The Kentucky Derby is fast approaching and this Friday was closing day at the Spring Meet at Keeneland. When I saw that Bill Mott's War Like Goddess was entered in the Friday feature I knew I had to play this final day of racing in Lexington. For the day, I had six selections with two "big ones," including the featured event. I won both of those and finished ahead for the day, which got me off to a good start to the weekend. In Keeneland's fifth, a nine furlong dirt allowance the likely winner was the very talented We The People who was a graded stakes winner in 2022 and making his return to the races for 2023. Even though trainer Todd Pletcher obviously has bigger targets ahead, layoff runners for this Hall of Fame barn nearly always fire and 'People was no exception. Right to the front, toyed with the field and won for fun.
The closing day featured stakes was the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes going a mile and a half on the turf. War Like Goddess was trying to do something no horse had done in nearly 30 years.....repeating in a stakes race for the third time at Keeneland. She'd won this race in 2021 and 2022 and I thought she looked as good or better today. Of the combined 88 lifetime races run by the rivals trying to beat her today, NONE of those races had earned a triple digit Beyer. 'Goddess had earned four, including in her last two starts. At this mile and a half trip, War Like Goddess had compiled a 6/5-0-1 resume with the lone blemish coming against the best turf males in the world last fall in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf. She had proven to be adaptable to any pace scenario and had won multiple times off the bench. With a small field and only one real front runner jockey Joel Rosario kept her within striking range to the far turn. Swept up and by to the front. The front runner had gone at a moderate pace and was able to hold on to be second and had fought courageously enough to make the stretch run "interesting," but never in doubt. That the crowd let her go off at 1-2 odds in a short field was giving money away I thought as I cashed on the BET of the Weekend for $75.
The day got even better when that evening Kim, Jeff and I all headed to the arena to see our Panthers try to keep their playoff hopes alive against the mighty, #1 seeded Boston Bruins. On Wednesday night, in Boston down 3 games to 1 we'd battled them to a regulation standoff and then won in overtime. Tonight we carried a 3-2 lead into the third but gave up two goals....tied it...gave up a short handed goal, but got it right back on the same power play 30 seconds later....then got the game winner with four minutes to go. Our goalie made an OMG heroic save with less than 30 seconds left and one of our best players cleared the puck to the boards where it ricocheted down the ice and into the empty net for an astounding 7-5 win in front of the very loudest and electric crowd we've ever seen there. What a way to top off the day!
Saturday: Opening Night at Churchill Downs
Last weekend the multi-stakes Laurel card had been cancelled but the races were re-drawn with mostly the same fields, so I re-handicapped that card to play today. I also handicapped Oaklawn, Aqueduct, and then because first post in Louisville was at 6pm I played the later cards out west. It was "Gold Rush" weekend at Golden Gate Fields in San Francisco and there were two stakes races at Santa Anita. I'd finished the hours of handicapping and had more than 30 selections on my sheet for Saturday when I saw online Friday that Laurel had announced they were off the turf, so that reduced my number of plays and changed a few picks. The first race I had an investment on was at 1 pm and I started the day off with a third, a fifth and back-to-back 2nd place finishes. Having this similar start last Saturday provided me with even more confidence that I was nearly certain I would "get my share" of winners by the end of the day. Sure enough, I began the big winning day with one of the two best bets of the racing on this Saturday. The 4th at Laurel was the nine furlong Native Dancer Stakes and by nearly any angle you approached the race, other than price, Nimitz Class was a standout. He was facing five rivals today, and he'd recently beat four of them. In addition, of the sixty running lines showing on the page for these rivals, one and one only would be good enough to beat the WORST of his last three figures. He also had shown he could be on the lead, pressing the lead or stalking so the pace flow was of no concern. I will admit that I was just a smidge concerned when the rider elected to dual with a longshot through the clubhouse turn, down the backstretch and into the far turn. But he eased to the front without really being asked and he was comfortably in front despite the deep closers making up some ground belatedly.
The fifth at Laurel was the Henry Clark, originally scheduled for the grass. Now instead of a two turn turf race, it was a one-turn dirt race. I narrowed the runners to two that I thought had a good chance and I preferred Classier. But I was only going to play if the wagering supported my pick. When the wagering opened the two I'd been considering were the top two choices in the early WIN wagering, but my top choice was the second choice. That surprised me honestly so I checked the multi-race payoffs and found that I seemed destined to be the favorite. Sure enough by post time Classier was odds-on and the other horse was a big price. He allowed a longshot to take control early but shortly after they'd gone the opening quarter of a mile he'd had enough of that one. Easily went by, opened up and was the easiest kind of winner. WHOOO HOOO - two stakes wins.
