November 1 - 2
It was a really good Breeders' Cup weekend for me! And for more than one reason! First and foremost, I hit a sharp 44% for the weekend AND made a profit. But what made it even cooler for me was that on Saturday I had my "Bet of the Weekend" fail to hit the board. That's almost always guarantees a losing day. But because of my other wins and the TwinSpires Bonus on two other races I came out a clear winner for the weekend! The first day, Future Stars Friday saw me with ten selections - all from Del Mar. The opener was an entry level AOC and I had mixed feelings about Red Flag. Typically in races like this I do NOT like to take veteran racers who exit high priced claiming events. But after being off for a year he came back to wire a high-priced $40K sprint and was claimed. Then won in an entry level spot like this, running for the optional tag with a "paired" figure - both of which would win for fun here. That gave him four career wins - more than anyone else in the field, and his two recent figures would beat everything on the page. I decided to play the minimum. Was near the back into the far turn, then suddenly blitzed by the field to collar the leader in the lane and draw off through the final furlong.
Race 2 was the first of the M-A-N-Y stakes at Del Mar this weekend, this one being the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. Twirling Queen had the right stalk & finish style to take advantage of the multiple front runners I thought. Had only been on the turf twice, but won both of them. The race played out almost exactly as I'd thought.....tracked in fourth behind horses to the top of the lane, shot through to the front up the rail and opened up by daylight. All of this I expected. But as they got to the final 200 yards the closers were coming.....oh so close, but I held on, WHEW!
Missed in the next three 2yo stakes before it was time for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. The winner here would become an early favorite for the first Friday in May's Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks. I've said many times that "the rule" in handicapping is there ARE NO RULES. And so I listened to my own advice here because I next to never like the 2yo winner of the NY preps for the BC as both the Gr 1 Champagne and Gr 1 Frizette go a one turn mile. So not only do these two-year-olds have to face other accomplished runners, and always have to ship out of town. BUT they also must go two turns for the first time. In spite of this I thought Brad Cox's Immersive was the one to beat. What made this NY winner my choice was after she won the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga - coming from off the pace, Cox cleverly sent her to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Alcibiades which, unlike the Frizette, IS around two turns. She'd come from a stalking trip to draw off impressively and that was enough for me. Tracked the leaders in 4th and 5th through the far turn, launched a three-wide rally into the stretch and got to the front runners at the furlong pole. Found another gear and drew off as easily best. AND she was my first "added money" play of the day - though not quite "prime time."
The next race, the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf DID have a "prime time" bet, and Aidan O'Brien's Lake Victoria was my BET of the Day for "Future Stars Friday." You always have to take into account some conflicting factors with Euros like this. In addition to this race also being for lightly raced juveniles, the Euros will be going the "wrong way" around the track AND having to negotiate turns as typically European races go right to left on a straightaway course. But also, Europeans are almost always a higher quality runner on the grass. Lake Victoria is the daughter of superstar Frankel so the bloodlines are there for stardom, and her last two wins had produced TimeForm figures that when converted to Beyers would beat all but one North American figure on the page. That both had been earned in Group 1 stakes - probably more competitive than any NA race made her the top choice. Add in international star jockey Ryan Moore and it was a done deal. Fifth riding the rails and saving ground into the far turn, Moore found a seam at the top of the lane. Burst through and shot to a daylight lead before drawing off convincingly! WHOOOO HOOOO. Missed on the last two BC stakes, but these two BC wins made me 4-for-10 for the day with a clean profit!
As Championship Saturday dawned, I had selections from both Belmont and Del Mar to keep me occupied. In addition, like yesterday, the Florida Panthers had an early puck drop from Finland AND with it being a Saturday in the fall, there was college football on the menu. I passed the late morning kick off race in New York before running 2nd as the 4/5 favorite in the Nashua Stakes. My next pick scratched so the second bet of the day came in the Artie Schiller Stakes going a mile on the grass. It looked to me like Running Bee would be very difficult to defeat. Four of his last six starts had produced Beyers of 96 or higher and won two of his last four, including a Gr 3 at Monmouth. Add in a sharp fourth beaten just over two lengths last time out in a Grade 1 and he seemed obvious. But that's the great thing about racing, you have to actually run the race! He tracked the 5/2 second choice out of the far turn and then the leader floated him even wider into the lane. Kicked in and the two of them went one head up and one head down to the final strides before Running Bee got his nose down on the wire, carrying my triple investment for the first win on Saturday.
