August 16 - 18
It was a workman-like weekend of handicapping with just a couple of big stakes on the calendar. The one big stakes-laden day was at Woodbine where it was Kings Plate Day. But unfortunately, despite starting the day with partly cloudy skies, in between Races 1 and 2 there was a torrential downpour which led to a 45 minute delay. They got off a few more races before the downpours came again and again leading to cancelling the big day's stakes races and rescheduling for next Friday. It was also a cool social media week for me :) Here's how the weekend played out......
Friday started off in what was a prelude to a very good week of handicapping. The opener on the Jersey Shore was a maiden claimer going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. I started the analysis by saying that "all handicapping logic" pointed to my pick, First Reign. But the problem to consider was that this filly had already been out ten times AND had only hit the board twice. And nine of those ten were against state-breds. BUT those were all MSW state-bred events. The one time she faced open company came at this same level, here and she was second best. So IF you were willing to look past the ten tries...... Heading into the backstretch she lagged behind the field, but began gaining ground through the turn. The rail opened and she shot thru - burst to the front and drew off. But the best news was that she went off at a big 5/1 and paid a very generous $12.60 so even with my minimum bet I was off to a good start by cashing for over $30.
The next four races saw me fail to hit the board (4th, 4th, 4th and 5th) and so the day's bottom line came down to the finale where Lloyd looked to be a short priced favorite in a starter optional claiming event going six furlongs. It was a race only requiring a start for $6.25K so consistency is NOT a hallmark of this level of racing. Lloyd had run away with a $5K sprint three back earning a big 84 Beyer. Then facing far better than he faced today he'd run back-to-back photo-finish 2nd's with nearly identical Beyers. Any of those three made him a standout. Because of the nearly 5:30pm post time I'd sat down to dinner with Kim and watching our TV programs so I tuned into the replay a while later. He pressed the longshot duo into the far turn then swept by three wide and drew off handily, much as I expected. What I did NOT expect was that somehow he'd gone off at better than 2/1 and I cashed for over $15 on my minimum play so I finished 2-for-6 on the day but with a flat bet profit :)
Saturday started off quickly as I scored with three of my first four selections. In the King's Plate Day opener North Warden was being well bet prior to post time so I upped the bet in this Maiden Optional Claimer to a double investment. Pressed the leaders to the top of the long stretch, drove to the front and was hard urged to the wire while keeping the closers safe. Ran second at Saratoga before coming right back with wins at both Monmouth and Gulfstream. In the second at Monmouth, much like the Toronto opener, Made Birdie was being strongly bet so I upped the wager. Was last of six, but only about a half dozen off the lead into the far turn of this 6f claiming event. Swept up three wide and dueled to the 16th pole before drawing off. Then the best of the early bets came in the 2nd at Gulfstream, a maiden claimer sprinting five furlongs on the synthetic. Blue Spearman was a clear choice for me. This was a basement level, $12.5K maiden event and EVERYONE else in here had lost at this level before - he'd never been this low. Immediately he gets an edge. Top trainer Saffie Joseph was cutting the price tag in half AND adding blinkers. Put that with the fact he showed the strong win angle "Early Speed, Class Drop" by showing speed for a half mile last time out and he was a clear pick for me. Split the early pace rivals before they'd gone the opening quarter and opened up. Drew clear by daylight and never looked back. The very best part.....went off at a big 9/2 so I cashed for over $50! WHOOO HOOOO I'm off to a very good start!
Missed on the next two and Woodbine was going through a rain delay before in their third, Ready Shakespeare looked like a solid pick, TO ME in this $25K nw2L sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs over the Toronto synthetic main track. Debuted with a win at this same distance here then was sent long on the turf against allowance foes. Back to the winning distance and surface. Was a bit concerned that they immediately dropped not only in for a tag but a 2L tag, still.....Last heading into the turn, oh, this is why he was being up for sale. But then he began gathering momentum picking off horses. He was third turning for home and gradually gaining....one last surge and UP IN TIME. And much like the pick on Blue Spearman his odds were a delightful 3/1 with the big $8.80 payout generating a return of nearly $45 for me :)
The next fourteen picks produced but two winners - YIKES.....it was a long stretch, especially with the extended delays at Woodbine and then finally their cancelling the program. The two wins came when Cadron Settlement burst through at Gulfstream to score late and when Call Me Harry wired a 2nd level allowance, turf sprint at Saratoga.
