Pre-BC Weekend

 October 28-29:  Empire Showcase Weekend

It was an "interesting" weekend of racing as I didn't watch a single race live despite being home for the weekend.  On Saturday my picks from closing day at Keeneland and Belmont at the Big A went off as I was at the birthday party for our grandson Anthony and when we were at the early puck drop from the Florida Panthers vs. Seattle Kracken game.  Then on Saturday as the races went off from opening day at Churchill and for the Empire Showcase races in New York, Kim and I were watching the Miami Dolphins play on TV.  I leave Monday for a week and change visit to Ohio where I'll be during the big Breeders' Cup World Championships!  Here's how the weekend played out..... despite there being several stakes races on my sheet from both Keeneland and Belmont (at Aqueduct) I was only able to win three races, none of which were in stakes events.

On Sunday I had five picks from Churchill including two stakes events and I had EIGHT selections at Belmont where it was "Empire Showcase Day" - all in stakes events.  Didn't cash a ticket in Louisville and only three in New York.  I won't use it as an excuse BUT the track was sloppy at both places and that MAY have impacted my results.....though I did hit the board with ELEVEN of the thirteen races I bet on!

Social Media this week.....

The "most fun" I had this week online was when the Panthers game Thursday was set for a 7:45 pm faceoff.  So I messaged gal-pal Lauren Pastrana - as you can see, at 5:11 pm just after she went on the air - that with the late puck drop I could watch her on the news and go to the game.  She wrote back, while on the air less than ten minutes later that it seemed like a "perfect" plan - news, snack, game, and news.  So when we got home, a little before the 11 pm news I messaged her back that the plan had "worked" to perfection.....and she reacted to that.  Also exchanged two other messages with her this week.  :)

This week Kim and I received our luggage tags and initial information for our Disney Christmas cruise.  Our "adopted daughter" Jillian commented how jealous she was and I told her I would take her if she could fit in the suitcase....to which she replied she'd begin stretching to make that happen.  If only :)

My Slovakian gal-pal Petra and I had a long "conversation" of about 15-20 minutes on FB messenger this week.  Always fun to keep up with her.

Hottie handicapper Acacia Courtney celebrated her birthday this week and so I reached out to her....and got a heartfelt thank you minutes later :)

Sunday morning I noticed gal-pal Teri was NOT on the anchor desk for the CBS Miami news.  Then later in the day she posted she had been in the hospital.  I happened to catch that post just two minutes after she put it on FB.  I immediately wrote to her and she wrote back her appreciation moments later.

Opening Night - FSS Stakes Day

 Week of October 21

Thursday night was Opening Night for our Florida Panthers and the night could not have been more exciting as Kim and I joined nearly 20,000 fans in the sold out arena to watch our 'Cats take down the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1.  Note that the final goal came with 0:01 second left in the game so the intensity was out of control until the final horn sounded.  As we left the arena we both remarked how playoff-like the atmosphere had been tonight.  Cool to be back into hockey!

I had initially looked at the stakes calendar for Saturday and there really wasn't anything big going on and I didn't know any of the horses by name.  Seemed like a pretty nondescript weekend of racing so I thought I'd just enjoy college football and going to the hockey game Saturday night.  But by Friday morning I had really run out of things to keep me occupied, so I looked again.  I noted that it was a "big day" at Gulfstream with two Florida Sire Stakes on the card and a third stakes as well.  I thought to myself that during the Championship Season from December through the end of March I play many days where I've handicapped a card of "just races" and have three or four bets....and that's entertaining enough for me.  So I downloaded the Gulfstream card and began handicapping.  But the time I was through with the eleven races I'd found EIGHT runners I was interested in enough to bet.  One scratched before racing began so I had seven races to play.  I passed both the first two races and in the third, a MSW for two-year-olds, the question was simply were you willing to take the short price on Kozem who was listed at even money in the program.  As I noted in the analysis - it's not just about how your horse has run/will run but it's also about who they are running against.  It was a cheap $12.5K maiden claimer with a par value of only 45 on the Beyer scale.  And Kozem had posted figures of 44-46-46-and 43.  MORE than good enough to win.  But she'd missed four times.  Hmmmm.  Then you looked down the page - the "BEST" Beyers of her rivals were 13, 0, 0, 29, and 23.  And the two first time starters came from barns that were a combined 1-for-9 with those.  One of them COULD surprise but it seemed unlikely.  Kozem went right to the front, held a narrow advantage through the opening quarter and when let loose lengthened the margin with each and every stride scoring by a geared down nearly double digit distance.