Didn't like anyone in the Del Mar opener so my next bet came in a $12K claiming sprint at Belmont. Initially I had some concerns about Valenzan Day who had rattled off three straight by a combined 30 plus lengths. Why? Because you DID have to wonder about trainer Linda Rice DROPPING him first off the claim out of a daylight win for $16K back to this level. But, in my mind, if they won they would collect $15K in prize money, and if claimed for $12K they would essentially double their money with only one start. Right to the front, pressured into the lane before he opened up. But the closers were coming.....too late my friends as I cashed again for the second winner in a row.
Next on the selection sheet was the first stakes from San Diego, the Grade 3 Bayakoa going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Bob Baffert's Hope Road had run two nondescript races before moving into the Baffert barn. First time for the Hall of Famer had produced a daylight score. Right back against allowance foes and she aired again. Baffert stretched her to a mile in the Grade 3 Torey Pines and she tracked the leaders to the stretch then drew off in hand. Would have to negotiate another 16th of a mile today, but she looked just too good for these. She shot to the front and set very quick fractions of :22 and change and :45 and change. Could she last? Baffert's go-to rider Juan Hernandez had not moved a muscle and Hope Road appeared to have plenty left. The field closed in through the turn, but then Hernandez gave her the cue and she spurted away to another convincing win. THREE in a row!
The third at Del Mar was the Grade 3 Goldikova, named for the three-time BC Mile winner who I had in all three of her historic wins. Unlike those races where the champion was the clear choice, this race appeared to be a real toss-up. I thought that the "likely" winner was one of the Europeans, but I found it oh-so-curious that Raqiya was listed at a 6/1 morning line price after having finished 2nd in front of today's morning line choice. In addition, Raqiya had already notched four wins from just seven starts and the favorite only had a maiden win to her credit. I thought it was well worth a minimum play. She was a healthy price throughout the betting but came down a couple notches to 5/1 as they left the gate. Legendary rider Frankie Dettori took her right to the front. He was able to back the pace down through the opening half mile by running the second quarter in a pedestrian :25 seconds. Kicked away into the lane and won in a classic front end theft. But the payoff of $12.20 enabled me to cash for over $30 on my fourth win in a row.
The seventh at Belmont was a 2yo maiden special dash going the extended seven furlongs. My top pick scratched and before crossing off the race I read through my analysis. I had written that National Identity appeared to be the main danger after rallying from a wide post eleven to miss by less than a length in his debut. I noted that he was part of an entry that was being very well bet so I added him to the list. Was part of a four-way pace duel on the front end through the opening quarter, but he cleared off to lead them on a merry chase to the wire for my FIFTH win in a row. YOWZA.
The rest of the bets on my selection sheet were all stakes events, including the NINE Breeders' Cup races. I knew I wouldn't win ALL the races so when I ran 5th and 3rd with my next two bets I was still feeling pretty good about myself. The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint featured "the fastest horse in the world" in the odds-on favorite Cogburn. He looked easily best in here and he was the odds on choice. Right to the front and clear by daylight. But as analyst and Hall of Fame rider Jerry Bailey pointed out in the post-race commentary, why Irad Ortiz asked him to run on the turn instead of waiting until they were at least in the stretch or at the furlong pole probably cost him the race. He was already in complete control and had no need to open up. My guess he thought he'd win it right there. Instead, inside the final sixteenth he was swallowed up by not on but four closers, including the $69 winner, a European invader. BOOOOO to the Bet of the Day going down in flames. But kudos to me for "sticking with the program" and going "prime time" on the 3yo filly Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff. At first glance you could say, well what's so special about going all in on the favorite? I'll tell you what was......two back she'd run the race of her life when missing by a neck in the Grade 1 Travers against the colts where the winner was Fierceness, the moderate favorite for today's $7 Million Classic. She'd "bounced" out of that with a narrow win in the Grade 1 Cotillion with a lower than usual Beyer figure. AND she was facing older today. Hmmmm. As WWE star personality The Rock would say, IT DOESN'T MATTER!" Bounced out of the gate and took control. The stalkers were making their move through the far turn but jockey Brian Hernandez sat motionless until heads were turned for home. Gave the superstar filly the cue and she immediately shifted into high gear and left the field in her wake. EASILY best and a solid choice for "Horse of the Year" honors!
