Racing From The Netherlands

 Saturday April 8:  Bluegrass Day at Keeneland

Yesterday, Saturday April 8 was a big day of racing with key prep races for the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.  My initial thought was to handicap Keeneland - with their Grade 1 Bluegrass as the feature, Aqueduct - with their Grade 2 Wood Memorial featured, and Santa Anita - with the featured Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  But once we were in Europe I was not nearly as interested in devoting that much time to racing while "on holiday."  So, I then decided I'd bet just a couple of the big races based on horses I was familiar with.  Finally, on Friday we had all afternoon off basically so I decided to handicap both the Keeneland and Aqueduct cards, and play a single race from Santa Anita.  You probably are wondering......if this all took place on Saturday April 8th, why is this part of the journal for Sunday April 9.  How many of you are clever enough to know the answer....raise your hand!  Well, it's because when racing began at around noon on Saturday it was dinner time here and by the time the big races were running it was after midnight (on April 9th for me) here in Europe.  So I didn't know how the races turned out until today!  I'd selected fourteen races that I was interested enough to place bets on through my TwinSpires account (using this platform for the spring-summer-fall after using Xpressbet for the winter meet where my rewards card is good AT Gulfstream).  In three of the first five races I'd made a selection I was my pick run 2nd.  11th and 5th in the other two, the latter the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct as a prep for the Kentucky Oaks where the winner was $55 payoff for a $2 bet - shades of the Gulfstream winter meet!  Is this how the spring & summer are going to go I wondered.  I was fifth in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland after setting the pace through the opening half mile.  The sixth at Aqueduct was the Grade 3 Bayshore and my choice pressed the pace, got briefly to the front but was outfinished and ran fifth.  Back at Keeneland I ran a non-threatening fifth in the Grade 3 Appalachian on the turf for 3yo.  My first score of the day came with my BET of the DAY in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland which marked the return to racing of Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champion Goodnight Olive.  It seemed clear to me that trainer Chad Brown had circled this date right after winning the World Championship prize that cinched the Eclipse Award for Best Female Sprinter.  Broke sharply but settled back off the dueling leaders to the turn.  Shifted three-wide into the clear on the turn and inhaled the front runners to open a clear lead turning for home.  Drove home while holding the closing runner-up safe with my big bet on board and I had my first winner of the spring season!

By the time my next selection was heading to the gate I was fast asleep after 11 pm Europe time.  So I went to bed with nine races in the books and a single win (at least it was the BEST of the Day), three seconds and a third.  A less than auspicious start to the spring season.  We were up around 7 am Europe time (which would be 1 am EST) and the first thing I did was check the Florida Panthers score - won for the SIXTH straight time and with two games remaining are in control of our own destiny to make the Stanley Cup playoffs.  It just may come down to the final game on Thursday which will be home, on the day we arrive.  We have plans to go directly from the airport to the game!  At any rate the second thing I did was check the racing results.  Next on the sheet was the 9th from Aqueduct, an entry level turf event.  Veronica Green from the Chad Brown barn was my pick.  These kind of allowance races are difficult to win, but the prototype of the most common winners is one that won their maiden early and then have a good effort against winners.  'Veronica had been a just miss 2nd in her turf debut (after two "ok" dirt sprints), then won decisively.  Her first try against winners had been a sharp try 3rd in the Winter Memories Stakes behind a filly that exited to run well in a Grade 1 out west.  Made her on the turn some four wide....five wide into the lane and drew off through the final 16th for my 2nd win.

Next up was the big one at Keeneland, the Grade 1 Bluegrass, a key Kentucky Derby prep.  Todd Pletcher's Taprit Twice has looked very sharp in an allowance win and then in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  But (a) his speed figures didn't give him a decisive edge and he's got a habit of starting slowly and rallying from far back.  I felt he was clearly the one to beat but didn't have enough of an edge to make him more than a minimum bet.  Moved early to reach fourth heading into the far turn.  Collared the leader turning for home and the two dueled the length of the stretch before edging clear late to score for my third victory in a row!

The tenth at Keeneland was another entry level allowance, this one a six furlong sprint for 3yo.  Nearly always when a thoroughbred wins at first asking, going wire-to-wire and draws off impressively they are over bet in their first try against winners.  Facing pace pressure and a faster early pace almost always does them in unless they are very talented.  Such appeared, at first glance to be the case with Brad Cox's Squire Creek who'd drawn off impressively at the Fair Grounds with a stakes-like speed figure of 89.  I was debating about the bet when I read the DRF analysis and the handicapper noted that trainer Cox was 13/9-1-0 with second time starters in a dirt sprint....and he'd won five straight like that of late.  And over the last two years he was 5/3-1-0 with that kind of runner here in Lexington.  Right to the front to a daylight lead and held the field safe by a little more than a length under the wire....make it four in a row!

Finally missed when Dreamlike ran 3rd in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial for 3yo on the Derby trail.  Closed out the day with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks.  Interestingly, this race - because it was out west went off at nearly 8:30 EST which was 2:30 am here in Europe.  Bob Baffert's Fazia was unbeaten in four straight starts, but her Beyer figures were not anything special.  Still, she apparently just loves to win.  Tracked the leaders to the far turn, swept to the front and turning for home opened up to win by nearly a pole while under wraps.  She's on her way to the Kentucky Oaks for sure!

So for the first day of the Spring season I was 5-for-14, an excellent 35% but I had fallen short of breaking even by $1.50.  BUT WAIT......now that I'm using TwinSpires for my online betting, they often offer promotions with a money-back if you run 2nd or 3rd.  Such was the case with most of the stakes races around the country today.  In both the Grade 3 Bayshore at Aqueduct and the Grade 2 Wood at Aqueduct my horses qualified (3rd in both) - so I got my money back!  So the final stats for the day saw me CASH tickets in 7-of-14 selections, a superb, 50% and showed a flat bet profit of a little under $10 on the day!  WHOOO HOOO.

There are some good races at Keeneland next Saturday so I'll have some bets as we now look forward to the first Saturday in May!

Social Media this week.....

Even though I was in Europe I was still in touch with some of my gal-pals on social media.  One of the great things about social media for sure.  Channel 10 morning anchor Jayce Birch always shares her fashion and often will comment back when I remark about her sharp looks.  Noting that I was admiring her outfit from the Netherlands drew a reply.

And I had two separate conversations with gal-pal Kimmy who was in San Francisco via text while sailing through Europe this week.