The fourth was an all-weather route under starter-optional claiming conditions carrying a $30K option.  I thought there were several different ways to go, but I liked the chances with a bit of a price on the lightly raced Bedtime Story.  Only been out five times and was a perfect 4-for-4 on the synthetic here.  AND she had wins over an entry level group with a $75K optional tag and against older, $50K conditional runners.  Listed at 6/1 I thought it was fair value.  Left the gate at nearly 3/1 and dueled to the far turn between runners.  Cleared off in the late and held off the late runners as the wire came just in time.

The fifth was the race where my pick scratched and in the sixth I went with Mish who was a multiple graded stakes placed runner.  The nearly white runner had two wins locally that both earned big figures and six of his twelve running lines were in stakes races.  He clearly was the "best and fastest horse."  But as the adage goes, "pace makes the race" and Mish appeared to be a "need to lead" front runner in a field with several of those.  I truly did NOT believe he'd be able to clear off and wire the field so my bet was he was simply the best horse and if he had to press/stalk a longshot, he'd be able to do so.  I nailed it.  Pressed the pace into the far turn, took command and drew off willingly..... THREE FOR THREE!

The seventh was an obvious "this or that" race between the top two rivals.  I went against the morning line and post time favorite off the layoff.  He won, I faded to fifth.  The eighth was the first of three consecutive stakes races, the Florida Sire Stakes Susan's Girl Stakes.  R Harper Rose was the morning line favorite and both the on-air handicappers made her a single in their Pick-6 sequence.  The "issue" was, as it always is in these FSS events, getting the added ground.  CLEARLY 'Rose is one fast filly who had romped in her debut as the favorite and then was the easiest of winners in a two-lifetime allowance.  BUT both of those were at 5 1/2 furlongs and today's stakes event was at seven panels.  Still she looked awfully tough and she was being pounded in the WIN pool and all the multi-race pools so I upped the bet to a triple investment.  Pressed the leader through the opening quarter then took over willingly.  Edged to a daylight lead turning for home and widened the margin through the final sixteenth.  The final time, especially the "come home fraction" wasn't all that dazzling so it will be interesting to see where she lands this winter when the out of town good fillies show up.

The ninth, the Gil Campbell Memorial was my "Best Bet" even though Dean Delivers had never won at the one-turn mile.  But of the combined 103 running lines on the page his LAST FIVE Beyers beat 100 of them.  AND he was dropping out of a third in a Saratoga Grade 1 to this listed event.  Seemed obvious and he was another single on the one GP analyst's ticket.  Pressed the pace into the turn and faded through the lane.  Go figure.....that's why they run the races!  In my final bet, the second of the two FSS stakes, this one the Affirmed for 2yo colts, Bentornato looked even more formidable than did R Harper Rose.  His two Beyers were a pole faster than anyone else had earned and were "paired" which would often indicate a move forward.  Adding to the confidence level, the DRF's Mike Welsch is a "price play" kind of handicapper and he picked Bentornato saying he seems to be "the real deal."  I'm not sure I've ever heard him "say" that.  Was just a head off the leader from his outside post through the opening half mile.  Took over and finished strongly - his time translated into almost ten lengths faster than the winning race by R Harper Rose in the filly race.

