up.
The ninth, the Gil Campbell Memorial was my "Best Bet" even though Dean Delivers had never won at the one-turn mile. But of the combined 103 running lines on the page his LAST FIVE Beyers beat 100 of them. AND he was dropping out of a third in a Saratoga Grade 1 to this listed event. Seemed obvious and he was another single on the one GP analyst's ticket. Pressed the pace into the turn and faded through the lane. Go figure.....that's why they run the races! In my final bet, the second of the two FSS stakes, this one the Affirmed for 2yo colts, Bentornato looked even more formidable than did R Harper Rose. His two Beyers were a pole faster than anyone else had earned and were "paired" which would often indicate a move forward. Adding to the confidence level, the DRF's Mike Welsch is a "price play" kind of handicapper and he picked Bentornato saying he seems to be "the real deal." I'm not sure I've ever heard him "say" that. Was just a head off the leader from his outside post through the opening half mile. Took over and finished strongly - his time translated into almost ten lengths faster than the winning race by R Harper Rose in the filly race.
And so for the day I finished a big time 70% and change with five wins from seven picks and a flat bet profit - made even more "impressive" by the fact that my "Best Bet" had lost! I guess it was a pretty good idea to go ahead and play Gulfstream today :)
Social Media this week......
Clearly the highlight of my interactions with my "friends" came on Monday with my gal-pal Lauren Pastrana of CBS-Miami. We've had a "thing" about morning coffee and she's told me before that she enjoys her hot morning coffee, on her porch, in a hoodie. So last week when the forecast was for chilly temps I reached out to her and she responded she was looking forward to this weather change. So when it WAS very chilly I sat on the porch with MY hoodie on I took a pic and sent it her. She replied back to me.....cool (to me) that we can "chat" about things other than what's on the news. We also had interactions about the start of the Panthers season and opening night.
I have probably three girls who would rate as "all time favorite" former students, one of them I do not hear from often is Tatiana. And with the weather turn I reached out to her and we had a "conversation." I do wish she were local so we could hang out on occasion.
Last week I wondered, and entered this in my journal, if my friendship with Osiris gal-pal Petra might have run it's course. And just when I was thinking that might be the case she reached out to me. And I was so happy for her that she was starting her vacation.
The second of the two "favorites" is Mandy. And she does get a bonus point because she and I have been close for much longer than any other former students. She reached out to me - which in and out of itself was very cool - to show me her Disney holiday scrubs. And we had, as we frequently do, a long "conversation" via text.
Gal-pal Karli and I also had interactions and like with the top one with Lauren Pastrana, the fact that Karli took the time to respond to me personally meant a lot.
And finally, heard from weekend anchor Teri Hornstein as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment