Memorial Day Weekend

 May 23 - 27

It was a marathon weekend of racing, as I played Thursday's Twilight races and then had a nine hour extended day of races from seven different tracks Saturday.  Continued on Sunday, and finished by playing three holiday cards on Monday.  Lots of stories to tell, so let's get to it!

Thursday - Twilight Racing From Churchill Downs & Woodbine

Both Churchill & Woodbine had late afternoon starts, and with nothing better to do I handicapped both those cards on Tuesday & Wednesday and began playing those races as we approached early evening.  Had no luck through the first five races, with only a single runner-up finish to "cheer" about.  But in the sixth in Louisville I liked Willow Bend to score in a claiming level sprint.  The track was sloppy with a lot of weather - even had a weather delay for a while earlier in the card.  The only other time this gal had run for a tag it had been under "beaten" conditions like those tonight, but unlike the $50K price tag tonight here, she had run for a big $62.5K tag and was a best of the rest 2nd.  Sat patiently in fourth, in the clear to the turn.  Took over effortlessly under jockey Tyler G and ran off to score with my triple investment on board.  Suddenly I'm only behind a little bit!

Off the board in the Woodbine finale before they headed to the post for the Churchill program ender.  This maiden claiming sprint at the extended six and a half furlongs looked pretty wide open to me.  But several years ago I'd been in Las Vegas for a handicapping convention and attended a "Long Shot" seminar."  One angle I've used several times with some success is the "Lone pick" angle which says in the handicappers' selection chart, if ONE handicapper puts a horse on top and none of the others even list that horse in the top three, that's the pick!  Well Beelieve Her fit that description AND was the one guy who'd picked her best bet of the day.  Good enough!  Pressed the leader to the far turn, and I was thinking, "I have a legitimate chance here!"  Took control and opened up turning for home.  Was getting tired through the long Louisville stretch but held on.  And at the generous 4/1 price I cashed for over $50 and now, despite going only 2-for-8, I'd had a profitable night!  OHHHHH the track :)

Saturday May 27

Saturday was "A DAY" - with a story that will long be remembered by me from my MANY handicapping/racing adventures, and will serve as yet another reminder of a lesson I've learned since playing the races regularly .... stick with the program, it will all be good in the end!  Why do I say this?  Well, because I had the time and little else to occupy myself I handicapped SEVEN tracks for the day and had FIFTY selections on my sheet.  First post was at 12:40 and until 3pm I cashed one, count them, ONE ticket.  OH MY.  Dug myself such a hole.  And the one winner, Foggy Note in Gulfstream's 3rd was only a $3 payoff.  But as the runners continue to disappoint I thought to myself, this is one of two things.....either a reminder that racing is a difficult game and having a day like this makes you appreciate the winning days; or......at some point I'll start cashing and the day will turn out "OK."  But one thing I was nearly certain of - I would never, ever be able to dig myself out of the red for the day and make any money.  Just stick with it and cut the losses for today, I said to myself, by the end of the month it will all be good.

The fifth at Gulfstream was a $75K overnight handicap going five furlongs on the turf.  And as I said in my analysis, truly the only reason that Xy Speed would not win was "Track Logic" because he'd was in career form with numbers that beat everything on the page.  And the only "logical" alternative was a horse he'd just beaten soundly.  Pressed that one (who was the 5/2 second choice) into the turn, then moved by effortlessly and drew off handily to score with my triple investment on board.  And kudos to me for sticking with the betting plan!

The next two bets produced two more wins to run the winning streak to three.  Speightfulelection swooped by his rivals at Monmouth to win going away as the favorite, but it was a boost to the bankroll when at Delaware, Sir Wellington also swept by on the turn and drew off.  That was because I'd tripled the bet on this guy and his $7.20 mutual payout meant I'd cash for well over $50!

Ran second at Churchill, BUT kept the "cashing" streak alive as it just so happened to be one of three races that carried a special "bet back" promotion on the card :)  In the 6th at Monmouth, Antigravity had all kinds of big red flags / "Don't Bet Me!" warning signs, but I ignored them.  Why, because even without a win since 2022 and plummeting in class today, the fact that leading rider Paco Lopez was on board said the connections were looking to pose for pictures today.  Right to the front - took pressure all the way to the furlong pole before drawing off willingly as the favorite.  That's five in a row!