Ten minutes after the Distaff, the second of the 2yo stakes at Belmont went to post. I'd started the day running 2nd at 4/5 in the Nashua Stakes for the colts, and here I had planned to play the minimum on Stunner to win this one-turn mile event. The reason was that BOTH of the best figures on the page belonged to last out maiden winners. And I am NOT a fan of playing those kind of big figure maiden winners first time against winners, especially in a stakes, and at a new distance. But in this case, Stunner had earned a big figure on debut when second behind a very promising filly who'd earned a 94 Beyer in victory. Stunner came back as the prohibitive choice and earned a big 86 in her maiden win. As a daughter of Louisiana Derby winner Girvin she had the bloodlines to go longer. When the betting was strong in her support I decided to up the wager. She burst out of the gate and cleared the field in hand. Got a bit of a breather on the turn and opened up turning for home, lengthening her stride to score as much the best.!
In November of 2022 on Breeders' Cup weekend Kim and I were sailing to Antarctica with Viking Expeditions. That day I liked Rebel's Romance to win the turf and he came roaring home at nearly 6/1 odds to add to my winnings that day. Following that big effort he went on a three race skid, including two dull efforts in New York, so the connections opted not to try the World Championships. But this season he returned to form, winning four of five starts (with a 3rd at Royal Ascot two back) - and three of those wins were in Group 1 company. His TimeForm figures were nearly the same as in 2022 and I loved that the connections prepped with the same Group 1 in Germany this year as he'd used in 2022. I knew he would not be the "other European" which has often led me to price scores in the Turf, but I also thought he was a very likely winner. Pressed the 50/1 front runner to mid-turn, took over willingly and opened up to apparently be long gone. But in the final 16th the closers were quickly making up ground....but the wire came first and I had my eighth winner on the day.
The final five Breeders' Cup events only produced a second and a third - both of which meant I'd get my money back thanks to the TwinSpires "Bet Back" promotion. So for the weekend my totals looked like this:
Wednesday, while in Ohio I'd written to my friends at Viking TV and asked if my episode I'd filmed on the Viking Neptune at the end of August was still on for November 11th. I got an email back first that this was the case, then Thursday about an hour before I left my Mom's I got an email with the "final cut" of the episode and a 'teaser" clip which I was allowed to post online to show all my friends and family that have followed our adventures. Here's that clip......
Viking TV "Teaser"
Social Media this week......
Typically the only "human contact" I have each week other than with my wife at home is online, and as I've said before, I'm so grateful to my social media pals.....nearly all girls, go figure. But this past week while in Ohio I not only saw my Mom, sister, & niece each day but also got to visit with our good friends Mary Pat & Tom, and went to lunch with high school gal pal Gayla. So it was a LOT of social interaction for this fellow - and I thoroughly enjoyed it all. Amanda reached out to me on Halloween - she is such a huge Disney fan :)
I also had a few exchanges with gal-pal / country DJ Chloe while in Ohio......
Once I posted the "teaser" / preview of my Viking TV episode I sent the short video to my favorite three gal-pals (Amanda, Kimmy & Chloe) and all were duly impressed :)
CBS weekend anchor Teri and I had several exchanges this week. When she shared she was going to Washington DC (to see her fiancé I'm pretty sure) I sent her a photo of Kim and I on top the Capitol Dome when we were there and got an exclusive tour. I also shared a photo of me with my morning coffee at Sheetz, the Columbus morning coffee place. I really liked this pic of me and thought it would be good to share one of me as a change-up to always sending pics to Teri of herself. The final photo below is from Sunday when she was back on the morning anchor desk and we exchanged our "usual coffee pic" and I told her about the Viking TV "teaser."
As is typical with my pal Lauren Pastrana, most of the "conversations" are me reaching out to her and her "liking" what I've shared. When she posted about voting I shared I too had voted. I also shared the morning coffee pic, which she liked. And I wrote to her about how unique she is as an anchor after she did a short bit on a rainbow....makes her so "real" and believable in my opinion. Lauren wrote back to me in regards to her posting about the amazing number of candies they expected to give out on Trick Or Treat night, and I got a big smile when she commented on the "teaser" I sent her. She was the first I shared it with as she had emailed me some tips & suggestions for filming the episode. Finally, I loved her print dress she wore on Friday, and you'll note she wrote back to me when I said we'd be going to the FAU game.
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