I missed at Oaklawn before getting what turned out to be the lone win in New York. I'd originally had five picks from Aqueduct but they were off the turf and my best of the day there scratched out due to the off-going. That left me with only three bets. I tripled the bet on Angelique in this, the fourth race on the card. This was a MSW sprint and it was appealing that Todd Pletcher's debut runner was listed as the morning line chalk. Three of her last four works at Pletcher's So Fla Palm Beach Downs base had been bullet moves and the DRF's Mike Beer, who next to never picks the favorite, tabbed her his top choice. She tracked the leader into the lane, looked ready to roll by for the win and took over. But in the final 200 yards she was all out to hang on. At first glance both live and in slow-motion I thought I'd lost the head bob. But the up-close, on-the-wire view showed that inches before and inches after I was not the winner, but at the exact moment that the line came up, I was the narrowest of winners. WHEW that was close, but I will gladly cash my ticket for nearly $25.
My pick at Oaklawn stopped like she was shot on the turn so I quickly turned to the seventh at Laurel which was not a stakes event. This was an entry level allowance for 3yo going seven furlongs and the question was, how good was Brittany Russell's Goodgirl Badhabits? She'd debuted as no secret when blowing the doors off the competition at even money in her debut. But that was at five and a half furlongs. Her Beyer was faster than anything on the page and she was taking a lot of money. She was taking so much money that I upped the bet from the original double investment to a "prime time" play. Right to the front and she was clear by two or more within the first five jumps. The margin widened the farther they went as she put on a dazzling display of speed. Stakes action is almost certainly next in her future.
When I noted that it was "Gold Rush" weekend at Golden Gate Fields in San Francisco I was anxious to play here. To the best of my knowledge I'd only played her once last year, and it was on this card and I had done relatively well. So up next was a starter allowance from here going six furlongs. The lightly raced and unbeaten filly She's Resilient was hard to look past in this $50K starter. She'd won at first asking over the Tapeta track here then shipped to the "big track," at Santa Anita and won again. Her two Beyers were the best on the page and So Cal top rider Umberto Rispoli had the call. She burst out of the gate and was quickly clear by daylight. The late runners made a move into the lane and Rispoli asked her for another gear and she immediately re-broke and drew off impressively.
Less than ten minutes later the 3yo fillies were walking into the gate at Santa Anita for the nine furlong, Grade 3 Providencia Stakes. It quickly was apparent to my thinking that the race boiled down to the top two favorites. I went with Paris Secret despite the fact that the logical, short-priced favorite Ancient Peace looked to be loose on the lead. But for my money - and I only went in for the minimum - I thought that since both had never been beyond a mile that the former would have a much better chance to get the additional full furlong. The first thing that helped my cause was that 'Peace was NOT loose on an easy lead. But as they hit the far turn it was clear to me that regardless of the pace, 'Paris was loving the additional ground. She swept up, blew by and was long gone at a nice 3/1 price. I was wishing I'd bet more, but still, I was content to collect over $20 on the minimum bet.
The race had hardly been official and prices posted before they were headed into the gate at Oaklawn for the eighth, and allowance sprint. On the entire Arkansas card I'd only found four races of interest to me. And as it turned out, though this was the only winner of the four, I profited on the day here! Even though it was an entry level allowance, the conditions read, ".....for 3yo and up who've never won $23K other than maiden, claiming or starter...." Well, I've learned over the years that when Chicago-based trainer Larry Rivelli ships somewhere - even to high class Saratoga - you need to look carefully. Here his entry, Tape to Tape had ALREADY won an allowance event, but at Hawthorne the purse structure was such that it did NOT meet the conditions of this race, so he was still eligible. Add in that the top rider of the meet took the call and I liked his chances. Right to the front and never looked back. But the best news, he left the gate at 7/2 odds. I was particularly gratified because on the "America's Day at the Races" analysts all agreed that the 4/5 favorite in here was a "confident single" in the multi-race wagers. When they said that I was like, "Ummm, think you're wrong here!" For my convictions, with a double investment, I cashed for almost $50! WHOOOOO HOOOOO - go me, go me.