The feature in New York was the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge for 3yo's.  Charlie Appleby's Legend of Time had been beaten at Keeneland last time out, but I thought he was due for a big rebound effort.  I'd also thought the same thing about another Godolphin/Appleby runner last weekend at Churchill and he'd failed to produce.  So rather than go "all in," I went only with a double investment.  He trailed the field into the far turn and looked to be crying out for run, but had no where to go.  Finally with only a furlong left he muscled between rivals into the clear, surged and was up in time!  Make it SIX STRAIGHT!

In a second level allowance, turf sprint at Churchill, ten-year-old Bound For Nowhere was my top pick.  Maybe he'd lost a step, but he looked best in this spot.  Sat the ideal trip in fourth behind the leaders, split runners in the lane and drew clear to score at a near $9 payoff - seven in a row!

The featured stakes at Gulfstream was the Big Drama, a sprint going seven panels on the main track.  You COULD make a case against Octane, but for me, dropping out of four graded races in his last five starts, cutting back in distance and the fact that his LAST EIGHT Beyers beat nearly everything on the page was enough to warrant the wager.  Toss in a fourth-best of 88 works recently and I thought he was a solid win proposition.  Pressed the 4/1 leader into the turn while obviously well in hand for the rider.  Asked for his best and he rocketed to the front and drew off by daylight - make it EIGHT now.  What a comeback!

Even I was a little surprised when I ran third in Monmouth's Cliff Hanger Stakes - you mean I'm NOT going to win all the rest of the races today?  But I AM going to win more......Conspiracy Fact was JUST up in time at Delaware....then second in Louisville.  The Distractor was an easy winner at Monmouth - then two more runner-up finishes.

There was a lot of chatter amongst the "experts" on FanDuel TV about the 9th at Churchill, a first level allowance.  After a debut win on the west coast, Nay V Belle had immediately been sent two turns in a Grade 3 - too much, too soon.  Came back with a just-miss effort in another sprint.  Those two sprint efforts made her a clear winner today I thought.  Could not understand why she wasn't one of the top picks by any of the analysts.  But apparently I know more than they do :)  Fifth to the furlong marker, split runners and burst through to win at better than 5/2.  I'd had so much confidence I'd made her a triple investment so I was cashing for nearly $60!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO.

It was "California Gold Rush Weekend" at Santa Anita with stakes races Saturday-through-Monday and the third was the state-bred Thor's Echo Stakes.  The Chosen Vron was as close to a "mortal lock" as you could get in racing.  The 16-time stakes winner's LAST EIGHT Beyers beat everything on the page, and his SLOWEST Beyer could be topped by one figure on the page, that earned by a rival he'd beaten FOUR TIMES previously.  Pressed the longshot leader to the turn then cantered home under wraps in a "paid public workout" as my BEST Bet of the Day.

Almost as certain as The Chosen Vron in the Thor's Echo, Kings River Knight looked ominous in the Crystal Water Stakes at Santa Anita going a mile on the turf.  He was not only Brad Free's BEST of the Day but looked to be the LONE SPEED.  Right to the front as the prohibitive favorite and walked with it impressively with my "prime time" play on board.  That's WIN #13 for those of you counting!

The finale in New York was maiden claiming turf event.  Jhirsch, carrying the moniker of the legendary editor of the Daily Racing Form looked very strong in his first start for a tag....and he was, running away by almost a pole through the stretch.

We'd reached 6pm and first post in Minnesota (dontchaknow) at Canterbury, meaning all we had left on the selection sheet were those races and the remainder of the card from So Cal.  The Fran's Valentine Stakes at Santa Anita going a mile on the turf for the fillies & mares was next.  The "parking lot" post position for likely favorite Stay and Scam was a concern, but she looked best despite that.  Quick out of the gate she pressed the leader to the far turn while in hand, then drew off easily, never being threatened for the last quarter mile.  Oh I'm having a very good second half of the day my friends.

I'd missed in the first two CBY races I played but Channel Won in Race 4 was the first added investment play of the evening from Shakopee.  Off a three month break I liked this eleven time turf sprint winner to roll from off the pace.  Off slowly, but for a closer that wasn't a big concern.  Circled the field on the turn and mowed them all down for the first win at "The Park" on the evening.