Two of the losses in that skid came in the two graded features at Saratoga. In the Grade 2 Lake Placid for 3yo fillies on the turf, odds-on favorite She Feels Pretty was poised to score turning for home but could not hold off a late charging price play. Then in the featured Alabama, Todd Pletcher's Candided came calling for the lead but could not quite get by....back-to-back photo finish 2nd place finishes :(
But in the final two stakes of the day I cashed! In the Grade 3 Islin at Monmouth I literally chuckled out loud as Subsanador made a sudden blitz to the front on the far turn. Why? Well this South American import had gone 0-for-3 in North America with two graded stakes fourth place finishes and a photo-finish 2nd in a Grade 1. Conservative trainer Richard Mandella would have had plenty of good races to choose from out of his own barn at Del Mar, but shipped across the country. That in and of itself was a big clue. But sealing the deal was the fact that "Money Man" Mike Smith gave up all his west coast mounts to fly to the Jersey Shore to ride. Once Subsanador hit the front he was long gone. My triple invest returned nearly $40.
The Gulfstream feature was the Sheer Drama Stakes. And as I said, you could look at this race and say MAYBE a price play jumps up to win, but the most likely scenario was that the hot as a firecracker Beth's Dream would extend her three-race winning streak and score again. Tripled the bet and watched her "duel" while well in hand to the far turn, then draw off in little more than a public workout. Cashed for nearly $30. And closed out the day in the 11th at Saratoga when Yo Daddy blew by on the turn of a 1 1/2 turn dirt mile event and drew off as easily best.
For the day I'd gone 9-for-24, a solid near 40% win rate. AND I'd cashed for a clear profit on the day. BUT.....TwinSpires was running not one but two promotions. The on-going $10 Bet-Back on 2nd and 3rd place finishes in selected races and a special "15% Profit Boost" on Woodbine winners. The two photo finish 2nd place finishes in the Saratoga stakes and the two Woodbine wins added another near $30 to my bankroll so that for the day I had a final profit of almost $60. WHOOOOO HOOOO.
Social Media this week.....
Former student Jen posted pics of a beach weekend with her cute daughters that drew a comment from me and a reaction in return.
It's hit-or-miss with my most favorite of all time Kimmy, but she's told me over and over again to keep messaging her. Working full time with two little ones I understand my text are not a high priority but she's so genuine when she reaches out which she did in reaction to my back-to-school pic, and we had a nice "conversation."
Similarly, former CBS anchor Karli Barnett seems really busy and I don't hear from her often but Sunday she saw my preview posts and responded :)
I'd not heard from our "Egyptian girl" Petra in a while but she and I chatted this weekend. She lost someone close to her and she apologized for not being in touch. Nice to catch up with this sweet girl.
My two gal-pal anchors at CBS-Miami Lauren & Teri both reacted to a message I sent them Sunday when I looked up the very cool-ish temperatures we are going to enjoy on our trip.
Heard from Lauren twice early in the week, the most "shocking" was when she shared she does not like pumpkin spice coffee. WHAT???? I responded to a story they did on big cruise ships and she reacted to my thoughts. Try not to read too much into it, but the facts are what they are.....because I know Lauren knows the morning crew I sent her a message about the back-to-school photos and I put together a photo of the four morning peeps with those inset. Then I added my photo. She sent the "like/heart" in response, but note she sent that to my message and to MY photo....not the one of the team - likes me best? :)
Teri and I had quite a week "together." Started with a standard "like" to my Br Isles preview post, which she faithfully liked and/or commented on EVERY single day. Then when she posted a photo of a sunrise on the beach on Facebook and I replied, she responded back to me. I got a big smile knowing that (a) she recognizes me on all three social media platforms and (b) referred to me as "my world traveling friend" - how sweet is that? She appears to like pumpkin spice coffee judging from her initial reaction to the coffee coming out this week. And unlike everyone else who reacted to my back to school photo, Teri added the "OMG I love it" comment :) But the most interesting and most appreciated interaction this week came on Saturday. I tuned into the news as she was anchoring and sent a pic of my frozen cappuccino (the very bottom pic) and got a reaction. But then about an hour into the broadcast she messaged me, while on air, that she thought she was "messing up alot" today. For the next fifteen to twenty minutes - while she was anchoring the news - we messaged back and forth. And her reaction to my suggestion that we need to get together was a positive one! Would love to share some of my stories and have her tell me her back story and about her upcoming wedding plans.
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