May 3 - 4: We're Sailing The Mediterranean!
Well, I've played the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby cards in several different ways......live at Churchill Downs twice; at Calder Race Course and Gulfstream Park; and from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" virtually at home. But this year Kim and I found ourselves not only missing part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs but sailing on Viking's "Empires of the Mediterranean" itinerary over Derby Week! So this meant that all of my handicapping for the weekend - and several of my racing pals that follow my picks had asked - while sailing through Greece. Had them done and posted by Thursday night!
As you can see from the photo above, it's a "tough life" to be me on Derby weekend. Such a distracting view while handicapping the races, and a fine glass of wine :) As Kentucky Oaks Day dawned Kim and I were exploring Corfu, Greece. On the day of the races, because of the time differences, the early post time of 10:30 am in Louisville coincided with 4:30pm in Greece. And with last bet being in the 12th (no bet in the 13th and final race) with a 6:27pm EST start time, this would be at 1:30am in the morning.....which I'd never be able to stay up for. Luckily the Internet signal was strong enough that I could watch both race replays and the live feed with minimal interruptions. I passed the first and the fourth. In the second and the third Sedona and Arthur's Ride didn't score. The former was a 5/1 shot in a mile and a sixteenth entry level allowance on the main track. The $2 Million daughter of Curlin had been impressive to win at first asking going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. I thought she'd be closer to the pace here but was near the back to the far turn, fanned seven wide into the lane and was a much the best of the rest second while no threat to the winner. The latter was a distant 8th as the 6/5 favorite. Race 5 was the first of the big stakes events, this being one of the biggest races on the national calendar for older fillies and mares, the Grade 1 La Troienne going 8 1/2 furlongs on the main track. For me, Idiomatic was an obvious choice. Under typical circumstances, the fact that she'd not been seen since early November when winning the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff might have been a concern. But in my mind, I didn't think that trainer Brad Cox would bring his champion back in this big Gr 1 event, on Oaks Day where there's a huge spotlight on the racing if she wasn't well meant. She pressed the 12/1 front runner into the far turn then took a narrow lead. Closers came to her on the inside and the outside and now we'd find out if she was "short" and needed a race or was geared up. Took off and won by daylight as MUCH the best for my first win, and first stakes victory of the weekend.
Race 6 was the Grade 3 Unbridled Sydney going five and a half furlongs on the turf. With a crowded field this looked to be a wide-open affair. I landed on Ova Charged but I had some questions. First, she had been beating up on listed foes at the Fair Grounds and I thought this field was way tougher than anything she'd seen in New Orleans. Second, she was a speedy front runner and there looked to be other "I want the lead" types that could soften her up. Conversely her last two starts, both daylight wins, had earned Beyer figures of 102 and 113. If she ran to anything close to that, she would be the winner. I'm a Beyer believer but I wasn't convinced she was a strong selection so I went with the minimum. The crowd was convinced and sent her off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite. Broke a step slowly - that can't be good - then hustled to the front dueling all the way to the top of the lane. A wall of horses were coming and it would have been no surprise for her to have been inhaled by any of them. But no way....she dug down and edged clear in the final strides for my second win, and second stakes victory.
Came right back to win my third in a row in the Grade 2 Alysheba on the main track with First Mission. This guy is lightly raced but when he runs, he always delivers, with the exception of two back in the Gr 1 Pegasus World Cup when he just didn't seem to fire. He's run well here, just missing in the Grade 2 Clark Handicap as well. While it seemed reasonable that maybe he wouldn't fire his best today, he looked good last time out winning at Oaklawn and if they all ran to their best he would win. Tracked a nearly 30/1 front runner while saving ground in third to the far turn. Came out into the clear with dead aim on the leader. Collared him at the sixteenth pole and drew off handily. Having a pretty good day my friends!
Missed on the next three. Surprisingly didn't fire, 6th at 3/1 odds. In the Grade 2 Eight Belles for 3yo fillies Impel went off at a generous 9/2 price. Stalked the pace in fifth to the turn, caught the leader but could not catch the nearly 7/1 filly that got the jump on her, but was a good second. Then Hard To Justify pressed the pace to the far turn in the Grade 3 Edgewood on the turf for 3yo fillies, but faded to 9th at 2/1 odds. At this point I just couldn't stay up any later and went to bed. As soon as I got up I pulled up the Churchill replays to watch the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. I picked Thorpeda Anna to win but as I noted, I thought it was as likely that a "go figure" winner would emerge as one of the "logical" win contenders. I made a minimum bet on 'Anna on the basis that (a) she'd already run well at Churchill Downs, and (b) she'd won Oaklawn's Grade 2 Fantasy off a long layoff. She had more of a right to move forward than any of the others - none of which had impressed me as a rising star and/or having the ability to handle the demanding 9 furlong trip. Thorpeda Anna went right to the front by had company as three of them were speeding through the first turn and to the far turn. The fractions of :22 and change and :46 and change, while under pressure made me feel like there was little chance I'd be able to last to the wire. But in a big surprise, once the field turned for home, despite the pace, 'Anna opened up! She increased the margin to more than two lengths to the furlong pole and was widening as they came to the wire! WOW. Hit the Oaks and three others to close the day at 40% winners. I'll take that any racing day!