The ninth from Santa Anita was yet another stakes race, this the Melair for 3yo fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the main dirt track.  There used to be about five or six public handicappers that their opinions mattered a lot in my selections, but only Brad Free of the DRF who mans the west coast races is left in that role.  I've learned over the years how to read between the lines with most of his comments, and let me tell you, when he said "Grand Slam Smile should be tough to beat" that was about as solid an endorsement as he will give other than making someone the "BEST" of the day.  The filly boasted a career box of 6/4-2-0 and looked to add to the win total here.  Prompted the 15/1 longshot leader to the far turn, eased by without being asked and drew off with authority.

Picked up my second and third wins at Canterbury to close out the long day as first Birdie Be Gone was indeed LONG GONE in the 6th and Haunted Haze drew off by a pole in the finale there.  After the miserable 1-for-14 start to the day, my final numbers were 19-for-47.....that's over 40% my friends....and a clear profit of $3.05.  As I said at the top, considering the start, that's the best $3.05 profit I've ever had!

Sunday May 26

Only two wins, but still had "the story" of the weekend when the feature at Santa Anita was the Grade 2 Santa Margarita.  Adare Manor just breath takingly good.  Right to the front and jogged around the track embarrassing her rivals as my BEST BET of the Weekend.  Also had By It's Absence at Monmouth earlier in the day.

Monday May 27:  Memorial Day

With today, Monday, being a holiday, there were several tracks open, and I opted to play Monmouth and Churchill, and to look at the multiple stakes at Santa Anita as they wrapped up their Gold Rush weekend.  Started off on a pretty hot streak scoring with three of the first five picks.  Cooke Creek took pressure from the get-go but wired the Louisville opener in a gritty effort.  Amidst the stormy weather in New Jersey Spunforfun came off a maiden win to be much the best against open claimers in an off the turf event.  And last year's Gr 2 Ba

Taxed

Skidded through the next seven races with a second and three times third before World Record easily went wire-to-wire in the Churchill Downs finale.  Shortly thereafter came the first of two big highlights on the day.......

When I went through the past performances of Santa Anita's third, a six furlong turf sprint under entry level allowance conditions, I didn't see anything that really interested me.  BUT....you always have to utilize all the tools at your disposal when handicapping.  So I read through Brad Free's comments.  He pointed out that Virat had won off the layoff at this same distance in a starter allowance off a three month layoff three back.  Today....off an identical three month layoff, at the same identical distance he looked like an ideal "trainer pattern" play.  And listed at 6/1 on the morning line he would easily be the "UPSET SPECIAL" of the day.  Right out of the gate I knew I had a real chance as he pressed the leader while seemingly well in hand.  Made "the move" on the turn and opened up in the lane.  Was getting tired in the final 200 yards but had plenty left to score.  And the best part, his price floated up to a big 7/1.  Paid $16 so with my confident double investment I cashed for $80!  WHOOOO HOOOOO.

I missed on the final three races at Santa Anita, the three graded stakes of the day, but my picks ran 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd in races I thought were all toss-ups.  Prior to that sequence was what I thought would be the "story of the day" and was my "BEST Bet of the Day."  Two years ago John Sadler had trained the brilliant Flightline who won all six career starts including a eye-popping 20-length win in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.  Well today Sadler was unveiling Flightline's half brother, Eagles Flight.  That in and of itself would be interesting, but the works for this colt had been sensational.  I read prior to the day's racing Sadler commenting that he was an "exciting prospect and we're looking forward to getting him going."  I read another comment that told me that the connections thought he genuinely was the "real deal."  I opted to make him my "prime time" best of the day thinking IF as good as advertised we'd never, ever get as good a price as we would get today....and he was a likely favorite on reputation alone.  Sure enough he was 3/5 with minutes to post...then 4/5 as they went in the gate.  Broke a little slowly and was in the back half of the field.  Not real concerned because his best races will almost certainly be in route affairs, so I figured he'd NOT go wire to wire, but settle and rally.  Into the turn, jockey Flavian Prat sliced through runners, got into the clear then split two runners in front of him with dead aim on the legitimate leader.  Inhaled that one with ease and drew off commandingly living up to the hype and the promise.  Oh, this one is going to be a good one!  And lucky for me, the bettors let him float up to better than even money so I cashed for over $40 on my 29th winner of the marathon weekend of racing!