And so for the day I finished a big time 70% and change with five wins from seven picks and a flat bet profit - made even more "impressive" by the fact that my "Best Bet" had lost!  I guess it was a pretty good idea to go ahead and play Gulfstream today :)

FSS Sire Stakes Day Highlights

Social Media this week......

Clearly the highlight of my interactions with my "friends" came on Monday with my gal-pal Lauren Pastrana of CBS-Miami.  We've had a "thing" about morning coffee and she's told me before that she enjoys her hot morning coffee, on her porch, in a hoodie.  So last week when the forecast was for chilly temps I reached out to her and she responded she was looking forward to this weather change.  So when it WAS very chilly I sat on the porch with MY hoodie on I took a pic and sent it her.  She replied back to me.....cool (to me) that we can "chat" about things other than what's on the news.  We also had interactions about the start of the Panthers season and opening night.

I have probably three girls who would rate as "all time favorite" former students, one of them I do not hear from often is Tatiana.  And with the weather turn I reached out to her and we had a "conversation."  I do wish she were local so we could hang out on occasion.  

Last week I wondered, and entered this in my journal, if my friendship with Osiris gal-pal Petra might have run it's course.  And just when I was thinking that might be the case she reached out to me.  And I was so happy for her that she was starting her vacation.

The second of the two "favorites" is Mandy.  And she does get a bonus point because she and I have been close for much longer than any other former students.  She reached out to me - which in and out of itself was very cool - to show me her Disney holiday scrubs.  And we had, as we frequently do, a long "conversation" via text.

Gal-pal Karli and I also had interactions and like with the top one with Lauren Pastrana, the fact that Karli took the time to respond to me personally meant a lot.

And finally, heard from weekend anchor Teri Hornstein as well.

October 14

 Jilly's Weekend

So you're probably wondering, and rightfully so, why is this week's journal "dedicated" to our "adopted daughter" Jillian who's pictured on the big screen TV at the Sunrise Simulcast Center.  To find out the answer to that question, you'll need to keep reading :)  After back-to-back weekends since our return from the most amazing trip to Ancient Egypt & the Nile River Cruise saw me score at nearly 50% I wondered if the same kind of results would follow today.  It certainly seemed that way as I cashed on three of the first five bets on my sheet.  Following a fading 10th at 5/1 at Laurel I had my first bet at the soggy Belmont at Aqueduct course in a 2yo maiden claiming event carrying a big $50K price tag.  The question here however was had trainer Todd Pletcher and ownership partners Michael Repole & St. Elias Thoroughbreds given up on $300K sales purchase Antenna?  Debuted at Monmouth which typically means they are the "second team" from the Pletcher barn and she was a just-miss 2nd.  This was encouraging enough to send her to Saratoga where she was completely outrun.  OK, maybe not as good as we thought - BUT the winner of that race was Just FYI who returned to win the Grade 1 Frizette and is headed to the Breeders' Cup.  So why after those two are we dropping all the way down and in for a tag?  Broke sharply and went right to the front, taking pressure all the way.  Put that pace rival away only to be confronted by the second choice, but Antenna would not let her by.

Well beaten in the first of the Laurel added money events before the first at Keeneland was at the post.  This was "one of those about seven furlongs" event - which is always curious to me because they DO card "just 7f" races.  This one was a non-winners of two-lifetime with a $30K price tag in the conditions.  As I noted in my analysis, when handicapping it's NOT just about your horse, but about your horse IN COMPARISON to the field.  So I was willing to look past the 1-for-14 resume that Stand For Freedom brought to the table because she was the only one who'd raced at or above the par for this level.  Add in that the others in here who'd run close to par had done so last time out in a maiden win, so I felt they would NOT run back to that figure.  And finally, it was worth noting that the lifetime best Beyer earned by 'Freedom had come HERE that was double digits faster than par in an OPEN race.  Last time out was in a much richer $75K nw2L at Churchill.  Sat mid-pack through the opening quarter mile then made a sharp middle move up the rail to reach contention approaching the far turn.  Moved three wide into the clear turning for home and opened up to win convincingly.  AND at a generous $9.32 payoff.