It was now about 5:20 pm and we were less than 45 minutes from the opener in Louisville. And I'd just gone on a 7-for-9 streak over the nearly three and a half hours of watching races. So I was "ok" to watch as the next FIVE runners failed to score. And of those, only one hit the board - YIKES. The sixth at Golden Gate was the race that got me back to the winner's circle - the California Oaks for 3yo fillies going a mile and a synthetic over the synthetic main track. It looked to me like a "pace makes the race" kind of affair, much like the earlier Santa Anita stakes, but I thought there was a good chance that the class of So Cal shipper Lily Poo would tell. She tracked the loose-on-the-lead front runner to the top of the lane, moved willingly to engage her then edged clear through the stretch to provide me with my EIGHTH win of the day and first stakes at Golden Gate.
I'd passed the Churchill opener as the sun was setting and ran 6th as the 8/5 favorite in Race 2. In the third race it had next to nothing to do with the horse and everything to do with the connections. Over the last several Churchill meets, jockey Tyler Gaffalione had been the leading rider. And trainer Dale Romans is "known" - by those who follow such things closely - for NOT winning during the winter in So Fla, but when back home in his native Louisville, he's much more effective. And so these two paired up on Secret Pocket in a cheap $10K maiden event. It helped my confidence level that the likely favorite and DRF Best had (a) never been on dirt, (b) went from MSW to $30K MC to $15K MC and never showed improvement, and (c) had been claimed from a 26% winning barn to run tonight for a barn that was ONE-for-seventeen on the year. Ouch. Stalked the pace from fourth on the turn while in the clear, was passed on the outside nearing the top of the lane, but split rivals and accelerated to the front in the final 16th to give me my first winner under the Twin Spires.
Missed at Santa Anita when fifth as the prohibitive 1-2 choice, wow, before it was time for the Camilla Urso Stakes at Golden Gate Fields - a five furlong turf dash. The on-air analysts agreed that Alice Marble was the "best horse" in the field, but the question was, could she be close enough without falling too far out of it to be able to show her late run in time. I thought so and made her my Golden Gate BEST Bet of the evening. While often "pace makes the race" is the key, in my mind the fact that she'd run seven races - from eight starts - since January 2022 - that would take a lifetime best number from any of her rivals to beat her. AND she had a best of 75 bullet work for today. I was concerned that jockey Umberto Rispoli sat next to last turning for home, but got in the clear and just exploded to fly home and be up JUST IN TIME. She'd been 4/5 entering the gate but late money went elsewhere allowing her price to float up to 6/5 which meant I cashed for an additional ten bucks. WHOOO HOOO.
We were no sooner official and prices posted in San Francisco than the field was going into the gate for Race 4 at Churchill Downs. This was a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. The first thing that jumped off the page was that the seven entered for the mere $10K had lost 120 plus times to go with their seven maiden wins. And nearly all of them had lost for a cheap tag like this. But Nordic Light had "only" been out ten times and had shown some run against $15K Turfway rivals first time winners, then had been a "within range" fourth for $20K at Keeneland last time out. On the drop with the best figures he was worth a bet. Tracked in fourth through the turn, moved to third turning for home behind the dueling front runners. Let loose in the final furlong he made the lead with 100 yards to go to edge under the wire the winner at a nice 2/1 price for my second Churchill winner.
Made a bold move in the Lost In The Fog Stakes at Golden Gates before my horse went down and was 2nd at 8/5 in the next at Churchill before finding the winner's circle again. It was the featured Grade 2 Santa Maria from Santa Anita going a mile and a sixteenth and CLEARLY it boiled down to either Bob Baffert's Adare Manor or her nemesis Big Switch as they'd been a head-bobbing 1-2 last time out. But for me, even though they both looked like they wanted the front, I thought Adare Manor was simply better. Broke sharply, got to the front without issue and ran around the track to score with authority.
After running 7th in a GG grass stakes it was time to test the new turf course in Louisville. Last spring and fall the course had been closed for all kinds of reasons when it just wasn't right. But it looked lush tonight as they headed to the gate for a 2-lifetime allowance going a mile and a sixteenth. Despite the fact it was a restricted event, I thought Chasing The Crown was worthy of a near Best Bet of the Night endorsement. He'd won over THIS turf course last May then wasn't seen until January at GP where he matched that Beyer when a good third off the bench vs. first time winners - in a race where the winner came right back to score. In his second start he was an even better 2nd, again behind a repeat winner who then ran third in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Keeneland. The new lifetime best figure and going third off the shelf for trainer Mike Maker and jockey Luis Saez sealed the deal for me. Put down the "big bet" and then sweated it out as he was trapped near the back, behind horses AND between rivals to the far turn. Split rivals to burst into the clear and then it was all over as he swept by as much, MUCH the best. It wasn't so much about the payoff at short odds as I'd been spot on in my analysis that he was indeed worthy of the play.