I was able to add to my winning numbers with TwinSpires ' Memorial Day "Boost" offering a 15% odds boost on any winner you picked from either Churchill Downs or Santa Anita!

With this bonus promotion I was able to turn the $6.85 loss into a $10.57 cent profit!  Gotta love those promotions, eh?

And with the conclusion of racing Monday, the first two months of the Spring Racing Season for 2024 was in the books.  "They" say if you pick 30% winners and cash for $1.91 on every $2 you bet, you're doing better than 93% of the horseplayers.  My numbers put me in the "elite handicapper" status :)  It's a good start to the Spring/Summer season for sure!

Social Media this week.......

I must say, and I've made comments to this end previously, but I DO have several "all time favorites" from my former students, but far and away it's Kimmy who has always been my MOST favorite.  When she lived here in So Fla as a young career woman I so very much enjoyed when we would get together.  We had the best conversations because I just felt that she "got me" and genuinely cared for me, as I do for her.  I miss her a lot.  We do keep in touch, but it's relatively infrequent - but this week we had several exchanges.  The first (which I paired up with pics from our first Fla Derby together) came when I shared how I might get on the news with a story about travel tips.  Ironically just a couple days later I noticed on FB that it had been nearly 250 days since we'd been together and so I reached out without telling Kimmy what the significance was.  Not sure if she looked it up, my guess is not, that knowing me she KNEW that I'd only ask if she knew the significance of a date if it applied to the two of us being together.  And then Saturday on FB memories it came up from when she visited me at school - wow we both look so much younger!  Finally we exchanged messages Sunday during the Panthers playoff game.

Danielle was a gal I worked with at Cypress Bay and while we didn't interact a lot together we did know one another relatively well.  Just recently we connected on FaceBook and how ironic, this weekend she and her husband were at a destination wedding......in Santorini, Greece!  I immediately reached out and commented we'd just been there, and we exchanged a couple of brief messages.

Our gal-pal Michelle texted with me and then with Kim and I about her girls' weekend getaway and the playoffs.

My most favorite country DJ Chloe came to mind when I was handicapping the Sunday races and saw that my top choice in Monmouth's 8th was named "Take Charge Chloe."  I had to share and she immediately wrote back.  Tried hard but second best in a near-photo finish.

I miss Karli Barnett on the weekend news and I especially miss being able to communicate with her regularly.  But she saw one of my recent messages and wrote to me this week.  Felt bad, again, that her live chat was Sunday evening when we were at the Panthers game, so I missed talking to her again.

Interestingly enough, I thought this week I'd have little contact with gal-pal Lauren Pastrana, but it was a flurry of activity over the weekend that saw us "hook up" multiple times.  Wednesday before the first game of the Eastern Conference Playoffs I sent a pic of her and wished that she could watch the game.  And we WON Game 1 I captured her pretty smile on the 11pm news and messaged her on Instagram that this was the smile we were looking for :)  Two days later before Game 2 the CBS local news did a nice piece on our 'Cats and I expressed my appreciation - got a "like" in return.  Then towards the end of the week I reached out to Lauren and explained that in about six weeks we'd be off again on another adventure.  I told her how much I enjoyed picking out "best pics for Lauren" and that she seemed to enjoy following along.  I finished by posting a preview pic for the upcoming Rhine trip and asked if she would like me to continue to share.  The response was a very positive one, so we'll be in daily hook-ups while then next adventure goes on - and I'll be sending her preview pics starting at the end of next week.  Lauren was off the anchor desk on Friday but posted a reel that seemed to indicate she was working on another investigative piece.  I commented, she "liked" it.  And finally, Sunday evening Lauren posted a series of reels showing her having a fun Sunday with her two kids.  It's one of the things I like best about Lauren - and I think it's one of the big reasons I so enjoy her newscasts.  I find her so real and believable because she shares what she is like as a real person in her real life.  I got a big smile when she showed how competitive she was, beating her young son in ping pong.  You GO Lauren!