Kentucky Derby Day began much like Oaks Day only today we'd arrived in Kotor, Montenegro. The time difference was cut back to six hours from seven as we left Greece, but still to stay up for the Derby would be being up well past midnight.....no happening. You can see from the panoramic photo above that we had another dazzling day as we climbed W-A-Y up to the top of a mountain, through 25 switch backs on a very narrow road with steep drop down views to reach this point where we had a magnificent view of the harbor - that's our ship on the right! The opener was set to go off at 10:30 am in Louisville which would make it 4:30 here in Montenegro. So I was able to watch both this race and the second on the live feed before we headed out for dinner. The opener was a six and a half furlong sprint under maiden special weight conditions. There were eight in the gate for the race and seven of them had previously raced. As I remarked, any of those COULD have won, but NONE of them impressed me. That pointed me to the lone firster in the field, Pure Force. Not only did he have that angle, but the Brad Cox debut runner showed sharp works. And those works had drawn the comment from the DRF analyst, "....it would appear this horse can really run...." All that was good enough for me and I doubled the bet. Pressed the pace of the 3/1 second choice all the way to the top of the lane and then gradually drew off to a daylight score. Cashed for nearly $30 to start the day!
The second race was a REALLY interesting handicapping puzzle. As I told Kim afterwards, the thing about handicapping races that's "good" is that everyone has their own opinion and can back their opinion with cold, hard cash. Bill Mott's Scylla looked much the best to me, but not in a typical manner. Sure, her earlier Beyers would win this second level allowance for fun, and she was dropping out of stakes company. Mott is a conservative trainer, and has all "good" horses so you know he's only going to run them where they have a chance. Well, Scylla had just run sixteen days ago - that's a VERY quick turnaround in today's world of racing, especially for top quality horses. So the fact that Mott WAS doing this told me she was kicking down the barn door. The on-air analysts used this same information as a negative saying the quick turn around and her figures on the slight decline were evidence that perhaps she wouldn't run big today. Not so fast my friend! She was shuffled back early and was fourth between runners into the turn. Asked to go and she immediately blitzed by the leaders, opened up and drew off in a dazzling performance! Cashed for more than $20 to run my record to 2-for-2 to start off Derby Day.
Kim and I went to dinner and upon our return I had two race replays to watch. First, in Race 3 it was an entry level allowance for 3yo. Mindframe had been dazzling in his debut for Todd Pletcher. But today he would not only face winners for the first time but go two turns for the first time. That's a lot to ask. But his monstrous 103 Beyer on debut told me he could be something special. Went right to the front but was hounded by a 30/1 longshot. As heads turned for home we were about to find out if the jump from maiden to allowance was too much, especially after being pressed the entire first six furlongs. Nope. Opened up and drew off impressively and I was cashing for almost $15 to run my record to three-for-three.
The first stakes race was the listed Knicks Go Stakes going a one-turn mile. I wrote that we'd know right away because both my choice and the likely favorite would want the front. Strong Quality went right to the front and posted sizzling fractions of :22.1, :44.3 and 1:09 flat - certainly too fast for a mile race right? Opened up to mid-stretch and then lasted to the wire at a nice 5/1 price.
in the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Coppola ran huge at 15/1 and was leading turning for home which had me thinking of a big pay day, but it was good handicapping without a pay out. You CAN'T win them all! Next up was the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff going seven furlongs. Vahva and Alpha Star had quite the rivalry going. Star had got the best of her at this 7f distance on Opening Weekend at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Madison. But I liked Vahva today. That race was off a layoff, she'd blistered a bullet work out and was unbeaten here under the Twin Spires. Vahva tracked the leaders in third, saw Alpha Star grab the lead turning for home and then blew by to score going away. Cashed for almost $30 and I was sitting at a pretty FIVE-for-SIX on the day.
Three of the next five bets were second, two in photo finishes, sigh. And then I went to bed. Got up to watch the Derby and saw Fierceness prompt the pace to the top of the stretch as the tepid 3/1 favorite and then back up through the lane. Disappointed but not surprised. Then in the finale Discreet Mischief was a best-of-the-rest second. But here was the lesson "learned" (again) from Derby Day - a win, is a win.....pays the same as a MSW vs. Gr 1. And finishing five-for-thirteen was an excellent day of handicapping. What made this even better was that Twin Spires had run a "Bet Back" promotion that you could get up to $10 back if your horse ran second or third. So over the course of the weekend's racing I'd had SIX runners run second leading me to "cash" for an additional $55. It was a very profitable weekend - and made even more enjoyable being on the cruise ship floating along through the Mediterranean!
This week on social media.....
While traveling we had contact with SOOOOO many of our friends and family. Most of them gave us a "like" or a "look" on our Facebook and Twitter pages, and a good number each day looked at the daily photos. But a few reached out with personal messages that made me feel so good that they were enjoying sharing our adventure with us virtually. Two of them were former Cypress Bay girls Kimmy and Chloe.
I was also happy to have a "conversation" with my girl from our Egypt cruise, Petra.
But the best was my gal-pal Lauren Pastrana from CBS-Miami. It's been nearly three weeks now and Lauren and I have been in daily communication. I've really enjoyed that and feel like I'm a "real" friend and not just some fan who's reaching out to her. On the first day when we arrived in Athens I sent her a photo of Kim and I on the Aquavit Terrace having lunch and she wrote a message back to me, not just a "like." Following our day in Athens I sent her several pics and I liked the fact that the photo she choose to "like" was the one of me in the Panthers jersey celebrating our win in Game 5 to advance in the Stanley Cup playoffs! The next day she saw my pics but didn't react. Then on Wednesday I wrote to her and told her it meant a lot to me that she was enjoying the photos and that I enjoyed going through them to pick out the best ones for her. And THAT was the part of the message she "liked." She reacted to our third day photos from Olympia and then on Day 5, Sunday, I sent here a 2min video highlight of our boat trip to the islands off the coast of Croatia. Within minutes of me sending it I got a return message :) I didn't include it in the photos here, but Friday, because I was up late watching the races I saw the first fifteen minutes of her Friday newscast....grabbed a screen shot of my girl and the next day sent it to her, which she also "liked."
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