Missed in the California Derby at GG before they went into the gate for the 7th at Churchill. It was a MSW event going the Derby distance of the classic mile and a quarter trip. NO ONE had ever been that far so you had to think creatively! I thought it was a fair play to take Klaravich Stables and Chad Brown trained Peak Popularity based on the connections and the bloodlines. He was a son of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner and UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn - who'd been my bet in the Kentucky Derby that year....paired figures and run well in both of his career starts. He was fifth on the turn while a bit wide, fourth into the lane. Just kept grinding away making up ground and was J-U-S-T up in time for my fourth win under the lights in Louisville.
Missed at Santa Anita before it was time for the big race at Golden Gate Fields, the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile on the turf. To me I thought So Cal shipper Balnikhov was a likely winner. As I noted, he was "far from a mortal lock and likely to be a shorter price than his chances warranted," but I bet the horse most likely to win in my opinion and with jockey Umberto Rispoli enjoying a banner day I was even more inclined to bet this guy. If you were willing, as I was, to toss the last out Gr 1 miss then his last four tries at this mile trip had been in a listed stakes and Gr 2 & Gr 3 company which resulted in two wins and two 2nd place finishes by a nose. He was dead last into the turn, began to make up ground on the turn. Split rivals, got clear in the lane, accelerated to the front and then it was a head-bobbing finish - AGAIN - where I truly was uncertain until the result was posted.....WINNER!
I'm having just a remarkable day! At Santa Anita there had been a few turf sprints and when they USED to card them they were all down the hillside, But today they'd been on the flat course until the finale. I didn't see anyone that's a standout but I put a lot of stock in DRF analyst Brad Free's opinions. And he made Carmen Miranda his BEST Bet of the Day. Good enough for me. Pinned on the inside behind the front runners as they swept down the hill to the top of the lane before the front runner drifted six or seven wide opening a gigantic seam for 'Carmen. Shot through and won for fun. And best of all, the price was $8.60 enabling me to cash for nearly $45.
And now we're on to Derby week. My plan is to play all the live races this week from Churchill to get "in the groove" for the big weekend!
Social Media this week.......
Much like last week I had multiple interactions with my online peeps. The first of which came during the week when former Gulfstream handicapping hottie Acacia Courtney announced her Twitter account was back up and running, and I replied to which she reacted to my post.
Next, former student Jen posted a photo of her with her girls at Girl Scout camp and she too reacted to my comment.
My good gal-pal at school and hopefully my "track assistant" Jen and I exchanged comments as I know she's anxious to retire.
There's been quite a bit of rain of late and I reached out to new gal-pal buddy Jen Correa and asked her to "work her magic" to which she replied back to me :)
My really good gal-pal Karli Barnett messaged me back after I shared the news that I'd been asked to deliver an online presentation for Viking cruises.
On Friday I was scrolling through Twitter and saw that a race at Gulfstream had been won by a horse named Chloe's Toy which made for the perfect opportunity to reach out to cutie Chloe Nelson and she replied back to me.
Friday before we left for the arena the local CBS-4 Evening news did a story about our Panthers and I reached out to my girl Lauren who reacted to my comment.
Morning hottie anchor Jayce Birch reacted to my comment about her very cute outfit....she does always wear the most adorable outfits.
After the big win on Friday I watched the post game and I've become a really big fan of Panthers' analyst Jessica Blaylock. She is so sincere in her passion for the boys and her reaction to the big win Friday was nearly as cool as watching the game itself.
While at the game Friday I reached out to my best-ever gal-pal Kimmy and sent her the pic of us at the game. She replied minutes later. Do miss having her around.
Several years ago Kim's assistant volleyball coach was our pal Michelle. She and her family have since moved to North Carolina but we have stayed in touch. She's always been so sweet and is quite attractive as well.
Saturday afternoon as I watched the races on Fanduel TV and America's Day at the Races I noticed that Acacia Courtney had not been on throughout the afternoon so I reached out to her and asked if she would be on air during the "Downs After Dark" races from Churchill. She replied that she would. I told her I'd be watching from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" and before the big race, my BEST Bet of the Day I asked if she too thought the filly was just way too good for this field. And minutes later - while on the air - she replied back to me.
Finally, on Sunday there were terrible storms north of us, including a tornado sighted near the weather station where gal-pal Jen works. I reached out to her and she replied back.
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