Kudos to Belmont and the racing office as not only did they card the featured Grade 2 Sands Point early in the card (Race 2) but despite the steady rain they ran it on the grass to hold the graded status.  Unlike Gulfstream management which is uber-quick to pull the trigger and move races from the grass to the all-weather.  Supposedly the "new and improved" Belmont - currently under renovation, thus running at Aqueduct - may have a synthetic track as well.  Will be interesting to see if they too move races quickly to the fake dirt when the weather breaks.  At any rate, this race - restricted to 3yo fillies - looked to me to be between Todd Pletcher's Soviet Excess and Euro invader Eternal Hope.  The Pletcher filly had run two races in her last two starts that beat all 72 figures posted by the rest of the field.  And she would be closer to the front than Eternal Hope - who certainly was the "class play" - who'd won the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks going further when rallying from the back some two dozen lengths out of it.  But with the weather, 'Soviet scratched.  OK, in a smaller field I'll gamble that 'Hope won't have traffic issues.  Well that concern was immediately a non-factor as the rider got her out of the gate quickly and into a stalking position just a couple lengths off the leader into the first turn.  Between runners all the way to the top of the lane she accelerated to the front, dueled for a sixteenth of a mile and edged clear late with my "late change bet" on board and I'm standing at 3-for-5 on the day!

Vying for the "story of the day" came in Keeneland's second race which I did NOT win and didn't even hit the board.  But it IS why you see our girl Jillian on the banner.  It's not completely uncommon that I'll see a horse bearing a name of someone I know but in this race, a maiden special sprint for two year olds, Wesley Ward was sending his first time starting filly out against the boys and she had several sharp works.  I probably would have just watched because Ward's two-year-olds do the most damage in the spring here, not the fall.  BUT the name "Jilly's West," which bears the nickname we've given "our girl Jillian" made her too hard to resist.  I messaged our hot looking "step daughter" and shared the pick to which she reacted enthusiastically.  Pounded down to even money I thought MAYBE she was the real deal.  Set the pace into the lane and I thought maybe she'd kick clear, but at about the furlong pole she tossed in the towel and faded to fifth.  Still, a good story!

The fourth in New York was another turf stakes but by now the weather had worsened and it was taken off the turf.  Again my top choice scratched and we were left with a field of four.  Listening to the NYRA analysts and looking at the board it seemed that Scottish Star would have little trouble scoring here, and she didn't have any issues at a short price, making her my second "audible" of the day to score.

I had decided to play Gulfstream today as I seem to do well there despite the lesser quality this time of year and the many races on the all-weather which I have not had the best of luck on over the winter.  Last week I scored with a Saffie Joseph first time starter in a MSW race where none of those with experience looked formidable.  Such was the case again with Beastly Speed.  The early DRF line of double digits was way off I was sure.  Right again Mark-O.....went off at 6/5 as he stalked the pace into the turn then drew off as easily best.

Battle Cry was my "best bet" at Gulfstream in a starter optional claimer going two turns on the all weather.  She was the prototype of the "NOW Horse" having won three of her last four......seven wins showing on the page, and a 4/3-1-0 resume on the sythetic.  Certainly Chick's Shadow was the class of the field but she was coming off a layoff and I thought she'd be "short" today facing a hot horse.  Battle Cry saved ground all the way through the far turn but was walled off by five horses in a line turning for home.  No where to go until approaching the furlong marker she finally angled out three wide, kicked into high gear and surged past late.  WHEW, close but she was best.  Cashed for nearly $50 on the bet.

Dornoch looked to be a potential two-year-old star in the making at Keeneland.  A sharp second in a Saratoga sprint led to him being the favorite - as a maiden - in Monmouth's Sapling Stakes going a two turn mile.  Second but NINE clear of the show colt he was going two turns with maidens here today.  I thought his only rival was posted wide in the 12-hole.  But when that one scratched I upped the bet.  Right to the front, took pressure while being confidently ridden, and took off emphatically through the short stretch for the win, my seventh on the day.  

At this point I was still nearly .500 on the day (7-for-16) but then I skidded through the late afternoon going 9/0-3-1.  Had just a couple of those four on the board runners scored it would have been a good day.  But I ended the day on a high note when the "BEST Bet of the Day" scored in the finale at Keeneland.  First Mission had won the Grade 3 Lexington last spring but had not been out since.  But a sharp bullet work told me he would handle the break in this allowance test.  Much like Battle Cry earlier he was screaming for somewhere to go through the far turn but did not have a seam.  Finally got outside into the clear, surged and J-U-S-T up to win.  AND I'd upped the bet from $20 to WIN to $30!  Finished the day with "fair numbers"...... AND with the TwinSpires "Keeneland Bonus" promotion I added nearly $15 to the bankroll to cut into the small loss for the day :)

Social Media this week.....

Multiple "interactions" this week with several of my online pals.  Evening news anchor Lauren Pastrana and I had three such connections.  First, early in the week the future weather forecast called for a cold front to pass through late Sunday and drop the Monday and Tuesday morning temps into the 60's and even 50's.  Lauren and I have a "coffee thing" that we've chatted about previously and she once told me she likes having her hot coffee on the porch in the morning, in a hoodie regardless of the temperatures here in So Florida.  So when that forecast was announced I reached out and asked "who's ready' for hot coffee in a hoodie in the morning....and she quickly (note the time stamps) replied!  Then on Thursday she was sporting her "wavy hair look" and I commented, adding it was opening night for the hockey season.  And finally she looked "pretty in pink" on Friday in honor of her being the MC for a walk for breast cancer on Saturday morning.  She not only liked that pic & post but retweeted it out on her own page :)

I will be interested to see over the next week or two if I share any "conversations" with my new gal-pal Petra.  From the first day we agreed to be Facebook friends on board the Viking Osiris through the middle of last week we exchanged messages every day.  And let me say, I get it.....she works long hours every day serving the guests on board with never a break between guests.  And who am I, an older fellow who she spent a couple of days with and now we're thousands of miles apart and with a seven hour time difference.  BUT, that being said we DID have "conversations" every day and suddenly over the last several days......no replies, not even a "like" for my comments which I got on all of them previously.  So we'll see.....hoping it's just that she's really tired and/or busy and not that she's sick or that she's reconsidered our friendship.  But early in the week we did have two conversations.

Early in the week I was on a walk and I saw a school bus.  For what ever reason it made me think of my gal-pal from Cypress Bay, "Cookie" (Jennifer Cook).  She has hung on to the idea I gave her to retire and be my track assistant for years.  So I texted her asking how her last year before her long awaited retirement would arrive this coming summer.  And she immediately replied that she may retire early, and note how she AGAIN refers to becoming my track assistant.  I'd love to have a track pal, especially a gal-pal :)

Former "Coach Kelly" from Oasis High posted a pic of her out with a girl friend and both sporting, in her description a "hot red dress."  She is such a cute girl and I'm appreciative that we've stayed pals since going our separate ways.

A new "news girl" that's become a favorite of mine is CBS-Miami weather gal KC Sherman.  Twice this week we exchanged interactions :)

KC's sidekick on the weekend morning news is anchor Teri Hornstein who is also new to my friends list.  She reacted to my morning shout out.

Karli Barnett's usual Saturday Facebook Live chat was moved to Sunday and I only had time to jump on for a minute.  The early conversation was about the cold front sweeping through the country and down into Florida.  I greeted her and mentioned the upcoming home opener for our Panthers - she remarked how exciting that was.

Finally, my long-time and most favorite gal-pal Kimmy and I continued to exchange messages, though not daily like during the Egypt trip.  And when she posted new pics of she and her kids (and husband) I commented and nearly immediately got a reaction.  That little girl is JUST adorable, like her Mom!

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